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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Emily Schmidt

Emily Schmidt is a Senior Research Fellow in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit. Her most recent research explores household livelihood strategies in Papua New Guinea, including linkages between agriculture, poverty, and nutrition outcomes among rural smallholder farmers.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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experts

Foresight and Policy Modeling

Paul Dorosh

Senior Research Fellow

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Bio

Paul A. Dorosh is a Senior Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. He was previously the Division Director of IFPRI’s Development Strategy and Governance Unit from April 2011 until October 2024. Before that, his previous positions include IFPRI Senior Research Fellow and Program Leader of the Ethiopia Strategy Support Program in Addis Ababa (2008-2010), Senior Economist at the World Bank (2003-2008), senior research fellow with IFPRI in Dhaka, Bangladesh (1997-2001) and Associate Professor at Cornell University (1994-97). He holds a Ph.D. in Applied Economics from the Food Research Institute, Stanford University and a B.A. in Applied Mathematics from Harvard University, and has published research on agricultural markets, food policy, international trade, economy-wide modeling and the rural-urban transformation.

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Publications

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Brief

Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

2025Mukashov, Askar; Dorosh, Paul A.; Schmidt, Emily; Thurlow, James
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Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

Using an economy-wide, multi-sectoral model, this study explores potential vulnerability of Papua New Guinea (PNG) to economic shocks and identifies factors that contribute most to economic uncertainty. Economic scenarios were developed using historical data on volatile domestic sectors (e.g., primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation) and world prices of goods and services in which PNG trades. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of PNG was used to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under these scenarios. In addition, data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes. Key findings suggest that Papua New Guinea’s economy is predominantly exposed to external risks, with world prices and foreign capital volatility together accounting for approximately two-thirds of the potential variation in GDP and three-fourths of the potential variation in private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment (domestic production volatility contributes the remaining one-third and one-fourth, respectively). The current structure of the PNG economy underpins these results. While agriculture is the most uncertain sector, it is relatively less important compared to the overall economy; export earnings from energy and metals, as well as volatile foreign exchange capital inflows, play a much more significant role in the country’s current economic risks. Understanding how potential shocks might impact various segments of the PNG economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing sectoral productivity or diversifying production away from high-risk sectors.

Year published

2025

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Dorosh, Paul A.; Schmidt, Emily; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Dorosh, Paul A.; Schmidt, Emily; and Thurlow, James. 2025. Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks. Papua New Guinea Project Note 18. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173653

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Oceania; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Domestic Production; Machine Learning; Shock; Vulnerability; World Markets

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Climate Resilience

Record type

Brief

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Brief

Nepal: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

2024Mukashov, Askar; Thurlow, James; Dorosh, Paul A.; Jones, Eleanor
Details

Nepal: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

This study explores Nepal’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. Our analysis is based on an empirically based estimation of the probability distribution of these shocks and a machine learning summary of several thousand simulations of their impacts using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Nepal. In this way, we are able to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncer-tainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Our findings indicate that, given the very high import intensity of the economy, world market price and foreign exchange (FX) flow volatility have the largest impact on household welfare (consumption, poverty and undernour-ishment). However, domestic yield volatility, especially cereal yield volatility, is the most important risk to Nepal’s GDP. However, Overall, these findings suggest that risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors, can have major benefits for Nepal’s households and the overall economy.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Thurlow, James; Dorosh, Paul A.; Jones, Eleanor

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Thurlow, James; Dorosh, Paul A.; and Jones, Eleanor. 2024. Nepal: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks. Country Brief 5. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168723

Country/Region

Nepal

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Risk Assessment; Climate; Shock; Economic Shock; Market Prices; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Machine Learning; Agriculture; Crop Yield

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

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Book Chapter

The rice sector

2024Dorosh, Paul A.; Aung, Nilar; Minten, Bart
Details

The rice sector

Recent major local shocks have negatively affected Myanmar’s economy and its people. Disruptions in the world economy linked to the outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2020 and the Ukraine war in 2022 and 2023 have led to sharp price increases for petroleum products, wheat, vegetable oils, and other food products, as well as agricultural inputs, such as chemical fertilizers. Myanmar’s rice sector has also been adversely affected by increases in insecurity in rural areas, higher world prices, and reduced cross-border exports to China. This chapter explores the implications of these shocks for Myanmar’s rice exports, domestic rice production, and domestic rice prices. First, we discuss Myanmar’s rice economy. Next, we describe the equations, database, and parameters of the partial equilibrium model of Myanmar’s rice economy used in this analysis. We then present model simulation results, covering the effects of the income and price shocks in 2022, negative rice production shocks accompanied by lower rice exports in 2023, and implications of a cessation of cross-border rice exports to China. The final section summarizes the results, discusses policy implications, and suggests areas for further work.

Year published

2024

Authors

Dorosh, Paul A.; Aung, Nilar; Minten, Bart

Citation

Dorosh, Paul; Aung, Nilar; and Minten, Bart. 2024. The rice sector. In Myanmar’s agrifood system: Historical development, recent shocks, future opportunities. Boughton, Duncan; Belton, Ben; Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Masias, Ian; and Minten, Bart (Eds.). Chapter 11, pp. 279-307. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/155118

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

South-eastern Asia; Shock; Economic Situation; Farm Inputs; Exports; Rice; Prices; Agricultural Production; Markets

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Book Chapter

Events

Navigating Sudan’s Conflict: Research Insights and Policy Implications
Series/Special Event

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March 5, 2024, 12:00 – 9:00 pm

Navigating Sudan’s Conflict: Research Insights and Policy Implications

Hybrid Event: March 5, 2024 at 8:00am-6:00pm EAT / 12:00am – 10:00am EST. IFPRI and UNDP have partnered for this event on wide-ranging and in-depth analysis to better understand the socioeconomic impact of the war in Sudan, and to inform policy and programmatic recommendations.

Training Workshop: Food Policy Analysis Using Multi-Market Partial Equilibrium Modeling
IFPRI Program/Country Event

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May 2 to 4, 2023

Training Workshop: Food Policy Analysis Using Multi-Market Partial Equilibrium Modeling

Event: May 2, 2023 – 9:00 AM to May 4, 2023 – 5:00 PM EDT. IFPRI-Sudan is organizing a capacity building workshop on food policy analysis using multi-market partial equilibrium modeling. This three-day training event will be held at the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development (AOAD) in Khartoum, Sudan and will be led by IFPRI’s Paul Dorosh and Khalid Siddig.

Virtual Event - Ethiopia’s agri-food system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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September 22, 2020, 8:30 – 10:00 am

Virtual Event – Ethiopia’s agri-food system: Past trends, present challenges, and future scenarios

Ethiopia has experienced impressive agricultural growth and poverty reduction, stemming in part from substantial public investments in agriculture. Yet, the agriculture sector now faces increasing land and water constraints along with other challenges to growth.  Growth in the agriculture sector remains essential to continued poverty reduction in Ethiopia and will depend on sustained investment in […]

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News

October 07, 2024 | Press Release

Steven Were Omamo joins IFPRI as the new Director of the Development Strategies and Governance Unit

IFPRI is pleased to announce that Steven Were Omamo joins IFPRI as the new Director of the DSG Unit.

April 13, 2022 | In the News

Russia-Ukraine conflict is driving up wheat prices: this could fuel instability in Sudan (The Conversation)

The Conversation published an op-ed by senior research fellows Clemens Breisinger, David Laborde, Joseph Glauber, Paul Dorosh, and research fellow Oliver Kiptoo Kurui. In the op-ed, the authors write that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted agricultural production and trade from one of the world’s major food exporting regions. The war threatens to drive rising […]

June 25, 2019 | In the News

The Rohingya in Bangladesh are surviving – but their long-term prospects are grim (The Telegraph)

The UK’s Telegraph published an opinion piece by Director of Development Strategy and Governance (DSGD) Paul Dorosh and Nonesident Fellow in the Poverty, Health, and Nutrition Division (PHND) John Hoddinott on the status of Rohingya refugees almost two years after 671,000 fled violence and persecution in Myanmar. Dorosh and Hoddinott described the success of Bangladeshi […]

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