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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Liangzhi You

Liangzhi You is a Senior Research Fellow and theme leader in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, based in Washington, DC. His research focuses on climate resilience, spatial data and analytics, agroecosystems, and agricultural science policy. Gridded crop production data of the world (SPAM) and the agricultural technology evaluation model (DREAM) are among his research contributions. 

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IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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Foresight and Policy Modeling

Karl Pauw

Senior Research Fellow

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Bio

Karl Pauw is a Senior Research Fellow in IFPRI’s Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit based in Washington, DC, where he co-leads the country modeling team, and works on a wide range of development and agricultural policy issues. He previously led IFPRI’s country programs in Accra, Ghana (2018–2020), and Lilongwe, Malawi (2013–2015), and served as a regional coordinator for the FAO’s MAFAP program in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia (2015–2017). He holds a PhD in Development Economics from the University of Cape Town, South Africa.

Publications

RePEc Profile

Publications

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Book Chapter

The agrifood system: structure and contribution to development goals

2024Diao, Xinshen; Masias, Ian; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James; Boughton, Duncan
Details

The agrifood system: structure and contribution to development goals

As countries develop, agrifood systems (AFS) are expected to evolve beyond primary agriculture. The earliest stages of development are typically characterized by subsistence farming; as agricultural productivity rises, farmers begin to supply surplus production to markets, which creates employment opportunities for workers in the off-farm economy. Rising rural incomes generate demand for more diverse products; this leads to more nonfarm activities such as processing, packaging, transporting, and trading. In the early stages of transformation, the agriculture sector serves as an engine of rural—and even national—economic growth. Eventually, urbanization, the nonfarm economy, and nonagricultural incomes play more dominant roles in propelling AFS development, with urban and rural nonfarm consumers creating most of the market demand for agricultural outputs via value chains that connect rural areas to towns and cities. The exact nature of this transformation process varies across countries because of the diverse structure of their economies and the unique growth trajectories of their various agrifood and nonfood subsectors. A focus solely on primary agriculture without an understanding of its linkages to off-farm components of the economy masks the importance of AFS to the overall economy and its potential contribution as a driver of development going forward. In this chapter, we first measure the size, structure, and historical contribution of the AFS to economic growth and transformation in Myanmar. Second, we assess the potential for AFS growth led by productivity gains in different agricultural value chains to contribute to development outcomes in Myanmar using the Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model (IFPRI 2023b). We measure AFS using national accounts and employment statistics to either track or simulate growth and employment changes over time. We disaggregate AFS into several value chain groups, which allows the analysis to offer a unique and useful perspective on the drivers of AFS growth and transformation. Finally, we discuss the implications of the recent crises for the future of the AFS and propose both short- and long-term policy recommendations to help steer recovery.

Year published

2024

Authors

Diao, Xinshen; Masias, Ian; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James; Boughton, Duncan

Citation

Diao, Xinshen; Masias, Ian; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James; and Boughton, Duncan. 2024. The agrifood system: structure and contribution to development goals. In Myanmar’s agrifood system: Historical development, recent shocks, future opportunities, Duncan Boughton, Ben Belton, Isabel Lambrecht, and Bart Minten, eds. Chapter 2, Pp. 19-42. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/155145

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Agrifood Systems; Development; Economic Growth; Economic Shock; Governance

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Book Chapter

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Working Paper

The agricultural transformation index

2024Diao, Xinshen; Jones, Eleanor; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James; Xu, Wenqian
Details

