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Who we are

With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Liangzhi You

Liangzhi You is a Senior Research Fellow and theme leader in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, based in Washington, DC. His research focuses on climate resilience, spatial data and analytics, agroecosystems, and agricultural science policy. Gridded crop production data of the world (SPAM) and the agricultural technology evaluation model (DREAM) are among his research contributions. 

Where we work

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Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Development Strategies and Governance

Mariam Raouf

Senior Research Associate

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Bio

Mariam Raouf is a Senior Research Associate in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit. Her research interests include macroeconomics, economic growth, national accounts, and international finance. Her doctoral dissertation focused on the impact of financial openness on total factor productivity growth in selected countries in the MENA region.  Mariam worked previously in the Institute of National Planning and the Ministry of Planning, Monitoring and Administrative Reform, Egypt. She holds bachelor’s and master’s degrees as well as her PhD in Economics from the Faculty of Economics and Political Science (FEPS), Cairo University.

Publications

Publications

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Working Paper

Determinants of household water and energy access and their impacts on food security and health outcomes in Sudan

2024Kirui, Oliver K.; Ahmed, Mosab; Raouf, Mariam; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid
Details

Determinants of household water and energy access and their impacts on food security and health outcomes in Sudan

This study investigates the determinants of access to safe water and reliable energy for households in Sudan using nationally representative data from a recent labor market survey. The results show that urbanization, education, and wealth significantly enhance the access households have to these essential services, while rural areas and less developed regions, particularly in the Darfur and Kordofan regions, face substantial challenges. Access to reliable energy correlates with better food security and health outcomes within households, and improved access to safe water significantly enhances the health of household members. Policy recommendations supported by these research results include targeted rural infrastructure investments, educational improvements, and regional interventions to address disparities in household access to safe water and reliable energy across Sudan.

Year published

2024

Authors

Kirui, Oliver K.; Ahmed, Mosab; Raouf, Mariam; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid

Citation

Kirui, Oliver K.; Ahmed, Mosab; Raouf, Mariam; Abushama, Hala; and Siddig, Khalid. 2024. Determinants of household water and energy access and their impacts on food security and health outcomes in Sudan. SSSP Working Paper 22. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168162

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Capacity Development; Households; Water; Energy; Food Security; Health; Socioeconomic Environment; Rural Urban Relations

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

NEXUS Gains

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

Impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in Sudan: Agricultural bounce-back, infrastructural investment, and social protection

2024Siddig, Khalid; Thurlow, James; Ahmed, Mosab; Randriamamonjy, Josée; Raouf, Mariam
Details

Impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in Sudan: Agricultural bounce-back, infrastructural investment, and social protection

In response to the 2023 conflict in Sudan and its extensive socio-economic repercussions, this study investigates the resultant economic, poverty, and undernourishment impacts, using an economywide model for in-depth analysis at national and household levels. The study also seeks to identify effective recovery pathways that can mitigate the adverse impacts of the conflict, with a particular focus on the role of the agricultural sector. Key findings reveal significant economic contractions across all scenarios, with the GDP experiencing a reduction of up to 12% and 18% following estimates by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 2023. These estimates are included in an economywide framework, linked to a microsimulation module as major war scenarios, namely, Moderate decline & slow recovery and Sharp decline & rapid recovery, respectively. Poverty rates are projected to increase by 8 and 11.6 percentage points, affecting an additional 2.7 and 3.9 million people in the two scenarios, respectively. Undernourishment is also expected to rise significantly, with an increase of 3.9 and 6.0 percentage points, adding approximately 1.3 and 2.0 million people to those affected in the two scenarios, respectively. The analysis proposes recovery strategies that emphasize agricultural productivity, infrastructure investment, and social protection measures. By simulating enhanced agricultural productivity scenarios, the study suggests that poverty could decrease notably, with potential reductions in the poor population by as much as 1.9 million by 2028. This study underscores the urgency of coordinated policy efforts and international support to mitigate the adverse impacts of the conflict, providing a strategic roadmap for recovery initiatives aimed at sustainable development and stability in Sudan.

Year published

2024

Authors

Siddig, Khalid; Thurlow, James; Ahmed, Mosab; Randriamamonjy, Josée; Raouf, Mariam

Citation

Siddig, Khalid; Thurlow, James; Ahmed, Mosab; Randriamamonjy, Josée; and Raouf, Mariam. 2024. Impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in Sudan: Agricultural bounce-back, infrastructural investment, and social protection. Sudan Strategy Support Program Working Paper 21. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Northern Africa; Conflicts; Economic Impact; Poverty; Nutrition; Agricultural Sector; Social Protection; Infrastructure

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

What are the economic and poverty implications for Sudan if the conflict continues through 2024?

2024Ahmed, Mosab; Raouf, Mariam; Siddig, Khalid
Details

What are the economic and poverty implications for Sudan if the conflict continues through 2024?

