IFPRI CGIAR
Subscribe

Back

Who we are

With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Kalyani Raghunathan

Kalyani Raghunathan is Research Fellow in the Poverty, Gender, and Inclusion Unit, based in New Delhi, India. Her research lies at the intersection of agriculture, gender, social protection, and public health and nutrition, with a specific focus on South Asia and Africa. 

Where we work

Back

Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

IFPRI Regional Programs

IFPRI Country Programs

Research by country and region

Subscribe

experts

Manuel Hernandez

Senior Research Fellow

Follow

Manuel

at:

ORCiD

Bio

Manuel Hernandez is a Senior Research Fellow in the Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit of IFPRI. He has more than 20 years of experience in diverse projects in Latin America, Africa, and Asia on development issues related to agricultural and labor markets, food security and nutrition, industrial organization and regulation, price analysis, and the informal economy. His current line of research focuses on impact evaluation linked to rural development and food security projects, migration, functioning of oligopoly markets and value chains, and price volatility. He received his PhD in Economics from Texas A&M University and also holds a bachelor’s degree in Economics from the Universidad del Pacifico, Lima.

Languages spoken: English, Spanish

Publications

Personal Website

Google Scholar Profile

RePEc Author Profile

CV

Publications

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Internal Migration Propensity Index (i-MPI): IPSR Innovation Profile. First edition, March 2024

2024Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A. ; Almanzar, Manuel
Details

Internal Migration Propensity Index (i-MPI): IPSR Innovation Profile. First edition, March 2024

The internal Migration Propensity Index (i-MPI) is a tool that anticipates domestic migration at the household level based on a concise set of 10 simple, non-invasive questions. The tool was calibrated in 2023 for Guatemala and Honduras, following the same methodology used for the MPI to predict external (crossborder) migration in both countries and adapting it to challenges specific to internal migration. The i-MPI indices are calibrated using statistically-robust techniques to select questions that are easy to collect and that combined best predict the probability that at least one individual from a household permanently migrates to a different community within the same country over the next 12-24 months. The focus is on permanent internal migration, as opposed to temporary migration (mainly explained by regular labor force mobility during months of high labor demand from agro-industrial plantations). Such a tool can be used for both monitoring and targeting purposes to improve livelihoods at the local level and avoid the need to migrate.

Year published

2024

Authors

Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A. ; Almanzar, Manuel

Citation

Ceballos, F., Hernandez, M. and Almanzar, M. 2024. Internal Migration Propensity Index (i-MPI): IPSR Innovation Profile. First edition, March 2024. Montpellier: CGIAR System Organization.

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-NC-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Fragility, Conflict, and Migration

Record type

Brief

Resource thumbnail

Working Paper

Corporate taxes and labor market informality evidence from China

2024Deng, Guoying; Du, Pengcheng; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Xu, Shu
Details

Corporate taxes and labor market informality evidence from China

This paper examines the association between corporate income taxes and labor market informality. We present a theoretical framework showing that a higher tax enforcement can push firms to pass on the burden to workers by reducing their social security compliance as well as downsizing and lowering wages. The model propositions are tested using a regression discontinuity design that exploits a national corporate tax reform in China. We find that for every one percentage point increase in the effective tax rate, firms reduce their probability of making basic social security contributions by 0.8%, their compliance rate by 1.4 percentage points, and the probability of making supplementary contributions by 0.6%, while the number of workers and wages fall by 4.4% and 0.7%, respectively. We observe that the effects are more salient among firms privately owned and controlled, large businesses, and in locations where social security contributions are directly collected by the social security administration. The findings suggest that workers not only bear part of the higher corporate taxes faced by firms, but an increase in firms’ tax burden contributes to social security evasion and informality in labor markets. JEL Codes: H32, H55, J30, J23, H25

Year published

2024

Authors

Deng, Guoying; Du, Pengcheng; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Xu, Shu

Citation

Deng, Guoying; Du, Pengcheng; Hernandez, Manuel A.; and Xu, Shu. 2024. Corporate taxes and labor market informality evidence from China. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2244. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/140480

Country/Region

China

Keywords

Asia; Eastern Asia; Taxes; Labour Market; Social Security; Remuneration

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Resource thumbnail

Journal Article

COVID-19 and extreme weather: Impacts on food security and migration attitudes in the rural area of Guatemala