The agricultural transformation index

Agricultural transformation, in broad terms, is the process during which the agricultural sector develops from a low-productivity, subsistence-oriented sector to a modern, commercially oriented one. It typically involves adopting advanced technologies and more sustainable and efficient production practices, and results in higher agricultural productivity per worker, agricultural diversification into high-value crops, and rising rural incomes. Importantly, agricultural transformation is also seen as a catalyst for broader economic development and a structural shift towards industrialization in developing economies. Given the central role of agricultural transformation in driving such change, as well as its contribution to development objectives such as poverty reduction, improvements in diet quality, and environmental sustainability, it is useful to measure and monitor progress on agricultural transformation. This is the purpose of the Agricultural Transformation Index (ATI), a newly developed composite index constructed from four indicators of progress on agricultural transformation: staple crop productivity, crop diversification, agricultural labor productivity, and food system expansion. Together, these indicators, which are calculated from publicly available, global datasets, can be used to examine progress over time on global, regional, and national scales. In addition to being transparent and easy to interpret, the index can be updated annually as new data is released. As demonstrated in this study, the ATI produces a plausible ranking of countries and is highly correlated with indicators of overall economic wellbeing such as GDP per capita or household-specific welfare measures such as poverty or the prevalence of undernourishment. The ATI is not only useful for identifying countries in need of support from international development partners or tracking their progress on agricultural transformation but can also highlight specific areas of agricultural transformation where technical or investment support might be directed by governments or their partners.

Year published

2024

Authors

Diao, Xinshen; Jones, Eleanor; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James; Xu, Wenqian

Citation

Diao, Xinshen; Jones, Eleanor; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James; and Xu, Wenqian. 2024. The agricultural transformation index. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2275. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152282

Keywords

Agricultural Transformation; Economic Development; Productivity; Structural Adjustment

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Working Paper

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Journal Article

Dairy consumption and household diet quality in East Africa: Evidence from survey-based simulation models

2024Ecker, Olivier; Pauw, Karl
Details

Dairy consumption and household diet quality in East Africa: Evidence from survey-based simulation models

Dairy foods are an important source of essential macro- and micronutrients in household diets, and their consumption is associated with reduced malnutrition, especially among young children. Low dairy consumption in many developing countries is a justification for programs that promote dairy livestock ownership, help develop dairy value chains, or stimulate dairy demand. While several studies confirm the beneficial effects of such dairy-specific interventions on nutritional outcomes, the purpose in this study is to consider more broadly the contribution of dairy to overall diet quality. Our assessment of consumer preferences for dairy, coupled with simulations of consumption responses to dairy price and household income changes, provide quantitative evidence that can inform policymakers about the possible effects of public policies on dairy consumption and diet quality. While our analysis is based on data from Kenya and Uganda, both countries with established dairy sectors, our findings are relevant for other East African countries with similar dietary patterns and emergent dairy sectors.

Year published

2024

Authors

Ecker, Olivier; Pauw, Karl

Citation

Ecker, Olivier; and Pauw, Karl. 2024. Dairy consumption and household diet quality in East Africa: Evidence from survey-based simulation models. Food Policy 122(January 2024): 102562. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2023.102562

Country/Region

Kenya; Uganda

Keywords

Eastern Africa; Africa; Developing Countries; Diet; Diet Quality; Households; Nutrition; Modelling; Milk Products

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2023.102562 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Journal Article

Events

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

August 2 to 7, 2024

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists

The triennial International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE-2024), centred on the theme “Transformation Towards Sustainable Agri-Food Systems” is scheduled from August 2-7, 2024, in New Delhi, India. The conference offers a distinctive platform, providing a golden opportunity for the agricultural academic institutions and researchers to convene in person, exchange knowledge, and actively contribute to the […]

How do we prioritize agrifood system policies and investments? Insights from the RIAPA modeling system
IFPRI Program/Country Event

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June 12, 2024, 10:00 – 11:00 am

How do we prioritize agrifood system policies and investments? Insights from the RIAPA modeling system

Virtual Event: June 12, 2024 at 10:00am-11:00am EDT. In this webinar, we will demonstrate how RIAPA has been used to identify priority agricultural value chains that most effectively contribute to development outcomes.

Sudan at a Crossroads: Food Systems, Hunger, and Humanitarian Aid During Civil Conflict
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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May 2, 2024, 10:00 – 11:30 am

Sudan at a Crossroads: Food Systems, Hunger, and Humanitarian Aid During Civil Conflict

Hybrid Event: May 2, 2024 at 10:00am-11:30am EDT. This IFPRI policy seminar will reflect on urgent data, analytical, and policy needs to mitigate food insecurity and revitalize food systems in Sudan. This event will bring together researchers from IFPRI’s Sudan country program, conflict analysts, humanitarian donors, and country experts in a hybrid format.

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