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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Emily Schmidt

Emily Schmidt is a Senior Research Fellow in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit. Her most recent research explores household livelihood strategies in Papua New Guinea, including linkages between agriculture, poverty, and nutrition outcomes among rural smallholder farmers.

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Development Strategies and Governance

Gilberthe Benimana

Senior Research Analyst

Bio

Gilberthe Uwera Benimana is a Senior Research Analyst in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit, based in IFPRI’s Rwanda Office in Kigali. Her research is centered on the intricate relationships among ecosystem dynamics, agricultural transformation, and the establishment of resilient, sustainable food systems. At IFPRI, Gilberthe is instrumental in shaping effective agricultural policies. Her work provides empirically grounded insights into the complexities of the agricultural sector and broader food systems dynamics. Gilberthe holds a Collaborative master’s in agriculture and applied economics (CMAAE) from the University of Nairobi, Kenya, specializing in Agricultural Policy Analysis and International Trade from the University of Pretoria, South Africa.

Development Strategies and Governance

Publications

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Journal Article

Fertilizer policy reforms in the midst of crisis: Evidence from Rwanda

2025Spielman, David J.; Mugabo, Serge; Rosenbach, Gracie; Ndikumana, Sosthene; Benimana, Gilberthe Uwera; Ingabire, Chantal
Details

Fertilizer policy reforms in the midst of crisis: Evidence from Rwanda

Fertilizer subsidies are a prominent feature of many agricultural development strategies in sub-Saharan Africa, but few countries have the necessary data to make rapid decisions about their management in the face of exogenous shocks. This was the case in Rwanda following the rapid increase in international fertilizer prices in 2021–22. Working within a constrained fiscal space that followed the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government of Rwanda aimed to revise its fertilizer subsidy system to accommodate higher fertilizer import prices without compromising progress against its agricultural growth targets. This paper explores both the economic analysis and policy process that shaped decision-making around Rwanda’s fertilizer subsidy system during the period 2020–23. The paper centers on the design and application of a microsimulation model that estimated—almost in real time—the impact of increased fertilizer prices on crop production during this period. It then explores the policy outcomes that followed, emphasizing the scope for subsidy reductions even in the midst of crisis, the critical importance of strengthening agricultural data systems, and lessons for countries facing similar challenges.

Year published

2025

Authors

Spielman, David J.; Mugabo, Serge; Rosenbach, Gracie; Ndikumana, Sosthene; Benimana, Gilberthe Uwera; Ingabire, Chantal

Citation

Spielman, David J.; Mugabo, Serge; Rosenbach, Gracie; Ndikumana, Sosthene; Benimana, Gilberthe; and Ingabire, Chantal. 2025. Fertilizer policy reforms in the midst of crisis: Evidence from Rwanda. Food Policy 133(May 2025): 102823. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102823

Country/Region

Rwanda

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Fertilizers; Reforms; Subsidies; Data; Shock; Agricultural Development

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102823 Source record

Project

Policies, Institutions, and Markets

Record type

Journal Article

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Brief

Market monitoring in Rwanda’s rice sector: Insights from recent events

2025Warner, James; Mukamugema, Alice; Mutabazi, Egide; Benimana, Gilberthe Uwera
Details

