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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Manuel Hernandez

Manuel Hernandez is a Senior Research Fellow in the Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit of IFPRI. He has more than 20 years of experience in diverse projects in Latin America, Africa, and Asia on development issues related to agricultural and labor markets, food security and nutrition, industrial organization and regulation, price analysis, and the informal economy. His current research focuses on impact evaluation linked to rural development and food security projects, migration, functioning of oligopoly markets and value chains, and price volatility.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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Russian Federation, in partnership with Lomonosov Moscow State University’s Eurasian Center for Food Security, works to improve food security through a sustainable management of natural resources and food market regulation. Its mission is to encourage and coordinate collective action to strengthen food security in Eurasia through research and development. The Center was created in a response to the G8’s L’Aquila Food Security Initiative and prioritizes food security and agricultural sustainability as important policy developments at the global, regional and national levels.

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Publications

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Working Paper

Under the gun: Military and paramilitary actors in Sudan’s agri-food system

2025Resnick, Danielle; Abushama, Hala; Ahmed, Mosab; Kirui, Oliver K.; Siddig, Khalid
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Under the gun: Military and paramilitary actors in Sudan’s agri-food system

Armed actors, including militaries and paramilitaries, are heavily entrenched in the agrifood systems of several low- and middle-income countries, often resulting in negative implications for both agricultural transformation and democratic transitions. However, the role of armed actors is overlooked in the scholarship on the governance of agricultural value chains. To address this gap, this paper focuses on the role of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan’s agrifood system. Through over 50 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, the paper traces how the SAF and RSF initially gained their foothold in the agrifood system and how they interact with each other, and the private sector across diverse value chains. We argue that these actors decide to pursue investments in certain value chains depending on the extent to which the private sector is already involved and the degree of technical complexity required to attain more profitable product upgrading. Based on these considerations, we uncover four strategies used by SAF and RSF in different value chains: exclusive capture and rent extraction, competition through biased licensing and quota allocations, acquiescence to existing private competitors when value-addition is too complex, and innovation when potential is high and the private sector is absent. We show how these strategies manifest across value chains as diverse as livestock, wheat, gum Arabic, and horticulture, with secondary applications to other commodities. Given that economic competition between SAF and RSF was a major factor in the outbreak of the 2023 armed conflict, identifying how these strategies emerged and manifested not only contributes to the literature on business-state relations but also expands insights about the political economy antecedents of large-scale conflict.

Year published

2025

Authors

Resnick, Danielle; Abushama, Hala; Ahmed, Mosab; Kirui, Oliver K.; Siddig, Khalid

Citation

Resnick, Danielle; Abushama, Hala; Ahmed, Mosab; Kirui, Oliver Kiptoo; and Siddig, Khalid. 2025. Under the gun: Military and paramilitary actors in Sudan’s agri-food system. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2328. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173517

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Agricultural Transformation; Food Systems; Military Operations; Political Aspects; Value Chains

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Journal Article

Seed certification, certified seeds use and yield outcomes in Nigeria: Insights from nationally-representative farm panel data and seed company location data

2025
Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Ragasa, Catherine; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Andam, Kwaw S.; Spielman, David J.; Edeh, Hyacinth O.; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Haile, Beliyou; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Omoigui, Lucky O.
…more Abdoulaye, Tahirou; Kumar, P. Lava; Wossen, Tesfamicheal
Details

Seed certification, certified seeds use and yield outcomes in Nigeria: Insights from nationally-representative farm panel data and seed company location data

