International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie)

International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie) promotes evidence-informed equitable, inclusive and sustainable development. 3ie supports the generation and effective use of high-quality evidence to inform decision-making and improve the lives of people living in poverty in low- and middle-income countries. 3ie provides guidance and support to produce, synthesize and quality assure evidence of what works, for whom, how, why, and at what cost.

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Projects

Picture-Based Crop Insurance (PBI)

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Publications

Working Paper

Soft-skills training, locus of control, and labor market outcomes of youth: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Kenya

2024Abay, Kibrom A.; Alzua, Maria Laura; Barasa, Laura; Machio, Phyllis Mumia; Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul Jr.

Details

Soft-skills training, locus of control, and labor market outcomes of youth: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Kenya

Africa has the youngest population in the world, but African economies are not creating enough high-productivity jobs, and rates of youth unemployment thus remain a major challenge in the region. Several supply- and demand-side factors may explain these trends, including skill gaps. While traditional technical and vocational education and training (TVET) centers address important gaps in hard (technical) skills, soft-skills trainings have not yet received sufficient attention in the African context. We evaluate the overall and heterogenous impact of a gender-sensitive soft-skills training that aimed to address youths’ unique interests, preferences, and labor market constraints in Kenya. We also examine whether the presence (or absence) of complementary noncognitive skills, such as locus-of-control skills, moderates the impact of the soft-skills training. We use a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of a soft-skills training to support young men and women in making the transition from school to work in Kenya. Our evaluation combines baseline, midline, and endline data to understand the dynamics of labor market transitions for youth. We find that although the soft-skills training prepared youth for the labor market by improving their willingness, expectations, and preparedness for jobs, the impact of the soft-skills training on ultimate labor market outcomes varies across individuals with varying psychological traits. The training improved labor market outcomes for those with internal locus of control but not for individuals who lack these attributes. One standard deviation increase in (internal) locus of control is associated with a 5 percentage-point increase in the impact of the soft-skills training on probability of participation in income-earning activities. We also find that returns to locus of control and the soft-skills training are higher for females than males.

Year published

2024

Authors

Abay, Kibrom A.; Alzua, Maria Laura; Barasa, Laura; Machio, Phyllis Mumia; Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul Jr.

Citation

Abay, Kibrom A.; Alzua, Maria Laura; Barasa, Laura; Machio, Phyllis Mumia; and Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul Jr. 2024. Soft-skills training, locus of control, and labor market outcomes of youth: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Kenya. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2294. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Communication; Labour Market; Skill Training; Youth

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Working Paper

Medium-scale livestock farms in Asia’s rapidly transforming food systems

2024Ebata, Ayako; Belton, Ben

Details

Medium-scale livestock farms in Asia’s rapidly transforming food systems

Academic and policy debates on agriculture emphasize a bimodal typology of ‘small-scale’ and ‘large-scale’ farms. In this article, we draw attention to the role and distinct characteristics of medium-scale monogastric livestock farms in the Global South, drawing on an empirically grounded typology of scale that incorporates three linked components: (1) Social and economic organization of production; (2) Technological choice and environmental impacts, and; (3) Food system linkages and spillovers. We review national livestock sector policy documents from three Asian countries – Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Vietnam – with reference to the typology, and compare assumptions embedded in the policies with the characteristics of farm scale revealed by the typology. Our analysis indicates that current policy goals are not well aligned with the characteristics of medium-scale livestock farming in the region. This disconnect presents a missed opportunity to enhance the livestock sector’s contributions to rural economies, nutrition security, food safety, and environmental performance. We conclude with examples of how policies could maintain and enhance medium-scale monogastriclivestock farms’ contributions to sustainable intensification, public health, and livelihoods.

Year published

2024

Authors

Ebata, Ayako; Belton, Ben

Citation

Ebata, Ayako; and Belton, Ben. 2024. Medium-scale livestock farms in Asia’s rapidly transforming food systems. IFPRI Working Paper November 2024. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Bangladesh; Myanmar; Vietnam

Keywords

Southern Asia; Agriculture; Typology; Farm Size; Livestock; Policies; Rural Economics; Nutrition Security; Food Safety; Sustainability

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Asian Mega-Deltas

Record type

Working Paper

Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi

2024Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James; Arndt, Channing; Thomas, Timothy S.

Details

Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi

This paper uses machine learning, simulation, and data mining methods to develop Systematic Risk Profiles of three developing economies: Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi. We focus on three exogenous shocks with implications for economic performance: world market prices, capital flows, and climate-driven sectoral productivity. In these and other developing countries, recent decades have been characterized by increased risks associated with all these factors, and there is a demand for instruments that can help to disentangle them. For each country, we utilize historical data to develop multi-variate distributions of shocks. We then sample from these distributions to obtain a series of shock vectors, which we label economic uncertainty scenarios. These scenarios are then entered into economywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation models for the three countries, which allow us to quantify the impact of increased uncertainty on major economic indicators. Finally, we utilize importance metrics from the random forest machine learning algorithm and relative importance metrics from multiple linear regression models to quantify the importance of country-specific risk factors for country performance. We find that Malawi and Rwanda are more vulnerable to sectoral productivity shocks, and Kenya is more exposed to external risks. These findings suggest that a country’s level of development and integration into the global economy are key driving forces defining their risk profiles. The methodology of Systematic Risk Profiling can be applied to many other countries, delineating country-specific risks and vulnerabilities.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James; Arndt, Channing; Thomas, Timothy S.

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James; Arndt, Channing; and Thomas, Timothy S. 2024. Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2286. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Kenya; Rwanda; Malawi

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Climate; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Machine Learning; Risk; Uncertainty

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight