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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Manuel Hernandez

Manuel Hernandez is a Senior Research Fellow in the Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit of IFPRI. He has more than 20 years of experience in diverse projects in Latin America, Africa, and Asia on development issues related to agricultural and labor markets, food security and nutrition, industrial organization and regulation, price analysis, and the informal economy. His current research focuses on impact evaluation linked to rural development and food security projects, migration, functioning of oligopoly markets and value chains, and price volatility.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Innovation Policy and Scaling

David Spielman

Director, Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS)

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Bio

David J. Spielman is the director of IFPRI’s Innovation Policy and Scaling Unit and has been with the institute since 2004. His research agenda covers a range of topics including agriculture and rural development policy; agricultural science, technology, and innovation; plant genetic resources and seed systems; agricultural extension and advisory services; and community-driven rural development. David was most recently based in Kigali, Rwanda, where he led the Rwanda Strategy Support Program.  From 2016 to 2020, David managed IFPRI’s research theme on science, technology, and innovation policy from its headquarters in Washington, DC, and contributed to research projects in Asia and Africa. From 2004 to 2010, he was based in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, where he was part of IFPRI’s work on strengthening agricultural innovation systems. Earlier in his career, David worked on agriculture and rural development issues for the World Bank (Washington, DC), the Aga Khan Development Network (Pakistan), and several other organizations. David received a PhD in Economics from American University in 2003, an MSc in Development Studies from the London School of Economics in 1993, and a BA in International Relations from Tufts University in 1992.

Languages Spoken: English, Urdu

Publications

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Publications

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Journal Article

Fertilizer policy reforms in the midst of crisis: Evidence from Rwanda

2025Spielman, David J.; Mugabo, Serge; Rosenbach, Gracie; Ndikumana, Sosthene; Benimana, Gilberthe; Ingabire, Chantal
Details

Fertilizer policy reforms in the midst of crisis: Evidence from Rwanda

Fertilizer subsidies are a prominent feature of many agricultural development strategies in sub-Saharan Africa, but few countries have the necessary data to make rapid decisions about their management in the face of exogenous shocks. This was the case in Rwanda following the rapid increase in international fertilizer prices in 2021–22. Working within a constrained fiscal space that followed the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government of Rwanda aimed to revise its fertilizer subsidy system to accommodate higher fertilizer import prices without compromising progress against its agricultural growth targets. This paper explores both the economic analysis and policy process that shaped decision-making around Rwanda’s fertilizer subsidy system during the period 2020–23. The paper centers on the design and application of a microsimulation model that estimated—almost in real time—the impact of increased fertilizer prices on crop production during this period. It then explores the policy outcomes that followed, emphasizing the scope for subsidy reductions even in the midst of crisis, the critical importance of strengthening agricultural data systems, and lessons for countries facing similar challenges.

Year published

2025

Authors

Spielman, David J.; Mugabo, Serge; Rosenbach, Gracie; Ndikumana, Sosthene; Benimana, Gilberthe; Ingabire, Chantal

Citation

Spielman, David J.; Mugabo, Serge; Rosenbach, Gracie; Ndikumana, Sosthene; Benimana, Gilberthe; and Ingabire, Chantal. 2025. Fertilizer policy reforms in the midst of crisis: Evidence from Rwanda. Food Policy 133(May 2025): 102823. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102823

Country/Region

Rwanda

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Fertilizers; Reforms; Subsidies; Data; Shock; Agricultural Development

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102823 Source record

Project

Policies, Institutions, and Markets

Record type

Journal Article

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Journal Article

Seed certification, certified seeds use and yield outcomes in Nigeria: Insights from nationally-representative farm panel data and seed company location data

2025
Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Ragasa, Catherine; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Andam, Kwaw S.; Spielman, David J.; Edeh, Hyacinth O.; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Haile, Beliyou; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Omoigui, Lucky O.
…more Abdoulaye, Tahirou; Kumar, P. Lava; Wossen, Tesfamicheal
Details

Seed certification, certified seeds use and yield outcomes in Nigeria: Insights from nationally-representative farm panel data and seed company location data

CONTEXT Despite the importance of enhanced seed quality to agricultural productivity growth, evidence remains scarce regarding the nature and possible drivers of returns to formal sector quality assurance systems, including certified seeds production in countries like Nigeria that focus significantly on the formal-sector seed systems. OBJECTIVE This study narrows this knowledge gap by estimating the effect of the quantity of certified seeds produced and the spatial variations where they are produced on the use of certified seeds and yields. We also assess the yield effects of certified seeds use and their relationship with agroclimatic and socioeconomic conditions. METHODS We combine nationally-representative farm-household survey panel data with spatial data on the headquarters locations of seed companies, the quantity of certified seeds for maize, cowpea, and rice that they produce, and spatially explicit agroecological data. We apply panel fixed effects methods as well as instrumental-variable methods to address potential endogeneity associated with certified seeds use while also controlling for the use of improved varieties to separate their effects from the effects of certified seeds. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicate that the availability of certified seeds—captured by indicators of certified seeds produced by seed companies headquartered in the states of survey respondents—is associated with positive but declining marginal effects on certified seeds use and yields. These results are robust when we also consider the potential within-state heterogeneity in the proximity to seed company headquarters, as well as potential spillovers from the nearest adjacent states. The yield effects of certified seeds are heterogeneous and depend on agroclimatic conditions and farmers’ socioeconomic characteristics. The use of certified seeds is somewhat higher in areas with higher yield effects after controlling for certified seeds production. These patterns partly lead to observed non-linearities in certified seeds use because certified seeds may be more likely to be used by farmers with higher expected returns than farmers with lower expected returns. These results underscore the importance of spatially targeted efforts in enhancing certified seeds production capacity, together with the exploration of intermediate quality standards in the short term where costs of seed certification are high relative to returns. SIGNIFICANCE The study provides unique quantitative evidence in a nationally representative framework in an African country that returns to seed certification systems in the current setting significantly vary depending on contexts, including agroclimatic conditions.

