IFPRI Publications: Journal Articles

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. INTERPRETATION Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

Farmer perceptions, knowledge, and management of fall armyworm in maize production in Uganda

Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith), fall armyworm (FAW), a polyphagous Noctuid pest, was first reported in Uganda in 2016. Farmers were trained to identify and manage the pest, but there was a lack of information on farmer knowledge, perceptions and practices deployed to control it. Therefore, we conducted a survey to assess maize farmers’ knowledge, perceptions and management of the pest during the invasion. We interviewed 1,289 maize farmers from 10 maize-growing agro-ecological zones (AEZ) of Uganda using well-structured questionnaires. The data were analyzed using R version 4.2.3. The respondents faced many constraints, including pests, drought, poor soils and labor constraints. Among the pests, FAW was ranked by most (85%) of the respondents as the number one pest problem in maize, and some farmers reported having noticed it way back in 2014. By 2018, more than 90% of the farmers had seen or heard about FAW, and about 80% saw FAW in their fields. The most common FAW symptoms reported by maize farmers were windowing, near tunnel damage, and holes on the cobs. The developmental stages of FAW identified by farmers included eggs (10%), young larvae (78.7%), mature larvae (73.5%) and adult moths (6.7%). Insecticides were the major control tactic, although some farmers used plant extracts, hand-picking, sand, and ash. Farmers sourced information on FAW from various sources, including fellow farmers, radio/TV, extension agents, input dealers, print media, research and NGO extension. There is a need to package clear and uniform information for the farmers and to develop and promote a sustainable solution for FAW management, including harnessing biological control and cultural practices.

Perceptions towards management of acute malnutrition by community health volunteers in northern Kenya

Child undernutrition is a persistent challenge in arid and semi-arid areas due to low and erratic rainfall, recurrent droughts and food insecurity. In these settings, caregivers face several challenges in accessing health services for sick and/or malnourished children, including long distances to health facilities, harsh terrain, and lack of money to pay for transportation costs to the health facilities, leading to low service coverage and sub-optimal treatment outcomes. To address these challenges and optimize treatment outcomes, the World Health Organization recommends utilizing community health volunteers (CHVs) to manage acute malnutrition in the community. This study explored the perceptions of community members regarding acute malnutrition treatment by CHVs in Turkana and Isiolo counties in Kenya. The study utilized a cross-sectional study design and included a purposive sample of caregivers of children, CHVs, officers who trained and supervised CHVs and community leaders in the intervention area. Focus group discussions and key informant interviews were used to explore perceptions towards the management of acute malnutrition by CHVs. Generally, caregivers and CHVs perceived the intervention to be beneficial as it readily addressed acute malnutrition treatment needs in the community. The intervention was perceived to be acceptable, effective, and easily accessible. The community health structure provided a platform for commodity supply and management and CHV support supervision. This was a major enabler in implementing the intervention. The intervention faced operational and systemic challenges that should be considered before scale-up.

Famine in Gaza, questions for research and preventive action

The ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza is unprecedented in terms of the share of the population experiencing acute food insecurity and famine and the speed of the onset of the crisis. Research can help understand and anticipate the long-term impacts of the conflict on people and livelihoods, design more effective humanitarian support systems and identify options for creating resilient post-conflict livelihoods.

Evidence of potential impacts of a nutrition-sensitive agroecology program in Andhra Pradesh, India, on dietary diversity, nutritional status, and child development

Introduction While a number of studies have examined the nutritional impacts of agroecological interventions, few have examined impacts on child development, maternal and child anemia, and men’s dietary diversity. Moreover, there have been few such evaluations at scale. We evaluated the impact of a large-scale, multi-component food-based nutrition intervention involving homestead food production, nutrition counselling, cooking demonstrations, and crop planning exercises. Methods A cross-sectional assessment was conducted in 2021–2022 of 50 intervention villages where the nutrition-sensitive agroecology program had been implemented since 2018 and 79 control villages where only the agroecology program had been implemented. Data on self-reported dietary intake, caregiver-reported early child development, anthropometric measurements, and hemoglobin concentrations were collected using standardized procedures by trained Nutrition Farming Fellows, who were also responsible for implementing the program. Results A sample of 3,511 households (1,121 intervention and 2,390 control) participated in the survey. Dietary diversity scores (DDS) among women and men were mean (SD) 6.53 (±1.62) and 6.16 (±1.65), respectively, in intervention villages and 5.81 (±1.58) and 5.39 (±1.61), respectively, in control villages (p<0.01). DDS among children 6–24 months of age in intervention and control villages was 2.99 (±1.52) and 2.73 (±1.62), respectively (p<0.01). Children <2 years of age were less likely to be anemic in intervention versus control villages (59% versus 69%, p<0.01). Children 18–35 months age in intervention villages had higher child development scores than children in control villages (all p<0.05). Conclusion Nutrition-sensitive agroecological programs may be effective in improving diets, nutrition, and child development in rural India.

Impact of India’s Farm Science Centers (Krishi Vigyan Kendras) on farm households’ economic welfare: An evidence from a national farmer survey

This study examines the impact of access to India’s farm science centers (Krishi Vigyan Kendras, or KVKs) on agricultural households’ welfare using household data from the nationally representative Situation Assessment Survey of Agricultural Households conducted by India’s National Sample Survey Office in 2013. Employing different matching techniques and endogenous switching regression models, it was observed that the KVKs have a positive and statistically significant impact on agricultural households’ economic welfare, although, that impact is heterogeneous. Further, the investments made in expansion of India’s network of KVKs have been quite remunerative, as the benefit- to-cost ratio of expenditure on KVKs ranges from 8–12. Moreover, present findings suggest that expanding rural formal credit markets and promoting literacy can maximize the potential impact of KVKs on agricultural households’ economic welfare.

Soil quality evaluation for irrigated agroecological zones of Punjab, Pakistan: The Luenberger indicator approach

This article describes the construction of the Luenberger soil quality indicator (SQI) using data on crop yield, non-soil inputs, and soil profile from three irrigated agroecological zones of Punjab, Pakistan, namely, rice–wheat, maize–wheat–mix, and cotton–mix zones. Plot level data are used to construct a soil quality indicator by estimating directional distance functions within a data envelopment analysis (DEA) framework. We find that the SQI and crop yield relationships exhibit diminishing returns to improving soil quality levels. Using the constructed SQI values, we estimate linear regression models to generate weights that could be used directly to aggregate individual soil attributes into soil quality indicators without the necessity of fitting a frontier to the crop production data. For wheat and rice production, we find that SQI is most sensitive to changes in soil electrical conductivity (EC) and potassium (K). The SQI has direct relevance for site-specific decision-making problems where policymakers need to price land resources and conservation services to achieve agricultural and environmental goals.

Gender bias in customer perceptions: The case of agro-input dealers in Uganda

CONTEXT Faced with incomplete and imperfect information, economic actors rely predominantly on perceptions and often base decisions on heuristics prone to bias. Gender bias in perceptions favoring men has been found in a variety of settings and may be an important reason why some sectors remain dominated by men and gender gaps in terms of benefits persist. In modernizing food supply chains in a patriarchal context such as the maize sub-sector in Uganda, this may result in women facing significant barriers to entry. OBJECTIVE Using a unique dataset of ratings of agro-input dealers provided by smallholder farmers in their vicinity, we test if farmers perceive male-managed agro-input shops differently than agro-input shops managed by women. METHODS We use a dyadic dataset of farmer-dealer links to explicitly control for quality differences between male- and female-managed agro-input shops and use the fact that a farmer has generally rated more than one agro-input to account for farmer-level heterogeneity using fixed-effects regression. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS We find that farmers rate male-managed agro-input outlets higher on a range of attributes related to the dealership in general, as well as on the quality of inputs sold by the dealer. After controlling for both dealer and farmer level confounders, we conclude that gender bias in customer perceptions persists. SIGNIFICANCE Our results suggest a comparative disadvantage and an important entry barrier for female agro-input dealers. The gender bias may also affect social outcomes like women’s capabilities, aspirations, and empowerment in seed systems but also impairs development at more aggregate levels: as a considerable share of agro-input shops is managed by women, this finding may impose challenges for varietal turnover, hindering agricultural productivity, food security, and rural transformation. Policies and interventions designed to challenge gender norms and customs are needed to correct this bias.

