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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Emily Schmidt

Emily Schmidt is a Senior Research Fellow in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit. Her most recent research explores household livelihood strategies in Papua New Guinea, including linkages between agriculture, poverty, and nutrition outcomes among rural smallholder farmers.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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Projects

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) was developed in the early 1990s to explore the long term challenges facing policymakers in reducing hunger and poverty in a sustainable fashion. The IMPACT model has been expanded and improved repeatedly to respond to increasingly complex policy questions and the state-of-the-art of modeling. See documentation of most recent update.

Currently, IMPACT is a network of linked economic, water, and crop models. At its core is a partial equilibrium multi-market economic model, which simulates national and international agricultural markets. The links to water and crop models support the integrated analysis of changing environmental, biophysical, and socioeconomic trends, allowing for in-depth analysis on a variety of critical issues of interest to policymakers at national, regional, and global levels.

Many publications and other resources based on IMPACT analyses are available below. Also available is an online visualization tool providing key results from recent IMPACT analysis in an easy-to-access format.

For more information contact: IFPRI IMPACT model team.

Project duration: 2009 – ongoing

Contact

Keith Wiebe

Funders

CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)

Gates Foundation

United States of America

Wellcome Trust

Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

Project partners

CGIAR Centers

Oxford University

Commonwealth Scientific And Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)

Potsdam Institute For Climate Impact Research

Purdue University

Wageningen University

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

European Commission’s Joint Research Center

University of Florida

Columbia University

Publications

Resource thumbnail

Working Paper

Tajikistan’s agrifood system: The past performance and future opportunities and challenges

2025Diao, Xinshen; Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Aliev, Jovidon; Fang, Peixun; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James
Details

Tajikistan’s agrifood system: The past performance and future opportunities and challenges

This study analyzes the past performance and future opportunities and challenges of Tajikistan’s agrifood system (AFS). The study measures the current size and structure of AFS and its historical contribution to economic growth and transformation through a data-driven exercise. A forward-looking economywide model is used to assess the effectiveness of future AFS growth (led by agricultural productivity gains in different value chains) in promoting multiple development outcomes. The findings of the study indicate that AFS transformation is an important part of Tajikistan’s economic transformation and structural change. Because of lower growth contributions from AFS’s off-farm components as well as fewer farm workers moving from primary agriculture to off-farm activities within AFS, Tajikistan’s AFS did not grow as quickly as the broader economy. Expanding off-farm activities to boost on-farm productivity growth remains a challenge for sustainable transformation of Tajikistan’s AFS. Using an economywide model, we find that there is no single value chain group that would most effectively achieve all desired development outcomes including broad economic growth, job creation, declining poverty, and improved diets. Livestock value chains, however, have the most potential to contribute to multiple development outcomes, particularly to dietary improvement, and these value chains also performed impressively during the study period. Moreover, most cattle and ruminants are owned by household farms, and their growth could contribute to broader agricultural transformation. The maize value chain also ranks high in the model-based comparison, but it seems to only modestly contribute to job creation and diet quality and had performed disappointingly during the study period. While growth in livestock and maize value chains face a series of challenges and constraints, promoting them together seems to offer an effective way to broadly achieve important development outcomes.

Year published

2025

Authors

Diao, Xinshen; Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Aliev, Jovidon; Fang, Peixun; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James

Citation

Diao, Xinshen; Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Aliev, Jovidon; Fang, Peixun; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Pauw, Karl; and Thurlow, James. 2025. Tajikistan’s agrifood system: The past performance and future opportunities and challenges. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2329. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173731

Country/Region

Tajikistan

Keywords

Asia; Central Asia; Agrifood Systems; Diet; Economic Growth; Poverty

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Working Paper

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Preferences for ecosystem payment programs in Papua New Guinea

2025Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; Holtemeyer, Brian; Gimiseve, Harry; Safi, Wendy
Details

Preferences for ecosystem payment programs in Papua New Guinea

We evaluate forest landholders’ preferences to enter a hypothetical Payment for Ecosystem Service (PES) contract (i.e., voluntary carbon credit contract) and assess the relative importance of different program attributes that influence forest landholder preference for such contracts. When evaluating the attractiveness of PES contracts for forest landholders, analysis suggests that on average, forest landholders are not inclined to enter a PES contract. However, when evaluating differences among households, a variety of characteristics shape the willingness to accept a PES contract, including:  Landholders that are aware of climate change impacts and those from communities that previously participated in forest protection programs are more likely to accept a PES contract.  Households that use forested land for commercial logging or hunting grounds are more inclined to accept a PES contract, viewing these contracts as an opportunity to protect forest goods and services.  Households that rely on forested land for timber harvesting for personal building purposes are less likely to join a PES program, viewing contracts as restrictive to personal land use needs. When assessing different levels of contract attributes (e.g., payment amount, forest area requirement, and contract length), analysis suggests that forest landholders are more likely to accept a contract that:  Offers higher financial incentives  Requires half of their forested land to be under contract (compared to all of their forested land). On average, forest landholders require an additional annual compensation of $39.07 USD (152 PGK) per hectare to accept PES contracts that require full forested land preservation compared to preserving half of their forested land.

