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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Manuel Hernandez

Manuel Hernandez is a Senior Research Fellow in the Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit of IFPRI. He has more than 20 years of experience in diverse projects in Latin America, Africa, and Asia on development issues related to agricultural and labor markets, food security and nutrition, industrial organization and regulation, price analysis, and the informal economy. His current research focuses on impact evaluation linked to rural development and food security projects, migration, functioning of oligopoly markets and value chains, and price volatility.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Maria Lucia Berrospi

Research Analyst

Bio

Maria Lucia Berrospi is a Research Analyst in the Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit. Before joining IFPRI, she worked in different research institutes in Peru, including the Research Center of the Universidad del Pacífico (CIUP) and the Group of Analysis for Development (GRADE). Her research interests include applied econometrics, impact evaluation, and social economic development. She holds a bachelor’s degree in Economics from the Universidad del Pacífico in Lima, Peru.

Markets, Trade, and Institutions

Latin America and the Caribbean

Publications

Resource thumbnail

Working Paper

De las alturas a la Amazonía: Principales factores que Impulsan la migración interna en el Perú

2024Hernandez, Manuel A.; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Juarez, Henry; Pradel, Willy; Navarrete, Corina
Details

De las alturas a la Amazonía: Principales factores que Impulsan la migración interna en el Perú

La migración o desplazamiento geográfico de individuos es un patrón recurrente a lo largo de la historia, pero en las últimas décadas ha alcanzado niveles sin precedentes. Se estima que una de cada siete personas en el mundo es migrante (United Nations Population Division, 2013). Este fenómeno no solo abarca movimientos internacionales, sino principalmente desplazamientos internos, muchos de los cuales son forzados. En 2013, aproximadamente 763 millones de personas habían migrado dentro de sus propios países, lo que equivalía al 12% de la población mundial; este fenómeno es particularmente relevante en América Latina y el Caribe, con tasas de migración interna hasta 50% más altas que el promedio global (United Nations Population Division, 2013). Asimismo, hacia finales de 2022, más de 71.2 millones de personas habían sido desplazadas internamente debido a conflictos, violencia y desastres naturales, estableciendo un récord histórico y representando un aumento del 60% en comparación con 2021 (McAuliffe & Oucho, 2024).

Year published

2024

Authors

Hernandez, Manuel A.; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Juarez, Henry; Pradel, Willy; Navarrete, Corina

Citation

Hernandez, Manuel A.; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Juarez, Henry; Pradel, Willy; and Navarrete, Corina. 2024. De las alturas a la Amazonía: Principales factores que Impulsan la migración interna en el Perú. AgriLAC Resiliente Nota Tecnica. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168609

Country/Region

Peru

Keywords

South America; Amazonia; Migration

Language

Spanish

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

AgriLAC Resiliente

Record type

Working Paper

Resource thumbnail

Working Paper

Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America

2024Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia; Brown, Melissa; Lopez, Elena Mora
Details

Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America

Following recent major global shocks that resulted in significant spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, this study analyses the degree of price and volatility transmission from international to selected domestic food and fertilizer markets across seven countries in Central America. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach using monthly data over the period 2000–2022. We find varying results by country and commodities and an overall low to moderate degree of price transmission in levels, but a stronger degree of volatility transmission. We similarly observe some changes in the degree of co-movement between international and domestic price variations over time—depending on the market and commodity under consideration—including after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as after the 2007-2008 food price crisis. Back-of-the-envelope calculations of the effect of an increase in international prices of different food and fertilizers mimicking the peak inflation observed in 2022 reveal small yet non-negligible effects on consumer and producer welfare in Central American countries, which however do not match the magnitude of the food security crisis observed in the region.

Year published

2024

Authors

Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia; Brown, Melissa; Lopez, Elena Mora

Citation

Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia; Brown, Melissa; and Lopez, Elena Mora. 2024. Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America. IFPRI Discussion Paper2299. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/162957

Keywords

Central America; Shock; Food Prices; Fertilizers; Markets; Price Volatility; Inflation; Food Security; Welfare

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Resource thumbnail

Report

International prices and food security: An analysis of food and fertilizer price transmission in Central America

2024Perego, Viviana M.E.; Brown, Melissa; Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel; Berrospi, María Lucía; Pereira, Luis Días; Salcedo, Salomon; Benjamin, McDonald P.; Flores, Luis; Mora, Elena
Details

International prices and food security: An analysis of food and fertilizer price transmission in Central America

This report explores the dynamics between domestic food security in Central America and global price inflation. The report analyzes the extent to which international food and fertilizer prices have been passed through to Central American countries, their impacts in terms of household expenditure and income, and the effectiveness of government’s domestic policy responses in the face of high food prices. The report also explores the historic evolution of agriculture and food public policies in Central America during previous instances of international food price hikes, so as to derive lessons for Central American policymakers on the adequacy of the policy ecosystem to prevent the emergence of, and respond to, food security crises.

Year published

2024

Authors

Perego, Viviana M.E.; Brown, Melissa; Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel; Berrospi, María Lucía; Pereira, Luis Días; Salcedo, Salomon; Benjamin, McDonald P.; Flores, Luis; Mora, Elena

Citation

Perego, Viviana M.E.; Brown, Melissa; Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel; Berrospi, María Lucía; Pereira, Luis Días; et al. 2024. International prices and food security: An analysis of food and fertilizer price transmission in Central America. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/41665

Keywords

Central America; Prices; Food Security; Fertilizers; Household Expenditure; Agriculture; Food Policies

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-NC-3.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Report

Events

From Research to Impact: Towards just and Resilient Agri-food Systems
IFPRI Program/Country Event

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October 9 to 12, 2023

From Research to Impact: Towards just and Resilient Agri-food Systems

Conference: October 09, 2023 – 9:00 AM to October 12, 2023 – 6:00 PM IST. IFPRI is participating in the 2023 annual CGIAR gender research conference will take place in New Delhi, India.