What I say depends on how you ask: Experimental evidence of the effect of framing on the measurement of attitudes

We use a survey experiment to document the presence of framing effects in the measurement of attitudes. Next, using standard techniques for generating aggregate indices, we find that statement framing can meaningfully influence the relationship of the index with relevant covariates—in some cases changing the magnitude, statistical significance, and even the sign of the estimated relationship. We conclude by discussing how randomizing statement framing across respondents can help address bias in the measurement of attitudes.

Book review: Matias E. Margulis, Shadow negotiators: How UN organizations shape the rules of world trade for food security Stanford University Press, 2023

Increasing production diversity and diet quality: Evidence from Bangladesh

In the context of rural Bangladesh, we assess whether agriculture training alone, nutrition behavior communication change (BCC) alone, combined agriculture training and nutrition BCC, or agriculture training and nutrition BCC combined with gender sensitization improve: (a) production diversity, either on household fields or through crop, livestock, or aquaculture activities carried out near the family homestead; and (b) diet diversity and the quality of household diets. All treatment arms were implemented by government employees. Implementation quality was high. No treatment increased production diversification of crops grown on fields. Treatment arms with agricultural training did increase the number of different crops grown in homestead gardens and the likelihood of any egg, dairy, or fish production but the magnitudes of these effect sizes were small. All agricultural treatment arms had, in percentage terms, large effects on measures of levels of homestead production. However, because baseline levels of production were low, the magnitude of these changes in absolute terms was modest. Nearly all treatment arms improved measures of food consumption and diet with the largest effects found when nutrition and agriculture training were combined. Relative to treatments combining agriculture and nutrition training, we find no significant impact of adding the gender sensitization on our measures of production diversity or diet quality. Interventions that combine agricultural training and nutrition BCC can improve both production diversity and diet quality, but they are not a panacea. They can, however, contribute toward better diets of rural households.

Social protection amid a crisis: New evidence from South Africa’s Older Person’s Grant

This study estimates the effects of South Africa’s Older Person’s Grant on well-being amid the COVID-19 pandemic. With household-level data collected before and during the pandemic, it leverages the age-eligibility threshold of the grant to estimate its effects on households in both periods. Prior to the pandemic, this study finds that grant receipt substantially improves economic well-being and decreases adult hunger at the household level. During the first 18 months of the pandemic, this study finds larger effects on both economic well-being and hunger than prior to the pandemic. In particular, recipient households were less likely to report running out of money for food and hunger among either adults or children. These results, which are stronger when pandemic-related lockdown policies are in place and for more vulnerable households, provide critical insight into the effectiveness of one of the world’s most well-known cash-transfer programs during a massive global health crisis.

Study protocol to assess aflatoxin M1 health risks versus benefits of dairy consumption in Ethiopian children: An epidemiological trial and risk-benefit analysis

Introduction In Sidama, Ethiopia, animal-source foods can be difficult to access. Milk has important nutrients for child growth, but carries the risk of aflatoxin M1 (AFM1) contamination. AFM1 is a metabolite of the mycotoxin aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) in dairy feed; cows secrete AFM1 in milk when their feed contains AFB1 produced by Aspergillus fungi in maize, nuts and oilseeds. It is unknown whether AFM1 compromises child growth and health. Methods and analysis This protocol paper describes our study in Sidama to determine the impact of milk consumption and AFM1 on child growth in the first 18 months of life. We will collect baseline and end-line data on dairy production, socioeconomic and nutritional factors of 1000 dairy-owning households with children ages 6–18 months at baseline; and gather samples of milk and dairy feed and child anthropometrics. We will conduct phone interviews every 6 months to ascertain changes in practices or child health. Dairy feed will be tested for AFB1; milk for AFM1, pathogens and nutrients. Controlling for herd size, socioeconomic, nutritional and behavioural factors, we will determine the association between child anthropometrics and milk consumption, as well as AFM1 exposure. We will examine whether AFM1 exposure affects child growth in the first 18 months of life, and weigh the benefits and risks of milk consumption. Ethics and dissemination The protocol is approved by the Institutional Review Boards of the Ethiopian Public Health Institute (EPHI-IRB-481–2022), Michigan State University (STUDY00007996) and International Food Policy Research Institute (DSGD-23–0102). Written informed consent will be obtained from all participants, who may withdraw from the study at any time. Confidentiality of collected data will be given high priority during each stage of data handling. The study’s findings will be disseminated through stakeholder workshops, local and international conferences, journal articles and technical reports.

Rural household vulnerability and COVID-19: Evidence from India

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected vulnerable households’ livelihoods in developing countries. Using high-frequency phone survey data from the World Bank, we assess rural Indian households’ vulnerability and poverty status during the pandemic. Results reveal that over three-fifths of Indian rural households are vulnerable to poverty in the context of COVID-19, despite India’s evident progress in mitigating poverty in the pre-pandemic era. Poverty plays a major role in accounting for variations in household vulnerability; however, the impact of risks on household welfare is not negligible. On average, households with more members, older household heads, and more outmigrants are more vulnerable to poverty during the pandemic. The impacts of the gender of the household head, access to masks, consumption loans, and COVID-related information are nevertheless insignificant. Results stress the urgent necessity of deploying concerted interventions to strengthen household vulnerability in rural India.

Consumer food safety awareness and demand for fluid milk: A case study from India

ABSTRACT: Despite significant improvements in consumers’ food safety awareness, the literature provides little or no evidence of the impact of food safety awareness on the quantity of fluid milk consumers purchased. This is especially true for India’s consumers, where the economy is changing rapidly regarding food marketing, incomes, urbanization, and increased demand for food safety.The study is based on primary data from a survey of consumers from urban and peri-urban districts in India. The survey collected information on socioeconomic characteristics, dairy consumption, purchasing patterns, and food safety awareness. This study first creates a food safety awareness (FSA) index to measure consumers’ awareness of food safety attitudes and perceptions. It investigates the factors affecting consumers’ food safety awareness and FSA’s impact on fluid milk demand. The study uses a newly developed impact evaluation method, continuous treatment matching estimation, and dose-response functions (DRFs) to assess the impact of FSA on consumers’ fluid milk purchases. Findings show that educational attainment, sources of information on food safety, age, and gender of the head of the household significantly influenced consumers’ food safety awareness. Further, the study finds that food safety awareness positively impacts the demand for fluid milk. After controlling for milk prices and family income, Indian consumers aware of and adopt seven or more food safety habits or practices are likely to demand more fluid milk. Results are robust to specifications, income levels, and the location of households. The link between food safety awareness and the quantity of milk purchased implies a latent consumer demand for food safety. Any consumer awareness programs and policies supporting milk and its products’ hygienic production will likely increase demand for milk and dairy products. At a policy level, credible systems can be put in place for food certification and labeling, which enhance the availability of safe and hygienic food.

Land as a binding constraint to cluster-based development in Ethiopia: To cluster or not to cluster?

