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Emily Schmidt

Emily Schmidt is a Senior Research Fellow in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit. Her most recent research explores household livelihood strategies in Papua New Guinea, including linkages between agriculture, poverty, and nutrition outcomes among rural smallholder farmers.

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Innovation Policy and Scaling

Thomas Assefa

Associate Research Fellow

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Bio

Thomas Woldu Assefa is an Associate Research Fellow in the Innovation Policy and Scaling Unit. He is a development economist whose research interests include agricultural technology adoption, rural development, agricultural transformation, behavioral economics, agricultural extension and advisory services, food and nutrition security, and survey methods and measurements. Most of his research involves experimental and quasi-experimental impact evaluation methods, and he has extensive experience in designing and implementing large-scale household surveys and randomized controlled trials. In his recent work, Thomas has focused on understanding smallholder farmers’ fertilizer adoption decisions and innovative methods to minimize measurement errors in development economics research.

Before joining IFPRI, he worked as a postdoctoral research fellow at the University of Georgia, as a consultant for the World Bank and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and as an IMMANA postdoctoral research fellow in a program administered by Tufts University. Thomas received his MSc from the Norwegian University of Life Sciences and holds a PhD from the University of Georgia, US.

Google Scholar Citations

Publications

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Journal Article

Fertilizer demand and profitability amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia

2025Assefa, Thomas W.; Berhane, Guush; Abate, Gashaw T.; Abay, Kibrom A.
Details

Fertilizer demand and profitability amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia

We assess fertilizer demand and profitability in Ethiopia in the face of the recent global fuel–food–fertilizer price crisis and other domestic shocks. We first examine farmers’ response to changes in both fertilizer and food prices by estimating price elasticity of demand. We then evaluate the profitability of fertilizer by computing average value–cost ratios (AVCRs) associated with fertilizer application before and after these crises. We use detailed longitudinal household survey data collected in three rounds, covering both pre-crisis (2016 and 2019) and post-crisis (2023) production periods, focusing on three main staple crops in Ethiopia (maize, teff, and wheat). Our analysis shows that fertilizer adoption, and yield levels were increasing until the recent crises, but these trends have been halted by these crises. We also find slightly larger fertilizer price elasticity of demand estimates than previous estimates, ranging between −0.40 and −1.12, which vary across crops. We find that farmers are more responsive to fertilizer prices than to output prices. Farmers’ response to increases in staple prices was statistically insignificant and hence not as strong as theoretically perceived. Households with smaller farm sizes are relatively more responsive to changes in fertilizer prices. Finally, we show important dynamics in the profitability of chemical fertilizer. While the AVCRs show profitable trends for most crops, the share of farmers with profitable AVCRs declined following the fertilizer price surges. Our findings offer important insights for policy focusing on mitigating the adverse effects of fertilizer price shocks.

Year published

2025

Authors

Assefa, Thomas W.; Berhane, Guush; Abate, Gashaw T.; Abay, Kibrom A.

Citation

Assefa, Thomas W.; Berhane, Guush; Abate, Gashaw T.; and Abay, Kibrom A. 2025. Fertilizer demand and profitability amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia. Food Policy 133: 102785. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102785

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Fertilizers; Prices; Farmers; Household Surveys; Maize; Teff; Wheat; Yields

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102785 Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Journal Article

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Other

The impact of site-specific soil fertility recommendations: Experimental evidence from Malawi

2024Van Campenhout, Bjorn; De Weerdt, Joachim; Assefa, Thomas; Spielman, David J.; Siyame, Edwin W. P.; Ariong, Richard; Atkinson, Jonathan
Details

The impact of site-specific soil fertility recommendations: Experimental evidence from Malawi

Raising agricultural productivity among smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa is widely recognized as an important component of inclusive wealth creation and structural transformation. Central to this endeavor will be the adoption of sustainable soil and land management to improve the sustainability, resilience and productivity of agriculture. As such, government advise farmers to increase soil productivity by embracing the use of fertilizers and implement proper soil health management practices. However, these recommendations mostly come in the form of blanket one-size-fits-all recommendations that ignore heterogeneity in soil characteristics that individual farmers face. Using a cluster randomize control trial, we evaluate the impact of a bundled intervention that involves offering farmers a soil test on a plot they select and, using the results of this soil test, provide them with tailored advise on soil management to attain a desired yield for a particular crop the farmer chooses to plant on the plot. Furthermore, we also explore resources constraints as a potential barrier to the adoption of site specific fertilizer blends by adding a subsidy. JEL codes: O33, Q12, Q16

Year published

2024

Authors

Van Campenhout, Bjorn; De Weerdt, Joachim; Assefa, Thomas; Spielman, David J.; Siyame, Edwin W. P.; Ariong, Richard; Atkinson, Jonathan

Citation

Van Campenhout, Bjorn; De Weerdt, Joachim; Assefa, Thomas; Spielman, David J.; Siyame, Edwin; Ariong, Richard; and Atkinson, Jonathan. 2024. The impact of site-specific soil fertility recommendations: Experimental evidence from Malawi. AEA RCT Registry. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.14293-2.0

Country/Region

Malawi

Keywords

Africa; Agricultural Extension; Decision-support Systems; Inorganic Fertilizer; Soil Analysis

Language

English

Access/Licence

Limited Access

Links

https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.14293-2.0 Source record

Record type

Other

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Working Paper

Revisiting the demand and profitability of chemical fertilizers amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia

2024Assefa, Thomas; Berhane, Guush; Abate, Gashaw T.; Abay, Kibrom A.
Details

Revisiting the demand and profitability of chemical fertilizers amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia

We revisit the state of smallholder fertilizer demand and profitability in Ethiopia in the face of the recent global fuel–food–fertilizer price crisis triggered by the Russian–Ukraine war and compounded by other domestic supply shocks. We first examine farmers’ response to changes in both fertilizer and food prices by estimating price elasticity of demand. We then revisit the profitability of fertilizer by computing average value–cost ratios (AVCRs) associated with fertilizer application before and after these crises. We use three-round detailed longitudinal household survey data, covering both pre-crisis (2016 and 2019) and post-crisis (2023) production periods, focusing on three main staple crops in Ethiopia (maize, teff, and wheat). Our analysis shows that fertilizer adoption, use, and yield levels were increasing until the recent crises, but these trends seem halted by these crises. We also find relatively large fertilizer price elasticity of demand estimates, ranging between 0.4 and 1.1, which vary across crops and are substantially larger than previous estimates. We find suggestive evidence that households with smaller farm sizes are relatively more responsive to changes in fertilizer prices. We also document that farmers’ response to increases in staple crop prices is not as strong as perceived and hence appears to be statistically insignificant. Finally, we show important dynamics in the profitability of chemical fertilizer. While the AVCRs show profitable trends for most crops, the share of farmers with profitable AVCRs declined following the fertilizer price surge. Our findings offer important insights for policy focusing on mitigating the adverse effects of fertilizer price shocks.

Year published

2024

Authors

Assefa, Thomas; Berhane, Guush; Abate, Gashaw T.; Abay, Kibrom A.

Citation

Assefa, Thomas; Berhane, Guush; Abate, Gashaw T.; and Abay, Kibrom. 2024. 2024. Revisiting the demand and profitability of chemical fertilizers amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2263. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/148984

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Fertilizer Application; Smallholders; Household Surveys; Yield Response Factor; Shock

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Working Paper