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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

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researcher spotlight

Samuel Benin

Samuel Benin is the Acting Director for Africa in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit. He conducts research on national strategies and public investment for accelerating food systems transformation in Africa and provides analytical support to the African Union’s CAADP Biennial Review.

Where we work

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IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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Timothy Thomas

Senior Research Fellow

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Bio

Tim Thomas is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. His research focuses on the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. This work has expanded recently to include evaluating the fuller impact of climate change by accounting for uncertainty and interannual variability, especially in regard to extreme events and low-productivity years. Tim’s work involves developing innovative methods for simulated climate futures; generating crop yield emulators to provide intuition and to speed simulations; and model coordination between climate, crop, water, energy, and economics. Tim has also worked in a variety of domains developing innovative methods such as spatial disaggregation (applied to gridded agricultural GDP in Brazil); determining optimal cropland level subnationally (for Ethiopia); and together with other researchers, investigating the impact of climate change on aflatoxins.

Publications

Publications

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Journal Article

Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: case study of Malawi

2024Mukashov, Askar; Thomas, Timothy S.; Thurlow, James
Details

Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: case study of Malawi

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of agriculture-led versus non-agriculture-led development strategies under climate-induced economic uncertainty. Utilizing Malawi as a case study, we introduce the application of Stochastic Dominance (SD) analysis, a tool from decision analysis theory, and compare the two strategies in the context of weather/climate-associated economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest that an agriculture-led development strategy consistently surpasses its non-agriculture-led antagonist in poverty and undernourishment outcomes across almost all possible weather/climate scenarios. This underscores that, despite increasing exposure of the entire economy to weather/climate uncertainty, agriculture-led development remains the optimal strategy for Malawi to reduce poverty and undernourishment. The study also endorses the broader use of SD analysis in policy planning studies, promoting its potential to integrate risk and uncertainty into policymaking.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Thomas, Timothy S.; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Thomas, Timothy; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: case study of Malawi. Climatic Change 177. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03733-2

Country/Region

Malawi

Keywords

Eastern Africa; Agriculture; Development; Climate Change; Stochastic Models; Poverty; Undernutrition

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03733-2 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Journal Article

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Brief

Climate change effects on agriculture in Tajikistan

2024Khakimov, Parviz; Aliev, Jovidon; Thomas, Timothy S.; Ilyasov, Jarilkasin; Pechtl, Sarah; Dunston, Shahnila
Details

Climate change effects on agriculture in Tajikistan

Climate change is one of the main challenges for Tajikistan’s agricultural development in the medium and longer term. Tajikistan’s Agri-Food System and Sustainable Development Program (ASDP) for the period up to 2030 defined climate change as one of four key challenges to the development of agriculture and food systems. Accordingly, the Program accentuates the importance climate-optimized agriculture to ensure sustainable development of the sector. The effects of climate change on agriculture in Tajikistan was examined using IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) by simulating climate change and no climate change (baseline) scenarios between 2015 and 2050.

Year published

2024

Authors

Khakimov, Parviz; Aliev, Jovidon; Thomas, Timothy S.; Ilyasov, Jarilkasin; Pechtl, Sarah; Dunston, Shahnila

Citation

Khakimov, Parviz; Aliev, Jovidon; Thomas, Timothy S.; Ilyasov, Jarilkasin; Pechtl, Sarah; and Dunston, Shahnila. 2024. Climate change effects on agriculture in Tajikistan. Central Asia Policy Brief 7. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/141637

Country/Region

Tajikistan

Keywords

Central Asia; Climate Change; Agricultural Development; Agrifood Systems; Sustainable Development; Crops; Irrigation

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Climate change effects on food security in Tajikistan

2024Khakimov, Parviz; Aliev, Jovidon; Thomas, Timothy S.; Ilyasov, Jarilkasin; Pechtl, Sarah; Dunston, Shahnila
Details

