IFPRI Publications: Books

Conclusion: From recovery to renewal of the agrifood system

Myanmar’s agrifood system is of critical importance for the near-term survival and longer-term flourishing of its diverse population. Prior to the recent crises, the food system accounted for almost half (47 percent) of Myanmar’s GDP and almost two-thirds (64 percent) of employment, while primary agriculture accounted for 22 percent of GDP and 49 percent of employment (Chapter 2). Recovery from the multiple crises Myanmar has faced since 2020 will require a combination of effective humanitarian assistance and sustained policy reforms and investment to resolve infrastructure limitations and constraints to sustainable productivity growth. These efforts are necessary to enable the agrifood system to fulfill its potential to improve food and nutrition security and reduce poverty. Our concluding chapter first reviews the trajectory of the agrifood system through multiple economic shocks, from the onset of COVID-19 in early 2020 through to the end of 2023; and the types of assistance needed to mitigate widespread food and nutrition insecurity. It then turns to longer-term investments and policies required to enable the agrifood system to drive long-term recovery and sustainable economic growth. While many of the shocks experienced by Myanmar since the onset of COVID-19 have also been experienced by other low-income countries, the consequences have been magnified and prolonged due to the military coup of February 1, 2021.

Agricultural mechanization: Drivers and characteristics

Widespread agricultural mechanization is a very recent phenomenon in Myanmar. In 2010, just 0.5 percent of farm households in the Delta used combine harvesters, and only 6 percent used threshers. A study of farm production economics in the country’s main agricultural zones in 2013/14 found that only 1 percent of paddy-cultivating households used combine harvesters. This was attributed to a combination of low wages and surplus labor in rural areas, poor infrastructure, a poor regulatory environment, and a lack of access to long-term capital among farmers. However, Myanmar’s policy reforms and reintegration into regional and global markets between 2011 and 2020 contributed to increasingly dynamic conditions, including economic growth averaging 7 percent per year (ADB 2018), accelerating out-migration from rural areas, and rapid rural transformation. This context gave rise to rapid and widespread agricultural mechanization. This chapter compares data from two pairs of complementary surveys to assess the effects of these economic changes on the uptake of agricultural mechanization. We combine demand-side (farm household) and supply-side (agricultural machinery retailer) surveys implemented between 2016 and 2018 across two major agroecological zones—a deltaic rice-growing environment (the Delta) and a rainfed semiarid zone (the Dry Zone). This approach allows for triangulation of results and captures variations in mechanization across geographies. In addition, we use data from multiple rounds of rapid assessments to evaluate the impacts of COVID-19 and other recent shocks.

Agricultural value chains: Examples of quiet transformation

Myanmar’s agricultural value chains1 are often perceived to be traditional and inefficient and to suffer from underinvestment, credit constraints, and inadequate technology. This perception is partly rooted in the legacy of Myanmar’s military socialist government (1962–1988). During this period, most private business was nationalized, agricultural production in the lowlands was brought under a command-and-control system, and the state assumed all responsibility for the provision of agricultural inputs, services such as mechanization, and crop procurement and marketing.

Livestock, capture fisheries, and aquaculture: Status and recent trends

Livestock rearing and fishing have been central components of rural livelihoods in Myanmar for centuries and remain so today. More capital-intensive forms of marine fishing, aquaculture, and poultry farming began to expand during the early 1990s and have grown briskly since then. Poultry and aquaculture commoditization accelerated between 2011 and 2019, stimulated by the demand-side pull of rapid income growth and by foreign and domestic investment in areas such as feed milling and food retail (for example, businesses such as Kentucky Fried Chicken, which opened in Myanmar in 2015). However, despite recent growth, both sectors lag behind those in more developed countries in the region in technological sophistication, scale, and regulation. This chapter summarizes the status of the supply side of livestock, capture fisheries, and aquaculture based on an analysis of nationally representative data extracted from the Myanmar Living Conditions Survey (MLCS) 2017 (CSO 2019) and a review of trends in these sectors using information drawn from other recent surveys and secondary sources. We analyze MLCS to sketch a picture of the contributions of livestock, capture fisheries, and aquaculture to household incomes in the four agroecological zones (AEZs—Delta, Dry Zone, Coastal Zone, and Hills and Mountains) into which MLCS results are categorized (CSO, UNDP, and World Bank 2019). The MLCS livestock and fishery modules asked questions about each household’s ownership, production, sales, and consumption of livestock and livestock byproducts, as well as aquaculture and capture fisheries products in the previous 12 months. Respondents were asked to estimate the quantity or value of these variables, making it possible to calculate the value of livestock and fish income, expenditure, and consumption for each household.

Vulnerability and welfare during multiple crises

The triple transition that took place between 2011 and 2019 in Myanmar—from a planned to an open market economy, from military to civilian rule, from conflict to peace—was not without its limitations. As discussed in Chapter 1, poverty reduction was modest relative to economic growth, a fully democratic system was not established, and ethnic conflict continued in many areas. In this mixed context of social welfare improvements and unfulfilled reforms, COVID-19 hit—the first in a series of crises. The pandemic had an immediate adverse impact on Myanmar’s economy and pushed many households into poverty. Then, while the country remained under threat from the pandemic, in February 2021, the military took over in a coup, and Myanmar fell into a political crisis. Declines in welfare accelerated for many. One year later, the Myanmar economy faced sharp rises in prices for food, fuel, and fertilizer as a result of a global economic crisis triggered by the start of the conflict in Ukraine. This triple crisis—pandemic, political, economic— has had enormous impacts on welfare and livelihoods in Myanmar. (Chapter 1 summarizes how the triple crisis unfolded; refer to that chapter for details on the causes, levels, and apparent consequences of the sequence of shocks.)

Farm commercialization: A transformation on hold or in reverse?

When food systems transform, farmers’ interactions with markets change dramatically. With changes from traditional to transitional to modern systems—as defined by Reardon and Minten (2021)— farmers move from mostly subsistence-oriented agriculture with few market interactions toward heavy reliance on spot markets for inputs, outputs, and services, and ultimately to contract farming. Such reliance on markets during these transformation processes has been shown to lead to significant improvements in farm performance and in agricultural households’ welfare. However, in a number of low- and middle-income countries, there is often a lack of clarity regarding which stage of transformation farms have reached and how to expedite such transformations. There is limited understanding of agricultural markets and farm commercialization in Myanmar in particular because of a lack of nationally representative and updated data on the farm sector. Moreover, over the past decade, the country has undergone substantial changes in its economic and agricultural market policies, as well as major COVID-19 and military coup shocks. This has all had significant impacts on the farm commercialization situation. To understand farm commercialization and its evolution, then, we first need an overview of these policy changes and shocks.

The rice sector

Recent major local shocks have negatively affected Myanmar’s economy and its people. Disruptions in the world economy linked to the outbreak of COVID-19 in early 2020 and the Ukraine war in 2022 and 2023 have led to sharp price increases for petroleum products, wheat, vegetable oils, and other food products, as well as agricultural inputs, such as chemical fertilizers. Myanmar’s rice sector has also been adversely affected by increases in insecurity in rural areas, higher world prices, and reduced cross-border exports to China. This chapter explores the implications of these shocks for Myanmar’s rice exports, domestic rice production, and domestic rice prices. First, we discuss Myanmar’s rice economy. Next, we describe the equations, database, and parameters of the partial equilibrium model of Myanmar’s rice economy used in this analysis. We then present model simulation results, covering the effects of the income and price shocks in 2022, negative rice production shocks accompanied by lower rice exports in 2023, and implications of a cessation of cross-border rice exports to China. The final section summarizes the results, discusses policy implications, and suggests areas for further work.

Migration trends and implications

Following economic and political reforms initiated in 2011, the country’s population has been adapting rapidly to new opportunities and challenges, including through relocation and migration. This chapter describes some of the patterns and dynamics related to these population flows, as well as their consequences for Myanmar’s rural economy. Most of the chapter is based on data collected prior to the triple crises, but recent analyses allow us to give an overview of the migration landscape in the post-2020 era at the end of the chapter (MAPSA 2024c). These analyses confirm that overall migration dynamics have largely persisted.

Myanmar’s agrifood system: Historical development, recent shocks, future opportunities

Myanmar has endured multiple crises in recent years — including COVID-19, global price instability, the 2021 coup, and widespread conflict — that have disrupted and even reversed a decade of economic development. Household welfare has declined severely, with more than 3 million people displaced and many more affected by high food price inflation and worsening diets. Yet Myanmar’s agrifood production and exports have proved surprisingly resilient. Myanmar’s Agrifood System: Historical Development, Recent Shocks, Future Opportunities provides critical analyses and insights into the agrifood system’s evolution, current state, and future potential. This work fills an important knowledge gap for one of Southeast Asia’s major agricultural economies — one largely closed to empirical research for many years. It is the culmination of a decade of rigorous empirical research on Myanmar’s agrifood system, including through the recent crises. Written by IFPRI researchers and colleagues from Michigan State University, the book’s insights can serve as a to guide immediate humanitarian assistance and inform future growth strategies, once a sustainable resolution to the current crisis is found that ensures lasting peace and good governance.

