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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

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Carlo Azzarri

Carlo Azzarri is a Senior Research Fellow in the Innovation Policy and Scaling Unit. His work focuses on the relationships among poverty, nutrition, food security, agriculture, the environment, production, and migration—analyzed at both micro and macroeconomic levels, primarily using quantitative methods.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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Unit

Natural Resources and Resilience

Tree planting Uganda, this is a plantation where many seedlings are grown with wooden racks to protect them against rain and sun

Climate change, natural resource degradation, and biodiversity loss increasingly affect human well-being and our ability to produce food, achieve food security, and improve nutrition.

IFPRI’s Natural Resources and Resilience Unit (NRR) is a highly interdisciplinary research team of social and biophysical scientists who work at the local, national, and global levels to balance the challenges of improving food security and nutrition with more sustainable use of natural resources, and more equitable outcomes for disadvantaged groups.

research units

Overview

NRR works in four key research areas at the intersection of nature, agriculture, and development to support tangible progress toward more equitable, resilient, and environmentally sustainable food systems that benefit from healthy ecosystems and provide nutrition, better livelihoods, and economic opportunities for all. The Unit works with government agencies, NGOs, and university partners to design and implement policy-relevant research in areas including behavioral change interventions,

participatory institutional analysis, management of complex interactions between agrifood systems and energy, water, and other environmental systems, economics of biodiversity conservation, and digital transformation, including the design of AI systems for food, people, and planet, among other topics. All of the Unit’s work includes a focus on measurable improvements in the resources, agency, and achievements of the world’s poorest farmers—both women and men—in Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

In this video, Claudia Ringler, the Unit director, talks about some of the key research areas NRR is focusing on. These include biodiversity conservation economics, the potential of digital food system innovations, and behavioral change interventions, among other things. This work aims to enhance food security and nutrition, especially in impoverished communities across Africa, Asia, and Latin America.

Areas of Focus

Equitable climate adaptation and mitigation strategies

NRR identifies, tests, and evaluates strategies that strengthen the gender and nutrition intentionality of climate change policies and investments. This work includes development and testing of novel resilience metrics and frameworks, economic-environmental assessments, political economy and governance analysis, and tools such as the Women’s Empowerment in Climate Change Index.

Optimizing water-energy-food systems sustainably

Growing competition and trade-offs across natural resources and food systems affect planetary and human health. NRR conducts economic analyses of technologies, policies, and institutions that reduce environmental degradation and improve resilience and equity. Researchers also evaluate behavioral change strategies at the intersection of natural and human systems.

Natural resource governance

Biodiversity loss and water, land, and forest degradation affect agroecosystems and all life on Earth. To inform improved resource governance and decision-making, NRR provides economic valuation of biodiversity and ecosystem services, as well as systems and institutional analyses of natural resource management interventions and governance approaches. NRR uses participatory action research and multistakeholder engagement to help develop inclusive and effective strategies for sustainable natural resource management.

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AI for Food, People, and Planet

IFPRI research on AI for Food, People, and Planet brings together researchers and practitioners across CGIAR and its partners to explore how Artificial Intelligence can be designed, governed, and applied responsibly in low- and middle-income countries. The initiative aligns real-world needs with technical expertise to ensure AI contributes meaningfully to research and innovation, supports small-scale producers, and enables just, sustainable transformations of food, land, and water systems.

Explore our research

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Journal Article

Potential decarbonization for balancing local and non-local perishable food supply in megacities

2025Lin, Xintao; Qian, Jianping; Chen, Jian; Yu, Qiangyi; You, Liangzhi; Chen, Qian; Li, Jiali; Xiao, Pengnan; Jiang, Jingyi
Details

Potential decarbonization for balancing local and non-local perishable food supply in megacities

Ensuring urban food security while reducing carbon emissions from food systems is a key challenge. Food localization can reduce transport emissions; however, its role in agricultural production emissions reductions is unclear. Here, we explored the effects of localization of seven perishables, incorporating emissions from production and cold-chain logistics, in Beijing and Shanghai, China; determined decarbonization under different scenarios by increasing or decreasing the localization, with or without constrains, of each food category (balancing strategy). The results show that every 1% increase in the localization of vegetables, poultry, and aquatic products decreased 2020 emissions by 0.4–1.9 tCO2e, but for beef and lamb, it increased emissions by 0.2–2.9 tCO2e. Localization decreased cold-chain emission shares for all foods. The balancing strategy with constraints reduced emissions by 0.76 MtCO2e (5%) and 0.44 MtCO2e (2%) in 2020 in Beijing and Shanghai, respectively. Utilizing urban agriculture at all costs (i.e., without constraints) further reduced emissions by a factor of 3–4. Over 90% of Beijing’s emissions added by 2035 under the business-as-usual scenario were projected to be offset by the strategy. In Shanghai, the strategy could reduce emissions by an additional 0.44 MtCO2e. The results indicate that expanding imports of carbon-intensive ruminant meat to replace local production and reallocating urban resources to vegetables, poultry, and aquatic products could lead to more sustainable food supplies in megacities. Further development of cold-chain logistics is expected to reduce emissions in synergy with the balancing strategy. Our results could help inform better food system planning in megacities.