CONTEXT Despite the importance of enhanced seed quality to agricultural productivity growth, evidence remains scarce regarding the nature and possible drivers of returns to formal sector quality assurance systems, including certified seeds production in countries like Nigeria that focus significantly on the formal-sector seed systems. OBJECTIVE This study narrows this knowledge gap by estimating the effect of the quantity of certified seeds produced and the spatial variations where they are produced on the use of certified seeds and yields. We also assess the yield effects of certified seeds use and their relationship with agroclimatic and socioeconomic conditions. METHODS We combine nationally-representative farm-household survey panel data with spatial data on the headquarters locations of seed companies, the quantity of certified seeds for maize, cowpea, and rice that they produce, and spatially explicit agroecological data. We apply panel fixed effects methods as well as instrumental-variable methods to address potential endogeneity associated with certified seeds use while also controlling for the use of improved varieties to separate their effects from the effects of certified seeds. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicate that the availability of certified seeds—captured by indicators of certified seeds produced by seed companies headquartered in the states of survey respondents—is associated with positive but declining marginal effects on certified seeds use and yields. These results are robust when we also consider the potential within-state heterogeneity in the proximity to seed company headquarters, as well as potential spillovers from the nearest adjacent states. The yield effects of certified seeds are heterogeneous and depend on agroclimatic conditions and farmers’ socioeconomic characteristics. The use of certified seeds is somewhat higher in areas with higher yield effects after controlling for certified seeds production. These patterns partly lead to observed non-linearities in certified seeds use because certified seeds may be more likely to be used by farmers with higher expected returns than farmers with lower expected returns. These results underscore the importance of spatially targeted efforts in enhancing certified seeds production capacity, together with the exploration of intermediate quality standards in the short term where costs of seed certification are high relative to returns. SIGNIFICANCE The study provides unique quantitative evidence in a nationally representative framework in an African country that returns to seed certification systems in the current setting significantly vary depending on contexts, including agroclimatic conditions.

Year published

2025

Authors

Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Ragasa, Catherine; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Andam, Kwaw S.; Spielman, David J.; Edeh, Hyacinth O.; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Haile, Beliyou; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Omoigui, Lucky O.; Abdoulaye, Tahirou; Kumar, P. Lava; Wossen, Tesfamicheal

Citation

Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Ragasa, Catherine; Bamiwuye, Temilolu; Andam, Kwaw S.; Spielman, David J.; Edeh, Hyacinth O.; Fasoranti, Adetunji; Haile, Beliyou; et al. 2025. Seed certification, certified seeds use and yield outcomes in Nigeria: Insights from nationally-representative farm panel data and seed company location data. Agricultural Systems 224(March 2025): 104268. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104268

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Western Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Seed Certification; Seeds; Yields; Data; Agricultural Productivity; Spatial Data; Surveys

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104268 Source record

Project

Seed Equal

Record type

Journal Article

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Working Paper

The dynamic impacts of alternative livestock sector intervention and spending options in Rwanda

2025Aragie, Emerta A.; Bahta, Sirak T.; Baltenweck, Isabelle; Enahoro, Dolapo K.; Karugia, Joseph T.; Thurlow, James; Warner, James
Details

The dynamic impacts of alternative livestock sector intervention and spending options in Rwanda

This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of various livestock interventions—feed, breeding, and health—and budget allocation strategies (balanced, feed-oriented, breeding oriented, and health-oriented) in the context of Rwanda’s economic and livestock systems. Using an economic and livestock systems integrated framework, the research highlights moderate yet sustained impacts on agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and significant improvements in the livestock sector. Overall, breeding interventions have the largest cumulative effect on agricultural GDP, while health measures, particularly dewormers, yield long-term gains in livestock productivity. Under the balanced scenario, breeding contributes significantly to both meat and milk sector GDP, while feed interventions show a smaller impact overall. The study also finds that biased spending scenarios lead to differing outcomes across livestock sub-sectors. Breeding-oriented spending boosts milk GDP initially, whereas health-oriented spending excels in meat production through reduced deaths and increased liveweight. By the end of the simulation period, a balanced investment strategy results in a 12.5 percent increase in meat yield and a 27 percent rise in milk yield, largely driven by breeding. Health interventions, particularly deworming, are crucial for sustained meat production, while improved feed mitigates mortality and supports stock growth. These results can support policy dialogue, such as the recently introduced Fifth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 5), as policy makers seek to revitalize the livestock sector and enhance its resilience to future challenges.

Year published

2025

Authors

Aragie, Emerta A.; Bahta, Sirak T.; Baltenweck, Isabelle; Enahoro, Dolapo K.; Karugia, Joseph T.; Thurlow, James; Warner, James

Citation

Aragie, Emerta; Bahta, Sirak; Baltenweck, Isabelle; Enahoro, Dolapo; Karugia, Joseph; Thurlow, James; and Warner, James. 2025. The dynamic impacts of alternative livestock sector intervention and spending options in Rwanda. Rwanda SSP Working Paper 15. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173465

Country/Region

Rwanda

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Livestock; Agriculture; Agricultural Policies; Gross National Product

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Policies, Institutions, and Markets

Record type

Working Paper