Dietary quality and nutrition: Past progress, current and future challenges

Prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the military coup in 2021, Myanmar was experiencing a period of rapid economic growth and transformation in the wake of economic and political liberalization. Between 2005 and 2017, average annual growth in real GDP per capita was 7.8 percent, making Myanmar the fastest growing economy among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries. Strong growth was accompanied by a halving of the national poverty rate between 2005 and 2017 from 48.2 to 24.8 percent (CSO, UNDP, and World Bank 2019). COVID19 and the economic and political shocks affecting the country since 2021 have led to an economic contraction: 2021 saw an 18 percent drop in real GDP per capita; in 2022, real GDP per capita was estimated to be 15 percent lower than in 2019 (World Bank 2022). The impacts on poverty were even more dire. A high-frequency panel phone survey of mothers and young children in urban Yangon and the rural Dry Zone revealed incomes collapsing during the COVID-19 lockdowns and further income losses in the wake of the February 2021 military takeover (Headey et al. 2022). Prices rose dramatically, with the consumer price index rising by 20 percent between July 2021 and July 2022 (MOPF 2022), while food prices rose by 34 percent over the same period and by about 50 percent between December 2021 and December 2022. Nationally, a variety of different poverty indicators suggest that between 40 and 50 percent of the population was living in poverty in 2022 —poverty rates similar to those found between 2005 and 2010.

Food processing: A stalled transformation

Processed foods account for 80 percent of global food sales. Such foods are becoming increasingly important in low- and middle-income countries, driven by growing demand for convenient and ready-to-eat products. The aim of this chapter is to analyze the state and evolution of food processing in Myanmar and to assess the effect of the crises (COVID-19 and the military coup) on the different segments—production, trade, and consumption—of the sector. This assessment is important given the possible implications of changes in food processing for agriculture, employment opportunities in the food processing industry and food service sector, and nutritional outcomes.

Women and youth in agriculture

Gendered social and cultural norms often strongly emphasize women’s roles as caregivers. Such norms may, in turn, contribute to gender patterns in economic activity, including agricultural activity. Meanwhile, youth are at a critical stage in their lives as they transition from being “dependent” household members to a more independent stage of life, with increasing caregiving and income-generating responsibilities. There may, therefore, be generational differences between youth and non-youth in terms of their contributions to economic activities—including the extent to which they are involved in one sector or another. Knowing and understanding the gendered and generational contributions and roles of women, men, and youth in rural livelihoods and the inequalities therein are critical to designing policies and interventions. Without such evidence, policies and projects risk being designed on the basis of false assumptions, at best lowering efficiency and, at worst, leading to harmful outcomes. So far, only a handful of studies have described gender roles in Myanmar agriculture, and these rely on case study evidence and qualitative data. Little quantitative evidence is available about women’s and youth’s roles in agriculture in Myanmar and, more broadly, in the rural economy.

Crop production: An engine in need of an upgrade

According to the Myanmar Living Conditions Survey (MLCS) undertaken in 2017, 54 percent of rural households and 8.4 percent of urban households earn some of their income from crop farming (CSO, UNDP, and World Bank 2020). As seen in Chapter 2, crop production has important value-added and employment linkages upstream and downstream from farms, including in fertilizer and chemical input supply, mechanization services, transport, processing, wholesale and retail distribution, and exports. Crop production also provides the majority of the nation’s calorie intake as well as raw material for processed animal feed. However, as Chapter 3 shows, with maize as the one exception, the crop sector itself has not grown in recent years due to decades of underinvestment in agricultural research, limited transport infrastructure, and highly variable prices for export crops. This chapter provides a more detailed picture of the spatial distribution of crop production and production technologies, which is relevant to the discussion in Chapter 18 on regional variations in rural livelihoods.

Introduction [in Myanmar’s agrifood system: Historical development, recent shocks, future opportunities]

A decade of rapid, albeit uneven, progress in Myanmar’s economic development was thrown into reverse by a series of shocks that began with the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. The pandemic was followed by the military coup of February 2021 and the global food, fuel, and fertilizer supply crisis spurred by the armed conflict in Ukraine that began a year later. The coup led to a surge in conflict around the country, hampering and often devastating the livelihoods of the population at large while also causing the internal displacement of about 2.3 million people by the end of 2023, adding to those displaced during prior conflicts. The sharp depreciation of Myanmar’s currency since the coup multiplied the inflationary impact of international price increases for fuel, fertilizer, and imported vegetable oils, causing inflation to spiral upward even as employment opportunities withered. By late 2023, over 70 percent of the population was estimated to be in poverty, more than double the 2017 poverty rate of 25 percent. Though Myanmar’s agrifood system was not left unscathed by these shocks, it has proved resilient. Agriculture and the rural economy are essential to Myanmar’s development, as 70 percent of the population and 87 percent of the country’s poor live in rural areas (MOPF and World Bank 2017a). Agriculture and its associated agro-industries form a key sector of the national economy, employing half of the total labor force and contributing one-third of national GDP—about 23 percent directly in farm incomes and another 11 percent in agro-processing, distribution, marketing, exports, and food retailing (Chapter 2). Ekanayake, Ambrosio, and Jaffee (2019) estimate that nearly half of Myanmar’s poverty reduction between 2005 and 2015 was attributable directly to progress in agriculture. Therefore, a well-functioning agrifood system is crucial to the welfare and food security of Myanmar’s residents.

The Impact of climate change on agriculture

Agriculture is an extremely important sector for Africa, providing a large contribution to GDP in most countries and, more importantly, representing a key source of employment in most of the continent—including 52 percent in Africa south of the Sahara in 2022 (International Labour Organization 2024)—while also serving as a bulwark against household food insecurity. Agriculture, however, is the sector most exposed to climate risk, and in years when climate conditions are not favorable, the resulting lower-than-normal agricultural production contributes to increases in food insecurity in almost every country on the continent.

Climate risks and vulnerabilities in African agrifood systems

In an era when the impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly pronounced, understanding and mitigating climate risk is paramount, especially for regions highly vulnerable to environmental change. Africa, with its rich biodiversity and varied climates, stands on the front line, facing unique challenges posed by climate change and climate variability. The continent’s susceptibility around climate change is not just a matter of environmental concern but a multifaceted issue affecting socioeconomic development, agricultural sustainability, and the overall well-being of its inhabitants. The imperative to assess, comprehend, and adapt to these risks is more critical now than ever, necessitating a detailed analysis of various climate-related parameters and their long-term implications.

Innovative financing mechanisms for climate adaptation in African agrifood systems

Agrifood systems are a leading cause of climate change globally, as they are responsible for a third of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the majority of which are tied to agricultural production (39 percent), followed by land use (32 percent) and supply chain activities (29 percent). Moreover, unsustainable agricultural practices continue to drive 80 percent of the loss of terrestrial biodiversity, soil degradation, and deforestation and are responsible for 70 percent of global freshwater withdrawals. GHG emissions are projected to increase by 60 to 90 percent through 2050 unless corrective action is taken (Apampa et al. 2021). Africa’s share of global GHG emissions is small (2 to 3 percent) but rising, with agriculture and land use change as major contributors (Adolph, Griffiths, and Hou-Jones 2023; FAO 2022).

Adaptation actions to climate change in African agriculture: Effectiveness and challenges

Climate change poses a significant burden to African development and economic growth, impacting households at both national and regional levels. While accounting for only 3–4 percent of global emissions, Africa is most vulnerable to climate change due to low levels of socioeconomic growth (Kikstra et al. 2022). Africa’s vulnerability to climate change is exacerbated by its reliance on rain-fed agriculture, environmental degradation, inadequate infrastructure, widespread poverty, and increased frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters. These factors make Africa highly susceptible to climate-related disruptions such as droughts and floods and can amplify the impact of climate-related disasters on communities, economies, and ecosystems (UNECA 2013; WMO 2020). Effective adaptation strategies and risk financing mechanisms are crucial for building regional adaptive capacity and resilience.

Climate action and bioeconomy transition: Mainstreaming environmental sustainability in the Post-Malabo Agenda of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme

The concepts of the green economy, circular economy, blue economy, and bioeconomy started emerging in response to the multidimensional economic, socioecological, and climate change crises. These concepts are becoming popular in sustainability discussions in policy, scientific research, and business and are expected to promote sustainability through different pathways of transformation. Each of these frameworks offers a comprehensive package of solutions, yet all point toward renewable, bio-based processes and nature-based or nature-friendly solutions (Kirchherr, Reike, and Hekkert 2017; Geissdoerfer et al. 2017; D’Amato and Korhonen 2021). The bioeconomy, which is more focused on biological and nature-based/positive processes, is usually viewed as a more holistic concept that encompasses principles of the green economy, circular economy, and blue economy (Figure 12.1).

