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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Kalyani Raghunathan

Kalyani Raghunathan is Research Fellow in the Poverty, Gender, and Inclusion Unit, based in New Delhi, India. Her research lies at the intersection of agriculture, gender, social protection, and public health and nutrition, with a specific focus on South Asia and Africa. 

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IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Foresight and Policy Modeling

Liangzhi You

Senior Research Fellow

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Bio

Liangzhi You is a Senior Research Fellow and theme leader in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, based in Washington, DC. His research focuses on climate resilience, spatial data and analytics, agroecosystems, and agricultural science policy. Gridded crop production data of the world (SPAM) and the agricultural technology evaluation model (DREAM) are among his research contributions. He has published more than 160 articles in  journals including Science Advances, Nature Food, PNAS, Global Change Biology, Agricultural Systems, The Economic Journal, and Agricultural Economics.

Liangzhi earned a BS in hydraulic engineering from Tsinghua University, Beijing, and an MS in environmental economics and a PhD in civil engineering from Johns Hopkins University, US.

Publications

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Publications

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Journal Article

Observed trends in multiple breadbasket yield shocks

2024Chen, Xuan; Anderson, Weston; You, Liangzhi; Pope, Edward
Details

Observed trends in multiple breadbasket yield shocks

Extreme climate events in breadbasket regions have become more frequent due to climate change, exposing crops to a greater frequency and intensity of abiotic stress. But by using observed crop yield statistics and an ensemble of statistical models, we demonstrate that over the last six decades the frequency of crop yield shocks in breadbasket regions has been decreasing due to both climate and non-climate factors. Here non-climate factors refer to interannual variability unrelated to abiotic stress, such as biotic stress and management decisions. We find that although the risk posed by extreme heat to crop yields has been increasing, this risk has been offset by changes to precipitation, extremely cold days, and average growing season temperature in many breadbaskets. As a result, total climate-related crop yield shocks have been decreasing for soybeans and wheat, while they have remained roughly constant for maize. Meanwhile, non-climate risks to crop yields have decreased in nearly every breadbasket region across crops. Because non-climate risks have decreased faster than climate risks, we find that the climate accounts for a greater proportion of crop yield shocks in the recent period (1991–2020) compared to an earlier period (1961–90). Our results indicate that extreme climate events are more important than ever to the relative stability of the food production system, even as the overall frequency of multiple breadbasket yield shocks decreases.

Year published

2024

Authors

Chen, Xuan; Anderson, Weston; You, Liangzhi; Pope, Edward

Citation

Chen, Xuan; Anderson, Weston; You, Liangzhi; and Pope, Edward. 2024. Observed trends in multiple breadbasket yield shocks. Environmental Research Letters 19(10): 104005. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7040

Keywords

Abiotic Stress; Climate Change; Crop Yields; Extreme Weather Events; Food Systems

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7040 Source record

Project

Climate Resilience

Record type

Journal Article

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Journal Article

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase gaps of rice yields between low- and middle-to-high-income countries

2024
Song, Lian; Tao, Ye; van Groenigen, Kees Jan; Chang, Scott X.; Peñuelas, Josep; Zhang, Jishuang; You, Liangzhi; Cai, Chuang; Wang, Songhan; Jiang, Yu
…more Ma, Chuanqi; Yan, Xiaoyuan; Ni, Kang; Wang, Dongming; Wang, Yu; Zhu, Chunwu
Details

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase gaps of rice yields between low- and middle-to-high-income countries

The rising carbon dioxide concentrations are expected to increase future rice yields. However, variations in the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE) between rice subspecies and the influence of concurrent global warming introduce uncertainty in future global rice yield projections. Here we conducted a meta-analysis of rising carbon dioxide field experiments and employed crop modelling to assess future global rice yields for the top 14 rice producing countries. We found a robust parabolic relationship between rice CFE and temperature, with significant variations between rice subspecies. Our projections indicate that global rice production in the 2050s is expected to increase by 50.32 million tonnes (7.6%) due to CFE compared with historical production. Because low-income countries will experience higher temperatures, the gaps (difference of Δyield) between middle-to-high-income and low-income countries are projected to widen from the 2030s to the 2090s under elevated carbon dioxide. These findings underscore the critical role of CFE and emphasize the necessity to increase investments in research and technology for rice producing systems in low-income countries.

