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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Liangzhi You

Liangzhi You is a Senior Research Fellow and theme leader in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, based in Washington, DC. His research focuses on climate resilience, spatial data and analytics, agroecosystems, and agricultural science policy. Gridded crop production data of the world (SPAM) and the agricultural technology evaluation model (DREAM) are among his research contributions. 

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IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Foresight and Policy Modeling

James Thurlow

Director, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM)

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Bio

James Thurlow is Director of the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, where he oversees the institute’s research program on the major drivers of inclusive agricultural transformation and sustainable development. James’ own research uses economywide models to study the interactions between policies and agrifood systems; structural, climate, and demographic change; and livelihoods, poverty, and food security. He has worked with researchers and governments across Africa and Asia to strengthen foresight capabilities and enhance the coherence of development strategies.

Publications

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Publications

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Working Paper

Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi

2024Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James; Arndt, Channing; Thomas, Timothy S.
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Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi

This paper uses machine learning, simulation, and data mining methods to develop Systematic Risk Profiles of three developing economies: Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi. We focus on three exogenous shocks with implications for economic performance: world market prices, capital flows, and climate-driven sectoral productivity. In these and other developing countries, recent decades have been characterized by increased risks associated with all these factors, and there is a demand for instruments that can help to disentangle them. For each country, we utilize historical data to develop multi-variate distributions of shocks. We then sample from these distributions to obtain a series of shock vectors, which we label economic uncertainty scenarios. These scenarios are then entered into economywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation models for the three countries, which allow us to quantify the impact of increased uncertainty on major economic indicators. Finally, we utilize importance metrics from the random forest machine learning algorithm and relative importance metrics from multiple linear regression models to quantify the importance of country-specific risk factors for country performance. We find that Malawi and Rwanda are more vulnerable to sectoral productivity shocks, and Kenya is more exposed to external risks. These findings suggest that a country’s level of development and integration into the global economy are key driving forces defining their risk profiles. The methodology of Systematic Risk Profiling can be applied to many other countries, delineating country-specific risks and vulnerabilities.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James; Arndt, Channing; Thomas, Timothy S.

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James; Arndt, Channing; and Thomas, Timothy S. 2024. Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2286. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Kenya; Rwanda; Malawi

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Climate; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Machine Learning; Risk; Uncertainty

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Working Paper

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Book Chapter

The agrifood system: structure and contribution to development goals

2024Diao, Xinshen; Masias, Ian; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James; Boughton, Duncan
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The agrifood system: structure and contribution to development goals

As countries develop, agrifood systems (AFS) are expected to evolve beyond primary agriculture. The earliest stages of development are typically characterized by subsistence farming; as agricultural productivity rises, farmers begin to supply surplus production to markets, which creates employment opportunities for workers in the off-farm economy. Rising rural incomes generate demand for more diverse products; this leads to more nonfarm activities such as processing, packaging, transporting, and trading. In the early stages of transformation, the agriculture sector serves as an engine of rural—and even national—economic growth. Eventually, urbanization, the nonfarm economy, and nonagricultural incomes play more dominant roles in propelling AFS development, with urban and rural nonfarm consumers creating most of the market demand for agricultural outputs via value chains that connect rural areas to towns and cities. The exact nature of this transformation process varies across countries because of the diverse structure of their economies and the unique growth trajectories of their various agrifood and nonfood subsectors. A focus solely on primary agriculture without an understanding of its linkages to off-farm components of the economy masks the importance of AFS to the overall economy and its potential contribution as a driver of development going forward. In this chapter, we first measure the size, structure, and historical contribution of the AFS to economic growth and transformation in Myanmar. Second, we assess the potential for AFS growth led by productivity gains in different agricultural value chains to contribute to development outcomes in Myanmar using the Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model (IFPRI 2023b). We measure AFS using national accounts and employment statistics to either track or simulate growth and employment changes over time. We disaggregate AFS into several value chain groups, which allows the analysis to offer a unique and useful perspective on the drivers of AFS growth and transformation. Finally, we discuss the implications of the recent crises for the future of the AFS and propose both short- and long-term policy recommendations to help steer recovery.