Introduction [in Advancing the climate and bioeconomy agenda in Africa for resilient and sustainable agrifood systems]

Taken together, long-term dynamics such as demographic changes, urbanization, and a continent-wide nutrition transition pose a complex set of challenges to African agrifood systems. These challenges are further compounded by the frequent and extreme weather events linked to the deepening climate crisis, whose effects range from prolonged droughts, floods, and disease outbreaks, to rising sea levels, increasing heatwaves, and changing rainfall patterns. Left unmitigated, the likely effects on agricultural yields and productivity, infrastructure, broader economic growth, and community livelihoods risk unraveling the progress made in improving food security and nutrition, as well as alleviating poverty. In one of the latest illustrations of climate change impacts across Africa, several thousand people lost their lives in Libya after torrential rain caused two dams to collapse in September 2023. The recent El Niño–induced droughts and floods across Southern Africa have led the United Nations and its partners to call for urgent action, as more than 30 million people across the region face the effects of severe drought. The consortium has warned that millions could be pushed into acute hunger unless support is urgently mobilized before the next lean season (WFP 2024). These shocks are seriously disrupting production cycles and hampering the ability of countries to guarantee food security for their populations.

Bioeconomy pathways: Experience from Africa, Asia, and Latin America

In 2022, the Malabo Montpellier Panel published a report that made the case for African countries to embrace a bioeconomy approach to meet their agrifood systems transformation and economic growth ambitions. The Panel systematically identified four African countries at the forefront of transitioning to a bioeconomy to better understand how different governments choose their own context-specific bioeconomy development pathways (Malabo Montpellier Panel 2022). Building on this analysis, this chapter provides a snapshot of how different countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America are choosing their own context-specific bioeconomy entry points and pathways. It provides an update of the analyses by the Panel on the cases of Ghana, Namibia, and Uganda. In addition, this chapter shows how Brazil and Thailand have embraced a bioeconomy transition to support learning not just across borders, but across regions.

Tracking key CAADP indicators and implementation processes

In this chapter we review Africa’s progress in CAADP process implementation and on the CAADP RF indicators to highlight areas of strong performance that need to be sustained or accelerated as well as areas of weak performance that require urgent attention to enable the continent to meet its Malabo Declaration agricultural transformation goals. The chapter examines progress on 27 of the 38 CAADP RF indicators for which cross-country data are available (Table 13.2). Details of the indicators and aggregate statistics are available in the data tables in Annexes 1–3 of this report. Progress on the RF indicators is discussed across different aggregated geographic and economic groupings of African countries by comparing trends in the RF indicators during the first five years after the adoption of CAADP (2003–2008) with later subperiods (2008–2014 and 2014–2023), with a particular focus on the Malabo Declaration period of 2014–2023.

A nutrition-sensitive circular bioeconomy for food systems transformation in Africa

Africa’s commitment to creating a sustainable and self-sufficient economy for its rapidly growing population has led to programmatic actions aimed at meeting local food, energy, and material demands sustainably and without compromising planetary boundaries (Africa Business Page 2022; Agri SA 2023). The bioeconomy has become a primary focus of this transformative blueprint, generally positioned as a vehicle for generating and using bioresources in meeting local demands for abundance, sustainable goods, and services (Gatune, Ozor, and Oriama 2021; Malabo Montpellier Panel 2022). However, the implementation momentum of the bioeconomy is incumbent on a well-planned and objective-oriented policy framework that supports generation of scientific evidence and reasonable investment structures, among other requirements for implementation (East African Community 2022; Pachón et al. 2018).

The impact of climate change on African economies and opportunities for agrifood system transformation

As in the rest of the world, the climate is changing in Africa, with data showing a slightly faster warming trend than the global average of around +0.2°C per decade for the 1991–2022 period. In Africa, the average rate of change of temperature was around +0.3°C per decade between 1991 and 2022, while it was estimated at +0.2°C per decade between 1961 and 1990. In addition, all six African subregions have experienced an increase in warming over the past 60 years compared with the period before 1960. Due to global warming, Africa is observing a change in precipitation patterns, a rise in sea level, and an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, extreme heat, and cyclones (WMO 2023). For instance, the report on the State of the Climate in Africa in 2022 (WMO 2023) showed that precipitation anomalies were above the 1991–2020 average in northeastern Africa, large parts of West Africa, the eastern Sahel region, Sudan, and parts of South Africa. In addition, several regions experienced rainfall deficits including the western part of North Africa, the Horn of Africa, portions of southern Africa, and Madagascar. Sea level rise in Africa’s seven coastal regions has been similar to the global sea level average rate of increase of 3.4 millimeters (plus or minus 0.3 millimeters) per year between 1990 and 2020. In addition, extreme weather events are growing in frequency and intensity. With respect to extreme weather events including droughts, floods, extreme heat, and cyclones, data from the Emergency Event Database in Africa showed that 80 meteorological, hydrological, and climate-related hazards were reported in 2022 (WMO 2023).

The converging climate change and bioeconomy agendas as a pathway toward implementing the post-Malabo CAADP agenda

In June 2014, the African heads of state and government adopted the Malabo Declaration on Accelerated Agricultural Growth and Transformation for Shared Prosperity and Improved Livelihoods. The declaration contains a set of concrete goals to be attained by 2025, known as the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), which in turn functions as the main policy framework for the African Union (AU) in the agricultural sector. The declaration thus provided a new direction for a more focused approach to achieving the continent’s vision for agricultural growth and transformation (AUC 2014). According to the African Union Commission (AUC) and the African Union Development Agency (AUDA-NEPAD), the CAADP was designed as a practical instrument and framework through which Africa was going to drive efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. The importance of evidence to inform policy design and implementation, inclusive participation of multiple stakeholder groups at all stages of the policy process, and mutual accountability for actions and results are at the heart of the CAADP. These principles help formulate high-quality policies and ensure that successful policies are scaled up while unsuccessful ones are adjusted. Since the adoption of the Malabo Declaration, 10 years have elapsed, and considerable progress toward achieving some of its targets is visible across the continent. With the lifespan of the Malabo Declaration coming to an end, the AU proactively initiated the design of a new 10-year strategy, covering the period from 2026 to 2035. As Africa has embarked on designing this successor strategy, it faces multiple complex challenges compounded by the climate crisis. With the opportune timing of this Annual Trends and Outlook Report, this chapter explores how the convergence of the climate change agenda and the transition to a bioeconomy will shape future strategic political decisions across the continent, effecting an equitable and sustainable transformation of agrifood systems. Thus, the bioeconomy can be a solution to future challenges resulting from climate change (for example, climate adaption) vis-à-vis the challenges of avoiding the unsustainable use of natural resources (through climate mitigation, land use change, and the sustainable use of inputs). Simultaneously, the bioeconomy will generate opportunities for new markets—including markets for bioproducts, bioenergy or food based on insects or waste, and carbon engineering (markets that are discussed in Featured Issue 1).

Just energy transition: Challenges and low carbon pathways for Africa

Transitioning to renewable energy is a critical part of addressing climate change and ensuring sustainable development. However, if this transition does not consider the social, economic, and financial implications for African countries, it cannot be considered a “just” transition for Africa. At the social level, the transition to low-carbon pathways, such as renewable energy sources, will create new employment opportunities. However, poor countries and marginalized populations may face disproportionate challenges during this transition if they are excluded from decision-making processes or do not benefit from these new job prospects. It is therefore essential to ensure that low-carbon pathways help reduce social inequalities and improve livelihoods for people in these countries and communities. At the economic and financial levels, transitioning to low-carbon pathways will require significant funding to develop national or regional value chains, invest in research and development, and build capacity. International financial support will be crucial for developing countries, especially in Africa, to ensure a just transition.

Conclusion [in 2024 annual trends and outlook report]

African agrifood systems face several challenges and threats, both emerging and existing, that require concerted action and targeted policymaking by African governments and their partners. The 2024 edition of the Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) explores the challenges posed by the climate crisis to agrifood systems and the opportunities offered by a transition to a bioeconomy to mitigate and adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change. This edition of the ATOR seeks to support the development and subsequent implementation of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) through the renewed and updated post-Malabo CAADP agenda.

Exploring methane emissions in Africa

In the 21st century, climate change has emerged as one of the most pressing human and environmental crises. The primary driver of this global challenge is the accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O), in the atmosphere. In analyzing Africa’s contribution to the global GHG budget,1 it is essential to consider two factors: the absolute emissions of the continent and their role in the global carbon cycle. It is well known that Africa’s GHG emissions are relatively low on a per capita basis, but they are rising due to population growth, urbanization, and increased human activities. According to new studies (Mostefaoui et al. 2024), Africa’s methane emissions are steadily increasing. This trend reflects both agricultural development and environmental factors, such as increased forest fires due to aridity and climate variability, including the effects of El Niño.

