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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Liangzhi You

Liangzhi You is a Senior Research Fellow and theme leader in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, based in Washington, DC. His research focuses on climate resilience, spatial data and analytics, agroecosystems, and agricultural science policy. Gridded crop production data of the world (SPAM) and the agricultural technology evaluation model (DREAM) are among his research contributions. 

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IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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Development Strategies and Governance

Lensa Omune

Research Officer

Bio

Lensa Omune is a Research Officer in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit, based in IFPRI’s Kenya office. Her research centers on the economywide analysis of interactions between policies, environmental risks/climate change, external risks, and agrifood systems using computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier analysis. In addition, she is interested in evaluating the impacts of public-private investments and policies on economic growth, job creation, and household welfare. Before joining IFPRI, she worked with the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics as a statistician and was responsible for the compilation of Kenya’s National Accounts Statistics. Lensa holds a master’s degree in Economics and a bachelor’s degree in Economics with a focus on Information Technology.

Development Strategies and Governance

Publications

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Brief

Kenya: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

2024Mukashov, Askar; Mbuthia, Juneweenex; Omune, Lensa; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Details

Kenya: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

This study explores Kenya’s vulnerability to economic and climatic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Kenyan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Key findings suggest that domestic yield volatility is the key risk factor for GDP and urban consumption and poverty, while external risks, particularly world beverage crop prices, are more significant for rural consumption and poverty. As the majority of those below the poverty line are rural farmers, world beverage price volatility is the top risk for national poverty levels. Finally, for undernourishment outcomes, domestic cereal yield volatility is the dominant risk factor for all household types. Understanding how possible shocks would impact various segments of the Kenyan economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Mbuthia, Juneweenex; Omune, Lensa; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Mbuthia, Juneweenex; Omune, Lensa; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Kenya: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Country Brief 2. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Climate; Shock; Market Prices; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Agriculture; Crop Yield; Poverty; Nutrition; Machine Learning; Risk Assessment

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

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Book Chapter

Assessing the resilience of Kenya’s food system: A production approach

2023Ulimwengu, John M.; Mbuthia, Juneweenex; Omune, Lensa
Details

Assessing the resilience of Kenya’s food system: A production approach

A food system includes all elements (environment, people, inputs, processes, infrastructures, institutions, etc.) and activities that relate to the production, processing, distribution, preparation, and consumption of food, and the outputs of these activities, including socioeconomic and environmental outcomes (HLPE 2017). Thus, a food system links society and nature (Blesh and Wittman 2015). Resilience is “the ability of people, households, communities, countries and systems to mitigate, adapt to, and recover from shocks and stresses in a manner that reduces chronic vulnerability and facilitates inclusive growth” (USAID 2018). Applied to food systems, resilience is defined by the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) as the ability to withstand major shocks and stressors emanating from climate/weather, conflict, disease, external economic shocks, and other sources, which, if not prevented or mitigated, would delay, or limit economic progress, transformation, prosperity, and self-reliance (AGRA 2021). In this sense, resilience of a food system may be considered a system property that plays a critical role in its sustainability (Jacobi et al. 2018), thus ensuring sustained food security. This chapter adopts this definition with the objective of assessing the resilience of Kenya’s food system and its components using systemwide metrics. Specifically, we use a production approach based on input–output linkages. This file also includes the introduction to Part Four.

Year published

2023

Authors

Ulimwengu, John M.; Mbuthia, Juneweenex; Omune, Lensa

Citation

Ulimwengu, John M.; Mbuthia, Juneweenex; and Omune, Lensa. 2023. Assessing the resilience of Kenya’s food system: A production approach. In Food Systems Transformation in Kenya: Lessons from the Past and Policy Options for the Future, eds. Clemens Breisinger, Michael Keenan, Juneweenex Mbuthia, and Jemimah Njuki. Part 4: Toward more resilient food systems, Chapter 10, Pp. 261-284. https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294561_10

