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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Carlo Azzarri

Carlo Azzarri is a Senior Research Fellow in the Innovation Policy and Scaling Unit. His work focuses on the relationships among poverty, nutrition, food security, agriculture, the environment, production, and migration—analyzed at both micro and macroeconomic levels, primarily using quantitative methods.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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country program

Papua New Guinea Agriculture, Food, and Nutrition Policy Support Program

country programs

Overview

The Papua New Guinea Agriculture, Food, and Nutrition Policy Support Program (PNG-AFNP) is an initiative aligned with the Government of Papua New Guinea’s vision to revitalize and transform its agriculture sector to improve economic opportunities, livelihoods, and food security. The PNG-AFNP is built around strategic research themes that are integrated with a focus on capability strengthening to support a forward-looking strategy for economic growth and transformation within the country.  The program pairs hands-on, collaborative research that meets real-time policy needs with medium- and long-term research initiatives to build a body of evidence and capability around specific development themes, including:

  • Agricultural growth and transformation
  • Climate resilient agriculture
  • Women’s economic empowerment
  • Food and nutrition security
  • Domestic and export agricultural value chains

The PNG-AFNP is supported by the Australian Government’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) through the Australian High Commission (AHC) in Port Moresby and the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR).  IFPRI has been working in Papua New Guinea since 2018 through support from a variety of partners.  The PNG-AFNP program is a four-year initiative launched in 2024 that will continue to build strong partnerships through evidence-based policymaking.

To learn more, visit the PNG program website.

Program Brochure

IFPRI PNG Website

Donors

Partners

Duration

2024 – ongoing

Publications

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Dataset

Papua New Guinea Rural Household Survey, 2023

2025International Food Policy Research Institute
Details

Papua New Guinea Rural Household Survey, 2023

The Papua New Guinea Rural Household Survey (2023) collected detailed household-level data on agricultural production, food and non-food consumption and expenditure, and livelihood strategies across 14 provinces, covering communities in the highlands, lowlands, and islands of Papua New Guinea (PNG). The survey was designed using a purposive sampling strategy based on defined agro-ecological zones, which allows for the analysis of key factors influencing rural households and communities. It is important to note that the survey is not nationally representative; however, given the careful random selection of survey areas, we expect that generalizable relationships between variables affecting socio-economic and other development outcomes in rural PNG communities will be consistently observed across representative samples and in this survey. These factors include those that contribute to more resilient local food systems, diversified employment opportunities, and improved household wellbeing. The survey encompasses 2,699 households in 270 communities, spanning five agroecological zones. It features detailed modules on a wide range of topics relevant to rural livelihoods, agricultural production, and household wellbeing.

Year published

2025

Authors

International Food Policy Research Institute

Citation

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 2025.Papua New Guinea Household Survey on Food Systems, 2023. Washington, DC: IFPRI [dataset]. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/BYZMZ6. Harvard Dataverse.Version 1.

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

South-eastern Asia; Oceania; Asia; Rural Areas; Household Expenditure; Food Systems; Anthropometry; Crop Production; Off Farm Employment; Gender; Sex-disaggregated Data; Nutrition; Health

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.7910/dvn/byzmz6 Source record

Project

Rethinking Food Markets

Record type

Dataset

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Brief

Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

2025Mukashov, Askar; Dorosh, Paul A.; Schmidt, Emily; Thurlow, James
Details

Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

Using an economy-wide, multi-sectoral model, this study explores potential vulnerability of Papua New Guinea (PNG) to economic shocks and identifies factors that contribute most to economic uncertainty. Economic scenarios were developed using historical data on volatile domestic sectors (e.g., primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation) and world prices of goods and services in which PNG trades. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of PNG was used to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under these scenarios. In addition, data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes. Key findings suggest that Papua New Guinea’s economy is predominantly exposed to external risks, with world prices and foreign capital volatility together accounting for approximately two-thirds of the potential variation in GDP and three-fourths of the potential variation in private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment (domestic production volatility contributes the remaining one-third and one-fourth, respectively). The current structure of the PNG economy underpins these results. While agriculture is the most uncertain sector, it is relatively less important compared to the overall economy; export earnings from energy and metals, as well as volatile foreign exchange capital inflows, play a much more significant role in the country’s current economic risks. Understanding how potential shocks might impact various segments of the PNG economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing sectoral productivity or diversifying production away from high-risk sectors.