As one of the agglomeration models targeting cluster-based rural development, cluster farming has been promoted in Ethiopia and it is already reported to have significant welfare implications, but participation rates are not as high as expected. This study examines the role of land as a constraint to the development of cluster-based development in Ethiopia both using extensive and intensive measures of cluster farming. The study further disaggregates farm households based on their farm size to better understand potential heterogeneities in the relationship between farm size and cluster farming. The paper also documents other household socio-economic and network characteristics that may matter in cluster farming. Methods We use a large-scale farm household data from 3,969 households coupled with some expert insights on cluster farming in Ethiopia. Households in the study areas grow major staples such as maize, wheat, teff, malt barley, and sesame in four main regions of Ethiopia. We employ a double hurdle model to examine both the decision to participate and the extent to which households participate in cluster farming. By extent of participation, we refer to the amount of land and share of land farm households contribute to cluster farming. For robustness purposes, we also estimate the Tobit and Linear Probability Models. Results We show a positive association between farm size and cluster farming both at the extensive and intensive margins. This relationship turns negative for large amounts of land. This shows that cluster farming increases with farm size up to a threshold beyond which it declines. We also find suggestive evidence that participation rates are lower for small-scale farms, but also declines for large-scale farms. In addition, we show that access to information and network characteristics also matter in enabling cluster farming. Conclusion The findings of this study are relevant in the framework of plans to upscale the cluster-based development initiative in Ethiopia. Attention to landholding issues is key and may be an important area where policy action can be geared to boost cluster farming. Moreover, our results inform potential targeting plans that aim to increase the participation of small-scale farmers who are usually the intended targets of such programs.

Dynamics of comparative advantage in India’s agricultural exports

Cash transfers and women’s agency: Evidence from Pakistan’s BISP program

Pandemic experiences and the post-lockdown economic recovery: Evidence from China

Does relative deprivation condition the effects of social protection programs on political support? Experimental evidence from Pakistan

Could perceived relative economic standing affect citizens’ support for political leaders and institutions? We explore this question by examining Pakistan’s national unconditional cash transfer program, the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP). Leveraging a regression discontinuity approach using BISP’s administrative data and an original survey experiment, we find that perceptions of relative deprivation color citizen reactions to social protection. When citizens do not feel relatively deprived, receiving cash transfers has little sustained effect on individuals’ reported level of support for their political system and its leaders. However, when citizens feel relatively worse off, those receiving cash transfers become more politically satisfied while those denied transfers become more politically disgruntled. Moreover, the magnitude of the reduction in political support among non-beneficiaries is larger than the magnitude of the increase in political support among beneficiaries. This has important implications for our understanding of the political ramifications of rising perceived inequality.

Predicting climate smart agriculture (CSA) practices using machine learning: A prime exploratory survey

The paper aim and novelty is the development of technology-based tools able of providing realistic insights on farmers’ future adaptation decisions by developing an ML algorithm to predict Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) practices and highlight modeling challenges to account for. And proposing a theoretical approach that grounds the selection of data (i.e. input and response variables) with well stablished theories on adaptation decision making process; with the aim of demonstrating ways of improving data science and ML publication quality in the field of agricultural economics. Data used are farmers’ socio-economic characteristics, farms’ features, agro-ecology’s features, climate indicators (temperature, rain, etc.), etc. In this paper, the optimized Gradient Boosting ML was trained and tested using households’ level data from Rakai district in Central Region of Uganda. The modeling approach was framed in climate adaptation analytical frameworks. Data extracted allows generating CSA clusters giving two response variables, used separately to train two different algorithms. The developed CSA predictive algorithm demonstrates that adaptation practices can be predicted using households’ level parameters. And both models are revealed to have fair performance metrics, with algorithm reaching up to 60% of accuracy. To further improve accuracy scores, deep-learning algorithms are suggested in future research. The developed CSA prediction algorithm could be used at both households and value chain levels, to select appropriate adaptation strategies, to plan adaptation, to estimate adaptation costs and develop investment’ plans.

Impact of dairy cooperatives on milk productivity: Evidence from rural Bihar

Farmers’ willingness to pay for smart farming technologies: Evidence from a smart drip irrigation technology in North China

Smart farming technologies (SFTs) can increase yields and reduce the environmental impacts of farming by improving the efficient use of inputs. This paper is to estimate farmers’ preference and willingness to pay (WTP) for a well-defined SFT, smart drip irrigation (SDI) technology.This study conducted a discrete choice experiment (DCE) among 1,300 maize farmers in North China to understand their WTP for various functions of SDI using mixed logit (MIXL) models.The results show that farmers have a strong preference for SDI in general and its specific functions of smart sensing and smart control. However, farmers do not have a preference for the function of region-level agronomic planning. Farmers’ preferences for different functions of SDI are heterogeneous. Their preference was significantly associated with their education, experience of being village cadres and using computers, household income and holding of land and machines. Further analysis show that farmers’ WTP for functions facilitated by hardware is close to the estimated prices, whereas their WTP for functions wholly or partially facilitated by software is substantially lower than the estimated prices.Findings from the empirical study lead to policy implications for enhancing the design of SFTs by integrating software and hardware and optimizing agricultural extension strategies for SFTs with digital techniques such as videos.This study provides initial insights into understanding farmers’ preferences and WTP for specific functions of SFTs with a DCE.

Missing Black males among preterm births in the US, 1995 to 2019

Background In the US, non-Hispanic (NH) Black birthing persons show a two-fold greater risk of fetal death relative to NH white birthing persons. Since males more than females show a greater risk of fetal death, such loss in utero may affect the sex composition of live births born preterm (PTB; <37 weeks gestational age). We examine US birth data from 1995 to 2019 to determine whether the ratio of male to female preterm (i.e., PTB sex ratios) among NH Black births falls below that of NH whites and Hispanics. Methods We acquired data on all live births in the US from January 1995 to December 2019. We arrayed 63 million live births into 293 “conception cohort” months of which 2,475,928 NH Black, 5,746,953 NH white, and 2,511,450 Hispanic infants were PTB. We used linear regression methods to identify trend and seasonal patterns in PTB sex ratios. We also examined subgroup differences in PTB sex ratios (e.g., advanced maternal ages, twin gestations, and narrower gestational age ranges). Results The mean PTB sex ratio for NH Black births over the entire test period (1.06, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.05, 1.07) is much lower than that for NH white births (1.18, 95% CI: 1.17, 1.19). NH Black PTB sex ratios are especially low for twins and for births to mothers 35 years or older. Only NH white PTB sex ratios show a trend over the test period. Conclusions Analysis of over 10 million PTBs reveals a persistently low male PTB frequency among NH Black conception cohorts relative to NH white cohorts. Low PTB sex ratios among NH Black births concentrate among subgroups that show an elevated risk of fetal death. PTB sex ratios may serve as an indicator of racial/ethnic and subgroup differences in fetal death, especially among male gestations.

Spatiotemporal expansion and methane emissions of rice-crayfish farming systems in Jianghan Plain, China

Addressing gender inequalities and strengthening women’s agency to create more climate-resilient and sustainable food systems

Climate change affects every aspect of the food system, including all nodes along agri-food value chains from production to consumption, the food environments in which people live, and outcomes, such as diets and livelihoods. Men and women often have specific roles and responsibilities within food systems, yet structural inequalities (formal and informal) limit women’s access to resources, services, and agency. These inequalities affect the ways in which men and women experience and are affected by climate change. In addition to gender, other social factors are at play, such as age, education, marital status, and health and economic conditions. To date, most climate change policies, investments, and interventions do not adequately integrate gender. If climate-smart and climate-resilient interventions do not adequately take gender differences into account, they might exacerbate gender inequalities in food systems by, for instance, increasing women’s labor burden and time poverty, reducing their access to and control over income and assets, and reducing their decision-making power. At the same time, women’s contributions are critical to make food systems more resilient to the negative impacts of climate change, given their specialized knowledge, skills and roles in agri-food systems, within the household, at work and in their communities. Increasing the resilience of food systems requires going beyond addressing gendered vulnerabilities to climate change to create an enabling environment that supports gender equality and women’s empowerment, by removing structural barriers and rigid gender norms, and building equal power dynamics, as part of a process of gender transformative change. For this to happen, more research is needed to prioritize structural barriers that need to be removed and to identify effective gender transformative approaches.