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Food Systems; Resilience; Sustainability; Agricultural Production

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294561_10 Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Book Chapter

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Book Chapter

Rising commodities prices driven by the Russia-Ukraine crisis threaten to undermine Kenya’s economy, increase poverty

2023Breisinger, Clemens; Diao, Xinshen; Dorosh, Paul A.; Mbuthia, Juneweenex; Omune, Lensa; Oseko, Edwin Ombui; Pradesha, Angga; Thurlow, James
Details

Rising commodities prices driven by the Russia-Ukraine crisis threaten to undermine Kenya’s economy, increase poverty

Much of the early attention to the Russia-Ukraine conflict’s food security impacts has been concentrated on countries highly dependent on wheat imports from the Black Sea region. Given the important role that wheat products play in the diets of people in Egypt, Sudan, Yemen, Lebanon, and other countries, the interruption in Black Sea wheat trade and high prices have raised serious concerns about rising levels of food insecurity, poverty, and instability around the world. But many countries are affected by price increases across a range of commodities (some predating the war), including in fertilizers, edible oils, and maize, as well as oil, natural gas, and other energy products. How are these sharp international price increases impacting countries and people, and how can countries respond? Our recent modeling study focusing on Kenya suggests higher prices, particularly for fertilizer, will reduce GDP growth and increase poverty rates in the country, putting an estimated 1.4 million additional people below the poverty line.

Year published

2023

Authors

Breisinger, Clemens; Diao, Xinshen; Dorosh, Paul A.; Mbuthia, Juneweenex; Omune, Lensa; Oseko, Edwin Ombui; Pradesha, Angga; Thurlow, James

Citation

Breisinger, Clemens; Diao, Xinshen; Dorosh, Paul A.; Mbuthia, Juneweenex; Omune, Lensa; Pradesha, Angga; and Thurlow, James. 2023. Rising commodities prices driven by the Russia-Ukraine crisis threaten to undermine Kenya’s economy, increase poverty. In The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Global Food Security, eds. Joseph Glauber and David Laborde. Section Four: Country Impacts and Responses: Sub-Saharan Africa, Chapter 33, Pp. 170-174. https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294394_33

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Africa; Shock; Policies; War; Coronavirus; Covid-19; Commodities; Agriculture; Markets; Trade; Coronavirinae; Russia; Food Security; Ukraine; Conflicts; Coronavirus Disease; Poverty; Prices; Climate Change

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294394_33 Source record

Record type

Book Chapter

Events

Kenya Discussion of IFPRI’s 2023 Global Food Policy Report: Rethinking Food Crisis Responses
Series/Special Event

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May 19, 2023, 7:00 – 9:00 am

Kenya Discussion of IFPRI’s 2023 Global Food Policy Report: Rethinking Food Crisis Responses

Virtual Event: May 19, 2023 – 7:00 AM to 9:00 AM EDT. The Kenya discussion of IFPRI’s 2023 GFPR will present key findings and recommendations of the report at global and regional levels. A distinguished set of discussants will then present their reflections on the report and provide insights on crisis response and resilience building in Kenya.

The Ukraine crisis: Unraveling the impacts and policy responses in low- and middle- income countries
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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August 31, 2022, 9:30 – 11:00 am

The Ukraine crisis: Unraveling the impacts and policy responses in low- and middle- income countries

Virtual Event: August 31, 2022 – 09:30 AM to 11:00 AM EDT. In this seminar speakers will share presentations and discussions on how policymakers and other key actors are addressing the challenges created by the Ukraine crisis in specific countries.

National Policies and Strategies for Food, Land and Water Systems Transformation (NPS)
IFPRI Program/Country Event

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May 17 to 18, 2022

National Policies and Strategies for Food, Land and Water Systems Transformation (NPS)

Virtual Event: May 17, 2022 – 9:00 AM to May 18, 2022 – 2:00 PM EAT. This event will introduce the NPS initiative and bring together key stakeholders to help plan a specific work program for Kenya in the next three years.

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