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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Carlo Azzarri

Carlo Azzarri is a Senior Research Fellow in the Innovation Policy and Scaling Unit. His work focuses on the relationships among poverty, nutrition, food security, agriculture, the environment, production, and migration—analyzed at both micro and macroeconomic levels, primarily using quantitative methods.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Foresight and Policy Modeling

Sherwin Gabriel

Scientist

gabriel_sherwin

Bio

Sherwin is a Scientist in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, based in Pretoria, South Africa. He works as part of the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight team, where he participates in the Micronutrient Action Policy Support (MAPS) project; the development and application of new features of IFPRI’s IMPACT model; and work on climate variability, energy, and related policy research in southern Africa. Sherwin continues to contribute to economic policy research in South Africa as part of the Southern Africa-Towards Inclusive Economic Development (SA-TIED) program. Sherwin has worked on economywide simulation modeling since 2009 and holds a master’s degree in Economics from the University of Pretoria.

Publications

Publications

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Book Chapter

Building back fairer from the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa

2023Arndt, Channing; Davies, Robert J.; Gabriel, Sherwin; Harris, Lawrence; Sachs, Michael
Details

Building back fairer from the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa

On 27 August 2019, National Treasury released a document titled ‘Economic transformation, inclusive growth, and competitiveness: A contribution towards a growth agenda for the South African economy’. Perhaps as a response to the long title, the document became popularly known as “the 77-pager”. No document that proposes a substantial reform economic programme is universally embraced; however, the 77-pager did receive some important plaudits. For example, The Economist magazine described it as “replete with sensible ideas that could form the basis of a new ‘growth strategy’” (The Economist 2019). National Treasury (2019) estimated that the proposed reforms would, following implementation, raise potential growth by 2.3 percentage points (above the baseline) and create over 1 million additional jobs.

Year published

2023

Authors

Arndt, Channing; Davies, Robert J.; Gabriel, Sherwin; Harris, Lawrence; Sachs, Michael

Citation

Arndt, Channing; Davies, Robert J.; Gabriel, Sherwin; Harris, Lawrence; and Sachs, Michael. 2023. Building back fairer from the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa. In Unlocking Growth Prospects in Post-Pandemic South Africa: A Compilation of Working Papers Looking at Ways to Restore and Accelerate Economic Growth in South Africa, eds. Christopher Loewald and Matthew Stern. Chapter 5, Pp. 132-152. https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/what-we-do/research/UNLOCKING%20GROWTH%20PROSPECTS%20FINAL%20050423.pdf

Country/Region

South Africa

Keywords

Africa; Southern Africa; Coronavirus; Coronavirus Disease; Coronavirinae; Covid-19; Policies; Economic Growth; Food Systems; Nutrition; Health; Urban Development

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Book Chapter

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Report

CGIAR week of science and practice of scaling agri-food system innovation workshop report

2022Jacobs-Mata, Inga; Nohayi, Ngowenani; Fakudze, Bhekiwe; Nkosi, Mahlatse; Gabriel, Sherwin; Dahl, Hauke; Ires, Idil; Ermyas, Saba
Details

CGIAR week of science and practice of scaling agri-food system innovation workshop report

The Ukama Ustawi week of science and practice of scaling agri-food system innovation took place in Nairobi from 22 – 24 November 2022. More than 100 participants from CGIAR, GIZ, agribusinesses and financing platforms, public and private scaling partners, and donors attended the events.

Year published

2022

Authors

Jacobs-Mata, Inga; Nohayi, Ngowenani; Fakudze, Bhekiwe; Nkosi, Mahlatse; Gabriel, Sherwin; Dahl, Hauke; Ires, Idil; Ermyas, Saba

Citation

Jacobs-Mata, I., Nohayi, N., Fakudze, B., Nkosi, M., Gabriel, S., Dahl, H., Ires, I. and Ermyas, S. 2022. CGIAR week of science and practice of scaling agri-food system innovation workshop report. Montpellier: CGIAR System Organization.