Year published

2025

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Dorosh, Paul A.; Schmidt, Emily; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Dorosh, Paul A.; Schmidt, Emily; and Thurlow, James. 2025. Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks. Papua New Guinea Project Note 18. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173653

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Oceania; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Domestic Production; Machine Learning; Shock; Vulnerability; World Markets

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Climate Resilience

Record type

Brief

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Climate change and the impact on taro in Papua New Guinea

2025Thomas, Timothy S.; Robertson, Richard D.
Details

Climate change and the impact on taro in Papua New Guinea

In this paper we present a brief summary of recent historical climate of Papua New Guinea (PNG), finding that rainfall has been increasing greatly compared to pre-1995 levels, but that temperature has only been rising at a moderate rate. We then examine the 5 climate models used in this study from the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) / ISIMIP / CMIP3b, discovering one – IPSL – which best reflects the climate trends noted in PNG since 1995. The climate model projections show that temperature changes in PNG are expected to be less than most other places in the world and precipitation changes in PNG are projected to be higher than most other places in the world. Despite noting that IPSL seems to best represent climate changes observed thus far, we use all 5 climate models in the DSSAT crop model for taro, investigating how each climate model will lead to changes in taro yields at each half-degree pixel. In the aggregate, we find that the IPSL model leads to the greatest projected reduction in taro yield at -6.4% for the nation, with Southern region projected to have greater than 10% yield reduction for taro. Across the 5 climate models, the median across model results suggest only a 1.6% yield reduction, while the most optimistic model projects a 4.4% gain. Because of uncertainty across climate models and different impacts across regions, as well as potentially increasing climate variability which would lead to more extreme events including droughts and floods, we recommend developing a suite of options to help farmers navigate future climate uncertainty. For example, developing and testing crop varieties that would offer better yields whether the future is wetter or drier, as well as varieties that are less sensitive to temperature extremes. These could include new varieties of taro but might also include alternative crops and farming techniques designed to protect the plants during ad-verse climate events.

Year published

2025

Authors

Thomas, Timothy S.; Robertson, Richard D.

Citation

Thomas, Timothy S.; and Robertson, Richard D. 2025. Climate change and the impact on taro in Papua New Guinea. Papua New Guinea Project Note 19. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173654

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Oceania; Climate Change; Crop Yield; Rainfall; Taro

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Climate Resilience

Record type

Brief

Blogs

Opportunities and challenges for coffee production in Papua New Guinea’s highlands
IFPRI Blog
 | 
July 03, 2024

Opportunities and challenges for coffee production in Papua New Guinea’s highlands

By Rishabh Mukerjee, Helmtrude Sikas-Iha, and Damaris Warambukia

Survey insights on production, pests, and marketing.

2023 Papua New Guinea Rural Household Survey: Insights on livelihoods and the agrifood system
IFPRI Blog
 | 
April 22, 2024

2023 Papua New Guinea Rural Household Survey: Insights on livelihoods and the agrifood system

By Trudie Sikas-Iha and Emily Schmidt

New data on diets.

Improving agricultural value chain coordination and gender inclusiveness in Papua New Guinea
IFPRI Blog
 | 
December 20, 2022

Improving agricultural value chain coordination and gender inclusiveness in Papua New Guinea

By Lucia Carrillo, Peixun Fang, Katrina Kosec, and Emily Schmidt

Challenges and opportunities for women to engage in more profitable work.

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News

February 09, 2022 | In the News

B’ville’s COVID-19 response to food systems (Post Courier) 

Post Courier (Papua New Guinea) published an article stating that prior to coronavirus, PNG’s food systems were already under constant threat from both natural and human-made factors such as natural disasters, pests, and disease infestation as well as challenges arising from its geographical context. The pandemic has only heightened these issues by disrupting food supply systems and […]

March 22, 2021 | In the News

COVID-19 and other food shocks facing PNG (Papua New Guinea National)

Papua New Guinea National published an op-ed by IFPRI staff—Research fellow Emily Schmidt, Senior Research Fellow Xinshen Diao, and Division Director Paul Dorosh (Development Strategy and Governance Division)– on ways COVID-19 has impacted urban and rural households throughout Papua New Guinea (PNG). Looking ahead, policymakers and development practitioners must continue to mitigate COVID-19 impacts on PNG households, as well as monitor other potential agricultural […]

June 13, 2019 | In the News

Rural Communities Trapped in Poverty: Survey (Post-Courier)

Recent findings from an IFPRI survey on food consumption in Papua New Guinea found poor households were not getting enough food. Researcher Emily Schmidt calls for increased access to education to improve rural families' predicaments.

