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Who we are

With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Liangzhi You

Liangzhi You is a Senior Research Fellow and theme leader in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, based in Washington, DC. His research focuses on climate resilience, spatial data and analytics, agroecosystems, and agricultural science policy. Gridded crop production data of the world (SPAM) and the agricultural technology evaluation model (DREAM) are among his research contributions. 

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Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Manuel Hernandez

Senior Research Fellow

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Bio

Manuel Hernandez is a Senior Research Fellow in the Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit of IFPRI. He has more than 20 years of experience in diverse projects in Latin America, Africa, and Asia on development issues related to agricultural and labor markets, food security and nutrition, industrial organization and regulation, price analysis, and the informal economy. His current line of research focuses on impact evaluation linked to rural development and food security projects, migration, functioning of oligopoly markets and value chains, and price volatility. He received his PhD in Economics from Texas A&M University and also holds a bachelor’s degree in Economics from the Universidad del Pacifico, Lima.

Languages spoken: English, Spanish

Publications

Personal Website

Google Scholar Profile

RePEc Author Profile

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Publications

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Working Paper

Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America

2024Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia; Brown, Melissa; Lopez, Elena Mora
Details

Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America

Following recent major global shocks that resulted in significant spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, this study analyses the degree of price and volatility transmission from international to selected domestic food and fertilizer markets across seven countries in Central America. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach using monthly data over the period 2000–2022. We find varying results by country and commodities and an overall low to moderate degree of price transmission in levels, but a stronger degree of volatility transmission. We similarly observe some changes in the degree of co-movement between international and domestic price variations over time—depending on the market and commodity under consideration—including after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as after the 2007-2008 food price crisis. Back-of-the-envelope calculations of the effect of an increase in international prices of different food and fertilizers mimicking the peak inflation observed in 2022 reveal small yet non-negligible effects on consumer and producer welfare in Central American countries, which however do not match the magnitude of the food security crisis observed in the region.

Year published

2024

Authors

Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia; Brown, Melissa; Lopez, Elena Mora

Citation

Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia; Brown, Melissa; and Lopez, Elena Mora. 2024. Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2299. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute

Keywords

Central America; Shock; Food Prices; Fertilizers; Markets; Price Volatility; Inflation; Food Security; Welfare

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Journal Article

Can survey design reduce anchoring bias in recall data? Evidence from smallholder farmers in Malawi

2024Godlonton, Susan; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Paz, Cynthia
Details

Can survey design reduce anchoring bias in recall data? Evidence from smallholder farmers in Malawi

Recall biases in retrospective self-reported survey data have important implications for empirical research. We leverage the survey design literature and test three strategies to attenuate mental anchoring in retrospective data collection: question ordering, retrieval cues and aggregate (community) anchoring. We focus on maize production and happiness reports among smallholder farmers in Malawi. Asking for retrospective before concurrent data on average reduces recall bias (i.e. the deviation of the recalled versus the concurrent outcome reported in the previous period) by 34 per cent for maize production, a meaningful improvement with no increase in data collection costs. Retrieval cues are less successful and community anchors can exacerbate the bias. None of the strategies help to ease the recall bias for happiness reports.

Year published

2024

Authors

Godlonton, Susan; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Paz, Cynthia

Citation

Godlonton, Susan; Hernandez, Manuel A.; and Paz, Cynthia. European Review of Agricultural Economics. Article in Press. First published online on November 6, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbae026

Country/Region

Malawi

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Survey Design; Data Collection; Maize; Smallholders; Agriculture

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbae026 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

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Brief

Internal Migration Propensity Index (i-MPI): IPSR Innovation Profile. First edition, March 2024

2024Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Almanzar, Manuel
Details

Internal Migration Propensity Index (i-MPI): IPSR Innovation Profile. First edition, March 2024

The internal Migration Propensity Index (i-MPI) is a tool that anticipates domestic migration at the household level based on a concise set of 10 simple, non-invasive questions. The tool was calibrated in 2023 for Guatemala and Honduras, following the same methodology used for the MPI to predict external (crossborder) migration in both countries and adapting it to challenges specific to internal migration. The i-MPI indices are calibrated using statistically-robust techniques to select questions that are easy to collect and that combined best predict the probability that at least one individual from a household permanently migrates to a different community within the same country over the next 12-24 months. The focus is on permanent internal migration, as opposed to temporary migration (mainly explained by regular labor force mobility during months of high labor demand from agro-industrial plantations). Such a tool can be used for both monitoring and targeting purposes to improve livelihoods at the local level and avoid the need to migrate.

Year published

2024

Authors

Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Almanzar, Manuel

Citation

Ceballos, F., Hernandez, M. and Almanzar, M. 2024. Internal Migration Propensity Index (i-MPI): IPSR Innovation Profile. First edition, March 2024. Montpellier: CGIAR System Organization.

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-NC-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Fragility, Conflict, and Migration

Record type

Brief

Blogs

Forced migration: Policy responses to improve outcomes
IFPRI Blog
 | 
June 20, 2023

Forced migration: Policy responses to improve outcomes

By Manuel Hernandez

Exploring the significance of World Refugee Day and the complex dynamics of global migration.

No end in sight yet for the global food price crisis
IFPRI Blog
 | 
September 27, 2022

No end in sight yet for the global food price crisis

By Joseph Glauber, Manuel Hernández, David Laborde, Will Martin, Brendan Rice, and Rob Vos

Continuing fallout from the the Russia-Ukraine war.

COVID-19 and rising global food prices: What’s really happening?
IFPRI Blog
 | 
February 11, 2022

COVID-19 and rising global food prices: What’s really happening?

By Rob Vos, Joseph Glauber, Manuel Hernández, and David Laborde

Inflation poses particular risks for the poor and vulnerable.

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Events

Informe de políticas alimentarias mundiales 2023: Repensar las respuestas a las crisis alimentarias
Series/Special Event

 | 

June 21, 2023, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Informe de políticas alimentarias mundiales 2023: Repensar las respuestas a las crisis alimentarias

Virtual Event: June 21, 2023 – 9:30 AM to 11:00 AM EDT. We invite you to join us at the virtual launch event for LAC, where speakers will shed light on the significant findings of the 2023 report from a regional perspective.

2023 Global Food Policy Report: Rethinking Food Crisis Responses
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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April 13, 2023, 9:00 – 10:30 am

2023 Global Food Policy Report: Rethinking Food Crisis Responses

Hybrid Event: April 11, 2023 – 9:00 AM- 10:30 AM EDT. Join us for the launch of IFPRI’s 2023 Global Food Policy Report, which explores evidence-based policy and governance solutions that can provide better early warning and rapid response and increase resilience of food systems.

2022 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

July 31 to August 2, 2022

2022 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting

Virtual Event: July 31, 2022 – 10:00 AM to August 2, 2022 – 6:15 PM PDT. IFPRI is participating in the 2022 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting.

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Research

Projects

Topics/Countries

Awards

  • 2014 Wageningen Social Sciences Publication Award for “Do energy prices stimulate food price volatility? Examining volatility transmission between US oil, ethanol and corn markets,” coauthored with Cornelis Gardebroek.
  • Graduate Teaching Excellence Award, Department of Economics, Texas A&M University, 2008.
  • Maurice Fellowship, Excellence in Graduate Studies, Texas A&M University, Summer 2008.
  • Fulbright Scholarship for graduate studies 2004 – 2006, Lima, Peru