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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Kalyani Raghunathan

Kalyani Raghunathan is Research Fellow in the Poverty, Gender, and Inclusion Unit, based in New Delhi, India. Her research lies at the intersection of agriculture, gender, social protection, and public health and nutrition, with a specific focus on South Asia and Africa. 

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experts

Foresight and Policy Modeling

Askar Mukashov

Associate Research Fellow

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ORCiD

Bio

Askar Mukashov is an Associate Research Fellow in IFPRI’s Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. He is a development economist whose research focuses on climate-related economic uncertainty and development strategies, using country-specific computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and various satellite models. His past research included evaluating public investments and policies, analyzing the economywide impact of external shocks such as climate change, and several methodologically focused contributions dedicated to modeling uncertainty. Before recently joining IFPRI, Askar worked as a postdoctoral researcher at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. He received his doctoral degree in economics from the University of Kiel, Germany.

Publications

RePEc Author Profile

CV

Publications

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Working Paper

Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi

2024Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James; Arndt, Channing; Thomas, Timothy S.
Details

Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi

This paper uses machine learning, simulation, and data mining methods to develop Systematic Risk Profiles of three developing economies: Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi. We focus on three exogenous shocks with implications for economic performance: world market prices, capital flows, and climate-driven sectoral productivity. In these and other developing countries, recent decades have been characterized by increased risks associated with all these factors, and there is a demand for instruments that can help to disentangle them. For each country, we utilize historical data to develop multi-variate distributions of shocks. We then sample from these distributions to obtain a series of shock vectors, which we label economic uncertainty scenarios. These scenarios are then entered into economywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation models for the three countries, which allow us to quantify the impact of increased uncertainty on major economic indicators. Finally, we utilize importance metrics from the random forest machine learning algorithm and relative importance metrics from multiple linear regression models to quantify the importance of country-specific risk factors for country performance. We find that Malawi and Rwanda are more vulnerable to sectoral productivity shocks, and Kenya is more exposed to external risks. These findings suggest that a country’s level of development and integration into the global economy are key driving forces defining their risk profiles. The methodology of Systematic Risk Profiling can be applied to many other countries, delineating country-specific risks and vulnerabilities.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James; Arndt, Channing; Thomas, Timothy S.

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James; Arndt, Channing; and Thomas, Timothy S. 2024. Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2286. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Kenya; Rwanda; Malawi

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Climate; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Machine Learning; Risk; Uncertainty

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Working Paper

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Journal Article

Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: Case study of Malawi

2024Mukashov, Askar; Thomas, Timothy S.; Thurlow, James
Details

Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: Case study of Malawi

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of agriculture-led versus non-agriculture-led development strategies under climate-induced economic uncertainty. Utilizing Malawi as a case study, we introduce the application of Stochastic Dominance (SD) analysis, a tool from decision analysis theory, and compare the two strategies in the context of weather/climate-associated economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest that an agriculture-led development strategy consistently surpasses its non-agriculture-led antagonist in poverty and undernourishment outcomes across almost all possible weather/climate scenarios. This underscores that, despite increasing exposure of the entire economy to weather/climate uncertainty, agriculture-led development remains the optimal strategy for Malawi to reduce poverty and undernourishment. The study also endorses the broader use of SD analysis in policy planning studies, promoting its potential to integrate risk and uncertainty into policymaking.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Thomas, Timothy S.; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Thomas, Timothy; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: Case study of Malawi. Climatic Change 177: 91. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03733-2

Country/Region

Malawi

Keywords

Eastern Africa; Agriculture; Development; Climate Change; Stochastic Models; Poverty; Undernutrition

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03733-2 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Journal Article

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Report

From climate risk to resilience: Unpacking the economic impacts of climate change in Malawi

2023Detelinova, Iva; Thomas, Timothy S.; Hammond, Wole; Arndt, Channing; Mukashov, Askar
Details

From climate risk to resilience: Unpacking the economic impacts of climate change in Malawi

Climate change is not projected to materially alter Malawi’s climate profile. Instead, it is likely to exacerbate existing climate vulnerabilities by increasing the frequency and intensity of cyclones, floods, and droughts. This is largely due to increased uncertainty around future precipitation levels. These adverse effects have already started to materialize and are expected to increase substantially over the next decades, particularly if efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by high emitting countries are insufficient. Climate change is also projected to increase average annual temperatures across the country. Climate change is expected to significantly affect Malawi’s economy, mainly because of its dependence on climate-sensitive economic sectors and its low capacity to take adaptation measures due to preexisting macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Malawi’s sensitivity to climate shocks is underpinned by significant environmental degradation, in particular deforestation, watershed degradation, and poor soil management. The two main impact channels are likely to be agriculture and road infrastructure. In agriculture, the increased uncertainty around future precipitation levels in Malawi will likely result in higher variability in crop yields. Climate change is projected to exacerbate preexisting environmental degradation challenges, including soil erosion. These effects are particularly problematic due to Malawi’s high poverty rate, lack of economic diversification (the agriculture sector represents one-third of the economy and employs over 70 percent of the workforce), and significant dependence on rainfed production (about 80 percent of the population). Climate change is likely to significantly impact Malawi’s road infrastructure, mainly due to increased risk of flooding, which would have broader economic and social knock-on impacts.

Year published

2023

Authors

Detelinova, Iva; Thomas, Timothy S.; Hammond, Wole; Arndt, Channing; Mukashov, Askar

Citation

Detelinova, Iva; Thomas, Timothy S.; Hammond, Wole; Arndt, Channing; and Mukashov, Askar. 2023. From climate risk to resilience: Unpacking the economic impacts of climate change in Malawi. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute; Cape Town: The African Climate Foundation.

Country/Region

Malawi

Keywords

Southern Africa; Eastern Africa; Climate Change; Extreme Weather Events; Environmental Degradation; Agriculture; Infrastructure; Poverty; Economic Aspects

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136955 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Report

Blogs

Revisiting development strategies under climate uncertainty: Insights from Malawi
IFPRI Blog
 | 
July 19, 2024

Revisiting development strategies under climate uncertainty: Insights from Malawi

By Askar Mukashov and Eleanor Jones

Does the threat of climate change significantly undermine strategies focusing on agriculture?

Events

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

August 2 to 7, 2024

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists

The triennial International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE-2024), centred on the theme “Transformation Towards Sustainable Agri-Food Systems” is scheduled from August 2-7, 2024, in New Delhi, India. The conference offers a distinctive platform, providing a golden opportunity for the agricultural academic institutions and researchers to convene in person, exchange knowledge, and actively contribute to the […]