The conflict in Sudan, which started in April 2023, has led to severe economic repercussions, sharply reducing the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and household incomes and increasing the prevalence of poverty. Using an updated economywide database for Sudan, we ran an analysis of the likely economic impact of a continuation of the conflict through to the end of 2024 using two scenarios of extreme and moderate reductions in overall GDP. These reductions are triggered mainly by the ongoing conflict, which is causing additional cuts in the operations of business services and continuing disruptions to wholesale and retail services and manufacturing. The results of the analysis show a 47 percent decline in Sudan’s GDP under the extreme reduction scenario and a 13 percent decline under the moderate scenario relative to 2022 before the conflict began. Under the extreme scenario, the agrifood system GDP falls by 26 percent and employment by 50 percent, with non-farm jobs being more adversely affected. Household incomes decline significantly across all quintiles and in both rural and urban areas, with urban and richer households facing slightly higher reductions. Less-educated labor categories are severely affected, while tertiary-educated labor shows relative resilience. Poverty rates have surged, particularly in rural areas and among women, with the national poverty rate estimated to have increased by 21 percentage points under the extreme reduction scenario. To mitigate the widespread adverse impacts of the conflict on the Sudanese economy and foster long-term resilience, policies and interventions should prioritize the restoration of economic productivity, provide support for the agrifood system and employment recovery strategies, and ensure that social protection measures are accessible to all households facing increased deprivation.

Year published

2024

Authors

Ahmed, Mosab; Raouf, Mariam; Siddig, Khalid

Citation

Ahmed, Mosab; Raouf, Mariam; and Siddig, Khalid. 2024. What are the economic and poverty implications for Sudan if the conflict continues through 2024? SSSP Working Paper 20. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168102

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Northern Africa; Conflicts; Economic Impact; Employment; Income; Poverty; Agrifood Systems; Resilience; Social Protection

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Working Paper

Blogs

Sudan’s catastrophe: Farmers could offer quick postwar recovery, if peace is found
IFPRI Blog
 | 
August 16, 2024

Sudan’s catastrophe: Farmers could offer quick postwar recovery, if peace is found

By Khalid Siddig, James Thurlow, Josee Randriamamonjy, Mariam Raouf, and Mosab O. M. Ahmed

Charting economic paths forward.

Model: Sudan’s ongoing conflict could reduce economic output by half and push 1.8 million into poverty
IFPRI Blog
 | 
November 23, 2023

Model: Sudan’s ongoing conflict could reduce economic output by half and push 1.8 million into poverty

By Khalid Siddig, Mariam Raouf, and Mosab Ahmed

Impacts of an unfolding humanitarian emergency.

Economic impact of COVID-19 on tourism and remittances: Insights from Egypt
IFPRI Blog
 | 
April 01, 2020

Economic impact of COVID-19 on tourism and remittances: Insights from Egypt

By Clemens Breisinger, Abla Abdel Latif, Mariam Raouf, and Manfred Wiebelt

Modeling results show monthly declines in GDP, with the poor hit hardest.

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Events

The Ukraine crisis: Unraveling the impacts and policy responses in low- and middle- income countries
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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August 31, 2022, 9:30 – 11:00 am

The Ukraine crisis: Unraveling the impacts and policy responses in low- and middle- income countries

Virtual Event: August 31, 2022 – 09:30 AM to 11:00 AM EDT. In this seminar speakers will share presentations and discussions on how policymakers and other key actors are addressing the challenges created by the Ukraine crisis in specific countries.

Middle East and North Africa Discussion of IFPRI’s 2021 Global Food Policy Report: Transforming Food Systems After COVID-19
Series/Special Event

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June 9, 2021, 9:00 – 10:30 am

Middle East and North Africa Discussion of IFPRI’s 2021 Global Food Policy Report: Transforming Food Systems After COVID-19

Virtual Event: JUNE 09, 2021- 09:00 AM to 10:30 AM EDT. Middle East and North Africa's perspective on the world's response to COVID-19 and food system changes. 

Virtual Event - COVID-19’s Short-term Impacts on Economies, Food Systems and Poverty in African and Asian Countries: Economywide Estimates from Economywide Models
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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August 11, 2020, 9:30 – 10:45 am

Virtual Event – COVID-19’s Short-term Impacts on Economies, Food Systems and Poverty in African and Asian Countries: Economywide Estimates from Economywide Models

Using economywide models, presenters discuss the varied effects of different policies and economic structures on food systems and poverty during COVID-19 in Nigeria, Myanmar, and Sudan.
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News

August 13, 2024 | In the News

Sudan’s catastrophe: farmers could offer quick post-war recovery, if peace is found

Despite the stark reality, there is a potential path forward for Sudan, believe IFPRI experts.