Year published

2025

Authors

Lin, Xintao; Qian, Jianping; Chen, Jian; Yu, Qiangyi; You, Liangzhi; Chen, Qian; Li, Jiali; Xiao, Pengnan; Jiang, Jingyi

Citation

Lin, Xintao; Qian, Jianping; Chen, Jian; Yu, Qiangyi; You, Liangzhi; Chen, Qian; et al. 2025. Potential decarbonization for balancing local and non-local perishable food supply in megacities. Resources, Environment and Sustainability 20(June 2025): 100206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resenv.2025.100206

Country/Region

China

Keywords

Asia; Eastern Asia; Food Security; Urban Areas; Agricultural Production; Emission; Carbon; Cold Chains

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-NC-ND-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resenv.2025.100206 Source record

Project

Climate Resilience

Record type

Journal Article

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Brief

Economic and welfare implications of the reduction of US foreign assistance in Malawi

2025Cockx, Lara; De Weerdt, Joachim; Duchoslav, Jan; Jamali, Andrew; Nagoli, Joseph; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James
Details

Economic and welfare implications of the reduction of US foreign assistance in Malawi

For over a decade, the US has consistently ranked as either the largest or second-largest donor to Malawi. Annual foreign assistance disbursements have averaged over $360 million between 2020 and 2023. In January 2025 the US government suspended all US-funded foreign aid programs. As of April 2025, the available information suggests that funding for many of these programs in Malawi has been withdrawn, resulting in an estimated decline in US foreign assistance to Malawi of around 59% for 2025. As a result, Malawi faces a potential decline in foreign exchange inflows of around $177 million in 2025, a loss equivalent to approximately 6.3% of the annual merchandise import bill. With Malawi’s economy currently highly vulnerable, lacking the buffers needed to absorb shocks, the eco nomic and welfare implications of these recent events are concerning. The suspensions may lead to an economic contraction from reduced activities by US implementing partners, immediate pressure on the exchange rate (endangering the affordability or availability of critical imports) and declining productivity in key sectors such as agriculture. Deteriorating health and education outcomes could further affect the productivity of workers in the longer run. In this policy note we combine qualitative and quantitative information gathered in-country with modeled results of the possible economywide impacts of the reduction of US foreign assistance on key economic and welfare indicators over the next six years. We also discuss policy options that could help mitigate some of the adverse impacts.

Year published

2025

Authors

Cockx, Lara; De Weerdt, Joachim; Duchoslav, Jan; Jamali, Andrew; Nagoli, Joseph; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James

Citation

Cockx, Lara; De Weerdt, Joachim; Duchoslav, Jan; Jamali, Andrew; Nagoli, Joseph; Pauw, Karl; and Thurlow, James. 2025. Economic and welfare implications of the reduction of US foreign assistance in Malawi. MaSSP Policy Note 53. Lilongwe, Malawi: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174201

Country/Region

Malawi

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Welfare; Aid Programmes; Economic Situation; Agriculture; Shock; Development Aid

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

Resource thumbnail

Working Paper

Detecting cumulative effects of inputs within the flexible production function framework through LASSO shrinkage estimation: Implications for potassium fertilizer use in India

2025Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Kishore, Avinash
Details

Detecting cumulative effects of inputs within the flexible production function framework through LASSO shrinkage estimation: Implications for potassium fertilizer use in India

Despite recognition of the potentially significant cumulative effects of input use on annual crop output—such as the effect of applying inorganic fertilizer in one year on crop output in the subsequent year—real-world evidence from smallholder farmers’ fields in lower-income countries remains scarce. We narrow this knowledge gap using unique district-level and farm-household-level annual panel datasets in India. We start with flexible translog production functions, which are well-suited for identifying cumulative effects in farmers’ actual production environments. We then apply shrinkage methods (LASSO and GMM-LASSO) to approximate the production function with reduced parameter dimensions, addressing various challenges such as multicollinearity among multiple inputs, including the same inputs from the current and previous years, and potential endogeneity in inputs. Our results indicate that, throughout the shrinkage process, potassium remains a key predictor of outputs, while other inputs (land, labor, capital, irrigation, and other fertilizer nutrients) drop out. More important, the cumulative quantity of potassium from both the previous and current years is a consistently more critical determinant of production than the quantity of potassium from the current year alone, demonstrating the potassium’s significant cumulative effects. These patterns hold at both the district and farm levels across diverse agroecologies and cropping systems. Furthermore, the dynamic panel data analyses suggest that farmers’ use of potassium in the current year is significantly negatively affected by its use in the previous year, potentially stabilizing outputs across years. Our results support earlier agronomic findings suggesting that the cumulative effects of potassium may be relevant across wider geographic regions than previously thought.

