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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Carlo Azzarri

Carlo Azzarri is a Senior Research Fellow in the Innovation Policy and Scaling Unit. His work focuses on the relationships among poverty, nutrition, food security, agriculture, the environment, production, and migration—analyzed at both micro and macroeconomic levels, primarily using quantitative methods.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Development Strategies and Governance

Kibrom Abay

Senior Research Fellow

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Bio

Kibrom A. Abay is a Senior Research Fellow in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit, based in Washington, DC. He is a development and agricultural economist with research interests including rural development, agricultural transformation, urbanization, food and nutrition security, and behavioral economics. Most of his research involves impact evaluation methods. Some of his recent studies examine the behavioral and inferential implications of mismeasurement in household surveys. Much of his current research focuses on Africa south of the Sahara and the Middle East and North Africa region. Before joining IFPRI, he worked as a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Copenhagen and the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI). Kibrom received his PhD in Economics from the University of Copenhagen, Denmark.

Publications

Google Scholar Citations

Publications

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Journal Article

Fertilizer demand and profitability amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia

2025Assefa, Thomas W.; Berhane, Guush; Abate, Gashaw T.; Abay, Kibrom A.
Details

Fertilizer demand and profitability amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia

We assess fertilizer demand and profitability in Ethiopia in the face of the recent global fuel–food–fertilizer price crisis and other domestic shocks. We first examine farmers’ response to changes in both fertilizer and food prices by estimating price elasticity of demand. We then evaluate the profitability of fertilizer by computing average value–cost ratios (AVCRs) associated with fertilizer application before and after these crises. We use detailed longitudinal household survey data collected in three rounds, covering both pre-crisis (2016 and 2019) and post-crisis (2023) production periods, focusing on three main staple crops in Ethiopia (maize, teff, and wheat). Our analysis shows that fertilizer adoption, and yield levels were increasing until the recent crises, but these trends have been halted by these crises. We also find slightly larger fertilizer price elasticity of demand estimates than previous estimates, ranging between −0.40 and −1.12, which vary across crops. We find that farmers are more responsive to fertilizer prices than to output prices. Farmers’ response to increases in staple prices was statistically insignificant and hence not as strong as theoretically perceived. Households with smaller farm sizes are relatively more responsive to changes in fertilizer prices. Finally, we show important dynamics in the profitability of chemical fertilizer. While the AVCRs show profitable trends for most crops, the share of farmers with profitable AVCRs declined following the fertilizer price surges. Our findings offer important insights for policy focusing on mitigating the adverse effects of fertilizer price shocks.

Year published

2025

Authors

Assefa, Thomas W.; Berhane, Guush; Abate, Gashaw T.; Abay, Kibrom A.

Citation

Assefa, Thomas W.; Berhane, Guush; Abate, Gashaw T.; and Abay, Kibrom A. 2025. Fertilizer demand and profitability amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia. Food Policy 133: 102785. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102785

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Fertilizers; Prices; Farmers; Household Surveys; Maize; Teff; Wheat; Yields

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102785 Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Journal Article

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Brief

IFPRI-Sudan: Generating evidence-based solutions for strengthening humanitarian response and economic resilience

2025Siddig, Khalid; Abay, Kibrom A.; Kirui, Oliver K.; Abushama, Hala; Mohamed, Shima; Rakhy, Tarig
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IFPRI-Sudan: Generating evidence-based solutions for strengthening humanitarian response and economic resilience

Sudan is experiencing one of the most severe humanitarian and economic crises in its modern history due to the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Sudan is now suffering the largest humanitarian crisis in the world. The war has devastated livelihoods, displaced millions, and significantly weakened the country’s agrifood systems and broader economic structures. In response, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), along with its partners, has intensified its research and policy engagement in Sudan through the Sudan Strategy Support Program (SSSP), which was launched in 2022. IFPRI’s work on Sudan is centered on addressing fragility, post-conflict recovery, resilience-building, and economic development. Its research and policy engagements focus on food security, economy-wide modeling, social protection, micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSME), and agricultural resilience as it works to provide critical evidence-based insights to support recovery efforts that will enable Sudan to regain peace and economic growth and stability. Through high-frequency data collection, impact evaluations, and policy dialogues, the SSSP team has continued to deliver data-driven solutions to inform humanitarian responses, economic revitalization, and development planning in Sudan. By collaborating with organizations such as the World Food Programme (WFP), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the World Bank, and other CGIAR centers and initiatives, IFPRI, through SSSP, has generated information to design effective interventions for conflict-affected populations and institutions working to rebuild Sudan’s economy.