Climate change effects on food security in Tajikistan

English: Climate change is one of the main challenges for food security in Tajikistan in the medium and long term. Tajikistan’s Agri-Food System and Sustainable Development Program (ASDP) for the period up to 2030 defined food and nutrition security as one of six priorities. Additionally, climate change is one of the key obstacles to the achievement of the country’s strategic objective defined in the National Development Strategy (NDS) 2016–2030, which is to improve the living standards of the population, and one of the four strategic priorities, which is to ensure food security and access to quality nutrition by 2030. The effects of climate change on food security in Tajikistan were examined using IFPRI’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) by simulating climate change and no climate change (baseline) scenarios between 2015 and 2050. Tajik: Тағйирёбии иқлим яке аз монеаҳои асосӣ барои амнияти озуқавории Тоҷикистон дар давраи миёнамӯҳлат ва дарозмӯҳлат мебошад. Дар Барномаи рушди низоми агроозуқаворӣ ва кишоварзии устувор барои давраи то соли 2030 таъмини амнияти озуқаворӣ ва ғизо ҳамчун яке аз шаш афзалиятҳои Барнома муайян шудааст. Илова бар ин, тағйирёбии иқлим яке аз монеаҳои асосӣ барои расидан ба ҳадафи стратегии кишвар – беҳтар кардани некуаҳволии аҳолӣ ва яке аз чор афзалиятҳои стратегӣ – таъмини амнияти озуқаворӣ ва дастрасӣ ба ғизои босифат то соли 2030, ки дар Стратегияи миллии рушд (СМР) барои солҳои 2016-2030 муайян шудаанд, мебошад. Таъсири тағйирёбии иқлим ба амнияти озуқаворӣ дар Тоҷикистон бо истифода аз Модели байналмиллалии таҳлили сиёсати маҳсулоти кишоварзӣ ва савдо (International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade, IMPACT) таҳлил карда шуд. Дар таҳлил сенарияҳои тағйирёбии иқлим ва базавӣ, яъне бе назардошти тағйирёбии иқлим дар байни солҳои 2015 ва 2050 ба назар гирифта шудааст.

Year published

2024

Authors

Khakimov, Parviz; Aliev, Jovidon; Thomas, Timothy S.; Ilyasov, Jarilkasin; Pechtl, Sarah; Dunston, Shahnila

Citation

Khakimov, Parviz; Aliev, Jovidon; Thomas, Timothy S.; Ilyasov, Jarilkasin; Pechtl, Sarah; and Dunston, Shahnila. 2024. Climate change effects on food security in Tajikistan. Central Asia Policy Brief 9. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/141633

Country/Region

Tajikistan

Keywords

Central Asia; Asia; Climate Change; Food Security; Sustainable Development; Nutrition

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

Blogs

For climate change, the American farmer is the sleeping giant
IFPRI Blog
 | 
September 07, 2017

For climate change, the American farmer is the sleeping giant

By Timothy Thomas

U.S. corn farmers have largely avoided rising temperatures during growing seasons. What happens when climate change kicks in?

Heat dome to do approximately $2 billion in damage to U.S. corn
IFPRI Blog
 | 
July 27, 2016

Heat dome to do approximately $2 billion in damage to U.S. corn

By Timothy Thomas

An IFPRI researcher's estimate shows just a few days of widespread high temperatures will end up harming U.S. corn yields

Do economic predictions of damage from climate change cause policymakers to focus on the wrong thing?
IFPRI Research Blog
 | 
December 01, 2015

Do economic predictions of damage from climate change cause policymakers to focus on the wrong thing?

By Timothy Thomas

Do economic predictions of damage from climate change cause policymakers to focus on the wrong thing?

Events

What does climate change mean for the future of agriculture? Insights from the IMPACT modeling system
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

May 15, 2024, 10:00 – 11:00 am

What does climate change mean for the future of agriculture? Insights from the IMPACT modeling system

Virtual Event: May 15, 2024 at 10:00am-11:00am EDT. This webinar, the first in the series, will focus on how IMPACT can be used to analyze how climate impacts on agrifood systems (and particularly crop productivity) may vary both across locations and over time in the coming decades, and how that can inform decisions about policies and investment today.

Beyond COVID-19: Strengthening Climate Resilience in Egypt’s Agricultural Sector
IFPRI Program/Country Event

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July 21, 2020, 2:00 – 3:00 pm

Beyond COVID-19: Strengthening Climate Resilience in Egypt’s Agricultural Sector

IFPRI’s Egypt Strategy Support Program (Egypt SSP) is organizing a seminar on research findings from an assessment of alternative adaptation options at the farm and policy levels. On-farm options include, among others, changing planting dates, improved seed technology, and alternative irrigation technologies, to name a few. Off-farm options include enhanced efficiency of farm input delivery and […]

Climate Change and Agriculture in Central America and the Andean Region
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

January 29, 2020, 10:00 – 11:00 am

Climate Change and Agriculture in Central America and the Andean Region

Climate change poses a threat to food security and nutrition, largely through its impacts on agricultural production. To help developing countries identify where adaptation measures are most needed, IFPRI, with support from the CGIAR Research Programs on Policy, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) and Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS), conducted a multiyear study to […]

News

December 14, 2015 | In the News

Can the Paris agreement protect poor farmers from climate change? (Thomson Reuters Foundation)

Research by Mark Rosegrant, Director of IFPRI’s Environment and Production Technology Division, and a team of distinguished researchers was featured by Thomson Reuters Foundation in a story about COP21. The work examined the effects of climate change on the Philippines and found that the number of people at risk of hunger will increase by 1.4 […]