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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Carlo Azzarri

Carlo Azzarri is a Senior Research Fellow in the Innovation Policy and Scaling Unit. His work focuses on the relationships among poverty, nutrition, food security, agriculture, the environment, production, and migration—analyzed at both micro and macroeconomic levels, primarily using quantitative methods.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Development Strategies and Governance

Kibrom Abay

Senior Research Fellow

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Bio

Kibrom A. Abay is a Senior Research Fellow in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit, based in Washington, DC. He is a development and agricultural economist with research interests including rural development, agricultural transformation, urbanization, food and nutrition security, and behavioral economics. Most of his research involves impact evaluation methods. Some of his recent studies examine the behavioral and inferential implications of mismeasurement in household surveys. Much of his current research focuses on Africa south of the Sahara and the Middle East and North Africa region. Before joining IFPRI, he worked as a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Copenhagen and the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). Kibrom received his PhD in Economics from the University of Copenhagen, Denmark.

Publications

Google Scholar Citations

Publications

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Journal Article

Fertilizer demand and profitability amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia

2025Assefa, Thomas W.; Berhane, Guush; Abate, Gashaw T.; Abay, Kibrom A.
Details

Fertilizer demand and profitability amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia

We assess fertilizer demand and profitability in Ethiopia in the face of the recent global fuel–food–fertilizer price crisis and other domestic shocks. We first examine farmers’ response to changes in both fertilizer and food prices by estimating price elasticity of demand. We then evaluate the profitability of fertilizer by computing average value–cost ratios (AVCRs) associated with fertilizer application before and after these crises. We use detailed longitudinal household survey data collected in three rounds, covering both pre-crisis (2016 and 2019) and post-crisis (2023) production periods, focusing on three main staple crops in Ethiopia (maize, teff, and wheat). Our analysis shows that fertilizer adoption, and yield levels were increasing until the recent crises, but these trends have been halted by these crises. We also find slightly larger fertilizer price elasticity of demand estimates than previous estimates, ranging between −0.40 and −1.12, which vary across crops. We find that farmers are more responsive to fertilizer prices than to output prices. Farmers’ response to increases in staple prices was statistically insignificant and hence not as strong as theoretically perceived. Households with smaller farm sizes are relatively more responsive to changes in fertilizer prices. Finally, we show important dynamics in the profitability of chemical fertilizer. While the AVCRs show profitable trends for most crops, the share of farmers with profitable AVCRs declined following the fertilizer price surges. Our findings offer important insights for policy focusing on mitigating the adverse effects of fertilizer price shocks.

Year published

2025

Authors

Assefa, Thomas W.; Berhane, Guush; Abate, Gashaw T.; Abay, Kibrom A.

Citation

Assefa, Thomas W.; Berhane, Guush; Abate, Gashaw T.; and Abay, Kibrom A. 2025. Fertilizer demand and profitability amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia. Food Policy 133: 102785. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102785

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Fertilizers; Prices; Farmers; Household Surveys; Maize; Teff; Wheat; Yields

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102785 Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Journal Article

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Journal Article

How good are livestock statistics in Africa? Can nudging and direct counting improve the quality of livestock asset data?

2025Abay, Kibrom A.; Ayalew, Hailemariam; Terfa, Zelalem; Karguia, Joseph; Breisinger, Clemens
Details

How good are livestock statistics in Africa? Can nudging and direct counting improve the quality of livestock asset data?

Livestock statistics in most low- and middle-income countries rely on self-reported, survey-based measures. However, respondents may have various challenges to accurately report livestock ownership. This study introduces a novel set of survey and measurement experiments to improve livestock statistics in Africa. We introduce two innovations to conventional livestock data collection methods. First, we address some of the sources of potential underreporting in livestock assets by introducing an explicit nudge to a random subset of survey respondents. Second, we arrange for direct counting of livestock assets by enumerators and local livestock experts. We demonstrate that self-reported data on livestock ownership suffer from significant and systematic underreporting. While our nudge affects only the reporting behaviour of households with larger stocks of livestock, direct counting increases total livestock ownership by 39 percent and the reported number of cattle by 43 percent. These impacts are evident at both the extensive and intensive margins of livestock asset ownership, as well as considering the number and value of livestock assets owned. Such mismeasurement in self-reported livestock data can lead to underestimation of the contribution of the livestock sector to national economies. Furthermore, direct counting generates important spillover effects to livestock species not explicitly counted in the survey. We finally show that underreporting in self-reported livestock data is systematic and hence consequential for statistical inferences. Our findings underscore that survey designs that can address specific sources of bias in self-reported livestock data can meaningfully improve livestock asset measurement in Africa.