Year published

2024

Authors

Diao, Xinshen; Masias, Ian; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James; Boughton, Duncan

Citation

Diao, Xinshen; Masias, Ian; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James; and Boughton, Duncan. 2024. The agrifood system: structure and contribution to development goals. In Myanmar’s agrifood system: Historical development, recent shocks, future opportunities, Duncan Boughton, Ben Belton, Isabel Lambrecht, and Bart Minten, eds. Chapter 2, Pp. 19-42. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/155145

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Agrifood Systems; Development; Economic Growth; Economic Shock; Governance

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Book Chapter

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Working Paper

Modeling crop-livestock interactions in semi-subsistence economies

2024Aragie, Emerta A.; Thurlow, James
Details

Modeling crop-livestock interactions in semi-subsistence economies

Climate and weather shocks pose significant threats to crop-livestock systems, leading to economic losses and humanitarian crises. Utilizing a modeling framework that innovatively integrates the crop and livestock systems, this study examines the interactions and dynamic adjustments within these systems following weather shocks, using Ethiopia as a case study. We also evaluate the effectiveness of various adaptation strategies in sustaining farm incomes, food security, and welfare. Results show unique effects on the crop and livestock sectors resulting from a joint shock on the two systems. While food crops experience a strong and immediate growth effect that fades quickly, the livestock sector faces the full impact of the shock a year later, with the effect persisting to some degree. We also find diverging economic and livestock system adjustment trajectories from the separate shocks to the crop and livestock systems. Further, the intervention options analyzed show contrasting impacts on various outcome indications, with only the resilient crop intervention causing sector-indifferent impacts. Our findings emphasize the importance of proactive measures to enhance the resilience of crop-livestock systems, with implications for policy and practice aimed at safeguarding food security and livelihoods in semi-subsistence economies.

Year published

2024

Authors

Aragie, Emerta A.; Thurlow, James

Citation

Aragie, Emerta; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Modeling crop-livestock interactions in semi-subsistence economies. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2278. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152379

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Crops; Economics; Livestock; Weather

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Working Paper

Events

How should governments respond to crises? Rapid response using RIAPA modeling system
IFPRI Program/Country Event

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August 13, 2024, 9:30 – 10:30 am

How should governments respond to crises? Rapid response using RIAPA modeling system

IFPRI’s foresight modeling systems cover food, land, and water systems across the world’s poorest and most food insecure geographies. Thanks to longstanding investments in these systems, IFPRI is uniquely positioned to provide rapid analysis of the impacts of global or domestic crises on agrifood systems, poverty, and food security at global, regional, national, or subnational […]

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists
IFPRI at External Event

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August 2 to 7, 2024

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists

The triennial International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE-2024), centred on the theme “Transformation Towards Sustainable Agri-Food Systems” is scheduled from August 2-7, 2024, in New Delhi, India. The conference offers a distinctive platform, providing a golden opportunity for the agricultural academic institutions and researchers to convene in person, exchange knowledge, and actively contribute to the […]

Tracking Global and National Agricultural Transformation
IFPRI Program/Country Event

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July 25, 2024, 9:30 – 10:30 am

Tracking Global and National Agricultural Transformation

Agricultural transformation involves the shift in production and workers from traditional agriculture to more productive activities, both within primary agriculture and across sectors within the broader agrifood system. This evolution enhances productivity and typically reduces poverty, raises incomes, and promotes healthier diets. However, not all countries are experiencing the same pace of agricultural transformation, and […]

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News

August 13, 2024 | In the News

Sudan’s catastrophe: farmers could offer quick post-war recovery, if peace is found

Despite the stark reality, there is a potential path forward for Sudan, believe IFPRI experts.

February 03, 2021 | In the News

Integrated customer experience strategies essential to enterprise growth (Nigeria Communications Week)

Nigeria Communications Week published an article stating that a report from Nigeria’s Statistics Bureau showed that the economy contracted by 6.1% year on year by Quarter 2 of 2020 alone. This decline is Nigeria’s steepest recorded in the past decade. In addition, a report from IFPRI, Coronavirus: Lockdowns across Africa creating major economic loss showed that during the lockdown […]

June 18, 2020 | In the News

COVID-19: For pregnant women, it’s a tougher battle (Daily Trust) 

Daily Trust (Nigeria) reported on COVID-19, nutrition, and pregnancy. Poor diet is a common experience of low-income households during the lockdown. IFPRI said poor households in low and middle-Income Countries, like Nigeria, would have dramatic income effects due to “widespread unemployment resulting from COVID-19 mitigation measures” (see blogpost, COVID-19 lockdowns are imposing substantial economic costs on countries in Africa by James Thurlow).  Also reflecting both […]

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