Year published

2024

Authors

Song, Lian; Tao, Ye; van Groenigen, Kees Jan; Chang, Scott X.; Peñuelas, Josep; Zhang, Jishuang; You, Liangzhi; Cai, Chuang; Wang, Songhan; Jiang, Yu; Ma, Chuanqi; Yan, Xiaoyuan; Ni, Kang; Wang, Dongming; Wang, Yu; Zhu, Chunwu

Citation

Song, Lian; Tao, Ye; van Groenigen, Kees Jan; Chang, Scott X.; Peñuelas, Josep; Zhang, Jishuang; You, Liangzhi; et al. 2024. Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase gaps of rice yields between low- and middle-to-high-income countries. Nature Food 5: 754-763. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-024-01021-x

Keywords

Carbon Dioxide; Crop Yields; Global Warming; Less Favoured Areas; Rice; Technology

Language

English

Access/Licence

Limited Access

Links

https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-024-01021-x Source record

Project

Climate Resilience

Record type

Journal Article

Resource thumbnail

Journal Article

Determinants of changes in harvested area and yields of major crops in China

2024Yin, Fang; Sun, Zhanli; You, Liangzhi; Müller, Daniel
Details

Determinants of changes in harvested area and yields of major crops in China

Global agricultural production has risen substantially in recent decades and needs to rise further to meet the ever-growing food demand. While higher production can be directly attributed to agricultural expansion and intensification, the underlying factors behind the changes in cultivated areas and yields can be complicated and have not been well understood. China has dramatically increased its food production in past decades, especially during the initial approximately 30 years following the commencement of the rural reform in the late 1970s. The agricultural land use, including cropland areas, the composition of different crops and their spatial distributions, and crop yields have experienced substantial changes. In this research, we quantitatively analysed the changes in the harvested areas and yields of the four most widely cultivated crops in China (rice, wheat, maize, and soybean) at the county level from 1980 to 2011. We used spatial panel regressions to quantify the determinants of the observed changes in harvested area and yields for the major cultivation region of each of the four crops. Results showed that growth in population, gross domestic product, and urbanisation are positively associated with harvested areas. Higher usage of machinery and fertiliser inputs increased yields of the three cereal crops, while the harvested area of soybean decreased, particularly after China’s accession to the WTO. Our findings reveal how domestic urbanisation and changes in consumption patterns, coupled with the rising globalisation of agricultural markets, shaped China’s agricultural production and land use over the three decades. These insights shed light on the determinants of long-term agricultural dynamics and thus inform evidence-based decision-making.

Year published

2024

Authors

Yin, Fang; Sun, Zhanli; You, Liangzhi; Müller, Daniel

Citation

Yin, Fang; Sun, Zhanli; You, Liangzhi; and Müller, Daniel. 2024. Determinants of changes in harvested area and yields of major crops in China. Food Security 16(2): 339-351. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-023-01424-x

Country/Region

China

Keywords

Asia; Eastern Asia; Agricultural Production; Capacity Development; Crops; Demand; Harvesting; Yields

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-023-01424-x Source record

Project

Climate Resilience

Record type

Journal Article

Events

How can we improve global crop mapping? IFPRI’s Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM)
IFPRI Program/Country Event

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November 21, 2024, 11:00 – 12:00 pm

How can we improve global crop mapping? IFPRI’s Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM)

Accessibility to consistent, subnational, spatial information on crops globally will be hugely beneficial to  researchers and policy makers. Researchers need this data to evaluate the benefits and costs of adopting new crop and livestock technologies, estimate the impact of climate change on agriculture calculate yield gaps, and analyze the historical evolution of farming systems. Policymakers, […]

Implications of El Niño 2023/24 for Africa South of the Sahara
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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November 29, 2023, 7:30 – 9:00 am

Implications of El Niño 2023/24 for Africa South of the Sahara

Virtual Event: November 29, 2023 at 7:30am-9:00am EST. IFPRI in collaboration with USAID FEWS NET and NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, is hosting a presentation on the potential impact of the upcoming El Niño on the global agrifood system, with special emphasis on low-income countries in Africa South of the Sahara. The event will be organized around four short talks.

Global Food Security Forum for Young Scientists
IFPRI at External Event

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December 2 to 3, 2022

Global Food Security Forum for Young Scientists

Hybrid Event: December 2, 2022 – 8:00 AM to December 3, 2022 – 6:00 PM HKT. This forum aims to bring together scientists, scholars and innovators from different subjects to discuss their research findings and exchange innovative ideas on all aspects of global food security.

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News

October 23, 2019 | In the News

Real-time insurance for farm credit helps Kenyans weather drought (Reuters)

Reuters reported on the  Risk-Contingent Credit (RCC), an insurance scheme that provides security for a farmer’s loan by paying it down if the harvest is damaged by extreme weather. Senior Research Fellow  Liangzhi You, a scientist with tIFPRI, which co-led and designed the RCC project explained, “If the droughts come, it takes much more resources […]

September 21, 2019 | In the News

International HE partnership cracks drought debt problem (University World News)

The University World News reported on a new credit scheme that cushions smallholder farmers in Kenya’s dryland areas from frequent droughts. IFPRI researcher, Liangzhi You, stated the new program faces some impediments. “I would say the commercial bank still needs some kind of incentives from the government to lend to poor farmers.”

September 05, 2019 | In the News

Kenyan Farmers Benefit From Insured Loans (VOA)

Voice of America (VOA) published an online feature story on a novel approach to funding small farmers called Risk Contingent Credit Scheme (RCC). Led by IFPRI’s Liangzhi You, RCC offers farmers insured loans that help them purchase farm inputs, while also cushioning them against potential losses accrued from crop failures. 

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