Year published

2025

Authors

Abay, Kibrom A.; Ayalew, Hailemariam; Terfa, Zelalem; Karguia, Joseph; Breisinger, Clemens

Citation

Abay, Kibrom A.; Ayalew, Hailemariam; Terfa, Zelalem; Karguia, Joseph; and Breisinger, Clemens. 2025. How good are livestock statistics in Africa? Can nudging and direct counting improve the quality of livestock asset data? Journal of Development Economics 176(September 2025): 103532. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103532

Keywords

Africa; Livestock; Measurement; Survey Methods; Livestock Management

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103532 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

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Brief

IFPRI-Sudan: Generating evidence-based solutions for strengthening humanitarian response and economic resilience

2025Siddig, Khalid; Abay, Kibrom A.; Kirui, Oliver K.; Abushama, Hala; Mohamed, Shima; Rakhy, Tarig
Details

IFPRI-Sudan: Generating evidence-based solutions for strengthening humanitarian response and economic resilience

Sudan is experiencing one of the most severe humanitarian and economic crises in its modern history due to the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Sudan is now suffering the largest humanitarian crisis in the world. The war has devastated livelihoods, displaced millions, and significantly weakened the country’s agrifood systems and broader economic structures. In response, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), along with its partners, has intensified its research and policy engagement in Sudan through the Sudan Strategy Support Program (SSSP), which was launched in 2022. IFPRI’s work on Sudan is centered on addressing fragility, post-conflict recovery, resilience-building, and economic development. Its research and policy engagements focus on food security, economy-wide modeling, social protection, micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSME), and agricultural resilience as it works to provide critical evidence-based insights to support recovery efforts that will enable Sudan to regain peace and economic growth and stability. Through high-frequency data collection, impact evaluations, and policy dialogues, the SSSP team has continued to deliver data-driven solutions to inform humanitarian responses, economic revitalization, and development planning in Sudan. By collaborating with organizations such as the World Food Programme (WFP), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the World Bank, and other CGIAR centers and initiatives, IFPRI, through SSSP, has generated information to design effective interventions for conflict-affected populations and institutions working to rebuild Sudan’s economy.

Year published

2025

Authors

Siddig, Khalid; Abay, Kibrom A.; Kirui, Oliver K.; Abushama, Hala; Mohamed, Shima; Rakhy, Tarig

Citation

Siddig, Khalid; Abay, Kibrom A.; Kirui, Oliver K.; Abushama, Hala; Mohamed, Shima; and Rakhy, Tarig. 2025. IFPRI-Sudan: Generating evidence-based solutions for strengthening humanitarian response and economic resilience. Sudan SSP Brief April 2025. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174025

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Capacity Development; Economic Crises; Economic Development; Fragility; Resilience

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

Blogs

Unleashing the potential of Generation Z for food system transformation in Africa
IFPRI Blog
 | 
October 28, 2024

Unleashing the potential of Generation Z for food system transformation in Africa

By Kibrom Abay, Clemens Breisinger, Harriet Mawia, Joyce Maru, Dorah Momanyi, and Boniface Munene

A new research agenda.

Grappling with compounding crises in domestic fertilizer markets in Africa: The case of Ethiopia
IFPRI Blog
 | 
January 16, 2024

Grappling with compounding crises in domestic fertilizer markets in Africa: The case of Ethiopia

By Kibrom Abay, Thomas W. Assefa, Guush Berhane, Gashaw Tadesse Abate, and Charlotte Hebebrand

Local effects of global shocks persist.

Fertilizer policies amid global supply and price shocks
IFPRI Blog
 | 
December 11, 2023

Fertilizer policies amid global supply and price shocks

By Kibrom Abay, Jordan Chamberlin, Pauline Chivenge, Charlotte Hebebrand, and David J. Spielman

Global prices have moderated but many countries still face difficulties.

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Events

2025 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting
IFPRI at External Event

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July 27 to 29, 2025

2025 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting

IFPRI is participating in the 2025 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting on July 27– July 29, 2025. The Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) is a not-for-profit association serving the professional interests of members working in agricultural and broadly related fields of applied economics. AAEA members are primarily employed by academic departments […]

Fertilizer, soil health, and economic shocks: Policy lessons learned from recent events
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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June 11, 2025, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Fertilizer, soil health, and economic shocks: Policy lessons learned from recent events

Join us for a discussion of key findings from a recent special issue of Food Policy exploring the complex interactions between fertilizer use, soil health management, and economic shocks in various agricultural systems. Governments around the world have long implemented policies to enhance agricultural productivity through inorganic fertilizer application and soil management, yet recent global […]

Two Years of Crisis: Impact and Pathways to Recovery and Resilience
Series/Special Event

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April 14 to 15, 2025

Two Years of Crisis: Impact and Pathways to Recovery and Resilience

The Sudan conflict, now entering its third year, continues to devastate the country’s socioeconomic fabric. As of January 2025, more than 8.8 million people were internally displaced, and over 3.3 million had sought refuge in neighboring countries. Conservative reports estimate over 32,000 fatalities occurred between the start of the war on April 15, 2023, and […]

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News

March 18, 2022 | In the News

Russia-Ukraine crisis poses a serious threat to Egypt – the world’s largest wheat importer (The Conversation)

The Conversation published an op-ed by IFPRI researchers, Kibrom Abay, Clemens Breisinger, David Laborde Debucquet, Joseph Glauber, and Lina Alaaeldin Abdelfattah. The authors write that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could create a global food security crisis. It is disrupting agricultural production and trade from one of the world’s major exporting regions. This threatens to drive […]

Research

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