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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

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researcher spotlight

Samuel Benin

Samuel Benin is the Acting Director for Africa in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit. He conducts research on national strategies and public investment for accelerating food systems transformation in Africa and provides analytical support to the African Union’s CAADP Biennial Review.

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Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Foresight and Policy Modeling

James Thurlow

Director, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM)

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Bio

James Thurlow is Director of the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, where he oversees the institute’s research program on the major drivers of inclusive agricultural transformation and sustainable development. James’ own research uses economywide models to study the interactions between policies and agrifood systems; structural, climate, and demographic change; and livelihoods, poverty, and food security. He has worked with researchers and governments across Africa and Asia to strengthen foresight capabilities and enhance the coherence of development strategies.

Publications

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Publications

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Journal Article

Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: case study of Malawi

2024Mukashov, Askar; Thomas, Timothy S.; Thurlow, James
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Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: case study of Malawi

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of agriculture-led versus non-agriculture-led development strategies under climate-induced economic uncertainty. Utilizing Malawi as a case study, we introduce the application of Stochastic Dominance (SD) analysis, a tool from decision analysis theory, and compare the two strategies in the context of weather/climate-associated economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest that an agriculture-led development strategy consistently surpasses its non-agriculture-led antagonist in poverty and undernourishment outcomes across almost all possible weather/climate scenarios. This underscores that, despite increasing exposure of the entire economy to weather/climate uncertainty, agriculture-led development remains the optimal strategy for Malawi to reduce poverty and undernourishment. The study also endorses the broader use of SD analysis in policy planning studies, promoting its potential to integrate risk and uncertainty into policymaking.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Thomas, Timothy S.; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Thomas, Timothy; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: case study of Malawi. Climatic Change 177. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03733-2

Country/Region

Malawi

Keywords

Eastern Africa; Agriculture; Development; Climate Change; Stochastic Models; Poverty; Undernutrition

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03733-2 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Journal Article

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Journal Article

From food subsidies to cash transfers: Assessing economy-wide benefits and trade-offs in Egypt

2024Breisinger, Clemens; Kassim, Yumna; Kurdi, Sikandra; Randriamamonjy, Josée; Thurlow, James
Details

From food subsidies to cash transfers: Assessing economy-wide benefits and trade-offs in Egypt

Food is a vital part of poor households’ budgets and so subsidizing staple foods would appear to be an obvious pro-poor policy. Indeed, most countries in North Africa have prioritized large national subsidy programs for staple foods and fuels as their main social safety net. However, these programs account for significant shares of government spending and often drive fiscal deficits, especially when import prices rise. In this paper we use a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model to evaluate the trade-offs between reducing poverty and managing fiscal balances. The modeling framework allows us to measure the efficiency costs of subsidies compared to cash transfers – switching to the latter is an emerging regional trend. We analyze these issues through a detailed case study of Egypt, where efforts to replace food subsidies with cash transfers is already underway. Data is also available in Egypt to design scenarios that realistically reflect potential targeting effectiveness and administrative costs. We show that replacing broad food subsidies with targeted cash transfers of roughly equivalent fiscal costs can improve the welfare of the poorest households, but the continuation of fiscal deficits results in a deceleration of economic growth. The latter gradually reduces welfare gains for the poor and leads to substantial welfare losses for middle-income households who lose access to subsidies without benefitting from cash transfers. Our findings highlight the political challenges facing subsidy reform programs.

Year published

2024

Authors

Breisinger, Clemens; Kassim, Yumna; Kurdi, Sikandra; Randriamamonjy, Josée; Thurlow, James

Citation

Breisinger, Clemens; Kassim, Yumna; Kurdi, Sikandra; Randriamamonjy, Josee; and Thurlow, James. 2024. From food subsidies to cash transfers: Assessing economy-wide benefits and trade-offs in Egypt. Journal of African Economies 33(2): 109–129. https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejad006

Country/Region

Egypt

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Food; Poor Households; Budgeting; Staple Foods; Policies; Subsidies; Social Safety Nets; Government Spending; Prices; Cash Transfers

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-NC-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejad006 Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Journal Article

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Working Paper

Small-scale irrigation protects farmers from climate-extreme events: Insights from the 2015/2016 ENSO in Ethiopia

2024Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Mekonnen, Yalew; Warner, James; Ringler, Claudia
Details

Small-scale irrigation protects farmers from climate-extreme events: Insights from the 2015/2016 ENSO in Ethiopia