2024Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Paz, Cynthia
Details

COVID-19 and extreme weather: Impacts on food security and migration attitudes in the rural area of Guatemala

This paper examines the continuing effects of COVID-19 and exposure to weather extremes on income, dietary, and migration outcomes in the rural area of Guatemala. We rely on a comprehensive longitudinal survey of 1,612 smallholder farmers collected over three survey rounds in 2019, 2020, and 2021. We find improvements in incomes, food security, dietary diversity, and animal source foods (ASF) consumption in 2021 relative to 2020, but with levels still below pre-pandemic ones in 2019. We also find a substantial increase in the intention to emigrate that was not observed in the onset of the pandemic. In terms of the channels mediating the variations in dietary diversity and migration intentions, income shocks seem to have played a role, in contrast to direct exposure to the virus, local mobility restrictions, and food market disruptions. Importantly, households exposed to ETA and IOTA tropical storms, in addition to COVID-19, were considerably more prone to exhibit larger increases in the prevalence of moderate or severe food insecure episodes and larger decreases in their diet quality and ASF consumption. The study provides novel evidence on vulnerable households’ wellbeing in the aftermath of a global crisis, including the effects of compound shocks.

Year published

2024

Authors

Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Paz, Cynthia

Citation

Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; and Paz, Cynthia. 2024. COVID-19 and extreme weather: Impacts on food security and migration attitudes in the rural area of Guatemala. World Development 173(2024): 106422. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106422

Country/Region

Guatemala

Keywords

Latin America; Covid-19; Food Security; Extreme Weather Events; Households; Income; Diet; Migration; Rural Areas; Shock

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106422 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

Blogs

Forced migration: Policy responses to improve outcomes
IFPRI Blog
 | 
June 20, 2023

Forced migration: Policy responses to improve outcomes

By Manuel Hernandez

Exploring the significance of World Refugee Day and the complex dynamics of global migration.

No end in sight yet for the global food price crisis
IFPRI Blog
 | 
September 27, 2022

No end in sight yet for the global food price crisis

By Joseph Glauber, Manuel Hernández, David Laborde, Will Martin, Brendan Rice, and Rob Vos

Continuing fallout from the the Russia-Ukraine war.

COVID-19 and rising global food prices: What’s really happening?
IFPRI Blog
 | 
February 11, 2022

COVID-19 and rising global food prices: What’s really happening?

By Rob Vos, Joseph Glauber, Manuel Hernández, and David Laborde

Inflation poses particular risks for the poor and vulnerable.

View all Blogs

Events

Informe de políticas alimentarias mundiales 2023: Repensar las respuestas a las crisis alimentarias
Series/Special Event

 | 

June 21, 2023, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Informe de políticas alimentarias mundiales 2023: Repensar las respuestas a las crisis alimentarias

Virtual Event: June 21, 2023 – 9:30 AM to 11:00 AM EDT. We invite you to join us at the virtual launch event for LAC, where speakers will shed light on the significant findings of the 2023 report from a regional perspective.

2023 Global Food Policy Report: Rethinking Food Crisis Responses
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

April 13, 2023, 9:00 – 10:30 am

2023 Global Food Policy Report: Rethinking Food Crisis Responses

Hybrid Event: April 11, 2023 – 9:00 AM- 10:30 AM EDT. Join us for the launch of IFPRI’s 2023 Global Food Policy Report, which explores evidence-based policy and governance solutions that can provide better early warning and rapid response and increase resilience of food systems.

2022 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

July 31 to August 2, 2022

2022 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting

Virtual Event: July 31, 2022 – 10:00 AM to August 2, 2022 – 6:15 PM PDT. IFPRI is participating in the 2022 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting.

View all Events

Research

Projects

Topics/Countries

Awards

  • 2014 Wageningen Social Sciences Publication Award for “Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets,” coauthored with Cornelis Gardebroek.
  • Graduate Teaching Excellence Award, Department of Economics, Texas A&M University, 2008.
  • Maurice Fellowship, Excellence in Graduate Studies, Texas A&M University, Summer 2008.
  • Fulbright Scholarship for graduate studies 2004 – 2006, Lima, Peru