Africa in world agricultural trade: Recent trends and carbon footprint

Agriculture, deeply embedded within the cultural and economic fabric of African societies, is a linchpin for the continent’s socioeconomic advancement. With its diverse array of climatic conditions, Africa hosts a spectrum of agricultural practices, ranging from traditional subsistence farming to modern commercial enterprises. However, alongside agriculture’s pivotal role in livelihoods and economic growth, the sector poses a challenge as a significant contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Against this backdrop, a nuanced understanding of the intricate relationship among agricultural activities, emissions, and international trade emerges as crucial for balancing sustainable development within Africa and global climate change mitigation efforts. In an era marked by the urgent imperative to address climate change and curb GHG emissions, the role of agriculture has come under intense scrutiny (Smith et al. 2014). The global agriculture sector, intricately interwoven with international trade, underscores the multifaceted environmental complexities inherent in agricultural production and distribution. Climate change significantly impacts global agrifood trade dynamics, influencing production patterns, market accessibility, and economic resilience (Bozzola, Lamonaca, and Santeramo 2023; Gouel and Laborde 2021; Lamonaca, Bozzola, and Santeramo 2024). These effects are compounded by climate-induced shifts in crop yields, water availability, and temperature regimes, altering both supply and demand dynamics across international markets. Notably, agricultural goods traded across borders “carry” the emissions generated during their production and transportation. This notion of emissions embodied in exports and imports has garnered increasing attention in contemporary literature (Davis and Caldeira 2010). Recent studies emphasize the significant interlinkages between climate change and emissions embedded in trade within the agrifood sector. For example, Santeramo, Ferrari, and Toteti (2024) explore the intricate balance required to achieve climate change and environmental goals without resorting to protectionist measures, emphasizing the complexities of international trade policies in mitigating emissions. Li et al. (2023) highlight that despite efficiency gains along global supply chains, changes in global food consumption patterns have contributed to increased GHG emissions, underscoring the need for sustainable trade practices to mitigate environmental impacts.

Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor 2024

The 2024 AATM investigates critical issues related to African agricultural trade. As in previous editions of the report, we have developed a database that corrects discrepancies in trade flow values, as reported by importing and exporting countries, as the basis for analyzing Africa’s international, domestic, and regional economic community (REC) trade. Given the pressing need to address climate change and curb greenhouse gas emissions, this year’s AATM takes an in-depth look at the relationship between climate change, water use, and emissions and African agricultural trade.

Impact of climate change on trade in Africa

The literature on the complex relationship between trade and climate change is rich. While trade can affect climate change through dirty production techniques or carbon emissions due to transport (Brenton and Chemutai 2021), climate change can affect trade through its effect on agricultural productivity (Ben Zaied and Cheikh 2015; Chandio et al. 2020), production, and thus countries’ specialization (Gouel and Laborde 2021), primarily due to high temperatures and water stress (Hamududu and Ngoma 2020). As Africa is a net importer of agricultural products, the consequence is that climate change will likely affect food security in the medium and long term. Against this background, the objective of this chapter is twofold. First, we examine the extent to which African countries are exposed to climate change relative to other regions of the world. Second, we show how Africa’s comparative advantages can be altered with rising temperatures and water stress. Our main findings show that climate change effects in Africa are more pronounced than in other regions, reflected in the increase in extreme weather events associated with rising temperatures and greater variability in precipitation. These developments are likely to increase the number of food insecure people. Furthermore, we identify how climate change can affect African countries’ specialization based on products’ sensitivity to changes in temperature and their dependence on water. We show that several crops (such as leguminous vegetables, edible nuts and coconuts, groundnuts, oilseeds, and oleaginous fruits) will be affected by climate change. Other crops’ production may be less affected, but their future expansion may be limited by climate change–related factors.

Overview and Recent Challenges [In Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor 2024]

The Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM) is an annual flagship publication of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and AKADEMIYA2063. This seventh edition provides an overview of short- and long-term trends and drivers behind Africa’s global trade, intra-African trade, and trade within Africa’s regional economic communities (RECs), with a focus on the nexus of trade and climate change. The six chapters of this 2024 AATM report are as follows. This first chapter offers an overview of the food security concerns in African countries in the wake of the global crisis related to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine war, and the global resurgence of protectionist policies. It examines trade through a food security lens, including availability, utilization, accessibility, and stability of food supplies, as well as the effects of tariffs, nontariff measures (NTMs), and deep trade agreements on food security in Africa. Special attention is paid to fertilizers, given the importance of these inputs for agricultural productivity and food security. As a result of Africa’s heavy dependence on fertilizer imports, farmers, and particularly smallholders, were severely challenged in the recent crisis when spikes in international fertilizer prices were compounded by high rates of domestic inflation.

Fruit and vegetable value chains in Africa

The patterns of Africa’s participation in fruit and vegetable value chains (FVVCs) clearly reflect the continent’s colonial past. The restructuring of African exports around a few commodities to serve European markets during the colonial period largely undermined the farming of local food crops, including indigenous fruits and vegetables. Postcolonial governments focused on cash crops as the main source of foreign exchange earnings, reinforcing the status quo. However, the mid-1980s witnessed a major shift in global demand away from traditional cash crops and toward high-value products, including fruits and vegetables. This shift was an opportunity for developing countries, including those in Africa, to diversify their exports and reduce their vulnerability to global commodity price fluctuations. Participation in FVVCs can also have positive impacts on employment creation, income mobility, and poverty reduction. Yet, Africa’s participation in FVVCs is undermined by a number of structural challenges, some of which are typical of FVVCs, and some related to long-standing issues facing African economies in general, and the agriculture sector in particular.

Agricultural trade integration in ECOWAS

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is a regional economic community (REC) composed of 15 member states and an associate country. Created in 1975 in Abuja, ECOWAS was established to pursue stability and regional integration in Africa and, over time, has expanded its mandate to include political dimensions. It is one of the largest RECs in Africa, covering a physical area of 5.1 million square kilometers with an estimated population of 424.3 million people as of 2022. The region’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 was estimated at US$758 billion, which represents a quarter of Africa’s GDP (World Bank 2024). As the ECOWAS region pursues a process of structural transformation, the region’s economy has shifted toward industry and services, and the share of agriculture in GDP in ECOWAS countries has been declining, as in many developing countries (Laborde et al. 2018). However, the agriculture sector still represents 26 percent of GDP2 on average across the region, although with a high degree of heterogeneity: the share of agriculture in total GDP ranges from 5 percent in Cabo Verde to 60 percent in Sierra Leone. The REC is a heterogenous bloc that encompasses economic and demographic giants like Nigeria and small states like Cabo Verde and Gambia. It also includes landlocked countries (Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger), members with access to the sea (Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone), and island states (Cabo Verde). ECOWAS is often cited as a successful example of regional integration in Africa. Indeed, since its beginning, the integration process has moved forward continuously with key successes such as the free movement of people, which has been in effect since 1979. Among the eight RECs recognized by the African Union, ECOWAS ranks fifth for trade integration and first in terms of the free movement of people, according to the Regional Integration Index built by the United Nations’ Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA). However, when it comes to movement of goods, results are mixed, and serious challenges remain despite the formal processes of liberalization adopted by member states. The frictions affecting the free movement of goods are problematic, particularly for agricultural products, given that, in an environment marked by global crisis (notably the pandemic of COVID-19 in 2020 and the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war), regional trade could mitigate the negative impacts and stabilize domestic markets. Furthermore, recent political tensions, marked by the intention of three member states (Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger) to withdraw from the organization, raise questions about the REC’s sustainability. This chapter assesses the level of agricultural trade integration in the ECOWAS area, progress made, and the challenges ahead. In the next section, we provide the historical background, reviewing early regional integration initiatives in Africa and the main steps in the construction of ECOWAS. The following section assesses trade costs within ECOWAS, including tariffs, nontariff measures, and logistics performance, with a special focus on costs arising from currency diversity as an impediment to trade. We then examine intraregional trade flows, including informal cross-border trade, which represents the bulk of these flows. Before concluding, the chapter presents key achievements and main challenges to greater integration.