Market monitoring in Rwanda’s rice sector: Insights from recent events

Summary • While domestic rice production has risen 16% over the past five years, district level growth rates are varied and suggest strong growth in some districts but reductions in others. Leveraging higher growth area’s successes could be used to further expand production in declining growth districts. • Microeconomic data suggests that smallholder rice farmers have slightly larger than average landholdings, grow at lower elevations, and sell about twice the percentage of crop value when compared to typical smallholders. • A declining Tanzanian rice premium over the last five years (2019-2024) suggests a greater substitutability between Rwandan and Tanzanian rice but specific reasons for this trend are unclear and warrant further research. Overall, a 50 percent premium has been reduced to currently about 20 percent. • Following a dramatic price increase in 2022, a subsequent large decrease in Tanzanian wholesale rice prices may have undermined government price setting in August 2024. Domestic producer rice price setting has been based on costs of production but appears to not consider other factors, such as the effects of imported prices of direct substitutes. A price analysis reveals that Tanzanian wholesale prices, valued in USD, fell about 37 percent from October 2023 to August 2024, while Rwandan retail rice prices were down only 14 percent. This relative price decrease could have effectively squeezed Rwandan processors when faced with government determined local producer prices that constricted potential profitability against rapidly declining Tanzanian prices. • Research presented below indicates that Tanzanian wholesale prices have large, immediate impacts on rice prices in Rwanda, but Rwandan prices have little to no effect on either imported or wholesale Tanzanian rice prices. Therefore, dramatic changes of Tanzania wholesale prices have large effects on both retail Tanzanian and Rwandan rice prices in Rwanda. This unidirectional effect highlights the importance of monitoring domestic and important international prices and studying prices which could have potentially helped policymakers adjust to market dynamics more effectively and better inform target interventions. We recommend developing an improved market monitoring and forecasting unit to better incorporate the food systems approach promoted in PSTA 5.

Year published

2025

Authors

Warner, James; Mukamugema, Alice; Mutabazi, Egide; Benimana, Gilberthe Uwera

Citation

Warner, James; Mukamugema, Alice; Mutabazi, Egide; and Benimana, Gilberthe. 2025. Market monitoring in Rwanda’s rice sector: Insights from recent events. Rwanda SSP Policy Note 17. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173279

Country/Region

Rwanda

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Rice; Agricultural Production; Data; Smallholders; Altitude; Prices; Markets

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Policies, Institutions, and Markets

Record type

Brief

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Rwandan maize market price dynamics: Structure, trends and policy implications

2024Warner, James; Benimana, Gilberthe Uwera; Mugabo, Serge; Niyonsingiza, Josue; Mukangabo, Emerence; Ingabire, Chantal
Details

Rwandan maize market price dynamics: Structure, trends and policy implications

The importance of maize for Rwanda cannot be overstated. Most smallholder farmers, along the spectrum of both land size and level of commercialization, engage in both production, own consumption, and sale of maize. Unlike most other crops, maize is commonly produced by all levels of commercialized and subsistence smallholder farmers. For example, recent research revealed that even though almost half of all maize produced is sold (44%), only an average of 23 percent is marketed at the household level (Warner et al. 2024). This indicates that while maize is widely sold by most smallholders, it is disproportionally sold by those with relatively larger farms. Therefore, maize is important for both own consumption as well as commercial sales and price movements are critical for understanding potential welfare impacts on both buyers and sellers. Research presented here outlines some important maize price relationships, including multi-year trends, interrelationships between Rwandan markets and seasonality. Overall, we find strong correlation between all markets suggesting a good degree of integration but persistent individual market prices above and below national averages as well as seasonality that generally conforms to maize’s main harvest period (Season A). This policy brief provides an overview of maize prices in Rwanda in order to enhance evidence-based policymaking for targeting recommendations aimed at more integrated and stable maize market prices throughout the country. For example, seasonal price changes suggest an annual average price fluctuation of approximately 30 percent and if targeted policies could reduce this seasonal price variation, smallholder welfare would likely be improved.

Year published

2024

Authors

Warner, James; Benimana, Gilberthe Uwera; Mugabo, Serge; Niyonsingiza, Josue; Mukangabo, Emerence; Ingabire, Chantal

Citation

Warner, James; Benimana, Gilberthe Uwera; Mugabo, Serge; Niyonsingiza, Josue; Mukangabo, Emerence; and Ingabire, Chantal. 2024. Rwandan maize market price dynamics: Structure, trends and policy implications. IFPRI Rwanda SSP Policy Note 15. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152398

Country/Region

Rwanda

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Consumption; Maize; Smallholders; Welfare

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Brief