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Events

2023 PNG Rural Household Survey: Report Launch
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

March 18, 2024, 12:30 – 3:30 pm

2023 PNG Rural Household Survey: Report Launch

In-person Event: March 7, 2024 – 12:30 PM to 3:30 PM GMT+10. This seminar will provide results of the rural household survey and discuss opportunities for promoting agricultural transformation for economic growth and food security in PNG. 

Informing agricultural investment strategy and food policy in PNG
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

October 13, 2022, 8:30 – 12:45 pm

Informing agricultural investment strategy and food policy in PNG

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the PNG National Agriculture Research Institute (NARI) have teamed up to support data-driven policy dialogue and formulation in Papua New Guinea. This workshop aims to inform key agricultural development challenges, opportunities, and investments in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Presentations will discuss results from recent data collection efforts […]

Linkages of Agriculture, Nutrition and Economic Development
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

June 12, 2019, 9:00 – 12:30 pm

Linkages of Agriculture, Nutrition and Economic Development

Approximately 80 percent of the population in PNG is semi-dependent on subsistence agriculture, however limited economic analysis exists to inform policy priorities aimed at sustainable growth and poverty reduction in rural areas. Renewed efforts to inform overall agricultural production and resilience in Papua New Guinea have taken place over the last several years. This workshop […]

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Team members

Emily Schmidt

Emily Schmidt

Senior Research Fellow, Development
Strategies and Governance

Peixun Fang

Peixun Fang

Senior Research Analyst, Foresight
and Policy Modeling

profile

Kristi Mahrt

Senior Research Analyst, Development
Strategies and Governance

The Programs

  • Kutubdia Island in the Bay of Bengal

    Bangladesh Policy Research and Strategy Support Program

    Improving food and nutrition security is of paramount concern to millions in Bangladesh.

  • Wuxi, the fast growing city that was formerly known as White Horse Village.

    China Strategy Support Program

    Supports joint research & capacity strengthening as well as policy dialogues & communication to improve policymaking.

  • Farm land in Giza in Egypt

    Egypt Strategy Support Program

    Egypt SSP's main objective is to raise incomes of the rural poor and to improve food and nutrition security in Egypt.

  • Gayo village, Ethiopia

    Ethiopia Strategy Support Program

    ESSP is a collaborative program undertaken by IFPRI and the Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI)

  • amevi-wisdom-wiul_nyafcy-unsplash

    Ghana Strategy Support Program

    Conduct research & advise on policy to support agricultural growth, rural development & economic transformation.

  • Local vendors selling vegetables at a market in Kenya,Africa

    Kenya Strategy Support Program

    KSSP is a policy research, capacity strengthening and policy communication program with the main objectives to accelerate poverty reduction and to improve food security.

  • Mitundu Market, Lilongwe, Malawi

    Malawi Strategy Support Program

    This project facilitates and promotes evidence-based dialogue and decision-making in support of agricultural development, food security, and economic growth in Malawi.

  • Country program Myanmar

    Myanmar Strategy Support Program

    The project supports agricultural transformation and other development policy goals by enhancing national technical, institutional, and policy analysis capacities.

  • Nigeria Strategy Support Program

    NSSP responds to the research, analysis, and capacity needs of stakeholders in the Nigerian agricultural research and policy community.

  • Papua New Guinea Agriculture, Food, and Nutrition Policy Support Program

    The Papua New Guinea Agriculture, Food, and Nutrition Policy Support Program (PNG-AFNP) is an initiative aligned with the Government of Papua New Guinea’s vision to revitalize and transform its agricultural sector to improve economic opportunities, livelihoods, and food security.

  • Fertile field at sunset in the countryside (Rwanda/ Africa)

    Rwanda Strategy Support Program

    Rwanda SSP is an initiative aligned with the Government of Rwanda’s vision to accelerate agricultural transformation and rural development in Rwanda.

  • A sunset view of river Nile in Khartoum, Sudan

    Sudan Strategy Support Program

    The Sudan Country Strategy Support Program (CSSP), with key team members based in Khartoum, can provide needed analytical support to the Government of Sudan, local and international partners.