Intra-African trade in virtual water: Trends and drivers

Increasing intra-African trade is expected to have a wide range of benefits, including contributing to increased economic growth, employment, and food security. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), launched in 2021, will have potentially significant impacts on economic output and incomes when fully implemented. A recent study suggests that AfCFTA implementation will drive substantial employment growth, generating more than 7 million new jobs in manufacturing, public services, trade, and other services (World Bank 2020). Bouët, Laborde, and Traoré (2022) estimate that an ambitious implementation of the AfCFTA, which eliminates tariffs and significantly reduces nontariff measures, would increase Africa’s gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.2 percent compared to baseline trends in the absence of the AfCFTA by 2035. Increased intra-African trade in agriculture could also contribute significantly to improving food security and nutrition, including by increasing dietary diversity, promoting food price stability, and boosting the availability of key micronutrients (Bonuedi, Kamasa, and Opeku 2020; Makochekanwa and Matchaya 2019; Odjo and Badiane 2018; Olivetti et al. 2023). A further potential benefit of increased intra-African trade is its contribution to environmental sustainability and efficient use of scarce natural resources. The impacts of trade on the environment are complex. Although trade expends resources and contributes to greenhouse gas emissions, it could also contribute to sustainable resource use if it allows countries to specialize in production patterns according to their resource endowments and comparative advantage (Odjo, Traoré, and Zaki 2023). In the context of climate variability and water scarcity, trade could potentially help to minimize the negative impacts by moving commodities from areas with high water availability to water-scarce areas (Matchaya, Garcia, and Traoré 2023). This chapter reviews overall trends in intra-African agricultural trade and, to assess the contribution of this trade to sustainability, takes a close look at its potential to address issues of water scarcity and contribute to efficient use of water resources. The chapter examines intra African agricultural trade in virtual water—that is, the water content embedded in trade flows of agricultural products. Trade is most commonly measured in value terms, but the monetary value of a product does not always reflect the resources used to produce it. Trade flows expressed as virtual water trade (VWT) reflect both the specific water requirements of different crops and the varying crop yields obtained in different countries. Examining intra-African trade in virtual water terms and identifying the impact of countries’ resource endowments and water productivity levels on VWT helps us to assess the contribution of intra-African trade to addressing water stress and scarcity in African countries and contributing to more efficient water use.

Transforming agricultural support for a sustainable future: A Latin America and Caribbean view

Addressing the complex challenges facing agricultural and food systems requires a detailed and integrated approach that ensures food security, enhances nutrition, protects environmental sustainability, and supports livelihoods. Governments are crucial in guiding this transformation through a range of policy tools, including regulatory measures, market-based mechanisms, price adjustments that reflect true production costs, and the reassessment of agricultural subsidies. Achieving comprehensive solutions to these challenges across the domains of food security, nutrition, and sustainable development hinges on reforming domestic agricultural support.

Navigating the trade landscape: A Latin American perspective building on the WTO 13th ministerial conference

This publication-a joint effort by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA)-is being released in the context of growing changes and fragmentation in global economic and trade relationships. Countries are increasingly adopting protectionist measures in response to recent crises and the decreased competitiveness of value chains, due to rising production, marketing and transportation costs. The complex multilateral trade system and the urgent need to implement concrete actions in this area are prompting countries to work towards the adoption of new standards that aim to protect and preserve the environment but could also become barriers to trade that impose a significant economic and social cost on other countries. The countries of the Americas must continue to support efforts to strengthen the multilateral trade system, ensuring that it is open, transparent and science-based, as well as to effectively participate in discussion forums such as the ministerial conferences of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Amidst this scenario, international trade plays a vital role in transforming food systems, by interconnecting them and contributing to creating a more sustainable global food system. In recent years, the growth of production and exports has converted Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) into the largest net food exporting region in the world. On average, agrifood exports from the region in 2021-2023 accounted for 17% of global agrifood exports, representing one fourth of total exports from the region. During that period, LAC agrifood exports grew by 7.6%. Yet, it bears mentioning that, despite its important role, the region has its share of challenges. During 2023, 85% of LAC agrifood exports were directed at external markets and 53% of the value of exported agrifood exports was concentrated among only 10 products. This demonstrates the region’s significant vulnerability and is undoubtedly a challenge that must be addressed. This document is an inter-institutional effort to share ideas and reflections on the main issues to be tackled building on the 13th WTO Ministerial Conference. We hope that it will serve as input in strengthening the participation of the countries of the Americas in WTO multilateral negotiations, while also highlighting the key role of agricultural trade in agrifood system transformation.

Geopolitical changes and their implications for agricultural trade negotiations

The dissolution of the Soviet Union (USSR) in the 1990s marked a significant geopolitical shift, resulting in the clear and undisputed preeminence of the United States (USA) in global affairs. This new dominance was bolstered by the support of its closest allies, primarily the European Union (EU), Japan, Australia, and a few others. In the wake of this geopolitical shift, a new phase of global economic interdependence emerged characterized by a growing reliance on trade and the development of global value chains, which connected production processes across multiple countries. This collaborative approach to production rapidly accelerated at the beginning of the 21st century and played a crucial role in the rapid economic development of countries like China and the Republic of Korea.

Global food security concerns and agricultural trade: Building a responsible and effective relationship

Since the Agreement on Agriculture came into effect trade in food has quintupled. The rules agreed under the framework of the World Trade Organization (WTO) allowed developing countries to join external markets and increase their participation to the point that they now account for two thirds of the overall flow of agricultural trade.

Environmental concerns and agricultural trade: Building a responsible and effective relationship

The rapid expansion of goods and services trade over the last several decades has created complex interdependencies between production, consumption, and job creation across economies. At the same time, a range of environmental issues-declining biodiversity, water scarcity, and water pollution, as well as climate change-are becoming more acute and call for strong, immediate, and coordinated international action. Countries and companies around the world are making ambitious climate change mitigation plans to address the climate crisis and to reach the net-zero emissions global target determined at the Paris Agreement. In this context, addressing the nexus between international trade and sustainable development is now more urgent than ever.

Public stockholding programs and the WTO

The issue of how support for public stockholding (PSH) programs is calculated and disciplined within the WTO Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) has been a point of contention since 2012. PSH was largely uncontroversial during the Doha negotiations, where issues like the Special Safeguard Mechanism, domestic support, and cotton contributed to the collapse of negotiations in 2008 (Blustein 2009; Jones 2010; Margulis 2023). However, members who raised administered prices to keep up with surging market prices in the late 2000s found themselves facing potential challenges, as support levels for PSH programs threatened to exceed domestic support commitments under the AoA. At the Ministerial Conference in Bali in 2013 (MC 9), members agreed to an interim mechanism, which granted a “peace clause” to countries with existing PSH programs, effectively shielding them from challenges regarding compliance with domestic support obligations under the WTO Dispute Settlement Mechanism. Under the Bali Decision, members agreed to provide data on how the program operated and to ensure that such programs were not trade distorting or would not affect the food security of other WTO members. PSH remains controversial and members failed to reach agreement on a permanent solution at subsequent Ministerials in Nairobi, Buenos Aires and Geneva. More than 10 years later, failure to reach an agreement on PSH continues to block significant progress in overall negotiations.

Price volatility, export restrictions and the need for transparency

In this chapter, we explore how the WTO has struggled to fulfill its mission of advancing negotiations post the Uruguay Round. As export restrictions were not prioritized during the creation of GATT and the establishment of the WTO, this led to the utilization of export restrictions by countries, particularly in an unstable context, further exacerbating volatility in agricultural commodities. Moreover, as a result of an insufficient WTO notification system, countries have failed to promptly notify all measures. Furthermore, due to the paralysis of the Dispute Settlement Body, the WTO has lost its enforcement capacity, reducing the incentive for countries to engage in discussions within that forum, even when it is necessary to enhance transparency levels that provide greater certainty to dynamic and stressed markets, which is crucial for driving global food security and ensuring efficient allocation.

Agriculture negotiations priorities and sustainable development at the WTO

During a meeting of the WTO Committee on Agriculture in Special Session (CoASS) in June 2023, agricultural negotiators made new submissions on domestic support and export restrictions. Submissions on domestic support were made by the African Group, the Cairns Group -a coalition of developed and developing agricultural exporting economies-, and Costa Rica. The United Kingdom also submitted an analytical paper on export restrictions, making the case for WTO members to pursue more focused discussions on the food security impact of export restrictions on agricultural products, based on data and members’ experiences.

Proposed pathways for moving forward

In Chapter I, the introduction of this book, we present a succinct description of the many difficulties that the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its member countries have encountered over the last decade in their attempts to advance in negotiations toward agreements that could contribute to more open and transparent global trade and the discussions taking place as a result of these difficulties. Starting from this context, the rest of the book aims to contribute to three important themes that have emerged from recent discussions in the WTO. The selection of these themes and the authors’ proposals to solve these themes are influenced by the needs and perspectives of Latin America, specifically the region’s food-exporting countries.