Year published

2025

Authors

Siddig, Khalid; Abay, Kibrom A.; Kirui, Oliver K.; Abushama, Hala; Mohamed, Shima; Rakhy, Tarig

Citation

Siddig, Khalid; Abay, Kibrom A.; Kirui, Oliver K.; Abushama, Hala; Mohamed, Shima; and Rakhy, Tarig. 2025. IFPRI-Sudan: Generating evidence-based solutions for strengthening humanitarian response and economic resilience. Sudan SSP Brief April 2025. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174025

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Capacity Development; Economic Crises; Economic Development; Fragility; Resilience

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

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Journal Article

Conflicts, crop choice, and agricultural investments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

2025Amare, Mulubrhan; Abay, Kibrom A.; Berhane, Guush; Andam, Kwaw S.; Adeyanju, Dolapo
Details

Conflicts, crop choice, and agricultural investments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

Conflict remains a major driver of poverty in Africa. Conflicts and political instability in the region have been increasing recently and are drawing more attention in public discourse. While it is widely acknowledged that conflicts disrupt agricultural production and food systems, the full extent of the damage inflicted on the lives and livelihoods of farming households and the mechanisms to redress this harm remain poorly understood. In particular, the link between violent conflicts and households’ land allocation and related agricultural investment decisions remains understudied. In this study, we use geocoded longitudinal data along with detailed agricultural panel household surveys in Nigeria to assess the impact of violent conflicts on crop choice decisions and related agricultural investments. Specifically, we explore how farmers’ land allocation and agricultural investment decisions relate or respond to the outbreak and intensity of violent conflicts. We find that violent conflicts are associated with a reduction in the share of both land area cultivated and area harvested. We also find suggestive evidence that violent conflicts may shape farmers’ crop choices and related investments, as violent conflicts are associated with reduction in the share of land allocated to long-term crops (e.g., perennial crops, trees, roots and tubers). Overall, our findings suggest that violent conflicts can negatively influence farmers’ agricultural investments directly by affecting both land utilization patterns and portfolio allocation across activities with varying returns to investments.

Year published

2025

Authors

Amare, Mulubrhan; Abay, Kibrom A.; Berhane, Guush; Andam, Kwaw S.; Adeyanju, Dolapo

Citation

Amare, Mulubrhan; Abay, Kibrom A.; Berhane, Guush; Andam, Kwaw S.; and Adeyanju, Dolapo. 2025. Conflicts, crop choice, and agricultural investments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria. Land Use Policy 148(January 2025): 107391. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2024.107391

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Western Africa; Conflicts; Investment; Smallholders; Decision Making; Gender

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2024.107391 Source record

Project

Fragility, Conflict, and Migration

Record type

Journal Article

Blogs

Unleashing the potential of Generation Z for food system transformation in Africa
IFPRI Blog
 | 
October 28, 2024

Unleashing the potential of Generation Z for food system transformation in Africa

By Kibrom Abay, Clemens Breisinger, Harriet Mawia, Joyce Maru, Dorah Momanyi, and Boniface Munene

A new research agenda.

Grappling with compounding crises in domestic fertilizer markets in Africa: The case of Ethiopia
IFPRI Blog
 | 
January 16, 2024

Grappling with compounding crises in domestic fertilizer markets in Africa: The case of Ethiopia

By Kibrom Abay, Thomas W. Assefa, Guush Berhane, Gashaw Tadesse Abate, and Charlotte Hebebrand

Local effects of global shocks persist.

Fertilizer policies amid global supply and price shocks
IFPRI Blog
 | 
December 11, 2023

Fertilizer policies amid global supply and price shocks

By Kibrom Abay, Jordan Chamberlin, Pauline Chivenge, Charlotte Hebebrand, and David J. Spielman

Global prices have moderated but many countries still face difficulties.

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Events

Two Years of Crisis: Impact and Pathways to Recovery and Resilience
Series/Special Event

 | 

April 14 to 15, 2025

Two Years of Crisis: Impact and Pathways to Recovery and Resilience

The Sudan conflict, now entering its third year, continues to devastate the country’s socioeconomic fabric. As of January 2025, more than 8.8 million people were internally displaced, and over 3.3 million had sought refuge in neighboring countries. Conservative reports estimate over 32,000 fatalities occurred between the start of the war on April 15, 2023, and […]

IFPRI @ CGIAR Science Week
IFPRI at External Event

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April 7 to 12, 2025

IFPRI @ CGIAR Science Week

When humanity has faced its greatest challenges, science and innovation have provided solutions. Today, major and connected global challenges threaten the sustainability of food, land, and water systems, with the most vulnerable people and communities at greatest risk. Recognizing the urgency of these challenges, CGIAR and the Kenyan Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO) are […]

SPIR II RFSA Learning Event: Impact results workshops
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

December 9 to 10, 2024

SPIR II RFSA Learning Event: Impact results workshops

December 9, 2024 | 9:30am to 12:00pm (Africa/Addis_Ababa) | Video Recording | Presentation December 9, 2024 | 1:00pm to 3:30pm (Africa/Addis_Ababa) | Video Recording | Presentation December 10, 2024 | 9:30am to 12:45pm (Africa/Addis_Ababa) | Video Recording | Presentation Click HERE to view the agenda. The Strengthen PSNP Institutions and Resilience (SPIR II) Resilience Food […]

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News

March 18, 2022 | In the News

Russia-Ukraine crisis poses a serious threat to Egypt – the world’s largest wheat importer (The Conversation)

The Conversation published an op-ed by IFPRI researchers, Kibrom Abay, Clemens Breisinger, David Laborde Debucquet, Joseph Glauber, and Lina Alaaeldin Abdelfattah. The authors write that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could create a global food security crisis. It is disrupting agricultural production and trade from one of the world’s major exporting regions. This threatens to drive […]

Research

Topics/Countries