Year published

2025

Authors

Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Kishore, Avinash

Citation

Takeshima, Hiroyuki; and Kishore, Avinash. 2025. Detecting cumulative effects of inputs within the flexible production function framework through LASSO shrinkage estimation: Implications for potassium fertilizer use in India. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2332. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174101

Country/Region

India

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Fertilizers; Inputs; Machine Learning; Potassium

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Blogs

Overcoming policy, finance, and technology supply constraints to unleash small-scale irrigation in Nigeria
IFPRI Blog
 | 
April 14, 2025

Overcoming policy, finance, and technology supply constraints to unleash small-scale irrigation in Nigeria

By Bedru Balana, Musa T. Yakasai, Nuruddeen M. Musa, Augustine Iraoya, and Claudia Ringler

Bringing human-centered design to smallholder agriculture.

Policy change and farmer feedback: Does anonymity matter? Evidence from Uzbekistan
IFPRI Blog
 | 
January 28, 2025

Policy change and farmer feedback: Does anonymity matter? Evidence from Uzbekistan

By Anton Liutin, Paul Castañeda Dower, and Muzna Alvi

Gauging efforts to build water security.

From space to soil: Advancing crop mapping and ecosystem insights for smallholder agriculture in Kenya
IFPRI Blog
 | 
December 31, 2024

From space to soil: Advancing crop mapping and ecosystem insights for smallholder agriculture in Kenya

By Zhe Guo, Upeksha Hettiarachchi, and Wei Zhang

Using machine learning to track land use.

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News

April 10, 2025 | Press Release

IFPRI’s Wei Zhang appointed to the prestigious NASEM ad-hoc study committee on the status of insects in North America

IFPRI’s Wei Zhang will participate in the NASEM study that will assess trends in insect abundance, identify research priorities, and recommend actions to slow insect declines in the most vulnerable and ecologically critical areas.

December 05, 2024 | Press Release

Tracking soil health managers in Uganda

IFPRI, CGIAR NEXUS Gains Initiative, and Uganda’s National Agricultural Research Organization undertake a long-term, gender-disaggregated soil health survey in Uganda.

June 14, 2024 | Press Release

New study emphasizes tradeoffs between arresting groundwater depletion and food security

A new study published today in Nature Sustainability, reaffirms the world’s growing dependence on depleting groundwater systems.

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Events

IFPRI @ CGIAR Science Week
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

April 7 to 12, 2025

IFPRI @ CGIAR Science Week

When humanity has faced its greatest challenges, science and innovation have provided solutions. Today, major and connected global challenges threaten the sustainability of food, land, and water systems, with the most vulnerable people and communities at greatest risk. Recognizing the urgency of these challenges, CGIAR and the Kenyan Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO) are […]

How Can We Improve Food Security Monitoring in Conflict-Affected Regions? Machine Learning for Spatially Granular Food Security Mapping
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

March 25, 2025, 9:30 – 10:30 am

How Can We Improve Food Security Monitoring in Conflict-Affected Regions? Machine Learning for Spatially Granular Food Security Mapping

Machine learning is transforming agricultural and food security research, enabling more accurate and timely insights. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) is advancing data-driven approaches in various domains, including crop-type mapping, maize yield estimation, and boat detection. These innovations demonstrate the potential of machine learning in addressing complex challenges and informing policy decisions. A […]

Building More Inclusive and Natural Resource-Secure Food Futures
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

December 12, 2024, 10:30 – 12:00 pm

Building More Inclusive and Natural Resource-Secure Food Futures

Throughout her career, Ruth Meinzen-Dick has made pathbreaking contributions to natural resource management and gender equity, drawing from her deep engagement with communities to improve understanding and measurement in these areas. Dr. Meinzen-Dick’s research encompasses land and water policy, property rights, collective action, and games for experiential learning, with a longstanding focus on improving equity. […]

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Recent Work

Our experts

Claudia Ringler

Claudia Ringler

Director, Natural Resources and Resilience (NRR), Natural
Resources and Resilience

Kristin Davis

Kristin Davis

Senior Research Fellow, Natural
Resources and Resilience

Edward Kato

Edward Kato

Senior Research Analyst, Natural
Resources and Resilience

Jawoo Koo

Jawoo Koo

Senior Research Fellow, Natural
Resources and Resilience

Bishal Aryal

Bishal Aryal

Senior Program Manager, Natural
Resources and Resilience