Shaping multilateral trade: The changing institutional landscape

This chapter highlights the fact that many international trade stakeholders agree on the urgent need to strengthen the multilateral trade system and its governing body, the World Trade Organization (WTO). This will mean that the WTO will need to strengthen its intrinsic negotiating function, in particular its ability to achieve results in different processes in the trade agenda, and particularly in the negotiations on agriculture. Indeed, it has failed to completely fulfill its mandate to deepen the reform process, through the adoption of key disciplines in the major negotiation pillars, among them, domestic support, export restrictions and the search for innovative options to fulfill the Bali mandate on the establishment of public entities to promote food security. Moreover, negotiations on other issues that are relevant to a significant group of countries, such as market access, are moving at their own pace. Undoubtedly, tackling major challenges such as food security and climate change will require innovation and the adoption of new technologies and science, in order to increase production and the productivity of agrifood systems. Production volume, quality and sustainability must be improved, without losing sight of the fact that producers are social and economic players in the countries whose economic activity must be profitable. It must also be mentioned that trade and national production play an important role in achieving global food security.

Introduction: Creating context and unveiling crucial issues

The World Trade Organization’s (WTO) 12th Ministerial Conference (MC12) was held in June 2022 in Geneva, Switzerland, after a year-long delay due to COVID-19-related travel restrictions and other disruptions. The same year, a new wave of export restrictions and trade disruptions resulted from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier that year, adding to the disruptions brought on by the pandemic. In many ways, these events were the beginning of geopolitical changes that have now led to a profound transformation in the structure of production and trade, including a growing tendency toward protectionism. MC13 took place in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, in February 2024. Little progress was made in general, but especially in relation to agricultural trade. With respect to the latter, the main discussion centered on reducing trade-distorting agricultural subsidies to ensure fair competition, improving market access for developing countries by lowering tariff and nontariff barriers, addressing export restrictions to ensure stable supplies during food crises, and providing flexibility and support to developing countries through special and differential treatment. Additionally, strategies were discussed to enhance global food security amid challenges such as climate change and conflicts, aiming to create a more equitable and sustainable global agricultural trading system. However, positive outcomes from these discussions were few and not very significant.

Climate smart agriculture and food systems that reduce poverty and hunger

Poor communities that rely on functioning food systems for their livelihoods are highly vulnerable to the devastating effects of climate change while agri-food systems are significant emitters of greenhouse gases. This chapter reviews opportunities to scale up innovative technology and practices to transform food systems and to leverage climate action to reduce poverty, hunger and malnutrition in line with the complementary Sustainable Development Goals. Drawing on country experiences – India, Tajikistan, Lao People’s Democratic Republic and Myanmar – with integrated strategies, it looks at how climate strategies such as nationally determined contributions can be aligned with national agricultural and antipoverty strategies; the need for multisector and multistakeholder action and participation; challenges to joint financing for climate action, poverty and hunger goals; and adapting government and donor systems to co-ordinate implementation.

Demographie

Sustainable cassava: Strategies from production through waste management

Sustainable Cassava: Strategies from Production through Waste Management presents viable approaches to promote sustainability in this globally important crop, enabling future generations to benefit. Presented in three parts, the first addresses cassava diversity and distribution, sustainable production and cultivation practices, and root processing innovations of the crop. Cassava trade policies and economic value chains, food safety and use of cassava, and agro-industrial cassava products are addressed in the second part. The third part focuses on bioeconomy aspects, cassava waste quality assessment, toxicology, sanitary practices, environmental risk assessment as well as sustainable management strategies for cassava waste using biotechnological and industrial advances. Addressing the need for a unified and standardized approach for the trade, management, and utilization of cassava genetic resources, finished products, and cassava processing wastes, the book also explores policy and governance structure for addressing environmental and economic issues emanating from their use.

Food environments: Improving their healthfulness

The food environment is the setting in which people choose what to eat, where they buy those foods, and where, when, and how they eat. This chapter examines some of the key challenges and opportunities for food environments amid the rapid transitions occurring in low- and middle-income countries. It presents examples of evidence-based food environment policies and actions that are being implemented to promote diet quality in a diverse range of countries. The conclusions reflect on potential policies for improving diets through changes in food environments, and discuss actions needed to move forward in strengthening the healthfulness of food environments.

Diets and nutrition: The potential of a food systems approach

As priorities in nutrition research and practice have evolved over time, food systems have increasingly become the organizing principle for work on nutrition and diets, with “food systems for sustainable healthy diets” emerging as the latest paradigm in nutrition. This chapter summarizes how learning from decades of work on the linkages between agriculture and nutrition paved the way to adopting the new food systems for sustainable healthy diets framework, and reflects on the emerging challenges and opportunities that arise for the nutrition community as we navigate this new global agenda.

Improved governance: Creating supportive environments for diet and nutrition policies

Most policy interventions to improve diet quality and nutrition require sound governance to be successful. Governance encompasses the interrelationships between formal institutions and informal modes of power, across different geographic scales, and among state and non-state actors. This chapter examines how multilevel and multistakeholder governance can be strengthened to improve diets, with a focus on enhancing state capacities, navigating corporate influence, and fostering citizen agency. The chapter highlights existing challenges in each of these areas while also discussing approaches that have potential to improve the governance environment at national and local scales.

Diet affordability: Understanding the high cost of healthy diets

As new metrics of healthy diet affordability have been developed in the past five years, it is estimated that between 2 and 3 billion people worldwide — mostly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) — cannot afford a healthy diet. The implications for human nutrition are striking: affordability is a binding constraint to achieving a healthy diet in the world’s poorest countries. This chapter poses several questions to initiate strategic thinking on possible responses to this challenge and recommends actions to support shifts toward healthy diets in LMICs.

Animal-source foods: Their role in sustainable healthy diets

As part of the rapid evolution of diets in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), consumption of animal-source foods (ASFs) has increased sharply in recent decades. This chapter examines ASFs as part of a sustainable healthy diet by exploring the beneficial role of ASFs in providing essential micronutrients in some age cohorts and populations in LMICs, the potential negative health impacts, and the environmental impacts associated with livestock production. It concludes with recommendations for ASF consumption, including policies and interventions for reducing excess consumption and promoting consumption where ASFs could play a larger role in sustainable healthy diets.

Demand-side approaches: Supporting healthier food choices

Understanding individual food choices and their net aggregate — which constitutes demand — is essential for any effort to reshape food systems to achieve broad nutrition and sustainability goals. This chapter presents an overview of food choice and consumer food demand in complex food systems, provides a summary of evidence for demand-side approaches to improve the healthfulness of diets, and identifies key areas where demand-side approaches can foster healthier food choices to achieve optimal health and nutrition.

Advancing nutrition: Food system policies and actions for healthy diets

Hunger, food insecurity, and unhealthy diets underpin many critical public health challenges, including all forms of malnutrition and diet-related noncommunicable diseases. These health outcomes, in turn, have short- and long-term impacts on the well-being and productivity of human populations worldwide. Amid these complex, interconnected challenges, the global focus on how to leverage food systems for nutrition has shifted toward sustainable healthy diets that promote well-being for both people and the planet. This chapter provides an overview of the thematic chapters of the 2024 Global Food Policy Report, which look at food demand and affordability, food environments, plant- and animal-source foods, and governance for sustainable healthy diets.

Global food policy report 2024: Food systems for healthy diets and nutrition

Food systems and diets underpin many critical challenges to public health and environmental sustainability, including malnutrition, noncommunicable diseases, and climate change, but sustainable healthy diets have the unique potential to reshape the future for both human and planetary well-being. The 2024 Global Food Policy Report draws on recent evidence to examine the role of food systems in driving nutrition outcomes and opportunities for transforming food systems to ensure healthy diets for all. Chapters by IFPRI researchers and partners evaluate proven and innovative ways to sustainably improve diet quality and reduce malnutrition, including ways to make healthy diets more affordable, accessible, and desirable, how to improve food environments, the role of both agricultural crops and animal-source foods, and governance for better diets and nutrition, all with a major focus on the most vulnerable populations in low- and middle-income countries. Regional sections explore the diverse challenges countries face and promising policy responses for transforming food systems for sustainable healthy diets. For information on the launch event, go to https://www.ifpri.org/event/improving-diets-and-nutrition-through-food-systems-what-will-it-take To see more on this report and past reports, go to https://gfpr.ifpri.info

Regional developments [in 2024 Global Food Policy Report]