Year published

2025

Authors

Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; Holtemeyer, Brian; Gimiseve, Harry; Safi, Wendy

Citation

Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; Holtemeyer, Brian; Gimiseve, Harry; and Safi, Wendy. 2025. Preferences for ecosystem payment programs in Papua New Guinea. Papua New Guinea Project Note 17. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173596

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Asia; Melanesia; Ecosystem Management; Forestry; Carbon; Climate Change

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Climate Resilience

Record type

Brief

Resource thumbnail

Journal Article

Building Ethiopia’s food security resilience to climate and hydrological change

2025Murgatroyd, Anna; Thomas, Timothy S.; Koo, Jawoo; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Hall, Jim
Details

Building Ethiopia’s food security resilience to climate and hydrological change

Historically Ethiopia’s food security has been sensitive to climatic variability, but changes in future weather and climate could lead to overall reductions and increased variability in agricultural production, without further adaptation. We present an integrated modelling assessment framework which combines climate, crop, and hydrological modelling to quantify future risks to Ethiopia’s food security. We explore the impacts of 2°C and higher climate change scenarios on water availability and crop yields and simulate how future climate shocks may impact Ethiopia’s food. We consider three adaptations to agricultural management practices (improved seed varieties, increased use of nitrogen fertilizer and supplementary irrigation) and quantify their effectiveness in enhancing the resilience of Ethiopia’s food system to climate and hydrological change by 2050. Results show that, without policy intervention, climate change creates a risk of declining Meher season crop yields across Ethiopia. Under the worst climate change scenario, teff (−12.0%), barley (−6.7%), and wheat (−4.4%) are projected to have the largest decline in average yields, whilst maize (−0.1%) and sorghum (+0.9%) yields are less impacted thanks to more favourable growing conditions. However, the results also indicate that the adaptation options have a bigger beneficial effect than the climate impact. Of the policies evaluated, improved seeds have a relatively greater effect than increased fertilizer use. Supplementary irrigation could help to mitigate increases in crop water requirements under warmer climate conditions and is most effective in drought prone basins and for drought-vulnerable crops. Overall, the results show that locally relevant agricultural policies are necessary to build Ethiopia’s food system resilience to climate and hydrological change by the mid-century.

Year published

2025

Authors

Murgatroyd, Anna; Thomas, Timothy S.; Koo, Jawoo; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Hall, Jim

Citation

Murgatroyd, Anna; Thomas, Timothy S.; Koo, Jawoo; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; and Hall, Jim. 2025. Building Ethiopia’s food security resilience to climate and hydrological change. Environmental Research: Food Systems 2(1): 015008. https://doi.org/10.1088/2976-601X/ad99dd

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Food Security; Resilience; Climate Change; Climate Resilience; Hydrological Cycle

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1088/2976-601x/ad99dd Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Journal Article

Blogs

$15.2 billion in research and innovation investments can put global climate and hunger goals within reach
IFPRI Blog
 | 
August 16, 2021

$15.2 billion in research and innovation investments can put global climate and hunger goals within reach

By Uma Lele and Mark Rosegrant

A new report shows how targeted spending can have significant global benefits.

COVID-19-related trade restrictions on rice and wheat could drive up prices and increase hunger
IFPRI Blog
 | 
May 15, 2020

COVID-19-related trade restrictions on rice and wheat could drive up prices and increase hunger

By Timothy Sulser and Shahnila Dunston

Modeling suggests export bans intended to buttress domestic food supplies could have wide impacts.

Knowledge for a sustainable food future: New foresight tool examines impact of agricultural investments
IFPRI Blog
 | 
January 07, 2020

Knowledge for a sustainable food future: New foresight tool examines impact of agricultural investments

By Sara Gustafson

How can we feed 10 billion people by 2050? How much and in what ways will climate change impact global food production? What can be done to ensure that the world’s agriculture and food systems remain sustainable in both the short and the long term? To answer these and other critical questions, researchers and development […]

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Events

How Can We Improve Food Security Monitoring in Conflict-Affected Regions? Machine Learning for Spatially Granular Food Security Mapping
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

March 25, 2025, 9:30 – 10:30 am

How Can We Improve Food Security Monitoring in Conflict-Affected Regions? Machine Learning for Spatially Granular Food Security Mapping

Machine learning is transforming agricultural and food security research, enabling more accurate and timely insights. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) is advancing data-driven approaches in various domains, including crop-type mapping, maize yield estimation, and boat detection. These innovations demonstrate the potential of machine learning in addressing complex challenges and informing policy decisions. A […]

How does agricultural productivity growth affect agrifood system transformation goals? Exploring trade-offs using IMPACT
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

July 9, 2024, 9:00 – 10:00 am

How does agricultural productivity growth affect agrifood system transformation goals? Exploring trade-offs using IMPACT

Agrifood systems are complex and changing, so it is critical to explore different potential futures to inform decisions today that can put the world on a better path for livelihoods, health, and the environment. In the coming decades, changes in population, income, and diets will put increasing pressure on agrifood systems to meet evolving food […]

What does climate change mean for the future of agriculture? Insights from the IMPACT modeling system
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

May 15, 2024, 10:00 – 11:00 am

What does climate change mean for the future of agriculture? Insights from the IMPACT modeling system

Virtual Event: May 15, 2024 at 10:00am-11:00am EDT. This webinar, the first in the series, will focus on how IMPACT can be used to analyze how climate impacts on agrifood systems (and particularly crop productivity) may vary both across locations and over time in the coming decades, and how that can inform decisions about policies and investment today.

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Funders

CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
Gates Foundation
United States of America
Wellcome Trust
Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

Team members

Keith Wiebe

Keith Wiebe

Senior Research Fellow, Foresight
and Policy Modeling

Keith Wiebe

Keith Wiebe

Senior Research Fellow, Foresight
and Policy Modeling

Timothy Thomas

Timothy Thomas

Senior Research Fellow, Foresight
and Policy Modeling, Latin America and the Caribbean

Other

Related Projects

Topics/Countries

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