First in a series of blog posts exploring IFPRI’s work on climate change and its implications for food systems, land use, gender, and other issues in the runup to the UN Climate Action Summit. Read the others here, here, and here.
On Sept. 23, the UN Climate Action Summit will convene representatives of governments, the private sector, civil society, local authorities, and international organizations to re-establish global commitments to combat climate change.
The challenge of meeting the Paris Climate Agreement goal of keeping global average temperature from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is formidable, and the consequences of flagging efforts could be dire: At a time when global hunger and food insecurity are on the rise, agriculture and food systems face mounting climate impacts that threaten their capacity to feed a growing population.
Meeting these challenges requires a full understanding of those impacts, and the most effective means for mitigation and adaptation.
Impacts if trends persist
Damage to food systems is projected to be most severe in regions already experiencing high rates of undernutrition, where many rely on agriculture for their livelihoods. The CGIAR Global Futures and Strategic Foresight team, including Keith Wiebe and other IFPRI researchers, estimates that climate change will put an additional 80 million people at risk of hunger by 2050, primarily in the Global South. In Asia and Africa south of the Sahara—projected to be among the areas most burdened by climate change—smallholder farmers manage the vast majority of farmland and food production. Many are poor and face major obstacles adapting to climate shocks and changing conditions.
Meanwhile, recent research suggests that climate change will also have serious consequences for diets around the world. A study including IFPRI researchers Timothy Sulser and Nicola Cenacchi found that rising CO2 levels will significantly reduce the availability of key nutrients protein, iron and zinc by 2050. Similarly, projected fruit and vegetable shortages are likely to exacerbate poor diets that raise the risk of noncommunicable diseases, such as cardiovascular disease and diabetes, and premature death. Climate change also threatens to worsen nutrition outcomes indirectly through disruptions along food value chains, including increased aflatoxin risk and problems transporting food to market when storms damage roads and storage facilities.
Finally, a report by Senior Research Fellow Alan de Brauw and Research Fellow Kate Ambler shows that, as the United States and United Kingdom move to tighten their borders, models of climate change predict that people in environmentally threatened areas will face increased pressure to migrate. We’ve already seen that changing weather patterns and climate shocks, combined with lower global prices for agricultural products such as coffee, contribute to migration of farmers out of the northern triangle of Central America, for example, adding to the humanitarian crisis at the U.S. southern border.
These assessments of how climate change will impact food systems are helping researchers and decision-makers devise strategies and specific steps to adapt at multiple scales, from farms and local communities up to the national and global levels.
The benefits of climate change mitigation
This spring, Cyclone Idai devastated Malawi and Mozambique, previewing the sorts of shocks likely to become more frequent as climate change intensifies. Environment and Production Technology Division (EPTD) Director Channing Arndt and Senior Research Fellow James Thurlow recently examined the interplay of climate change impacts, global mitigation policies, and the economic interests of developing countries in 2050, focusing on Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia. The research shows that global mitigation policies such as controlling carbon emissions that reduce climate impacts can protect and promote stability and economic development of these low- and middle-income countries over the long term and even in the near future.
Mitigation alone won’t be enough. Here’s how to adapt.
But developing countries can’t afford to rely on global mitigation policies alone. Food production presents ample opportunities for mitigation and adaptation. In a recent op-ed, Senior Research Fellow David Spielman described the urgency of investing in more diverse, resilient seeds in the countries that need them most. Particularly vulnerable regions, especially Africa south of the Sahara, do not have enough plant breeders to combat the threats ranging from the rise of maize lethal necrosis to more frequent drought conditions. Funding crop improvement and sharing data to speed the development of more resilient varieties will be central to climate change adaptation.
Infrastructure is another area poised for transformation in response to climate pressures. Renewable energy presents an opportunity for developing countries to leapfrog directly to energy sources that are low-cost, reliable, and have far smaller carbon footprints than the status quo. In a recent paper, EPTD’s Arndt concludes that scaling up variable renewable energy in developing countries could be a boon to bringing electricity and growth to dispersed rural populations.
Implementing such technologies and resilience-building measures can substantially reduce the impact of climate shocks on agriculture and the populations most vulnerable to extreme weather. Deputy EPTD Director Claudia Ringler’s new study, Building Resilience to Climate Shocks in Ethiopia, found that that country was able to prevent a full-blown crisis from the recent El Niño, which triggered drought and consequent crop failures in the region, because the government and development partners had proactively put programs in place including a public safety net, agricultural support, and irrigation investments. Resilience-focused interventions—including agricultural intensification through sustainable practices; improving infrastructure; strengthening financial institutions and markets; and buttressing R&D investment—should be widely applied to reduce dependence on emergency support in the short term and cultivate long-term stability.
Effective solutions must address gender dynamics
Finally, to devise and implement adaptations effectively, researchers, decision-makers, and practitioners must apply a gendered lens to the problem. Women tend to have less access to information on climate change and fewer assets (like land and machinery) than their male counterparts. The result? Women’s climate change response options are severely limited.
In Ethiopia, Ghana, and Tanzania, IFPRI researchers found that, for women, the benefits of small-scale irrigation technology have been limited by expectations that they prioritize household responsibilities over agricultural production. In other words, just because a woman adopts an adaptation technology does not necessarily mean that she controls the benefits of it.
Real barriers exist to implementing climate change adaptation solutions favorable to all genders and maximize community resources. For example, women tend to spend their income on food, healthcare, or education, and some men will choose to sell women’s assets before their own in order to cope with climate shocks. Similarly, if a more adaptive agricultural practice is adopted, who controls the resulting income will have significant effects on household and community outcomes.
The Gender, Climate Change, and Nutrition Integration Initiative (GCAN) led by Senior Scientist Elizabeth Bryan has developed a conceptual framework to understand the gender differences in the ways climate change adaptation methods are adopted. The Women’s Empowerment Agricultural Index (WEAI) offers another tool researchers can use to assess whether women are empowered to make decisions that will benefit themselves and their communities. Making an effort to equitably distribute resources across genders in strategies to combat climate change would accelerate adaptation without leaving anyone behind.
Diverse social, political, cultural, and agroecological circumstances require carefully tailored solutions to mitigate the damage from climate change and adapt to its impacts. Promoting and implementing these mitigation and adaptation strategies with a careful consideration of place-specific needs is crucial to ensuring that the planet’s most vulnerable systems and people remain resilient in the face of climate change.
To meet the challenges that confront billions of people around the world, the key is to begin scaling up solutions now. We can meet the climate change adaptation challenge by “doing better, doing new, and doing more.”
Isabella Di Pietro is a former IFPRI Communications Intern.