The regional section of the 2024 Global Food Policy Report examines the evolving problem of malnutrition—including undernutrition, micronutrient deficiencies, and overweight and obesity—in low- and middle-income countries across the world’s major regions. Policy interventions are highlighted that address the particular challenges and opportunities in each region, with recommendations that aim to transform food systems to make healthier, more diverse, and more sustainable diets available, affordable, accessible, and desirable for everyone, including the most vulnerable. Africa: Diverse diet and nutrition conditions in Africa call for targeted strategies to increase the supply, affordability, and consumption of healthy foods, especially for the most vulnerable. Addressing the high burden of micronutrient deficiencies and undernutrition in the region will require lever¬aging local, national, regional, and continental food systems to increase the supply and reduce the cost of nutritious foods. This regional section discusses the importance of contextualizing evidence-based multisectoral policy and program approaches, and strengthening people’s resilience and capacity to cope with global threats posed by climate change, conflicts, and other shocks to support a shift to sustainable healthy diets. Middle East and North Africa: To achieve sustainable healthy diets in the Middle East and North Africa, multifaceted policy approaches are needed to boost the resilience of food systems to frequent shocks, which raise food prices and affect diet quality. National policy responses need to consider the region’s double burden of malnutrition along with other vulnerabilities, including climate change, water scarcity, and conflict, as well as more effective targeting of social protection for the most vulnerable groups, and reform of food subsidies to improve diets. Central Asia: Food systems in Central Asia face serious challenges related to diet quality and nutrition. Obstacles include the high cost of a healthy diet, inadequate nutrition knowledge, unhealthy consumption habits, and domestic and regional policies. This regional section discusses the additional impact of climate change, unstable commodity markets, and a heavy reliance on remittances and undiversified trade flows, and highlights several policy interventions that have potential to transform Central Asian food systems. South Asia: In South Asia, where levels of malnutrition are high and rates of diet-related noncommunicable diseases are rising, a shift toward healthier, more sustainable diets will require allocating more resources to promote production and consumption of non-staple foods. This regional section explores “crop-neutral” policies that would allow farmers to respond to market sig¬nals and contribute to diversification in domestic food production that could also reduce poverty. Taxes on foods high in fat, sugar, and salt could help slow the rapid increase in consumption of these foods, and effective front-of-package labeling can promote healthy food choices. East and Southeast Asia: Major challenges to achieving sustainable healthy diets in East and Southeast Asia include poor food standards, lack of consideration of diets and health in trade policies, and changing food demand. This regional section highlights multi-duty policy actions that are needed to address the double burden of malnutrition and its drivers, including rapid urbanization, income growth, and environmental changes. Policy reforms must consider the needs and preferences of diverse populations in the region, support the agency of the most marginalized producers and consumers, and strengthen regional cooperation to make diverse, healthy food available and accessible for all. Latin America and the Caribbean: To achieve sustainable healthy diets, the Latin America and Caribbean region will require both demand- and supply-side solutions, as well as changes in food environments to increase demand for healthy foods. This regional section discusses the complex challenge of identifying the most effective policies and standards to tackle malnutrition and obstacles to accessing and affording healthy diets. It highlights the importance of clearly defining objectives, strengthening social protection programs, addressing the driv¬ers of obesity and overweight, and increasing the availability and affordability of nutritious foods, while maintaining and expanding the region’s crucial role in global food security and nutrition.

Plant-source foods: Leveraging crops for nutrition and healthy diets

Addressing the urgent need for food systems to support sustainable healthy diets will require a major improvement in the availability of and access to affordable, nutritious foods such as fruits, vegetables, and whole grains in low- and middle-income countries, along with increased consumer demand for healthy diets. Plant-source foods are key components of sustainable healthy diets. This chapter examines food crops that could be leveraged to improve health outcomes, describes production systems and their role in providing populations access to highly nutritious crops, and presents examples of evidence-based technologies that improve the nutritional content of crops, especially for vulnerable populations.

Land tenure change and agricultural production and productivity in Uzbekistan

Sustainable Development Goal 1: Ending poverty

What is food security?

Epilogue: The significant role of public policy analysis and evidence in informing policy change and informing our future

Approaches to population estimations and their use in food policy analysis in urban settings

Approaches to analysing labour productivity in agriculture and food systems

Approaches to assessing malnutrition and its impact on food security

Approaches to assessing the impact of poor sanitation on child nutrition

Assessing the economics of fuel for food: Approaches to assessment of time allocations for household chores and roles

Sustainable Development Goal 3: Good health and well-being

Handbook on public policy and food security

The Handbook on Public Policy and Food Security provides multi-disciplinary insight into food security analysis across the seventeen Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). As food security is an essential outcome and a part of sustainable and healthy food systems, this Handbook addresses the urgent need to provide a comprehensive overview of the field’s current developments.

Introduction to public policy and food security

With less than a decade to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030, food insecurity, hunger and malnutrition continue to threaten far too many lives worldwide. Around 2.3 billion people worldwide were moderately or severely food insecure in 2021 (Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), et al., 2022). Just under 12 per cent of the global population faced food insecurity at severe levels in 2021, with between 702 and 828 million people affected by hunger (FAO et al., 2022). According to the FAO et al. (2022), the prevalence of undernourishment jumped from 8.0 per cent in 2019 to 9.3 per cent in 2020, but rose more slowly in 2021 to reach 9.8 per cent of the world’s population. Progress towards the SDGs is threatened by ongoing and developing crises and challenges affecting global food availability and distribution as well as a mix of complex economic, political and social access to food.

Policies and policy instruments to address food security in Asian developing and developed economies

Reaching smallholder women with information services and resilience strategies to respond to climate change

The project Reaching Smallholder Women with Information Services and Resilience Strategies to Respond to Climate Change aimed to increase the climate resilience of poor women and men farmers in Africa south of the Sahara and South Asia — especially those in Kenya, Uganda, and India — by overcoming the gendered information gap on accessing climate-smart agricultural (CSA) approaches. The project did this through piloting participatory video-based extension on CSA approaches with more than 30,000 farmers in the three countries. The notes in this collection summarize the key methods and findings from the study. It is hoped that they will inspire similar projects and programs that together will help eliminate the gap between rural men and women in resources, agency, and achievement once and for all. This book is a compilation of 12 policy notes. Links can be found in the ‘Policy Notes’ file available for download on this page.

Solving global nutrition and dietary challenges: More than proteins

The global focus on protein transition must not detract attention from other nutritional and dietary challenges that are at least as important, specifically the high prevalence of vitamin and mineral deficiencies in low-and middle-income countries. Unlike in many high-income countries, low- and middle-income countries may benefit from increased access to and consumption of animal-sourced foods. Policymakers should set locally tailored dietary guidelines and look beyond proteins to the food system as a whole.

Food systems transformation in Kenya: Lessons from the past and policy options for the future

The new Kenyan government faces a complex domestic and global environment, and it is widely expected to address key food and agricultural challenges with a new set of policies and programs. This policy brief presents key recommendations from a forthcoming book, Food Systems Transformation in Kenya: Lessons from the Past and Policy Options for the Future, which provides research-based “food for thought and action” to support the Kenyan government’s efforts to improve food security.

Transforming food systems through risk-contingent credit in rural Africa: Development, experimentation, and evaluation

Throughout Africa, climate change is posing severe challenges to agricultural production and food security. Agricultural risks—particularly those associated with drought—are a major cause of low agricultural productivity in most African countries, including Kenya. According to the Government of Kenya, four consecutive years (2008–2011) of drought caused US$12.1 billion in losses, accounting for about 8 percent of GDP, including losses in assets and disruptions to the economy across sectors (Kenya, Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries 2014). Currently, Kenya is in the middle of an acute drought following three consecutive poor rainy seasons. This has led to a drop in crop production nationally of about 70 percent, which has disproportionately exposed the communities of arid and semi-arid lands to hunger and malnutrition.

Mechanization of agricultural production in Kenya: Current state and future outlook

Agricultural mechanization is the use of machinery, equipment, and implements—rather than human or animal power—to carry out agricultural practices. When the use of mechanization is sufficiently high, it can help improve the overall efficiency of food systems, reduce the costs of producing outputs and providing services, enhance economies of scale, and raise labor productivity and incomes (FAO and AUC 2018; Diao, Takeshima, and Zhang 2020). While mechanized practices are traditionally thought of in terms of tilling, seed drilling, and spraying, in recent years mechanization has been considered to include broader applications along the food system, such as irrigation, postharvest cleaning of harvests, cold storage, value addition, and processing.

Gender and food systems in Kenya: A case study of the poultry value chain in eastern Kenya

Women are key stakeholders in sustainable and resilient food systems, given their roles as primary food producers and household caretakers (Visser and Wangu 2021). Understanding how gendered roles affect food security and women’s well-being is essential for pursuing sustainable development (Angel-Urdinola and Wodon 2010; Doss, Meinzen-Dick, and Quisumbing 2018; Meinzen-Dick et al. 2019). Their participation in agriculture is documented widely, but there is a need for more gendered data on the roles of men and women in different contexts and agricultural value chains, including livestock value chains (Micere Njuki et al. 2016; Richardson 2018; Doss and Rubin 2021; Njuki et al. 2021). This file also includes the introduction to Part Five.

