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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Liangzhi You

Liangzhi You is a Senior Research Fellow and theme leader in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, based in Washington, DC. His research focuses on climate resilience, spatial data and analytics, agroecosystems, and agricultural science policy. Gridded crop production data of the world (SPAM) and the agricultural technology evaluation model (DREAM) are among his research contributions. 

Where we work

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Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Maria Lucia Berrospi

Research Analyst

Bio

Maria Lucia Berrospi is a Research Analyst in the Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit. Before joining IFPRI, she worked in different research institutes in Peru, including the Research Center of the Universidad del Pacífico (CIUP) and the Group of Analysis for Development (GRADE). Her research interests include applied econometrics, impact evaluation, and social economic development. She holds a bachelor’s degree in Economics from the Universidad del Pacífico in Lima, Peru.

Markets, Trade, and Institutions

Latin America and the Caribbean

Publications

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Working Paper

Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America

2024Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia; Brown, Melissa; Lopez, Elena Mora
Details

Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America

Following recent major global shocks that resulted in significant spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, this study analyses the degree of price and volatility transmission from international to selected domestic food and fertilizer markets across seven countries in Central America. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach using monthly data over the period 2000–2022. We find varying results by country and commodities and an overall low to moderate degree of price transmission in levels, but a stronger degree of volatility transmission. We similarly observe some changes in the degree of co-movement between international and domestic price variations over time—depending on the market and commodity under consideration—including after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as after the 2007-2008 food price crisis. Back-of-the-envelope calculations of the effect of an increase in international prices of different food and fertilizers mimicking the peak inflation observed in 2022 reveal small yet non-negligible effects on consumer and producer welfare in Central American countries, which however do not match the magnitude of the food security crisis observed in the region.

Year published

2024

Authors

Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia; Brown, Melissa; Lopez, Elena Mora

Citation

Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia; Brown, Melissa; and Lopez, Elena Mora. 2024. Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2299. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute

Keywords

Central America; Shock; Food Prices; Fertilizers; Markets; Price Volatility; Inflation; Food Security; Welfare

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

COVID-19 and livelihoods in rural Guatemala: Lessons from a long term assessment and the path to recovery

2023Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Paz, Cynthia
Details

COVID-19 and livelihoods in rural Guatemala: Lessons from a long term assessment and the path to recovery

The COVID-19 pandemic has had profound effects on livelihoods and food security across rural populations worldwide. This study offers a long-term assessment of the impacts of the pandemic and the path to recovery among smallholder agricultural households in the Western Highlands of Guatemala. We rely on a unique longitudinal survey of 1,262 households collected over four survey rounds between 2019 and 2022. The results show substantial recoveries in incomes, food security, and dietary diversity in the region by mid-2022 compared to 2020, but at levels still worse than pre pandemic ones. There is also a sustained increase in the intention to emigrate. The households that were initially more affected in terms of food security and nutrition but recovered faster include those located in one (San Marcos) of the three departments and families living above the poverty line, while smallholders affected by the ETA and IOTA tropical storms, non-coffee producers, and indigenous populations have taken longer to recover. In addition, we provide quantitative estimates for a subsample of households interviewed during a fifth survey round at the end of 2022, showing an average decline of about 16 percent in total household income three years after the start of the pandemic, mainly driven by a decrease in agricultural income, combined with a 26 percent increase in expenditures and an important surge in indebtedness. Overall, the study offers valuable lessons regarding the recovery of vulnerable households following a major global crisis and in a context of additional shocks, remarking the importance of continue monitoring the situation of vulnerable households, especially those exposed to recurrent (weather) shocks that also have a more exhausted portfolio of coping mechanisms & express a higher willingness to emigrate.

Year published

2023

Authors

Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Paz, Cynthia

Citation

Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; and Paz, Cynthia. 2023. COVID-19 and livelihoods in rural Guatemala: Lessons from a long term assessment and the path to recovery. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2219. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.137039

Country/Region

Guatemala

Keywords

Latin America; Central America; Northern America; Expenditure; Rural Population; Long-term Experiments; Coronavirus; Covid-19; Households; Recuperation; Agriculture; Coronavirinae; Food Security; Migration; Coronavirus Disease; Shocks; Debt; Dietary Diversity

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.137039 Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

Factores que impulsan la migración de la sierra a la selva en el Perú – Nota conceptual del estudio

2023Hernandez, Manuel A.; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Juarez, Henry; Pradel, Willy; Navarrete, Corina
Details

Factores que impulsan la migración de la sierra a la selva en el Perú – Nota conceptual del estudio

En el Perú, se estima que hay aproximadamente 6 millones de personas que migraron internamente en algún momento de su vida. Esto equivale al 20.3% de la población, siendo su mayoría originaria de la serranía peruana. Aunque Lima es el principal polo de atracción, en los últimos años, se ha observado un aumento en la migración hacia las regiones de Madre de Dios, Tacna, Arequipa y Moquegua. Entre el 2002 y 2007, Madre de Dios fue el departamento que tuvo la mayor cantidad de migrantes con un saldo migratorio neto de 14,8%. Comprender los patrones y las decisiones migratorias es complejo, ya que se trata de un fenómeno multidimensional determinado por un amplio conjunto de factores, incluidos factores de empuje, que alientan a las personas a mudarse de su ubicación actual, y factores de atracción, que atraen a las personas a mudarse a una nueva ubicación. Estos factores generalmente se agrupan en cuatro categorías: factores económicos (por ejemplo, oportunidades laborales, salarios); factores ambientales (por ejemplo, disponibilidad de alimentos, clima); factores sociales (por ejemplo, disponibilidad de servicios, calidad de vida); y factores culturales/de seguridad (por ejemplo, estabilidad política, delincuencia).

Year published

2023

Authors

Hernandez, Manuel A.; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Juarez, Henry; Pradel, Willy; Navarrete, Corina

Citation

Hernandez, Manuel A.; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Juarez, Henry; Pradel, Willy; and Navarrete, Corina. 2023. Factores que impulsan la migración de la sierra a la selva en el Perú – Nota conceptual del estudio. Technical Note December 2023. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.137013

Country/Region

Peru

Keywords

Latin America; South America; Economic Aspects; Political Aspects; Livelihoods; Food Security; Migration; Crime

Language

Spanish

Access/Licence

Open Access

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.137013 Source record

Project

AgriLAC Resiliente

Record type

Working Paper

Events

From Research to Impact: Towards just and Resilient Agri-food Systems
IFPRI Program/Country Event

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October 9 to 12, 2023

From Research to Impact: Towards just and Resilient Agri-food Systems

Conference: October 09, 2023 – 9:00 AM to October 12, 2023 – 6:00 PM IST. IFPRI is participating in the 2023 annual CGIAR gender research conference will take place in New Delhi, India.