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Southern Africa; Diversification; Intensification; Scaling Up; Partnerships; Innovation; Agrifood Systems

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-NC-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Diversification in East and Southern Africa

Record type

Report

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Working Paper

A climate change modelling framework for financial stress testing in Southern Africa

2022Anvari, Vafa; Arndt, Channing; Hartley, Faaiqa; Makrelov, Konstantin; Strezepek, Kenneth; Thomas, Timothy S.; Gabriel, Sherwin; Merven, Bruno
Details

A climate change modelling framework for financial stress testing in Southern Africa

Central banks play a critical role in the economy, with policy levers that influence and are influenced by climate change. An important part of central bank interventions is conducting climate-related stress tests and scenario analysis to increase awareness in the financial sector of the effects of climate change, improve the integration of climate-related risks into financial companies’ decisions, identify important data gaps, and start building capacity to develop more advanced and accurate climate scenarios. These exercises, however, are a challenge to central banks and financial companies because of their complexity and the new data and tools required for scenario development and analysis. The development of scenarios for climate-related stress testing requires the integration of different model frameworks to assess the impacts of climate change, translate these impacts into macroeconomic scenarios, and evaluate the subsequent financial sector outcomes. This integration requires multidisciplinary skills such as the joint work of energy system modellers, climate scientists and macroprudential experts. This paper provides an overview of the modelling frameworks available for assessing climate change impacts in South Africa, covering both local and global models. This should assist financial institutions and regulators with developing partnerships to build scenarios and assess the impact of climate-related risks. Gaps in current models and modelling for financial stress testing are also identified as considerations for future research.

Year published

2022

Authors

Anvari, Vafa; Arndt, Channing; Hartley, Faaiqa; Makrelov, Konstantin; Strezepek, Kenneth; Thomas, Timothy S.; Gabriel, Sherwin; Merven, Bruno

Citation

Anvari, Vafa; Arndt, Channing; Hartley, Faaiqa; Makrelov, Konstantin; Strezepek, Kenneth; Thomas, Timothy S.; Gabriel, Sherwin; and Merven, Bruno. 2022. A climate change modelling framework for financial stress testing in Southern Africa. South African Reserve Bank Working Paper Series 2022-09. SouthAfrica: South African Reserve Bank. https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/publications/publication-detail-pages/working-papers/2022/AclimatechangemodellingframeworkforfinancialstresstestinginSouthernAfrica

Country/Region

South Africa

Keywords

Africa; Southern Africa; Economy; Policies; Climate Change; Finance; Capacity Development; Data; Macroeconomic Analysis; Central Banks; Economic Situation; Modelling; Climate Models; Banking; Decision Making; Regulations; Energy Resources; Risk; Transition Risk

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Working Paper

Blogs

Extraordinary COVID-19 social support programs in South Africa yield economic benefits during the pandemic period
IFPRI Blog
 | 
August 30, 2021

Extraordinary COVID-19 social support programs in South Africa yield economic benefits during the pandemic period

By Sherwin Gabriel, Dirk van Seventer, Channing Arndt, Robert J. Davies, Laurence Harris, Sherman Robinson, and Jenna Wilf

Modeling shows emergency safety net programs boost GDP during pandemic.

Assessing the toll of COVID-19 lockdown measures on the South African economy
IFPRI Blog
 | 
May 06, 2020

Assessing the toll of COVID-19 lockdown measures on the South African economy

By Channing Arndt, Sherwin Gabriel, and Sherman Robinson

Modeling shows GDP and incomes—particularly among low-income households—falling dramatically.

News

June 11, 2020 | In the News

Who has been hit hardest by South Africa’s lockdown? We found some answers (The Conversation)

The Conversation published an op-ed by EPTD Division Director Channing Arndt, Senior Research Fellow Emeritus Sherman Robinson, and Scientist Sherwin Gabriel that stated in the case of South Africa, the lockdown policies are relatively stringent, and the economic impacts large. Along with analysis and recommendations, the authors said, “With a catastrophic global pandemic coming on top of more than a […]