Second in a series of blog posts exploring IFPRI’s work on climate change and its implications for food systems, land use, gender, and other issues in the runup to the Sept. 23 UN Climate Action Summit 2019. Read the others here, here, and here.

Is climate change truly a planetary crisis, an existential issue for humanity? That question is the subject of ongoing debate. But one thing can be said with certainty: Climate change is a crisis for the global poor. Severe climate impacts will be experienced as a crisis by a sufficiently high number of the poor and the resourceless worldwide that action is a moral imperative. IFPRI’s projections indicate that, if unaddressed, climate change may make 80 million more people food-insecure by 2050. The overwhelming majority are in the global South—Africa South of the Sahara in particular. The impacts will not be limited to those areas; among other things they will likely kick off waves of migration that, as we’ve seen with recent events in Europe and elsewhere, threaten to destabilize even well-established democracies.

This crisis can be averted: The world can act to reduce the chances of catastrophic outcomes for the most vulnerable. However, adapting to the challenges of rising global temperatures will require significant efforts by diverse actors and stakeholders, and this in turn requires time and coordination. This is why the Global Commission on Adaptation (GCA) is championing a Year of Action that aims at refocusing energies and resources to overcome the obstacles that are preventing and slowing down adaptation activities.

A group of researchers at IFPRI has tackled this issue in a recent paper prepared for the GCA. Taking a food system perspective, they reviewed the existing literature with a specific focus on the roles and actions of international organizations, national governments, local communities and farmers, and have identified a series of guiding principles to be considered while planning for adaptation. These principles should guide decision makers as they construct plans of action to avoid catastrophic outcomes:

1. Publicly funded research is the underlying engine of all adaptation actions and requires increased investments. Particular emphasis should be given to the growing risks faced by vulnerable people.

2. Accounting for complex trade-offs is a must in a world of constrained resources. Climate change generates multidimensional challenges and adaptation actions that must be evaluated accounting for their economic, environmental and social costs and benefits. Trade-offs across alternative objectives should be made explicit.

3. Coordination among international, regional, national, and local actors is not only necessary but essential to maximize the outcomes of adaptation actions. Regulatory frameworks must be developed with the contribution of multiple stakeholders and sufficient resources must be allocated to these efforts.

4. Understanding and managing risk and uncertainty is a crucial component of climate change adaptation. Increased efforts are necessary to improve our understanding of how to deal with risk and uncertainty and to educate decision-makers on how to manage risks.

5. Deploy adaptation efforts across the entire food system, as actions in the areas of post-harvest, transportation, retail and food consumption work synergistically with efforts on the production side.

6. Invest in institutional capacity to enable change and transformation in the agriculture sector. Insufficient investments slow down the pace of adaptation and reduce the efficiency of adaptation actions.

7. Invest in new digital technologies that have the potential to transform the agriculture sector, and build the capacity to use them. Particular attention should be given to preserving access to these technologies by poorer producers and consumers.

8. Prepare for increased migration. Climate change-induced temporary and permanent migrations have the potential to significantly disrupt the normal functioning even of established economies. Planning, coordination, and adequate support are necessary to avoid catastrophic consequences.

9. Balance climate adaptation and mitigation. The adoption of certain adaptation measures could be significantly constrained by the growing need to abate greenhouse gases (GHGs). Adaptation measures should also be evaluated according to their potential effects on GHG emissions.

The world faces the unprecedented challenge of increasing food production by 60% to feed a global population projected to reach 9 billion by 2050. Climate change will make this already difficult task even more daunting. Averting crisis for the global poor is possible, but it will depend on having the right policies and set of incentives in place to prevent climate change from irreparably disrupting food systems.

Alessandro (Alex) De Pinto is a Senior Research Fellow with IFPRI’s Environment and Production Technology Division.