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weather event of 2015/16 caused severe drought conditions in northern and central Ethiopia affecting the welfare of millions of farmers in late 2015 and early 2016. Using nationally representative panel data collected in 2012 and 2016 and recent advances in the difference-indifferences literature, this paper explores the effects of the 2015/16 drought and the potential role of irrigation in reducing the adverse effects of the drought. We find that the drought caused, on average, a 37 percent reduction in net annual crop income, an 8 percent decline in area cultivated, a 3 percent decline in household dietary diversity score, and a 10 percent decline in the share of harvest sold for rainfed farmers. On the other hand, irrigating farmers affected by the drought managed to increase their daily expenditures by 72 percent of their average daily food expenditure in the pre-drought period, and maintained their net crop income, size of cultivated land, household dietary diversity, and share of harvest sold to the market. Overall, while rainfed agricultural producers suffered sharp declines in welfare, those farmers with access to irrigation maintained their economic status. The results suggest that irrigation protected farmers from the adverse effects of the 2015/16 ENSO event and given increasing climate variability in Ethiopia, the government should intensify its investment and support to irrigation development in the country.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mekonnen, Dawit Kelemework; Mekonnen, Yalew; Warner, James; Ringler, Claudia

Citation

Mekonnen, Dawit K.; Mekonnen, Yalew; Warner, James; and Ringler, Claudia. 2024. Small-scale irrigation protects farmers from climate-extreme events: Insights from the 2015/2016 ENSO in Ethiopia. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2242. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/139780

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Drought; Irrigation; Resilience; Farmers

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

NEXUS Gains

Record type

Working Paper

Events

ICTforAg 2024: Localizing impact
IFPRI at External Event

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May 28, 2024, 9:00 – 5:00 pm

ICTforAg 2024: Localizing impact

Event: May 28, 2024 – 9:00am to 5:00pm EDT. This event explores the localization of ICT, responsible AI in agriculture, the potential for AI to increase farm profitability, empowering citizen science, and harnessing digital solutions for sustainable and regenerative farming practices.

Drivers of Agrifood System Transformation: Lessons from Feed-the-Future Country Studies
IFPRI at External Event

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February 28, 2024, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Drivers of Agrifood System Transformation: Lessons from Feed-the-Future Country Studies

Webinar: February 28, 2024 – 09:30 AM to 11:00 AM EST. IFPRI is participating in the “Drivers of Agrifood System Transformation: Lessons from Feed-the-Future Country Studies” webinar.

Implications of El Niño 2023/24 for Africa South of the Sahara
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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November 29, 2023, 7:30 – 9:00 am

Implications of El Niño 2023/24 for Africa South of the Sahara

Virtual Event: November 29, 2023 at 7:30am-9:00am EST. IFPRI in collaboration with USAID FEWS NET and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, is hosting a presentation on the potential impact of the upcoming El Niño on the global agrifood system, with special emphasis on low-income countries in Africa South of the Sahara. The event will be organized around four short talks.

News

February 03, 2021 | In the News

Integrated customer experience strategies essential to enterprise growth (Nigeria Communications Week)

Nigeria Communications Week published an article stating that a report from Nigeria’s Statistics Bureau showed that the economy contracted by 6.1% year on year by Quarter 2 of 2020 alone. This decline is Nigeria’s steepest recorded in the past decade. In addition, a report from IFPRI, Coronavirus: Lockdowns across Africa creating major economic loss showed that during the lockdown […]

June 18, 2020 | In the News

COVID-19: For pregnant women, it’s a tougher battle (Daily Trust) 

Daily Trust (Nigeria) reported on COVID-19, nutrition, and pregnancy. Poor diet is a common experience of low-income households during the lockdown. IFPRI said poor households in low and middle-Income Countries, like Nigeria, would have dramatic income effects due to “widespread unemployment resulting from COVID-19 mitigation measures” (see blogpost, COVID-19 lockdowns are imposing substantial economic costs on countries in Africa by James Thurlow).  Also reflecting both […]

May 15, 2020 | In the News

Coronavirus: Lockdowns across Africa creating major economic loss (The African Report)

The Africa Report published an op-ed by Senior Research Fellow James Thurlow who writes, “It is too soon to assess the full economic impacts that COVID-19 lockdowns will have on developing countries. But early research indicates that many African economies are significantly impacted and that poorer households are struggling.” He states that though it is early into the research of […]