Year published

2025

Authors

Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Ragasa, Catherine; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Andam, Kwaw S.; Spielman, David J.; Edeh, Hyacinth O.; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Haile, Beliyou; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Omoigui, Lucky O.; Abdoulaye, Tahirou; Kumar, P. Lava; Wossen, Tesfamicheal

Citation

Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Ragasa, Catherine; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Andam, Kwaw S.; Spielman, David J.; Edeh, Hyacinth O.; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Haile, Beliyou; et al. 2025. Seed certification, certified seeds use and yield outcomes in Nigeria: Insights from nationally-representative farm panel data and seed company location data. Agricultural Systems 224(March 2025): 104268. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104268

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Western Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Seed Certification; Seeds; Yields; Data; Agricultural Productivity; Spatial Data; Surveys

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104268 Source record

Project

Seed Equal

Record type

Journal Article

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Journal Article

Miracle seeds: Biased expectations, complementary input use, and the dynamics of smallholder technology adoption

2025Miehe, Caroline; Nabwire, Leocardia; Sparrow, Robert; Spielman, David; Van Campenhout, Bjorn
Details

Miracle seeds: Biased expectations, complementary input use, and the dynamics of smallholder technology adoption

JEL Codes: O33, D84, Q16

Year published

2025

Authors

Miehe, Caroline; Nabwire, Leocardia; Sparrow, Robert; Spielman, David; Van Campenhout, Bjorn

Citation

Miehe, Caroline; Nabwire, Leocardia; Sparrow, Robert; Spielman, David; and Van Campenhout, Bjorn. Miracle seeds: Biased expectations, complementary input use, and the dynamics of smallholder technology adoption. Economic Development and Cultural Change. Article in press. First available online March 13, 2025. https://doi.org/10.1086/735822

Country/Region

Uganda

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Agricultural Technology; Fertilizers; Pesticides; Seed Systems

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Links

https://doi.org/10.1086/735822 Source record

Project

Seed Equal

Record type

Journal Article

Blogs

‘Miracle seeds,’ informational curses? The risk of high expectations for new agricultural technologies
IFPRI Blog
 | 
June 22, 2023

‘Miracle seeds,’ informational curses? The risk of high expectations for new agricultural technologies

By Caroline Miehe, Leocardia Nabwire, Robert Sparrow, David Spielman, and Bjorn Van Campenhout

Using videos to test skewed perceptions of improved crop varieties.

What changed when Ugandan farmers rated input quality and local vendor services
IFPRI Blog
 | 
April 08, 2022

What changed when Ugandan farmers rated input quality and local vendor services

By Bjorn Van Campenhout, Caroline Miehe, David Spielman, and Robert Sparrow

The power of consumer opinion.

What can we really learn from sex-disaggregated data?
IFPRI Blog
 | 
January 11, 2022

What can we really learn from sex-disaggregated data?

By Bjorn Van Campenhout, Els Lecoutere, and David Spielman

Parsing sometimes contradictory responses in household surveys.

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Events

IFPRI @ UNCCD 16th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP16)
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

December 2 to 13, 2024

IFPRI @ UNCCD 16th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP16)

The 16th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP16) to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) will take place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia from December 2 to 13, 2024. IFPRI is pleased to participate in UNCCD COP16, where leaders from governments, the private sector, civil society, and global stakeholders will unite to […]

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

August 2 to 7, 2024

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists

The triennial International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE-2024), centred on the theme “Transformation Towards Sustainable Agri-Food Systems” is scheduled from August 2-7, 2024, in New Delhi, India. The conference offers a distinctive platform, providing a golden opportunity for the agricultural academic institutions and researchers to convene in person, exchange knowledge, and actively contribute to the […]

ICTforAg 2024: Localizing impact
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

May 28, 2024, 9:00 – 5:00 pm

ICTforAg 2024: Localizing impact

Event: May 28, 2024 – 9:00am to 5:00pm EDT. This event explores the localization of ICT, responsible AI in agriculture, the potential for AI to increase farm profitability, empowering citizen science, and harnessing digital solutions for sustainable and regenerative farming practices.

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News

January 27, 2021 | Press Release

European Union gives €1 million to support the Agriculture pillar of the National Economic Recovery Plan for COVID-19 in Rwanda

The European Commission has provided EUR 1 million to IFPRI to support the Ministry of Agriculture in Rwanda to enhance skills in the analysis of public investment priorities & policy options for the COVID-19 recovery period.

December 19, 2019 | In the News

Rwanda government partners with IFPRI programme to accelerate agricultural productivity (Africa Business Communities)

Africa Business Communities published an article on the new IFPRI program, the Rwanda Agricultural Policy Analysis and Capacity Development Program. Rwanda is accelerating its agenda for sustainable development and inclusive growth by reinforcing its emphasis on agriculture, nutrition, and rural transformation. Senior Research Fellow and Head of the new Program, David Spielman said, “The Rwanda […]

December 07, 2019 | In the News

Government launches new plan to stave off malnutrition (The New Times)

The New Times (Rwanda) reported on the new Rwanda Strategy Support Program (RSSP). Developed by IFPRI in collaboration with the government of Rwanda, the program seeks to leverage on evidence and policy analysis to accelerate agricultural transformation in Rwanda. Republished in Africa Business Communities.

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