An algorithm to assess calcium bioavailability from foods

Background The recommended calcium intakes to meet calcium requirements at various ages are based on average population absorption values. Absorption is altered by physiology, the calcium load, and type of food. The calcium intake necessary, therefore, to meet requirements depends upon diet composition, through bioavailability. Objective The objectives of this study was to improve predictions of calcium bioavailability on the basis of the food matrix. Methods We modeled calcium absorption data from individual foods, beverages, and fortified foods that were determined with calcium isotopic tracers and compared with milk as a referent to adjust for physiologic differences of the host. Results Data from 496 observations were modeled to develop a predictive algorithm for calcium bioavailability in adults on the basis of calcium load and oxalate and phytate loads, which represent the 2 main inhibitors of calcium absorption. Conclusions This algorithm will be helpful in assessing calcium availability from the food supply, for developing diets for individuals and research cohorts, and for designing policies and interventions to address inadequate calcium intake for populations.

Fostering social inclusion in development-oriented digital food system interventions

CONTEXT Digital innovations can enhance the participation of often-marginalized social groups – including women and resource-poor farmers in low- and middle-income countries – in sustainable, profitable food systems. But digital interventions can also reinforce existing inequities by further increasing the competitive advantage of user groups privileged with literacy, access to smartphones, or high investment capacity. To ensure that the digital transformation in the Global South leaves no one behind, therefore, deliberate efforts are needed to promote the inclusivity of emerging digital innovations. To date, however, there is a lack of practical guidelines and tools to critically assess, demonstrate, and enhance the inclusivity of digital food systems interventions. Too often, inclusivity remains a blurry concept and distant objective. In result, digital development researchers and practitioners have limited incentives for investing time and effort into safeguarding inclusivity. OBJECTIVE With this short communication, we intend to contribute to future, practice-oriented discussions about social inclusivity in development-oriented digital interventions for sustainable food systems. We provide a critical reflection on the current discourse around digital inclusion in development context and outline challenges and opportunities for considering inclusivity in the design and deployment of digital food system innovations. METHODS Drawing on literature as well as the authors’ own experiences with the design and implementation of digital innovations within research-for-development, we highlight ‘blind spots’ in the current discourse around digital inclusion in low- and middle-income country context. We then develop practical suggestions for overcoming these limitations. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS We propose a concrete agenda for enabling researchers and other innovation stakeholders, including donors, to contribute to more inclusive digital food system innovation in low- and middle-income countries. First, a standard concept and procedure is required for transparently assessing the inclusivity of digital services. Second, as many digital development stakeholders work under resource constraints, simple design tools can help them effectively consider social inclusion criteria during the design of digital solutions. Lastly, a stronger emphasis on inclusivity is required throughout the research-for-development system, ensuring that design processes themselves are inclusive, rather than considering only the final digital products. SIGNIFICANCE As the importance of digital innovation keeps growing within the wider agricultural development discourse, this article helps researchers and practitioners gain conceptual clarity on the goal of digital inclusion. Through concrete suggestions on how inclusivity could be considered in practice, the article promotes a more equitable, inclusive digital transformation of food systems.

A participatory framework for prioritizing climate-smart agriculture innovations in rice-based systems: A case study of Mali

Alleviating the climate-related constraints faced by agri-food systems in sub-Saharan Africa requires an accelerated adoption of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) innovations by farmers. However, little is known about the best-bet (most appropriate) CSA innovations, and the enabling conditions for their widespread adoption in a given biophysical and socioeconomic context. The objectives of this study were to identify the best-bet CSA innovations and the barriers, incentive mechanisms, and roles of institutions in widespread adoption in the four rice growing environments in Mali (irrigated lowlands, rainfed lowlands, rainfed uplands, and submergence systems). Data were collected from stakeholder’s consultations to assess CSA innovations using four climate-smart performance indicators (productivity, income, adaptation, and mitigation) and four implementation feasibility indicators (technology cost, technical feasibility, gender inclusivity, and market demand). The best-bet CSA innovations included drought- and submergence-tolerant rice varieties, perennial rice, and rice-vegetable rotation in irrigated lowlands; drought-tolerant rice varieties, rice-tuber, rice-vegetable, and rice-legume rotations in rainfed lowlands; drought-tolerant rice varieties and mulching in rainfed uplands; and submergence-tolerant rice varieties, perennial rice, and integrated rice-fish in submergence systems. The average perceived adoption level of CSA innovations by farmers in the rice-growing environments was low, ranging from 7 to 19% due to the lack of finance, technical knowledge, machinery, fertilizer, and quality seeds. Governments, farmers’ organizations, and research and academic institutions were identified as critical actors in the wide spread adoption of CSA innovations. The framework used in this study can be used to identify and invest into locally relevant best-bet CSA innovation packages.

Revisiting the size–productivity relationship with imperfect measures of production and plot size

Monitoring smallholder agricultural productivity growth, one of the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals, rests on accurate measures of crop production and land area. Existing methods and protocols for measuring smallholder production and plot size are prone to various sources and forms of mismeasurement. Inaccuracies in production and land area measurement are likely to distort descriptive and predictive inferences. We examine the sensitivity of empirical assessments of the relationship between agricultural productivity and land area to alternative measurement protocols. We implement six production and six land area measurement protocols, and show that most of these protocols differ systematically in their accuracy. We find that an apparent inverse size–productivity relationship in our data is fully explained by measurement error in both production and plot size. Moreover, we show that some of the previously used “gold standard” measures are themselves prone to nonclassical measurement error, and hence can generate spurious inverse size–productivity findings. Our results also show that slight improvements in the precision of objective measures significantly reduce the inferential bias associated with the size–productivity relationship.

Reduce, reuse, redeem: Deposit-refund recycling programs in the presence of alternatives

Understanding how consumers make recycling decisions is crucial in crafting sustainable recycling policies. We estimate consumer preferences and willingness to pay for current beverage container recycling methods, including curbside pick-up services, drop-off at government-subsidized recycling centers, and drop-off at non-subsidized centers. Using a representative online and telephone survey of California households, we estimate a revealed preference discrete choice model that identifies the key attributes explaining consumers’ beverage container disposal decisions, including the ability to receive a deposit refund (paid to consumers only if they recycle at drop-off centers) and the effort associated with bringing recyclable materials to recycling centers. Additionally, we use counterfactual policy analysis to show that increasing the refund amount increases overall household recycling rates. Infra–marginal households who are on the boundary between taking containers to recycling centers and recycling using curbside pick-up, namely white households and households with higher educational attainment, see the largest changes in consumer surplus generated by increasing refund payments. Conversely, we show that eliminating government-subsidized drop-off centers does not significantly alter consumer surplus for any major demographic group, and has little impact on whether a household chooses to recycle.

The importance and determinants of purchases in rural food consumption in Africa: implications for food security strategies

We analyze rural households’ purchases of food (cereals and non-cereals) in Sub-Saharan Africa using nationally representative data with 65,000 observations covering 7 countries over a decade. We distinguish between three strata of countries: lower stratum in income and urbanization, middle stratum, and upper stratum. The paper breaks ground by the breadth and time length of the sample. We find that purchases form the majority of rural food consumption whether in favorable or unfavorable agroecological zones and over country and income strata and for most food products. Rural nonfarm employment (as a cash source) plays an important role in household food purchases across all study countries and food products. Policy implications include the importance of food purchase markets and supply chains to and in rural areas as well as nonfarm employment.

Uncovering the gap: Assessing the compliance of the Canadian food availability with dietary recommendations and its impact on the environment

From food subsidies to cash transfers: Assessing economy-wide benefits and trade-offs in Egypt

Food is a vital part of poor households’ budgets and so subsidizing staple foods would appear to be an obvious pro-poor policy. Indeed, most countries in North Africa have prioritized large national subsidy programs for staple foods and fuels as their main social safety net. However, these programs account for significant shares of government spending and often drive fiscal deficits, especially when import prices rise. In this paper we use a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model to evaluate the trade-offs between reducing poverty and managing fiscal balances. The modeling framework allows us to measure the efficiency costs of subsidies compared to cash transfers – switching to the latter is an emerging regional trend. We analyze these issues through a detailed case study of Egypt, where efforts to replace food subsidies with cash transfers is already underway. Data is also available in Egypt to design scenarios that realistically reflect potential targeting effectiveness and administrative costs. We show that replacing broad food subsidies with targeted cash transfers of roughly equivalent fiscal costs can improve the welfare of the poorest households, but the continuation of fiscal deficits results in a deceleration of economic growth. The latter gradually reduces welfare gains for the poor and leads to substantial welfare losses for middle-income households who lose access to subsidies without benefitting from cash transfers. Our findings highlight the political challenges facing subsidy reform programs.