Assessing the resilience of Kenya’s food system: A production approach

A food system includes all elements (environment, people, inputs, processes, infrastructures, institutions, etc.) and activities that relate to the production, processing, distribution, preparation, and consumption of food, and the outputs of these activities, including socioeconomic and environmental outcomes (HLPE 2017). Thus, a food system links society and nature (Blesh and Wittman 2015). Resilience is “the ability of people, households, communities, countries and systems to mitigate, adapt to, and recover from shocks and stresses in a manner that reduces chronic vulnerability and facilitates inclusive growth” (USAID 2018). Applied to food systems, resilience is defined by the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) as the ability to withstand major shocks and stressors emanating from climate/weather, conflict, disease, external economic shocks, and other sources, which, if not prevented or mitigated, would delay, or limit economic progress, transformation, prosperity, and self-reliance (AGRA 2021). In this sense, resilience of a food system may be considered a system property that plays a critical role in its sustainability (Jacobi et al. 2018), thus ensuring sustained food security. This chapter adopts this definition with the objective of assessing the resilience of Kenya’s food system and its components using systemwide metrics. Specifically, we use a production approach based on input–output linkages. This file also includes the introduction to Part Four.

Introduction [in Food systems transformation in Kenya: Lessons from the past and policy options for the future]

The whole world has experienced a series of global and local crises since 2019, and Kenya has been no exception. Before the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, poverty and food poverty rates in the country had been declining steadily, falling from 52.3 percent to 36.1 percent and from 38.3 percent to 26.7 percent, respectively, between 1997 and 2016 (KNBS 2007, 2018). Income inequality also declined in the period from 1994 to 2015/16 (KNBS 2020). Estimates suggest that, since then, progress in poverty reduction has reversed, as a result of COVID-19 (Nafula et al. 2020), and that the impacts of the Ukraine and global crises have further increased poverty levels and the number of people unable to afford a healthy diet (Breisinger et al. 2022). In addition, ongoing droughts in the arid and semiarid areas of Kenya meant that an estimated 3.5 million people were in need of assistance in May 2022 (UNICEF 2022).

Digital innovations and agricultural transformation in Africa: Lessons from Kenya

Digital innovation is a key feature in the global and national discourse on food systems transformation. Efforts to better integrate food systems—defined here as the constellation of actors and their activities originating from agriculture, livestock, forestry, or fisheries, as well as the broader economic, societal, and natural environments in which they operate, including the production, aggregation, processing, distribution, consumption, and disposal of food products (Dwivedi et al. 2017; FAO 2018; Njuki et al. 2021)—will depend partly on how digital technologies can be used to bolster engagement, coordination, and innovation among a wider and more inclusive set of actors, including marginalized and vulnerable groups (Benfica et al. 2021).

Youth engagement in agriculture and food systems transformation in Kenya

Food systems incorporate many actors at different intersecting levels and spaces. Young people1 constitute one of the most significant groups of these actors and contribute significantly to food systems in a variety of ways, from agricultural production and processing to food-related retail services, through formal and informal employment, paid and unpaid labor, and self employment. In addition to engaging through work and livelihoods, young people are involved in research, conservation, and knowledge acquisition and transmission. They also participate in consumer pressure groups and social movements raising awareness on the need for food system transformation and demanding climate change action. Through all these contributions, young people support achievement of the Sustainable Development Goal targets such as those on food security, economic growth, poverty reduction, and environ mental sustainability (HLPE 2021; FAO and AUC 2022).

A way forward: Policy-driven transformation

This book has adopted a food systems framework as a new way of conceptualizing and designing food policies and research. Looking beyond agriculture and value chains makes it possible not only to turn food systems into a driver of economic transformation but also to better include health, productivity, resilience, inclusivity, and sustainability as integral parts of system transformation. Such a fresh approach is urgently needed in light of limited development progress over the past years in Kenya and other countries. The share of manufacturing—traditionally a driver of economic transformation—in total output remains low; maize yields have been stagnating for the past 20 years; and poverty and food insecurity are on the rise again (Nafula et al. 2020; FAOSTAT 2022). In addition to structural challenges, growing challenges and vulnerabilities such as the threat of pandemics, commodity price crises, climate change, and conflicts, call for a new development and food policy paradigm (Breisinger et al. 2022; UNICEF 2022). At the same time, such a fresh approach can also help in harnessing the new opportunities that come with digitalization and with (policy) lessons from other countries that can be adapted to the Kenyan context.

Toward sustainable transformation through postharvest management: Lessons from Kenya’s mango value chain

Management of postharvest food loss and waste (FLW) is an important strategy in efforts to sustainably meet the food and nutrition needs of the world’s growing population. Sustainable food systems are critical to achieving food security and nutrition for all, now and in the future. Food systems cannot be sustainable when a large proportion of the food produced using limited resources is lost or wasted in the supply chain. At the global level, it is estimated that poor postharvest management means this is the case for 30 percent of the food produced for human consumption (FAO 2011, 2019). The figure for Kenya is similar (Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Cooperatives 2018). The 2021 Food Waste Index Report (UNEP 2021) indicates that every Kenyan wastes about 100 kg of food every year, which adds up to 5.2 million metric tons1 per year, excluding food loss that happens upstream, from production to retail. In monetary terms, wasteful consumption accounts for slightly over US$500 million annually (Mbatia 2021). FLW exacerbates food insecurity and has negative impacts on the environment through waste of precious land, water, farm inputs, and energy used in producing food that is not consumed. In addition, postharvest losses, caused by poor storage conditions, reduce income to farmers and contribute to higher food prices.

An enabling environment for the national flour blending policy: A food systems analysis

A national flour blending policy is about to be implemented in Kenya. This requires maize flour (the country’s main staple) to be blended with at least 10 percent of either one or a composite of traditional crops, such as sorghum and millet.1 The blending ratio is expected to increase gradually, with the goal of ultimately reaching 30 percent. The policy envisages achieving several goals. The first is to improve the nutritional quality of maize flour: sorghum and millet (and other candidate blending crops) have micronutrient characteristics that are absent in maize. The second is to promote more climate-tolerant crops and technologies: sorghum and millet can be grown in less favorable arid and semiarid lands (ASALs), in the very conditions that many farmers face in Kenya. This is particularly important given that maize is more susceptible than other staple crops to climate change. The third is to reduce the country’s overreliance on imported maize and concerns about its food sovereignty. This file includes the introduction to Part Six.

Climate insurance: Opportunities for improving agricultural risk management in Kenya

Climate change represents a major challenge to food systems. It is associated not only with rising average temperatures but also with less predictable weather and changes in humidity, with severe consequences for agricultural production, input markets, aggregation, processing, distribution, and consumption. Negative impacts on food production can raise consumer prices, potentially leading to social unrest and conflict; increased temperatures and changes in humidity require stronger cold chains and improved storage facilities to avoid postharvest damage (de Brauw and Pacillo 2022). This chapter highlights several innovations in climate insurance that were developed and tested in Kenya with the aim of improving smallholder farmers’ ability to manage the production risks associated with climate change.

Agricultural productivity in Kenya: 2000-2020

Agriculture is key to economic growth and poverty reduction in Kenya as it plays a pivotal role in employment creation, food security, exports, and sustainable development. In 2019, it directly contributed 22.7 percent of GDP, accounted for 20.9 percent of total exports, and generated 43.3 percent of employment (Chapter 2). The sector is thus not only an important driver of Kenya’s economy but also the means of livelihood for many Kenyan people. Given the economic and social importance of agriculture in Kenya, policies have revolved around the main goal of increasing productivity and incomes, especially for smallholders, to enhance food security and equity, with an emphasis on production intensification, commercialization, and environmental sustainability (Alila and Atieno 2006). In this context, the declining perfor mance of the sector measured in terms of its growth has been a major concern for policymakers. This file includes the introduction to Part Three.

Agricultural inputs in Kenya: Demand, supply, and the policy environment

Agricultural inputs, including fertilizers, seeds, breeding stock, crop protection chemicals, machinery, irrigation, and knowledge, are key to innovation and productivity improvement, and are the backbone of any agricultural revolution. They are an integral part of the food supply chain, which comprises the production and distribution of food, and as such a key component of the food system (HLPE 2017). The food supply chain involves various actors at different stages of the chain but this chapter focuses only on agricultural inputs, including both farm inputs and agricultural advisory services.

Kenya’s agrifood system: Overview and drivers of transformation

The 2010s were a decade of strong economic development in Kenya. Gross domestic product (GDP)—an indicator of the economy’s size—expanded by an average of 5 percent per year (KNBS 2022). This exceeded population growth and helped raise household incomes, leading to a decline in poverty rates and, more importantly, in the number of poor people, for the first time in at least three decades (World Bank 2022). Agriculture played an important role in this. The sector grew alongside the rest of the economy, despite facing many challenges, including climate variability (Ochieng et al. 2020), weak rural infrastructure (Benin and Odjo 2018), shrinking farm sizes (Jayne et al. 2016), and inaccessibility of farm inputs combined with poor agronomic management (Worku et al. 2020). Agriculture, as part of the broader food system, also contributed to growth in downstream or off-farm sectors and helped cushion the economic damage resulting from COVID-19 in 2020 (Pauw, Smart, and Thurlow 2021). This file includes the introduction to Part One.

Intensification of the maize-based farming: What happened to the maize green revolution?