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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Kate Ambler

Kate Amber is a Senior Research Fellow in the Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit. Kate’s research broadly focuses on interventions that can increase incomes for smallholders and other microenterprises in agrifood value chains, with a specific focus on the inclusion of women. This includes work on programming in fragile settings, innovations in agricultural finance, and regulatory solutions for food safety. 

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Development Strategies and Governance

May Thet Htar

Research Analyst

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Bio

May Thet Htar holds a Master’s degree specialized in Agribusiness and has previously worked as the head of market research at a leading agribusiness group in Myanmar. She has collaborated with Yezin Agricultural University on several research projects. In 2022, she has won best paper award at Asia Pacific Journal of Sustainable Agriculture, Food and Energy. She has been awarded Manaaki Scholarship from the New Zealand Government twice for her post graduate studies at Lincoln University and Massey University. She has also been involved in several NZAID development projects implemented Myanmar.

Research Gate Profile

Publications

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Journal Article

Fertilizer and conflicts: Evidence from Myanmar

2025Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Minten, Bart; van Asselt, Joanna; Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Masias, Ian; Goeb, Joseph; Aung, Zin Wai; Htar, May Thet
Details

Fertilizer and conflicts: Evidence from Myanmar

The number of farmers residing in fragile and conflict-affected countries is rising globally, yet the impacts of conflict on the economics of inorganic fertilizer in these settings remain poorly understood. We study how conflicts in Myanmar, combined with global fertilizer market disruptions, have affected inorganic fertilizer prices, use, response, and efficiency. We utilize unique nationally representative household panel survey data and a comprehensive approach that employs various analytical methods to examine the nexus between conflicts and fertilizer-related issues. Our findings reveal that greater intensity of violent events is associated with higher prices of major types of inorganic fertilizer, particularly in areas farther from major import locations. These price changes and increases in violent events have suppressed both the likelihood and quantity of inorganic fertilizer usage, leading to decreased rice yield responses at given nitrogen application levels. Panel stochastic frontier analyses, combined with a method addressing the endogeneity of inorganic fertilizer use, suggest a significant decline in fertilizer use efficiency each year since the onset of conflict. The increase in violent events is also associated with the reduced use of extension services, seeds from markets, irrigation, and optimal fertilizer blends, which may partly explain the diminished returns and efficiency of inorganic fertilizer use. Conflict therefore seems to be associated with a change in the economics of inorganic fertilizer use through various impact channels, affecting agricultural performance in these fragile and conflict-affected settings.

Year published

2025

Authors

Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Minten, Bart; van Asselt, Joanna; Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Masias, Ian; Goeb, Joseph; Aung, Zin Wai; Htar, May Thet

Citation

Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Minten, Bart; van Asselt, Joanna; Lambrecht, Isabel Brigitte; Masias, Ian; Goeb, Joseph; Aung, Zin Wai; and Htar, May Thet. 2025. Fertilizer and conflicts: Evidence from Myanmar. Food Policy 133. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102786

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Fertilizers; Conflicts; Prices; Imports; Farmers; Markets; Data; Rice; Yields; Agricultural Productivity

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102786 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

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Conference Paper

Conflict, inclusivity, and transformation of the rice value chain in Myanmar

2024Goeb, Joseph; Minten, Bart; Aung, Nilar; Aung, Zin Wai; Zu, A Myint; Htar, May Thet
Details

Conflict, inclusivity, and transformation of the rice value chain in Myanmar

In numerous low- and middle-income countries, agricultural value chains (AVC) are undergoing rapid transformation, yet scant evidence exists regarding such changes in fragile and conflict- affected settings, and little is known about inclusivity in this transformation. This study focuses on changes in Myanmar’s rice value chain – using unique large-scale primary data – from 2013 to 2022, during an economic boom and subsequent political upheaval and conflict. We document remarkable shifts, including a fourfold increase in rice exports, propelling Myanmar to the world’s fifth-largest rice exporter. Concurrently, domestic market conditions improved, and there was modernization in the ‘hidden middle’ of the value chain including increased investments in modern milling equipment and drying methods. At the farm level we note greater adoption of modern inputs (e.g., improved seed) and harvest/post-harvest technologies and increased reliance on modern specialized service providers. The transformation was not everywhere inclusive, and modernization in some areas decelerated due to conflict. Mills and farms in insecure and conflict-affected areas, as well as remote millers and smallholders, participated to a lesser extent, and the gaps widened during the crisis years. The rapid modernization in Myanmar’s rice value chain from 2013 to 2019 highlights the positive impacts of stable governance, infrastructure investment, and liberalization on AVC transformation while the observed variations in modernization inclusivity across different segments of the value chain underscore the complex interplay between governance, conflict, and AVC transformation. JEL Codes: Q13, Q17, Q18

Year published

2024

Authors

Goeb, Joseph; Minten, Bart; Aung, Nilar; Aung, Zin Wai; Zu, A Myint; Htar, May Thet

Citation

Goeb, Joseph; Minten, Bart; Aung, Nilar; Aung, Zin Wai; Zu, A Myint; and Htar, May Thet. 2024. Conflict, inclusivity, and transformation of the rice value chain in Myanmar. 32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists Conference, August 2-7, 2024, New Delhi, India. https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.344305

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Agricultural Value Chains; Conflicts; Exports; Rice

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Conference Paper

Research

Topics/Countries