Estimating seed demand in the presence of market frictions: evidence from an auction experiment in Nigeria

This paper measures the effect of seed quality misperceptions on bidding behavior and demand for high-quality seed using an information-provision experiment within an incentive-compatible Vickery Second Price (SPA) auction mechanism that mimics seed purchasing decisions in the presence of seed market frictions. We find that most individuals are prone to quality misperception and revise their bids upwards (downwards) in response to positive (negative) quality signals. In addition, by exploiting random variation in the timing of cash grants, we show that imperfect information influences farmer seed valuation, even in the presence of potentially binding liquidity constraints. We also demonstrate that the provision of quality information does not fully resolve quality misperceptions. We then show that unresolved or persistent misperception is severe enough to distort bidding behavior, and ignoring it could lead to biased willingness-to-pay estimates. Our findings have important implications both for improving inference related to the identification and estimation of willingness to pay for quality seed in the presence of market frictions, and for the design of seed sector polices in developing countries.

Intrahousehold preference heterogeneity and demand for labor-saving agricultural technology

Evaluations of agricultural technologies rarely consider the implications of how adoption may alter the labor allocation of different individuals within a household. We examine intrahousehold decision-making dynamics that shape smallholder households’ decision to use mechanical rice transplanting (MRT), a technology that disproportionately influences demand for women’s labor. To study the adoption decision, we experimentally estimate the willingness to pay for MRT services both at the individual and household level. We find that women value MRT more than men, especially when they participate in transplanting on their own farms. This preference heterogeneity is evident in the unconditional differences between women’s and men’s valuation and differences conditional on their individual observable characteristics. Despite having stronger preferences for MRT, women have less influence on the household’s technology adoption decision than men. This differential influence over the MRT adoption decision reflects the intrahousehold power structure: in households where women have less control over assets, they also have less influence over the MRT adoption decision. Our results highlight how technological changes interact with unobserved, gender-based intrahousehold power relations to influence agricultural production decisions and, by extension, the gendered allocation of labor and welfare of women.

Prevalence, trends, and inequality in noncommunicable diseases in Bangladesh: Evidence from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys 2011 and 2017–2018

We investigated the change of the prevalence of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in Bangladesh from 2011 to 2018 across different socioeconomic groups as well as the factors associated with the changes in prevalence. We used the two waves of the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 2011 and 2017–2018. Modified Poisson regression model was used to estimate the prevalence rate and ratio of NCDs and to test the association with different demographic and socioeconomic variables. The study found an upward trend of NCDs from 2011 to 2017 in which overweight and obesity, hypertension, and diabetes increased by 1.8, 1.5, and 1.1 times, respectively. In 2011, people from the richest households had 5.6 higher odds of being overweight compared to the poorest, which was reduced to 3.0 in 2017. However, the increment for overweight and hypertension was the highest among the poor and manual workers from 2011 to 2017. The age-adjusted prevalence ratio of overweight increased 4.4 times for the poorest, compared to 1.7 times for the richest. For manual workers, overweight increased 3.8 times, whereas hypertension increased by 2.4 times. The pooled analysis revealed that participants from the richest households have the highest risk of NCDs, with 3.3 times for overweight, 2.3 times for diabetes, and 1.3 times for hypertension, compared to the poorest. However, the prevalence of NCDs is rising quickly among the low socioeconomic groups in Bangladesh, narrowing the gap with higher socioeconomic groups. Our findings call for immediate policy interventions and targeted programs to curb NCD escalation in Bangladesh.

Impact of farm subsidies on global agricultural productivity

The agriculture sector receives substantial fiscal subsidies in various forms, including through programs that are linked to production and others that are decoupled. As the sector has reached the technology frontier in production over the last three decades or so, particularly in high‐ and middle‐income countries, it is intriguing to investigate the impact of subsidies on productivity at aggregate level. This study examines the impact of subsidies on productivity growth in agriculture globally using a long time series on the nominal rate of assistance for 42 countries that covers over 80% of agricultural production. The econometric results show heterogenous effects from various subsidy instruments depending on the choice of productivity measure. Regression results suggest a strong positive effect of input subsidies on both output growth and labor productivity. A positive but relatively small impact of output subsidies is found on output growth only.

Water-energy-food planning and operations framework for river basins with a case study on the Blue Nile

Infrastructure in river basins is essential to achieving several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including SDG 2 on zero hunger, SDG 6 on water and sanitation, and SDG 7 on affordable and clean energy. However, important tradeoffs and synergies need to be navigated across these goals as both water and resources for infrastructure investments are limited. In transboundary river basins, such tradeoffs can transcend countries, creating a complex, interconnected system of water-energy-food linkages. With increasing pressures on the Blue Nile’s water resources from population and economic growth and climate change, an analytical framework for joint planning of these essential human development goals at a fine temporal resolution and considering multi-national priorities can enhance the potential to achieve water, energy, and food security. In this study, we develop and apply a framework for water resources planning in the Blue Nile using four steps: (1) understanding the water-energy-food nexus management landscape through stakeholder engagement and literature review; (2) developing a detailed daily simulator that captures major nexus components and objectives at a fine temporal scale; (3) linking the simulator to an Artificial intelligence-based search algorithm to design efficient agricultural and dam operation portfolios considering national and sectoral priorities; and (4) presenting the results using interactive visualization tools to facilitate dialogue and support decisions. Our results identify efficient operation plans for large dams on the Blue Nile for alternative cropping patterns in expanded irrigation areas in Sudan that minimize tradeoffs across water, energy, and food objectives.

Women’s seed entrepreneurship in aquaculture, maize, and poultry value chains in Ghana, Kenya, and Tanzania

Seed systems are essential to bring good genetic material to farmers. Women farmers, however, have benefited less than men farmers from seed systems in low and middle income countries. We identify factors that inhibit and promote women’s success in seed businesses through three case studies of women’s and men’s entrepreneurship across seed-related value chains and country contexts: tilapia seed production in Ghana, marketing and trading of improved maize and sorghum seeds in Kenya, and chicken seed dissemination in Tanzania. Applying a gender lens, we use key informant interviews and focus group discussions to analyze women’s and men’s motivations to engage in seed businesses, the challenges they confront to start and build their enterprises, and prospects for sustainability and continued success. We use quantitative data to characterize the levels of empowerment of the agripreneurs sampled. For women, the results show that the social normative context of the sector is critical. Time flexibility and profitability are important considerations for women’s engagement. Furthermore, across all three country cases, family and external support are frequently key to women’s participation and success in seed agripreneurship. The article discusses the importance of government bodies, NGOs, and donors in challenging the normative context around gender resource gaps, as well as provide technical packages and training to develop business acumen. Supporting change of restrictive gender norms in non-threatening ways – such as ICTs – is key.

