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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Kate Ambler

Kate Amber is a Senior Research Fellow in the Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit. Kate’s research broadly focuses on interventions that can increase incomes for smallholders and other microenterprises in agrifood value chains, with a specific focus on the inclusion of women. This includes work on programming in fragile settings, innovations in agricultural finance, and regulatory solutions for food safety. 

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Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Markets, Trade, and Institutions

Brendan Rice

Research Specialist

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Bio

Brendan Rice is a Research Specialist in the Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit with experience in agribusiness, market analysis, and value chain development. He works primarily on food and input price monitoring, food crisis risk, and market intelligence for seed systems development. Before joining IFPRI, he worked at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) on agribusiness-related projects and at the social enterprise KadAfrica. He holds a master’s degree in sustainable international agriculture (global agribusiness and development economics) from the University of Göttingen.

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Publications

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Journal Article

Global shocks to fertilizer markets: Impacts on prices, demand and farm profitability

2025Vos, Rob; Glauber, Joseph W.; Hebebrand, Charlotte; Rice, Brendan
Details

Global shocks to fertilizer markets: Impacts on prices, demand and farm profitability

During 2021–2022, spiking fertilizer prices raised fears that fertilizer application would drop around the world, leading to lower crop production, higher food prices, and greater food insecurity. Even writing mid-2024, a paucity of data impedes a full assessment of how the underlying global market shocks may have affected farmers and food production around the world. Using proxy indicators for fertilizer demand and farm profitability, we find that despite the steep increase in input costs, global demand for fertilizer fell only modestly during the 2022–2023 crop cycle, suggesting many (commercial) farmers were able and willing to absorb increased input costs in the context of generally good harvest prospects and, at the time, high crop prices. However, we also find the fertilizer price spikes have not been felt equally, with many farmers in Africa estimated to have been affected more adversely, even though with varied impacts also amongst those farmers.

Year published

2025

Authors

Vos, Rob; Glauber, Joseph W.; Hebebrand, Charlotte; Rice, Brendan

Citation

Vos, Rob; Glauber, Joseph W.; Hebebrand, Charlotte; and Rice, Brendan. 2025. Global shocks to fertilizer markets: Impacts on prices, demand and farm profitability. Food Policy 133(May 2025): 102790. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102790

Keywords

Shock; Fertilizers; Markets; Prices; Profitability; Global Value Chains; Supply Chain Disruptions

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-NC-ND-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102790 Source record

Project

Rethinking Food Markets

Record type

Journal Article

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Report

2024 Global report on food crises: Joint analysis for better decisions

2024Food Security Information Network; Minot, Nicholas; Rice, Brendan; Vos, Rob
Details

2024 Global report on food crises: Joint analysis for better decisions

The Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC) 2024 confirms the enormity of the challenge of achieving the goal of ending hunger by 2030. In 2023, nearly 282 million people or 21.5 percent of the analysed population in 59 countries/territories faced high levels of acute food insecurity requiring urgent food and livelihood assistance. This additional 24 million people since 2022 is explained by expanded analysis coverage as well as deteriorating acute food insecurity in some countries outweighing improvements in others. Palestine (Gaza Strip) and the Sudan were the most devastatingly deteriorating food crises. The number of people experiencing catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity rose to over 0.7 million – almost double the number of 2022 – with nearly 0.6 million of them in the Gaza Strip. Published by the Food Security Information Network (FSIN) in support of the Global Network against Food Crises (GNAFC), the GRFC 2024 is the reference document for global, regional and country-level acute food insecurity in 2023. The report is the result of a collaborative effort among 16 partners to achieve a consensus-based assessment of acute food insecurity and malnutrition in countries with food crises and aims to inform humanitarian and development action.

Year published

2024

Authors

Food Security Information Network; Minot, Nicholas; Rice, Brendan; Vos, Rob

Citation

FSIN and Global Network Against Food Crises. 2024. GRFC 2024. Rome. https://www.fsinplatform.org/grfc2024

Keywords

Food Security; Nutrition; Conflicts; Displacement

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Report

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Book Chapter

The Russia-Ukraine war is exacerbating international food price volatility

2023Rice, Brendan; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Glauber, Joseph W.; Vos, Rob
Details

The Russia-Ukraine war is exacerbating international food price volatility

The IFPRI Food Security Portal’s Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System is showing excessive levels of price volatility in the four major food commodities: wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans, as well as cotton. Markets for hard and soft wheat and soybeans had already been more volatile than normal since late 2021, well ahead of Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022. That conflict, coming on top of the ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, has already contributed to spiking food prices, with possible major consequences for global food security. Rising price volatility poses a distinct threat, as it induces greater market uncertainty, which affects production decisions, and can spur speculative behavior. Both would fan further food price inflation. What is driving the current price volatility, and what are its implications for markets and food security?

Year published

2023

Authors

Rice, Brendan; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Glauber, Joseph W.; Vos, Rob

Citation

Rice, Brendan; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Glauber, Joseph W.; and Vos, Rob. 2023. The Russia-Ukraine war is exacerbating international food price volatility. In The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Global Food Security, eds. Joseph Glauber and David Laborde Debucquet. Section One: A Conflict with Global Consequences, Chapter 4, Pp. 24-26. https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294394_04.

Country/Region

Ukraine

Keywords

Russia; Eastern Europe; Europe; Shock; Policies; War; Coronavirus; Covid-19; Commodities; Cotton; Rice; Maize; Inflation; Soybeans; Agriculture; Markets; Trade; Coronavirinae; Food Security; Price Volatility; Conflicts; Coronavirus Disease; Wheat; Prices; Climate Change

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294394_04 Source record

Record type

Book Chapter

Blogs

Risk of famine remains high in Gaza
IFPRI Blog
 | 
June 28, 2024

Risk of famine remains high in Gaza

By Rob Vos, Sara Gustafson, Sediqa Zaki, and Brendan Rice

After a reprieve, more dangerous conditions are reemerging.

Who’s afraid of high fertilizer prices?
IFPRI Blog
 | 
March 21, 2024

Who’s afraid of high fertilizer prices?

By Brendan Rice and Rob Vos

Assessing the impacts of recent spikes.

No end in sight yet for the global food price crisis
IFPRI Blog
 | 
September 27, 2022

No end in sight yet for the global food price crisis

By Joseph Glauber, Manuel Hernández, David Laborde, Will Martin, Brendan Rice, and Rob Vos

Continuing fallout from the the Russia-Ukraine war.

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Events

ICTforAg 2024: Localizing impact
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

May 28, 2024, 9:00 – 5:00 pm

ICTforAg 2024: Localizing impact

Event: May 28, 2024 – 9:00am to 5:00pm EDT. This event explores the localization of ICT, responsible AI in agriculture, the potential for AI to increase farm profitability, empowering citizen science, and harnessing digital solutions for sustainable and regenerative farming practices.