Growth patterns of preterm and small for gestational age children during the first 10 years of life

Background: Preterm and small for gestational age (SGA) remain significant public health concerns worldwide. Yet limited evidence exists on their growth patterns during childhood from low-or middle-income countries. Objectives: We investigated the postnatal growth patterns of preterm and SGA compared to term appropriate for gestational age (AGA) children from birth to 10–11y, and examined the impact of birth status on child nutritional status during the school age years. Methods: Children born to women who participated in a double-blinded randomized controlled trial of preconception micronutrient supplementation in Vietnam were classified into three groups: preterm AGA (n = 130), full-term SGA (n = 165) and full-term AGA (n = 1,072). Anthropometric data (weight and height) were collected prospectively at birth, 3, 6, 12, 18, 24 months and at 6–7 and 10–11y. We used ANOVA and multiple regression models to examine the differences in growth patterns from birth to 10–11y as well as child undernutrition and overnutrition by birth status. Results: Children who were born preterm exhibited rapid postnatal growth, but still had lower HAZ at 1y and 2y and showed catch up to the AGA group at 6y. Compared to those born AGA, SGA infants had higher risk of thinness (BMIZ < −2) at 2y and 6y (adjusted Odds Ratio, AOR [95% CI] 2.5 [1.0, 6.1] and 2.6 [1.4, 4.6], respectively); this risk reduced at 10–11y (1.6 [0.9, 2.8]). The risk of stunting (HAZ < −2) was also 2.4 [1.5, 3.8] and 2.3 times [1.2, 4.1] higher in SGA than AGA group at ages 2y and 6–7y, respectively, with no differences at 10y. Although preterm children had higher rates of thinness and stunting at 2y compared to AGA children, these differences were not statistically significant. No associations were found between preterm or SGA and overweight /obesity at age 10–11y. Conclusion: Children who were born term-SGA continued to demonstrate deficits in weight and height during childhood whereas those born preterm showed catch-up growth by age 6–7y. Additional efforts to reduce the burden of these conditions are needed, particularly during school-age and early adolescents when children are exposed to challenging environments and have higher demands for nutrition.

Women’s involvement in intra-household decision-making and infant and young child feeding practices in Central Asia

This paper examines the relationship between women’s empowerment and infant and young child feeding practices in Central Asia using Demographic and Health Survey datasets collected during 1995–2017. We employ a measure of women’s empowerment with three dimensions that is available for many recent surveys as well as a measure of decision-making power over use of one’s own income present for income-earning mothers in all surveys. We identify a positive association between a woman’s decision-making power—a measure of her instrumental agency—and adherence to World Health Organization–recommended feeding practices. We find little significant association between a woman’s attitude toward domestic violence, or her degree of social independence, and adherence to recommended feeding practices. Our results further show that the association between women’s decision-making power and feeding practices varies little with child gender, whether or not she cohabitates with her mother-in-law, or household wealth. We thus provide evidence from Central Asia that policies and programs intended to empower women can improve child feeding practices, with similar benefits across a variety of household types.

Centering context when characterizing food environments: The potential of participatory mapping to inform food environment research

Food environments are a critical place within the food system to implement interventions aimed at enabling sustainable diets. In this perspective article, we argue for the need for food environment research to more comprehensively examine the different types of food environments that people access within their communities to ensure that interventions and programs are better aligned with people’s lived experiences. We highlight the potential ways in which participatory mapping (PM) can be leveraged to better design food environment research by: (1) identifying the different food environment types that are accessed within a given community; (2) providing insight into the timing for data collection; (3) informing the prioritization of where to conduct food environment assessments; and (4) highlighting the dynamism of food environments over time (e.g., across a given day or across seasons). We provide a case study example of the application of PM and the lessons learned from it in Cambodia. By conceptualizing food environments in a more comprehensive way, from the perspective of the people living within a given community, we will be able to measure food environments in a way that more closely aligns with people’s lived experiences. This is part of the Journal Research Topic: Measuring Diets and Food Choice in the Context of a Changing World (https://www.frontiersin.org/research-topics/47398/measuring-diets-and-food-choice-in-the-context-of-a-changing-world/magazine#articles).

Demand-side and supply-side factors for accelerating varietal turnover in smallholder soybean farms

The rapid growth of soybean cultivation in the world augurs well for achieving SDG2 of promoting sustainable agriculture, ending hunger, achieving food security, and improving nutrition. India started promoting soybean cultivation in the 1970s to combat dietary protein deficiencies and augment smallholders’ incomes. However, soybean yield remains low and plateaued at one ton per hectare for the past three decades. This paper leverages a large primary dataset and explores the speed of soybean varietal change by applying survival functions and analyzing determinants of varietal turnover time employing a dynamic framework and harnessing duration analysis. The results show that adopting leading soybean varieties has reached saturation and that policy intervention can have an immediate impact. The weighted average age of soybean varieties in farmers’ fields is relatively high at 16 years, implying a slower varietal change rate. The lack of improved varieties with desirable traits, poor information flow, and growers’ preference for traits beyond yield-hamper faster varietal substitution. Further, analysis indicates regional variations in driving the speed of varietal replacement. The findings have significant implications for spurring soybean yields through investments in varietal development, leveraging modern molecular methods for long juvenility and photo-insensitivity, disseminating information, and institutional changes enabling the private sector participation in crop breeding.

Using climate financing wisely to address multiple crises

A convergence of several risk drivers creates the compound crises we see across the globe today. At the same time, the global humanitarian community and national institutions in affected countries are increasingly resource constrained. In this context, existing financing mechanisms should be evaluated for their potential to create synergies between social protection, peace, and inclusion objectives on the one hand and climate resilience outcomes on the other. The existing international architecture of climate change mitigation and adaptation policy and financing holds, in principle, the potential to address not only its main purpose of climate action, but also to contribute to development outcomes and address multiple risk drivers. Examples of this exist, but for these mutual benefits to emerge, and for climate finance to contribute more significantly to crises prevention, the agendas must become more aligned. Aligning several factors may enable coherence: i) Timeframes, from short-term response to multi-year programming; ii) Planning and targeting, moving towards conflict-sensitive area-based approaches and universal access to services; iii) Institutional arrangements and partnerships, coordinated national planning and jointly implemented local action.

Determining rapeseed lodging angles and types for lodging phenotyping using morphological traits derived from UAV images

“It doesn’t matter at all—we are family”: Titling and joint property rights in Myanmar

Many policy makers and academics striving for more gender equality consider joint property rights as preferable over sole rights, since the latter often discriminate against women. Several governments in low-, middle- and high-income countries have therefore imposed joint rights through modifications of statutory law or mandatory joint property registration. We first discuss a general theoretical framework of determinants of property rights with a focus on jointness and the interplay between statutory law, customary law and religious norms, as well as the importance of gendered customs, norms and perceptions around household, family and community arrangements. We then also relate this specifically to the case of Myanmar—based on literature and original qualitative data collected with men and women across all four agro-ecological zones in rural Myanmar. We find equal customary and statutory joint property rights regime upon marriage where inheritance rights are not different for men and women, but only one name is generally recorded on land use certificates. A strong sense of “togetherness”, including a custom of income pooling and rare occurrence of divorce, limits the rationale of marital partners to exercise rights solely rather than jointly. Nevertheless, which household members’ name is on a document is important for accessing credit or engaging with officials and government authorities, and strong patriarchal norms guide official and administrative procedures. Whereas short-term impacts of sole land titling seem limited, the extent to which sole or joint titling might affect gender equality in the longer term remains a topic of future research.

Prevalence and correlates of stunting among a high-risk population of Kenyan children recently hospitalized for acute illnesses

Stunting (length/height-for-age z-score < –2) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality among children under 5 years of age in sub-Saharan Africa. Children who are stunted and recently hospitalized for acute illness may be at particularly elevated risk for post-discharge mortality. In this cross-sectional analysis, we measured the prevalence of stunting at hospital discharge and identified host, caregiver, and environmental correlates of stunting among children aged 1–59 months in Western Kenya enrolled in the Toto Bora Trial. Child age- and site-adjusted prevalence ratios were estimated using Poisson regression. Of the 1,394 children included in this analysis, 23% were stunted at hospital discharge. Older children (12–23 months and 24–59 months versus 0–5 months) had a higher prevalence of stunting (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR]: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.04–2.36 and aPR: 1.59; 95% CI: 1.08–2.34, respectively). HIV-exposed, uninfected children (aPR: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.39–2.70), children with HIV infection (aPR: 2.73; 95% CI: 1.45–5.15), and those who were never exclusively breastfed in early life (aPR 2.51; 95% CI: 1.35–4.67) were more likely to be stunted. Caregiver education (primary school or less) and unimproved sanitation (pit latrine without slab floor or open defecation) were associated with increased risk of stunting (aPR: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.54–2.44; aPR: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.20–3.31; aPR: 3.57; 95% CI: 1.77–7.21, respectively). Hospital discharge represents an important opportunity for both identifying and delivering targeted interventions for nutrition-associated poor outcomes among a high-risk population of children.

Production vulnerability to wheat blast disease under climate change

Wheat blast is a devastating disease caused by the fungal pathogen Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum that has spread to both neighbouring and distant countries following its emergence in Brazil in the 1980s. Under climate change conditions, wheat blast is predicted to spread primarily in tropical regions. Here we coupled a wheat crop simulation model with a newly developed wheat blast model, to provide quantitative global estimates of wheat blast vulnerability under current and future climates. Under current climatic conditions, 6.4 million hectares of arable land is potentially vulnerable to wheat blast. A more humid and warmer climate in the future (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) is likely to increase the area suitable for wheat blast infection, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, and reduce global wheat production by 69 million tons per year (13% decrease) by mid-century. Impacts of climate change could be further exacerbated and food security problems increased.

Variation in women’s attitudes toward intimate partner violence across the rural–urban continuum in Ethiopia

Little is known about the effects of urbanization on women’s attitudes toward intimate partner violence (IPV). The scarcity of empirical studies on this relationship can be partly attributed to the lack of an objective measure of urbanization levels. In this study, we investigate the effects of urbanization on Ethiopian women’s attitudes toward IPV using four continuous measures of urbanization: nightlight intensity, distance to urban areas, total urban area within a 10-km radius, and an urbanization index. These measures are defined from satellite-based nighttime light intensity and multispectral sensor data. We find that despite a generally strong positive association between urbanization and progressive attitudes among women toward IPV, some stages of urbanization show a more significant association than others. The heterogeneities in the effect of all urbanization measures on women’s attitudes toward intimate partner violence further show that the effects of urbanization measures are sharply heterogeneous across wealth indicator terciles. While we find that urbanization measures are associated with an overall decrease in the justification of IPV, the effects are higher and stronger for women in the upper and middle wealth terciles compared to the lowest wealth tercile. Initially less-privileged women gain little from urbanization in the attitudes toward IPV, resulting in increased inequality in women’s empowerment in the short and medium term.

The role of land inheritance in youth migration and employment choices: Evidence from rural Nigeria

Context matters: Oil palm production and women’s dietary diversity in the tropical forest of Cameroon

Oil palm is one of the most rapidly expanding food and cash crops in many tropical regions with significant environmental implications, but also economic gains. Previous analyses have established that this expansion is associated with changing gender roles and time allocation for women. Time allocation is an important determinant of maternal and child nutrition as well as well-being. We use a rich farm household survey from a native oil palm production hotspot, Cameroon, to examine the associations between oil palm production and women’s dietary diversity. Using different estimation and identification strategies with some sensitivity checks, we show that oil palm is associated with lower dietary diversity for women, measured as the minimum dietary diversity for women and the minimum adequacy diversity diet. We explore heterogeneity in the various food groups consumed by women and show that oil palm production is associated with lower consumption of mainly pulses, fruits and vegetables. These findings contrast with the literature that has established some positive dietary diversity implications of oil palm expansion in Southeast Asia. We carefully discuss these findings and argue that context matters and may explain these differences. Particularly, we show that oil palm production is negatively associated with farm production diversity in Cameroon. Notwithstanding, we also confirm previous findings that highlight that oil palm production is associated with higher income. These insights add to the debate on the implications of oil palm expansion in tropical environments. Moreover, they can guide policy in designing more tailored interventions that address nutrition issues and improve rural development.

The effect of price support policies under productivity shocks: Evidence from an economywide model

Water insecurity is associated with greater food insecurity and lower dietary diversity: Panel data from sub-Saharan Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic

There is growing recognition that water insecurity – the inability to reliably access sufficient water for all household uses – is commonly experienced globally and has myriad adverse consequences for human well-being. The role of water insecurity in food insecurity and diet quality, however, has received minimal attention. Data are from panel surveys conducted during 2020–21 among adults involved in smallholder agriculture in Niger (n = 364, 3 rounds), Nigeria (n = 501, 5 rounds), Senegal (n = 501, 5 rounds), and Ghana (n = 543, 5 rounds). We hypothesized that household water insecurity (measured using the brief Household Water Insecurity Experiences Scale) would be associated with greater individual food insecurity (using 5 of the 8 Food Insecurity Experiences Scale items) and lower dietary diversity (using the Minimum Dietary Diversity Score for Women). At baseline, 37.1% of individuals were living in water-insecure households and of these, 90.6% had some experience of food insecurity. In multilevel mixed-effects regressions, individuals living in water-insecure households had 1.67 (95% CI: 1.47, 1.89) times higher odds of reporting any food insecurity experience and were estimated to consume 0.38-fewer food groups (95% CI: -0.50, -0.27) than those living in water-secure households. Experiences with suboptimal water access and use are associated with poor nutrition. The pathways by which water insecurity impacts nutrition should be identified. Global and national food and nutrition security policies could be strengthened by monitoring and developing strategies to address household water insecurity.

Agricultural mechanisation and gendered labour activities across sectors: Micro-evidence from multi-country farm household data

The gender difference in employment across sectors is a critical element of gender inequality in rural livelihoods and welfare in developing countries. The role of production technologies, including agricultural mechanisation, in addressing gender inequality is increasingly explored. Knowledge gaps remain, however, including how agricultural mechanisation differentially affects labour engagements across sectors. This study aims to partly fill these knowledge gaps through micro‐evidence from seven countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, Tanzania, India, Nepal and Vietnam), using several nationally representative panel data and supplementary data and applying correlated random effects double‐hurdle models with instrumental variables. We find that the use of tractors and/or combine harvesters by the household induces a greater shift from farm activities to non‐farm activities by female members than by male members. While statistical significance varies, these patterns generally hold consistently across all seven countries studied. These patterns also hold across different farm sizes. While these are short‐term relations, agricultural mechanisation proxied by tractors and/or combine harvesters is one of the crucial contributors to gendered rural livelihood. Future studies should more closely investigate these patterns’ underlying mechanisms and implications.

Gender dynamics in seed systems: An integrative review of seed promotion interventions in Africa

The paper of how: Estimating treatment effects using the front-door criterion

We illustrate the use of Pearl’s (1995) front-door criterion with observational data with an application in which the assumptions for point identification hold. For identification, the front-door criterion leverages exogenous mediator variables on the causal path. After a preliminary discussion of the identification assumptions behind and the estimation framework used for the front-door criterion, we present an empirical application. In our application, we look at the effect of deciding to share an Uber or Lyft ride on tipping by exploiting the algorithm-driven exogenous variation in whether one actually shares a ride conditional on authorizing sharing, the full fare paid, and origin–destination fixed effects interacted with two-hour interval fixed effects. We find that most of the observed negative relationship between choosing to share a ride and tipping is driven by customer selection into sharing rather than by sharing itself. In the Appendix, we explore the consequences of violating the identification assumptions for the front-door criterion.

Impact of farmer-managed natural regeneration on resilience and welfare in Mali

Climate change, poverty, and low environmental education have contributed to increasing vulnerability of poor farmers in Mali. This study was done to determine the impact of low-cost adaptation strategies on resilience and welfare. We analyzed the impact of a World Vision project which promoted climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices in Mali from 2016-2019. We identified the impact using a two-stage weighted regression (2SWR). Results show that the World Vision Project significantly increased the adoption of Farmer-Managed Natural Regeneration (FMNR) practice and eventually crop yield. These intermediate impacts were translated into a significant reduction in food and nutrition insecurity and an increase in household income. The impacts of the project on child health were especially greater for farmers who participated in the project for a longer time. However, the project did not have a significant impact on the adoption of a combination of CSA practices – which could have enhanced the effectiveness of the FMNR practice. The results suggest the need for future interventions to emphasize the promotion of complementary CSA practices, which significantly increases returns to farmer investments.

Risks from solar-powered groundwater irrigation: Emissions reductions may not meet expectations, and groundwater use will likely increase

Solar-powered groundwater irrigation is expanding exponentially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), creating opportunities and risks. In South Asia, more than 500,000 small stand-alone pumps have already been installed (see the figure). In Sub-Saharan Africa, solar pumps are gaining traction to expand food production and alleviate poverty. There is optimism about solar-powered irrigation helping LMICs meet their climatechange mitigation obligations, but insights from behavioral sciences, and early evidence, suggest that such emissions reductions are complex to calculate and likely lower than assumed. Groundwater pumping is likely to increase. Moving from siloed accounting of land, water, and energy use to integrated assessment frameworks can help manage unintended risks to land and water resources (1) and prevent lock-ins. By assessing social costs and benefits of solar-powered groundwater pumping, policy-makers can navigate tradeoffs where irrigation expands food production and alleviates poverty but has unintended or unaccounted consequences for groundwater depletion and carbon emissions.

Neonatal mortality risk of vulnerable newborns by fine stratum of gestational age and birthweight for 230 679 live births in nine low- and middle-income countries, 2000-2017.

Objective We aimed to understand the mortality risks of vulnerable newborns (defined as preterm and/or born weighing smaller or larger compared to a standard population), in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Design Descriptive multi-country, secondary analysis of individual-level study data of babies born since 2000. Setting Sixteen subnational, population-based studies from nine LMICs in sub-Saharan Africa, Southern and Eastern Asia, and Latin America. Population Live birth neonates. Methods We categorically defined five vulnerable newborn types based on size (large- or appropriate- or small-for-gestational age [LGA, AGA, SGA]), and term (T) and preterm (PT): T + LGA, T + SGA, PT + LGA, PT + AGA, and PT + SGA, with T + AGA (reference). A 10-type definition included low birthweight (LBW) and non-LBW, and a four-type definition collapsed AGA/LGA into one category. We performed imputation for missing birthweights in 13 of the studies. Main Outcome Measures Median and interquartile ranges by study for the prevalence, mortality rates and relative mortality risks for the four, six and ten type classification. Results There were 238 143 live births with known neonatal status. Four of the six types had higher mortality risk: T + SGA (median relative risk [RR] 2.8, interquartile range [IQR] 2.0–3.2), PT + LGA (median RR 7.3, IQR 2.3–10.4), PT + AGA (median RR 6.0, IQR 4.4–13.2) and PT + SGA (median RR 10.4, IQR 8.6–13.9). T + SGA, PT + LGA and PT + AGA babies who were LBW, had higher risk compared with non-LBW babies. Conclusions Small and/or preterm babies in LIMCs have a considerably increased mortality risk compared with babies born at term and larger. This classification system may advance the understanding of the social determinants and biomedical risk factors along with improved treatment that is critical for newborn health.

Impact evaluation of a maternal and child cash transfer intervention, integrated with nutrition, early childhood development, and agriculture messaging (MAZIKO-IE): A study protocol for a cluster-randomised controlled trial

Children in Malawi face high rates of malnutrition and are at risk of not reaching their developmental potential. Community-based childcare centres (CBCCs) can be cost-effective platforms for scaling-up early childhood development (ECD) and nutrition social behaviour change (SBC) interventions. However, evidence also suggests potential synergies from coupling nutrition SBC with cash transfers (CT), given that rural households in Malawi face high levels of poverty and recurring extreme lean season food-security shocks. The Maziko trial is aimed at evaluating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of using CBCCs and parenting care groups as platforms to improve maternal diets and child nutrition and development by providing nutrition-sensitive SBC and CT intervention packages in communities already receiving a standard of care Government SBC program.

The causal effect of early marriage on women’s bargaining power: Evidence from Bangladesh

Early marriage restrains women’s agency and bargaining strength in postmarital households, impairing their ability to make meaningful contributions to household decision making. This paper employs a comprehensive measure of women’s empowerment in the domestic and productive spheres, and isolates the causal effect of age at marriage, instrumented by age at menarche, on their bargaining strength, using nationally representative data from Bangladesh. Results suggest that delayed marriages result in significantly higher empowerment scores and probability of being empowered for women, because of higher likelihood in achieving adequacy in their autonomy in agricultural production, control over income, ownership of assets and rights in those assets, and ability to speak in public. Favorable impacts of delayed marriage are also found on women’s freedom of mobility, fertility choices, and their ability to decide on household expenses and investments, with the impacts likely coming via improvements in education and labor market outcomes when women married later.

Towards sustainable food crop production: Drivers of shift from crop production to mining activities in Ghana’s arable lands

This study contributes to the observed reduction of arable lands discourse by examining the shift in land use patterns as well as factors influencing farmers’ shift from crop production to mining activities. To achieve this, we employed a combination of Geographic Information System (GIS) technology and Cragg’s Double Hurdle Econometric Model as analytical tools. Our approach integrates an econometric model of land use with GIS simulations that predict the spatial pattern of land-use change. The results revealed that crop production lands have been converted into artisanal small-scale mining (galamsey) sites, a development which has implications on food security, life on land and effective utilizations of land and water resources. The results also showed that membership in Farmer-Based Organizations (FBOs), access to credit, and low yield of food crops influenced farmers to shift from crop production to participate in mining activities. In addition, the extent of participation in mining was influenced by family size, membership in FBOs, and low crop yield. While mining operations offer substantial economic benefits, it is crucial to strike a balance between land use for mining activities and food crop production. This is because it has the potential to worsen recent hikes in food prices and subsequently leading to rising inflation rates in Ghana. Our findings have implications on achieving multiple SDGs, viz. SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation) and SDG 15 (Life on Land) as minimizing illegal mining helps increase food production as well as protect water bodies and land. We therefore suggest that government should take steps to make credit accessible to farmers by collaborating with financial institutions and also collaborate with Crops Research Institutes to develop high-yielding crop varieties. Future research could focus on exploring the impact of participating in mining activities on the profitability of food crop production in Ghana.

Land Reform and Child Health in the Kyrgyz Republic

Can the establishment of private property rights to land improve child health and nutrition outcomes? We exploit a natural experiment in the Kyrgyz Republic following the collapse of socialism, whereby the government rapidly liquidated state and collective farms containing 75 percent of agricultural land and distributed it to individuals, providing 99-year transferable use rights. We use household surveys collected before, during, and after the privatization reform and spatial variation in its timing to identify its health and nutrition impacts. We find that young children aged 0-5 exposed to land privatization for longer periods of time accumulated significantly greater gains in height- and weight- for-age z-scores, both critical measures of long-term child health and nutrition. Health improvements appear to be driven by increases in consumption of home-produced food rather than increased income from sale of production, likely due to under-developed markets. We find minimal impacts on urban-dwelling children affected only indirectly by the reform.

Public expenditure in agriculture: Unmasking the real trends?

Public expenditure in the agriculture sector and its role in reducing poverty and enhancing household incomes, especially in rural areas, is widely studied and firmly established (Bathla et al 2020; Fan et al 1999, 2000; Fan et al 2008; Mogues et al 2015). In India, the union government and various state governments are the primary sources of public expenditure. Agriculture is a state subject under the Seventh Schedule of the Constitution of India (GoI 2020). However, considering the vast importance of the agriculture sector in the Indian economy (Wagh and Dongre 2016), the union government is also responsible for its development. In addition to spending directly on the sector, the union government allocates a major share of its budgetary resources to the state governments through various available instruments, including central sector schemes, centrally sponsored schemes, and grants-in-aid.