IFPRI Publications: Reports

Resilient Cities urban nutrition profile: Ethiopia

Key Messages -Undernutrition has declined over time, but stunting still affects 40 percent of rural children and 25 percent of urban children. -Micronutrient deficiencies—especially deficiencies in folate, zinc and Vitamin D—are a critical concern, particularly for urban women and girls. -Dietary quality is low in both rural and urban areas: while urban diets are moderately more diverse than rural ones, rising consumption of unhealthy foods is more of a concern than in rural areas at this time. -The cost of consuming a healthy diet in Ethiopia increased from US $2.83 to $3.72 from 2017—2022, and over half of the population is currently unable to afford a healthy diet. -Concurrent conflict and climate shocks are causing acute nutritional needs in some regions. Humanitarian food aid is key to reducing food insecurity and should be provided to households without access to land who rely on income for food purchases, such as those in urban areas. -Overweight and obesity are still uncommon among young children but are increasing rapidly among urban women. In urban areas, 20 percent of women are overweight, compared to 4 percent in rural areas. The rise in urban overweight is driven by lifestyle changes associated with urbanization and unhealthy food environments, which are associated with poor quality diets and reduced physical activity. -Overnutrition and diet-related noncommunicable diseases are especially prevalent in Addis Ababa. -Food safety is a challenge, and evidence is lacking on how to improve vendor safety knowledge and practices to protect consumer health. -National social protection programs often fail to reach the urban poor and lack explicit nutrition interventions in urban areas. -There is a need to design and test urban nutrition interventions that address both over and undernutrition (such as double-duty actions) in urban populations.

The socioeconomic impact of armed conflict on Sudanese urban households: Evidence from a National Urban Household Survey

Eighteen months of war have deeply affected urban households in Sudan: 31 percent have been displaced, full-time employment has plummeted by half, over 70 percent of the urban households in Sudan had all or some of school-aged kids stop attending school, and only one out of seven urban households can access full health services—concluded a new joint study from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), launched today. “The Socioeconomic Impact of Armed Conflict on Sudanese Urban Households” study provides a comprehensive assessment of how the ongoing conflict affects urban households in Sudan. With two-thirds of the fighting concentrated in cities of over 100,000 people, understanding impacts of the war on urban livelihoods is crucial for addressing both immediate economic challenges and long-term development obstacles. The study is based on analyses of a comprehensive survey of urban households across the country that both organizations conducted between May 2024 and July 2024, including 3,000 households.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, October 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi to provide clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. All prices are reported in Malawi Kwacha (K). Highlights • Retail prices of maize increased by 4 percent in October. • Maize prices were lowest in the Northern region and highest in the Southern region. • ADMARC sales were reported in 5 of the 26 markets monitored by IFPRI. • ADMARC purchases were reported in 4 markets. • Retail prices of maize in Malawi were lower than most neighboring countries at the market exchange rate.

Solar dryer: Laboratory experiment and initial evaluation of the solar-dried tomatoes and peppers

Nigeria’s Kano State is a major vegetable growing area. Commonly grown vegetables are tomatoes, peppers, onions, carrots, and leafy greens. These vegetables suffer from high post-harvest loss. Smallholder farmers, market and aggregators, actors rely on traditional drying practices such as sun drying during glutting seasons. The dried vegetable market is fast growing. It has been reported that drying vegetables increases the shelf life and favors year-round availability or supply of a vegetable crop to the market. However, these traditional practices are inefficient and unreliable for food safety. Rethinking Food Market and Plant Health Initiatives of CGIAR aim to introduce an energy-efficient, low-cost, and hygienic technology, that is, a solar drying system with support from the Nigeria Stored Product Research Institute’s (NSPRI) to dry vegetable crops in smallholder farmers communities in Kano State. In addition to being relatively faster drying process, the use of a solar dryer provides a more controlled and consistent drying environment, thereby protecting the produce from exposure to dust, insects, and other contaminants, and microbial growth. The controlled environment also helps maintain product quality, nutritional value, and appearance of dried products. As a result, solar drying processes produce good quality products and can be sold at a better price on the market (Aravindh and Sreekumar 2015). The aim of this study is to ascertain the effect of the solar dryer on qualities and safety of the dried tomatoes and peppers.

Peer-to-peer learning on vegetable production and implications for value chain development in Nigeria

The vegetable sector of Kaduna and Kano states in Nigeria is crucial for smallholder farmers’ livelihoods, providing employment opportunities and contributing to good health. However, unfavorable environmental conditions and poor agronomic practices have hindered its development, leaving farming households struggling with food insecurity, nutrient deficiency, and poverty. Furthermore, societal expectations regarding gender roles, religious beliefs, and cultural practices make it more challenging for couples to work together effectively and attain the best possible outcomes for their family. The East-West Seed Knowledge Transfer (EWS-KT) foundation is supporting SHFs’ access to vegetable markets through a one-year training program (across two cropping cycles) and together with Wageningen University and Research (WUR) intends to provide a gender-responsive agricultural extension system. Overall, this research project aims to improve farmers’ vegetable production, reduce the gender gap in agricultural participation and intrahousehold decision-making, and improve smallholder’s livelihoods. This report is based on a household survey covering 2562 respondents from 150 SHF communities in Kaduna and Kano. The baseline survey was a joint effort of Datametrics Associates Ltd. and WUR, consisting of two data collection rounds: the main survey round and supplementary survey round. Together, the surveys cover the different groups part of the study: key farmers, core farmers, other peer farmers, and the spouses of these farmers. The baseline survey provides insight into current agronomic practices, agricultural extension activities, SHF livelihoods, and women empowerment in Kaduna and Kano. Moreover, it assessed to which extent characteristics are balanced across socio-economic characteristics and current outcome indicators irrespective of their assignment to the treatment and control groups. Findings also helped to improve the formulated indicators for the evaluation of the project interventions.

Cooling technologies and long-term efficiency improvement of horticulture market agents: Panel data evidence from solar-powered cold-storage intervention in Nigeria

Modern cooling technologies, including cold storage, have been considered one of the critical tools to address increasingly complex challenges in agrifood systems in developing countries, including poverty, economic growth, food loss and waste, food and nutrition security, and environmental sustainability (e.g., IFPRI 2020; Kashyap & Agarwal 2020). Cold storage can minimize most human pathogens, ensuring enhanced food safety (Uçar & Özçelik 2013; Kopp & Mishra 2022) and contribute to increased consumption of micronutrient-rich horticulture crops (Schreinemachers et al. 2018). Cooling technologies can also improve market functions by enabling higher and more stable prices received by suppliers (Rakshit 2011; Schreinemachers et al. 2018) and reducing losses (Allen & de Brauw 2018). Cooling-chain development has been a significant part of food system transformation outside Africa South of the Sahara (SSA) (IFPRI 2020). Similar technologies may become more broadly relevant in SSA in the near future (Tschirley et al. 2015). Traditionally, the use of cold storage has been constrained by high energy consumption and adverse environmental effects like carbon emissions (Pueyo et al. 2020; Steyn et al. 2016). However, a growing set of potential energy solutions are being proposed and introduced on a pilot basis, including solar power (Takeshima et al. 2023).

Setting the stage for improved drying: A stepping stone to solar dryer

The world population is growing fast, heralding the challenge of feeding over 9.1 billion people with safe food by the year 2050 (Parfitt, Barthel, & Macnaughton, 2010). The amount of food production has increased through efforts made by actors in the agricultural production sector (Bourne, 2014). Food produced globally is sufficient to provide 100% of nutritional requirements of every living human being (Bourne, 2014), but unfortunately, this has not translated to better food security in certain countries in the world, malnutrition has gotten worse in several countries around the world. According to GHI (Global Hunger Index), 64 countries will not reach low hunger, much less zero hunger (SDG2) by 2030, in fact, low hunger status may not be reached globally until 2160 (GHI, 2024).

Off-grid cooling experimental evaluation of solar powered cold storage and evaporative coolant

This study compared the postharvest storage potentials of a solar-powered cool room and an off-grid metal-in-wall evaporative coolant. Temperature drop and relative humidity (RH) increase were used to assess the performance of cooling systems. The metal-in-wall evaporative coolant’s cooling efficiency was measured. Tomato (UTC variety), Orange (Dan Benue variety) and Carrot (Orange Chantenay) were procured from the international fruits market in Duste, Jigawa State, Nigeria. The products were sorted and stored in three different storage conditions: room temperature (RT), solar powered cool room (SCR), and wall-in-wall evaporative coolant. Mass loss, color, firmness, total soluble solids and titratable acids, carotenoids, vitamin C, marketability percentage, and rate of nutrient degradation were among the quality characteristics assessed. The temperature was lowered to 17.24 °C by the metal-in-wall evaporative coolant, which was far lower than the room temperature (29.19 °C). Evaporative coolant’s relative humidity rose from 69.84 to 83.91% while its average cooling efficiency was 60.79%. The average temperature and relative humidity of the solar-powered cool room were 10.45 °C and 86%, respectively. Fruit quality was significantly (p < 0.05) impacted by storage techniques, variations in stored fruits, and storage duration. Compared to the other treatments, the solar-powered cool room preserved the color, mass, firmness, TA, TSS, carotenoids, and vitamin C of all the fruits that were stored there. Fruits kept in a solar-powered cool room had the lowest incidence of nutrient deterioration and the highest percentage of marketability. But in contrast to the room temperature, metal-in-wall evaporative coolant had a slower rate of change in all the evaluated attributes and was able to maintain the freshness of the stored fruits for 18 days. This implied that in remote communities without power, the metal-in-wall evaporative cooler is a substitute method for preserving postharvest quality and extending fruit shelf life.

Impact evaluation of the economic inclusion programme in Kenya: Baseline report for cohort 2

Graduation and economic inclusion programs complement cash or food transfers with multisectoral investments in asset building, income generation, skill training, and access to financial services and markets to strengthen resilience and opportunity for households who are poor (Andrews et al., 2021). Compared to classic social assistance programs that offer regular cash or food transfers to ensure minimum consumption levels, these programs aim to enable beneficiaries to invest in assets and skills that can make them more productive. Following promising results from initial studies on multiple economic Photo Credit: Peter Lowe / CIMMYT and social outcomes (e.g., Banerjee et al., 2015; Bandiera et al., 2017; Banerjee et al., 2021), these graduation and economic inclusion programs are increasingly being taken up by governments to complement their national social assistance programs. In 2019 the Government of Kenya’s (GoK) State Department of Social Protection and Senior Citizen Affairs, Directorate of Social Development, initiated the Kenya Social and Economic Inclusion Programme (KSEIP). The KSEIP is designed to complement and build on the flagship National Safety Net Programme (NSNP) and target those being served by it, moving beyond cash transfers to an integrated Social Protection system to enhance social and economic inclusion services and shock-responsive safety nets for poor and vulnerable households. The KSEIP is expected to contribute towards Kenya’s Vision 2030 and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals.

Changing the equation: Leveraging true cost accounting to accelerate agri-food systems transformation

The global agri-food system, from field to fork, is failing to nourish billions of people properly, is responsible for nearly a third of all greenhouse gas emissions and is a major driver of biodiversity loss. As it currently operates, this system imposes significant hidden costs on the environment, on the workers who produce ‘cheap’ food in dangerous or precarious conditions, consumers, and society as a whole. These hidden costs, or ‘externalities’, include water pollution remediation, social support for underpaid workers, and public health costs related to diet-related diseases, none of which are captured by traditional economic metrics. Externalities are prevalent in all sectors of the economy, not just agri-food systems, and are systematically ignored in conventional accounting and reporting systems. This omission leads to distorted market signals that encourage unsustainable business practices, the consequences of which are borne by society, particularly disadvantaged communities, and will weigh heavily on future generations while the polluters reap financial rewards. Addressing externalities is therefore essential to building an economic system that supports sustainable development.

How did households in Mali cope with covariate shocks between 2018 and 2023? Exploration of a unique dataset

The objective of this analysis is to gain more insight into the coping behavior of households in Mali when facing covariate shocks and stressors of different kinds. To achieve this, we rely on a unique dataset, which consists of eleven waves of cross-sectional household data combined with an extensive list of shock indicators compiled from external sources. Apart from a detailed profiling of both dimensions, this analysis relies on a data mining algorithm to uncover interesting associations between covariate shocks and coping strategies. Among the main findings of this study is the pronounced diversity in shock and coping profiles observed across time and place, which in turn complicates any straightforward identification of common and consistent patterns in household coping behavior. This said, political violence has increased over time; food prices hiked in 2018, 2022 and 2023; rainy seasons were underperforming in 2021 and 2023; extreme weather events reached a peak in 2021; while the Gao region in 2023 suffered from all five shock domains at the same time. While fewer households resorted to coping over time, those who did combined slightly more strategies – which either points to increased inequality or generalized depletion of coping potential. Further, poor and erratic weather conditions appear to be important triggers for households to disinvest in farming and livestock activities, with food secure people being more inclined to resort to emergency coping when shocks prevail. This analysis also very much reveals the need for additional research on the same integrated and enhanced dataset.

How did households in Chad cope with covariate shocks between 2018 and 2023? Exploration of a unique dataset

The objective of this analysis is to gain more insight into the coping behavior of households in Chad when facing covariate shocks and stressors of different kinds. To achieve this, we rely on a unique dataset, which consists of eleven waves of cross-sectional household data combined with an extensive list of shock indicators compiled from external sources. Apart from a detailed profiling of both dimensions, this analysis relies on a data mining algorithm to uncover interesting associations between covariate shocks and coping strategies. Among the main findings of this study is the pronounced diversity in shock and coping profiles observed across time and place, which in turn complicates any straightforward identification of common and consistent patterns in household coping behavior. This said, political violence has increased until 2022 and then fell back; food prices hiked in 2022 and 2023; rainy seasons were underperforming in 2021 and 2023; extreme weather events reached a peak in 2022; while four departments in 2023 suffered from four distinct shock domains at the same time. While coping prevalence and coping intensity are roughly aligned over time, they are only weakly correlated in geographical terms in 2023. Further, the biggest change in people’s coping behavior involves keeping children from school when confronted with severe political violence coupled with severe climate change and light seasonal performance shocks – while many distinct combinations apply for different subpopulations. Finally, this analysis also very much reveals the need for additional research on the same integrated and enhanced dataset.

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – September 2024

The rapidly evolving food security situation in Myanmar requires a high frequency, systematic and comprehensive approach to monitoring. The Myanmar monthly food price report synthesizes food price trends using three publicly available datasets, focusing on key agricultural crops and highlighting regional differences in rice prices. By analyzing these trends, the report aims to provide insights into the broader agricultural market and the factors driving food price fluctuations in Myanmar.

Integrated and enhanced datasets on food security and household coping strategies in the G5 Sahel Countries (2018-2023)

This report describes the methodology and output behind the integration and enhancement of nationally representative household surveys on food security and coping strategies implemented in the G5 Sahel countries between 2018 and 2023. Whereas the data integration process involves the harmonization of variables across multiple cross-sectional surveys, the enhancement procedure focuses on adding shock data on multiple dimensions of political violence, food price anomalies, and climate- and weather-related events. Despite shortcomings in data quality and exhaustivity, the resulting datasets represent a unique playground to study the interaction between shocks and stressors on the one hand and household coping strategies and their impact on food security on the other hand.

IFPRI Malawi Monthly Maize Market Report, September 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi to provide clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. All prices are reported in Malawi Kwacha (K).

Does location matter? A spatial analysis of the factors influencing adoption of cereal-legume intercropping among smallholder farming households in Malawi

This study examines the adoption of sustainable agricultural intensification practices— particularly cereal-legume intercropping—by smallholder farming households in Malawi. The focus of the study is on how spatial variation in key factors related to agricultural production and marketing influences farming households’ decision-making processes under risk. Separate analyses are done for six distinct agroecological zones in Malawi to evaluate how resource and market constraints affect farming households’ decisions to employ intercropping practices on their cropland and how the variations in these constraints have differing impacts on adoption of intercropping across different regions. This study provides valuable insights into the complexities of smallholder farming choices in diverse geographic contexts.

Food security and nutrition in Bangladesh: Evidence-based strategies for advancement

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) prepared this report to provide a comprehensive assessment of food security in Bangladesh, with a focus on the core dimensions of availability, access, and utilization. With support from Md. Al-Hasan, Sadat Anowar, Julie Ghostlaw, Mir Raihanul Islam, Razin Kabir, Md. Aminul Karim, Md. Aminul Islam Khandaker, Nabila Shaima, Raisa Shamma, and Sonjida Mesket Simi

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, August 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi to provide clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. All prices are reported in Malawi Kwacha (K).

Women’s Empowerment in Agricultural Governance (WEAGov) technical workshop: India pilot study

Gender Equality research initiative Gender Equality (HER+) is a One CGIAR Research Initiative seeking to address the following four dimensions of gender inequality in agrifood systems: o Women’s lack of agency or limited ability to define and act on goals, make decisions that matter to them, and participate in the economy and in public life; o Women’s lack of access to and control over resources; o Social norms that discriminate based on gender; and o Policies and governance that fail to include and benefit women. HER+ uses impactful gender research to address the four dimensions of gender inequality by applying gender-transformative approaches to address harmful norms. It does this by bundling innovations for women’s empowerment, leveraging social protection to increase women’s access to and control over resources, and promoting inclusive governance and policies for increased resilience. HER+ will generate learning and evidence on levers and entry points to disrupt the foundations of inequality in agrifood systems (AFS).

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, June 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi with the goal of providing clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. The reports are intended as a resource for those interested in maize markets in Malawi, namely producers, traders, consumers, policy makers, and other agricultural stakeholders.

Nature-Positive Solutions initiative baseline evaluation survey report: Vietnam

The report’s main objective is to describe socio-economic conditions and agricultural systems in the survey areas. It provides a baseline assessment characterizing the main agricultural and socioeconomic challenges within the surveyed localities, and to inform the array of research interventions currently underway. Furthermore, the study will provide a baseline for estimating the impacts of NATURE+ (including waste management, water management, development or a resilient seed system, development of value chains for neglected and underutilized species, participatory varietal selection, encouragement of designs for increasing agrobiodiversity, etc.) on inclusion, poverty reduction, as well as on food security, livelihoods, and jobs. The report is structured as follows: Section 2 presents detailed information on the survey design, its coverage and implementation. Sections 3 and 4 discuss the main analytical results of the report, separately for the household and the workers survey, respectively. Finally, section 5 concludes.

Nature-Positive Solutions initiative baseline evaluation survey report: Kenya

Conventional agriculture, while providing mass-scale production of cheap and plentiful food, has extracted a massive toll on both the environment and humans. On the one hand, industrial agriculture drives 80 percent of deforestation, threatens 86 percent of the 28,000 species currently at risk of extinction (through habitat conversion and pollution), is responsible for significant loss of crop and genetic diversity and up to 37 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE), accelerates land degradation and land-use change, and uses 70 percent of global water resources withdrawn. On the other hand, it has reduced nutrition outcomes for families and farming incomes due to impoverished soil and water health, reduced crop resistance to pests and diseases, and poor waste management. This unsustainable food production toll is further exacerbated by misaligned public policies and economic incentives. There is an urgent need to shift to more resilient farming systems capable of supporting smallholder farmers and ensuring that agriculture is a net positive contributor to nature. In 2021 the United Nations Food Systems Summit formally recognized nature-positive production as one of five critical pathways to sustainable food systems (Von Braun et al. 2023).

Innovation process tracing assessment: Methodological approach and guiding principles

The “Rethinking Food Markets and Value Chains for Inclusion and Sustainability” Initiative aims to provide evidence on what types of bundled innovations, incentive structures, and policies are most effective for creating more equitable sharing of income and employment opportunities in growing food markets while reducing the food sector’s environmental footprint. The Initiative targets approximately 30,000 individuals across six geographical areas, focusing on four key innovation areas: vertical coordination models, product quality certification, digital logistics, and finance innovations, along with global knowledge assessment. The approach to evaluating the initiative’s impact is based on a combination of theory-based methodologies, explicitly focusing on Process Tracing (PT) for the impact evaluation phase. The evaluation is designed to reflect on the success and learnings of the initiative while strengthening CGIAR’s practice of theory-based methods such as PT and integrating innovative techniques like “causal hotspots” and Outcome Harvesting for more nuanced analysis. At its core, this evaluation prioritizes and focuses on detailed case studies of selected innovation bundles. This distinctive feature allows for an in-depth analysis of significant outcomes within the initiative. The selection process is guided by the “causal hotspot” strategy for Contribution Analysis (CA) combined with Outcome Harvesting (OH), which helps identify key areas of impact prior to the PT application. The PT methodology is then rigorously applied to examine the plausibility of each innovation’s contributions and the strength of supporting evidence. This provides valuable insights to scaling efforts and evidence-based decision-making.

Uganda coffee agronomy training: Impact evaluation report

This report describes the methods and findings of a randomized controlled trial evaluating the impact of coffee agronomy training and phone-based advisory services on farmer practices and observed coffee yield. In-person training was provided in randomly selected villages over the course of two years by Hanns R. Neuman Stiftung (HRNS) and TechnoServe in two separate regions of Western Uganda encompassing six districts. Messages reinforcing this training were sent to a subset of farmers in villages where training was offered by Precision Development (PxD), and standalone messages were sent to a subset of farmers in villages where no training was offered. The program period spanned the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns, which significantly affected how training could be delivered and likely reduced its impact.

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model documentation for version 3.6

The International Food Policy Research Institute’s IMPACT model is a robust tool for analyzing global and regional challenges in food, agriculture, and natural resources. Continuously updated and refined, IMPACT version 3.6 is the latest update to the model for continuously improving the treatment of complex issues, including climate change, food security, and economic development. IMPACT 3.6 multimarket model integrates climate, crop simulation, and water models into a comprehensive system, providing decision-makers with a flexible platform to assess the potential impacts of various scenarios on biophysical systems, socioeconomic trends, technologies, and policies.

Designing gender- and youth-responsive agronomic solutions: accelerating the use of digital tools for delivering agronomic advice through a public-private partnership extension model in Rwanda

This report is part of a study series offering insights into the potential of Excellence in Agronomy (EiA) Use Cases to adjust the agronomic solutions offered through the Minimum Viable Products (MVP) to better reach, benefit, and empower women and youths, and to transform norms that cause gender and social inequalities. These efforts are guided appropriately by the Reach-Benefit-Empower-Transform framework that highlights the importance of not only reaching women and young people, but also making sure that they benefit from any interventions, that the interventions further help increase their empowerment, and lead to a transformation of any restrictive attitudes, norms, and power relations that are the root causes of gender and social inequalities.

The true costs of food in Kenya and Vietnam: A conceptual framework

Sustainable food systems provide enough quality, healthy, and affordable food to all without imposing a burden on planetary and social boundaries. By this standard, it is quite clear that food systems in many countries are not sustainable as they generate substantial environmental, social, and health costs while failing to provide affordable food to all (FAO et al., 2020). This implies the need to have a good understanding of the extent to which those externalities are present in country specific food systems. The key challenge is that such externalities are not reflected in market prices (Baker et al., 2020), being therefore hidden factors to drivers of choices by market players, as the link between market activity and those social and environmental harms is not directly visible or reflected in the incentives that drive economic systems (UNFSS, 2021). Internalizing the externalities of the food systems will require the full estimation of costs, including the measurement of externalities through “True Cost Accounting” (TCA) approaches. This document provides the analytical framework for the application of approaches in a research study to measure the true costs of food in Kenya and Vietnam. It focuses on: o Key research questions, their relevance, and policy implications o How the TCA analytical framework fits in The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) framework o Country selection and geographic focus – national, sub-national o Data requirements for estimating the true costs, including household surveys, workers’ surveys, externally compiled Global Impact Database (GID), and monetization factors. o A step-by-step process for estimating the true costs in the study area and country level GID analysis.

Impacts of Africa RISING in Tanzania

Sustainable intensification (SI) of the smallholder sector in Africa south of the Sahara is among the approaches pursued to build resilient food systems that can supply nutritionally adequate food in the face of rapid population growth and climatic changes. This study assesses the impact of an SI program in Tanzania implemented in the poorest and most food insecure areas of the country since 2012. The program first validated and then scaled up a wide range of SI interventions focused on improved agronomic management and crop cultivars; improved livestock feed, housing conditions, and species; crop-livestock integration; integrated natural resource management; vegetable production and nutritional education; and small-scale mechanization. Impact is estimated on several SI indicators and domains using two rounds of quasi-experimental panel data (conducted in 2014 and 2022), propensity score matching, and difference-in-differences techniques. The study design allows us to estimate the impact of Africa RISING by comparing outcomes among program beneficiaries with two different counterfactual groups—one located inside program villages (within-village comparison) and another in non-program (control) villages (out-of-village comparison)—on several indicators across five SI domains environment, productivity, economic, human, and social. We also conduct a placebo test comparing non-beneficiaries in the two counterfactual groups. Results from panel data analyses show improvements in several indicators in the environmental and productivity domains. We also find positive impact of participation in Africa RISING on several indicators under all the considered domains: beneficiaries were less likely to experience soil erosion, used more inputs (fertilizers, pesticides, and seeds) per hectare, obtained higher legume yields, were more likely to produce meat and dairy, reported higher net livestock income, and experienced fewer months of food insecurity. Estimates based on within-village, out-of-village, overall, and placebo comparisons suggest important insights about the challenges in assessing the impact of agricultural programs in general and, specifically, participatory multi-intervention programs in the presence of sample (self-)selection and spillovers. Our study highlights useful empirical lessons learned for informing future program design and impact assessments.

Impacts of Africa RISING in Ghana

Sustainable intensification (SI) of the smallholder sector in Africa south of the Sahara is among the approaches pursued to build resilient food systems that can supply nutritionally adequate food in the face of rapid population growth and climatic changes. This study assesses the impact of Africa RISING, an SI program in Ghana implemented in the poorest and most food insecure areas of the country since 2012. The program first validated and then scaled up a wide range of SI interventions focused on improved agronomic management and crop cultivars; improved livestock feed, housing conditions, and species; crop-livestock integration; integrated natural resource management; vegetable production and nutritional education; and small-scale mechanization. Impact is estimated using two rounds of quasi-experimental panel data (conducted in 2014 and 2020), propensity score matching, and difference-indifferences techniques. The study design allows us to estimate the impact of Africa RISING by comparing outcomes among program beneficiaries with those of two different control groups—one residing in program villages (within village comparison) and another in non-program (control) villages (out-of-village comparison) on several indicators across five SI domains—environment, productivity, economic, human, and social. We also conduct a placebo test comparing non-beneficiaries in the two control groups. Results from panel data analyses show improvements in several indicators in the environmental and productivity domains. We also find a positive impact on use of conservation practices (fallowing, disc/moldboard ploughing, manure), groundnut yield, livestock, net crop income, and women’s likelihood of becoming members of farmers groups relative to non-beneficiaries. We do not find a statistically significant effect on consumption- and asset-based poverty rates, household dietary diversity, and several indicators of maternal and child nutrition. For both beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries, the share of monetary-based non-poor, dietary diversity, and food security have declined between baseline (2014) and follow-up (2020) likely due COVID-19. Our study highlights useful empirical lessons learned for informing future program design and impact assessments.

Modelling the impacts of policy interventions for agrifood systems transformation in Indonesia

The Government of Indonesia and FAO have recognized the need for thorough analysis and modelling of Indonesia’s agrifood systems to support agrifood systems transformation efforts in the country. This is needed to provide a better understanding of the governance context in agrifood systems, including the political economy dynamics influencing performance, as well as to identify synergies and trade-offs across different policy goals and optimal policy mixes for achieving multiple policy objectives. In this regard, FAO facilitated a project to pilot an innovative approach to modelling for food systems transformation. This modelling approach was developed and implemented by a team of researchers from IFPRI, IIASA, IISD and Christian-Albrechts- University of Kiel. It uses three different economic models to generate insights that can assist Indonesian policymakers in developing technically sound and politically feasible policy interventions for agrifood systems transformation. This report provides context for agrifood systems transformation in Indonesia and describes the overall modelling approach before synthesizing the results of the individual modelling activities and distilling these into the overall findings of the modelling. It concludes with implications from these findings for policymaking for agrifood systems transformation in Indonesia and suggestions for the next steps. The results of this modelling and the insights drawn from these results are expected to support efforts to translate Indonesia’s commitments on agrifood systems transformation into concrete policy interventions and to inform medium- and long-term development planning by the Indonesian Government.

Impacts of Africa RISING in Malawi

This study evaluates the impact of Africa RISING, a large-scale sustainable intensification (SI) program that has been implemented in Central Malawi’s Dedza and Ntcheu districts beginning in 2012. Using a participatory action research framework, the program validated and promoted alternative SI options including fertilized maize, maize-legume intercropping, intercropping of two compatible legumes, cereal-legume rotation, and double-row planting of legumes. Impact is estimated on several SI indicators and domains using two rounds of panel data and difference-in-differences techniques. The unique study design allowed us to estimate impact by comparing outcomes among program beneficiaries with two different counterfactual groups—one located inside program villages (within village comparison) and another in non-program (control) villages (out-of-village comparison). We also conduct a placebo test comparing non-beneficiaries in the two counterfactual groups. The within-village comparison shows positive impact on several agricultural and economic indicators including access to agricultural information, value of harvest, on-farm diversity, labor profitability, annual net household income, per capita household consumption expenditure, household wealth, and household dietary diversity score. We do not find a statistically significant impact on human indicators such as child and maternal nutrition. Estimates based on within-village, out-of-village, and placebo comparisons suggest important insights about the challenges in assessing the impact of agricultural programs in general and, specifically, participatory multi-intervention programs in the presence of sample (self-)selection and spillovers. Our study highlights important lessons learned to inform future program design and impact assessments.

Impacts of Africa RISING in Mali

This study evaluates the impact of Africa RISING, a sustainable intensification (SI) program, implemented in Bougouni, Yanfolila, and Koutiala cercles in southern Mali beginning in 2012. Using a participatory action research framework, the program validated and promoted alternative SI options including fertilized groundnut and sorghum, crop-legume intercropping, intercropping of two compatible legumes, access to extension services, and fertilizer microdosing, while preserving ecosystem services in the face of projected population growth and climatic changes. Impact is estimated on several SI indicators and domains using two rounds of quasi-experimental panel data (surveys conducted in 2014 and 2022) and difference-in-differences techniques. The unique study design allows us to estimate the impact of Africa RISING by comparing outcomes among program beneficiaries with two different counterfactual groups—one located inside program villages (within-village comparison) and another in non-program (control) villages (out-of-village comparison) on several indicators across five SI domains—environment, productivity, economic, human, and social. We also conduct a placebo test comparing non-beneficiaries in the two counterfactual groups. We find few statistically significant differences in the averages of the characteristics in the environmental and productivity domain among households in the within-village and out-of-village comparisons, most likely because of misreporting of program participation. Overall comparisons between households in target and non-target villages show a positive impact of AR on environmental variables such as access to extension services, and adoption of improved crops; on productivity variables such as green bean, cotton and okra yield; and on economic variables such as an increase in the non-agricultural wealth index; but no statistically significant effect on human and social indicators, namely household dietary diversity, food consumption scores, and nutritional indicators for children 0–59 months old and women 15–49 years old. Estimates based on within-village, out-of-village, and placebo comparisons suggest important insights about the challenges in assessing the impact of agricultural programs in general and, specifically, participatory multi-intervention programs in the presence of sample (self-)selection and spillovers. Our study highlights useful empirical lessons learned to inform future program design and impact assessments.

Africa RISING impact assessment report

This report summarizes lessons from cross-country analyses of the impact of the Africa RISING (AR) program. Implemented in six countries—Ethiopia, Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia, Mali, and Ghana—AR aimed to provide pathways out of hunger and poverty for smallholders by sustainably intensifying their farming systems in order to enhance income and food security, particularly for women and children, while conserving or enhancing the natural resource base. Phase I (2012–2016) focused on the validation of demand-driven sustainable intensification (SI) innovations, while Phase II (2016–2022) focused on the scaling of a subset of validated SI innovations in partnership with development partners. Our impact assessment studies covered all program countries, except Zambia, and are based on two rounds of household panel survey data, excluding Ethiopia for which program effect is estimated using one round of survey data. Impact is estimated using the difference-in-differences method for countries with panel data or, for Ethiopia, based on simple comparison of outcomes between program beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries. The choice of impact indicators is guided by the Sustainable Intensification Assessment Framework (SIAF) framework and survey data availability. Impact indicators encompass the five sustainable intensification (SI) domains discussed in the SIAF: environment, productivity, economic, human, and social.

Food security and social assistance in Sudan during armed conflict: Evidence from the first round of the Sudan Rural Household Survey (November 2023–January 2024)

The conflict in Sudan has severely impacted the food security landscape in rural areas, with profound implications for household diets, coping strategies, and overall food insecurity levels. Data from a national rural household phone survey conducted between October 2023 and January 2024 highlights the dire food consumption patterns, the prevalence of food insecurity, and the reliance on reduced coping strategies among the rural population of Sudan. As of the end of 2023, nearly 40 percent of rural households were consuming inadequate diets, with West Kordofan, South Kordofan, North Darfur, East Darfur, and Sennar states experiencing the highest prevalence of poor food consumption (34, 33, 29 and 24 percent, respectively). The primary components of diets were cereals and oils, with nutrient-rich foods, such as meats and fruits, consumed less frequently, highlighting a critical gap in nutritional adequacy. The situation has resulted in households across Sudan resorting to a range of coping strategies to try to meet their food needs, such as buying less preferred or less expensive food (on average 4 days out of 7), limiting portion sizes, or reducing the number of daily meals. The five coping mechanisms that were examined in the analysis were found to be implemented with approximately similar frequencies across rural Sudan. However, the situation was particularly dire in West Darfur, South Kordofan, and Khartoum, the states recording the highest prevalence of consumption of inadequate diets and the highest reduced Coping Strategy Index (rCSI) scores.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, May 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi to provide clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. All prices are reported in Malawi Kwacha (K).

Retrospective evaluation of scaling associated with the IITA Cassava Weed Management Project (CWMP): Final project

The Cassava Weed Management Project (CWMP), funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) from 2013-2018, aimed to promote the use of safe and environmentally friendly herbicides for effective weed control in cassava production in Nigeria. This retrospective evaluation, conducted by a consortium of experts from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Sahel Consulting Agriculture and Nutrition Limited, examined the extent to which the private sector has scaled up the herbicides tested and recommended by the CWMP, as well as the factors influencing companies’ decisions to register and deploy these products. The evaluation, conducted in 2023-2024, employed a mixed-methods approach that relied heavily on the qualitative approaches to uncover underlying factors affecting scaling and adoption. The methods included document reviews, key informant interviews (KII), focus group discussions (FGD) with cassava farmers, mystery shopper surveys of agro-dealer shops, and quantitative analysis of secondary data from sources like official company data and the Living Standard Measurement Study – Integrated Survey on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA). The evaluation findings indicate that the private sector has made notable efforts in scaling up some of the recommended herbicides, but the extent of scaling varies across different products. Relying on sales data from herbicide companies to estimate the number of cassava farmers who have adopted various herbicide products over the last five years, the evaluators found that Glyphosates stand out in terms of number of cassava farmers who have adopted these herbicides over this period. Owing to missing sales data from the herbicide companies, our reported estimates focus only on the number of farmers that purchased the herbicides in the most recent year of sale. We estimate that more than 200,000 cassava farmers used the herbicides Touchdown and Force-Up in 2023, and more than 120,000 cassava farmers used Sarosate in 2023. We found that only about 2,800 farmers used Primextra Gold in 2021. Gallant Super was also estimated to have been adopted by over 23,000 in 2023, Vigor adopted by over 5,000 farmers in 2023, and SlashaGold by about 4,500 cassava farmers. While these estimates are based on the best available data from the companies, it is important to exercise caution in citing these figures due to the lack of precise records of sales of specific herbicides to cassava farmers.

Impact evaluation of the use of PBR cowpea in Nigeria: Baseline process evaluation report

This process evaluation (PE) is part of a five-year (2021–2026) impact evaluation (IE) of the use of a new pod-borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea variety in Nigeria, a project led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). While the IE draws from a representative sample of 1,399 farmers to determine the causal impacts of the use of PBR cowpea, the PE complements the IE by exploring in detail the potential adoption of the PBR cowpea variety and the reasons for adoption or non adoption, including its potential impacts on actors throughout the value chain. A program impact pathway (PIP) is the basis of this PE. The PIP identifies how impacts emerge from program inputs, processes, outputs, and outcomes to highlight barriers and facilitators of adoption. Given that this PE was conducted before the rollout of PBR cowpea in the IE, the analysis focuses on the potential of this innovative seed to achieve positive outputs and outcomes based on the PIP. Qualitative data were gathered from eight focus group discussions with farmers and 180 semi-structured interviews conducted with farmers, extension agents, seed dealers, and cowpea traders from eight local government areas (LGAs) in the states of Adamawa and Kwara. Given that the data are qualitative, the data are not representative. However, important insights were found that can help guide the IE.

Impact evaluation of the use of PBR cowpea in Nigeria: Baseline report

Nigeria is the largest consumer and producer of cowpea in Africa. Produced predominantly by smallholder farmers, cowpea is relied on by millions of Nigerians and is one of their main sources of affordable protein. Despite cowpea’s economic relevance (Nwagboso et al. 2024; Phillip et al. 2019), cowpea yields in Nigeria have barely grown over the last 20 years. One of the main abiotic constraints of the crop is the pod-borer insect (Maruca vitrata), which can cause damages of up to 80 percent. Given that conventional breeding has not been successful in addressing this constraint, local and international efforts over the last decades focused on developing a pod-borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea. The culmination of these efforts in Nigeria was the commercial release of the PBR cowpea variety SAMPEA-20T in late 2019. This is a significant milestone, as it was the first transgenic food crop to be approved for cultivation in Nigeria. In its programming under the “Feed the Future Innovative Maize and Cowpea Technologies to Increase Food and Nutrition Security in Africa” activity, implemented by the African Agricultural Technology Foundation (AATF), the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) aims for an adoption rate of PBR cowpea in Nigeria of 25 percent by 2025, with yield gains of 20 percent and accompanying reductions in pesticide applications. The International Food Policy Research Institute’s (IFPRI) Program for Biosafety Systems (PBS) is leading a five-year (2021–2026) impact evaluation (IE) project, funded by USAID. The study goal is to generate causal evidence of the use of the PBR cowpea variety and its consequential household and farm impacts and associated value chain effects. In a collaboration with IFPRI’s Nigeria Country Office, PBS is leading and coordinating the overall study while the IFPRI-Nigeria Country Office designs and implements the quantitative and qualitative approaches to the evaluation. IFPRI has worked with technology developers, the AATF and its partners (including private local seed companies), to ensure access to necessary data and cooperation by the evaluation team, while maintaining the team’s independence. To ensure such required independence, the evaluation team has separated the cooperation in implementing the evaluation (including distributing inputs) from the data analysis. The evaluation team will continue to maintain its independence in the methodological approach and the analysis of the results from the implemented randomized controlled trial (RCT), adhering to international standards.

FarmUSE: Assessment of antimicrobial use in poultry farms

Antimicrobial use in livestock systems is thought to be a key driver for the development of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Therefore, efforts to reduce antimicrobial use are seen as a key intervention to controlling AMR. Understanding the patterns of antimicrobial use in different production systems is essential. Antimicrobials are commonly used in poultry production for disease treatment, prevention and, to an extent, growth promotion. In low- and middle-income countries, surveillance of antimicrobial use in animals is hampered by the lack of standardised data collection tools and reporting systems across different countries and regions. To address this gap, these tools were developed and adapted to poultry broiler production systems to support the collection of comprehensive data related to demographics, production and antibiotic usage data. The tools are designed for both retrospective and prospective data gathering.

Implementer-Led Evaluation and Learning (IMPEL) evaluation of SPIR II RFSA – Midline survey report

The objective of this report is to present results from the midline survey conducted as part of the IMPEL evaluation of SPIR-II, a randomized controlled trial launched in 2022. The second phase of the Strengthen PSNP Institutions and Resilience (SPIR-II) project aims to enhance livelihoods, increase resilience to shocks, and improve food security and nutrition for rural households vulnerable to food insecurity in Ethiopia. The project is situated within Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), one of the largest safety net programs in Africa. Funded by USAID’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA), SPIR-II is implemented by World Vision International (lead), CARE, and ORDA in the Amhara and Oromia regions of Ethiopia. The IMPEL SPIR-II impact evaluation employs an experimental design with three arms comparing two treatment combinations of livelihood and nutrition graduation model programming provided to PSNP beneficiaries relative to a control group receiving only PSNP transfers. The treatment assignment is randomized at the kebele level in 234 kebeles. In the first arm (T1; the control group), PSNP is implemented by the government with SPIR II support for the provision of cash and food transfers only (no supplemental programming). In the second arm (T2), SPIR-II programming is rolled out to PSNP beneficiary households in conjunction with nurturing care groups targeting enhanced infant and young child nutritional practices. In the third arm (T3), PSNP beneficiary households receive SPIR-II programming and nurturing care groups (NCGs), supplemented with additional targeted cash transfers to pregnant and lactating women.

2023 IFPRI annual report

IFPRI’s 2023 Annual Report offers highlights from our research around the world and of our analysis and communications on addressing global challenges that contribute to hunger and malnutrition. In 2023, IFPRI continued the critical work on crisis and resilience-building that began with the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and rising food prices. Our research also continued to inform policymakers and stakeholders on climate resilience and sustainability, healthy diets and nutrition, inclusive and efficient food systems, institutions and governance, and rural transformation, all with attention to gender and the world’s most vulnerable people, with the goals of reducing poverty and ending hunger and malnutrition.

Flagship report on policy coherence of food, land and water systems in Nigeria

The Sustainable Development Goals are interconnected and cut across Food, Land and Water (FLW) systems. But the formulation and implementation of national policy objectives to attain the SDGs may be fragmented and uncoordinated. The CGIAR Initiative on National Policies and Strategies (NPS), aims to contribute to agri-foods system transformation, by identifying ways of building stronger FLW policies with greater coherence and investment capacity, to support Nigeria in addressing current crises and future development needs. This flagship report focuses on (in)coherence in policies related to FLW systems in Nigeria, through the lens of Policies and Institutions Landscape Analysis Framework. To achieve policy coherence for sustainable development, the report highlights the need for: 1. strengthening staff and institutional capacities for FLW contextual and policy analysis to effectively identify, anticipate and respond to crisis. 2. developing systemic polycentric decision-making and governance, involving multi-stakeholders at the Federal, State and Local levels. 3. providing sustainable funding for the effective implementation of policy objectives, projects and programmes in the relevant FLW-related sectors 4. maintaining continuity of the implementation of ongoing transformative FLW policy objectives and programmes when an incumbent government comes into power. 5. promoting evidence-based (real time and high-quality data) policy formulation, monitoring, evaluation, and learning.

A landscape analysis of youth engagement in agripreneurship in Malawi

This report aims to explore the multidimensional challenges and opportunities for youth in agripreneurship in Malawi for a better understanding of interventions for youth in agribusiness. It examines the enabling and disenabling environment for young agripreneurs and how best to engage youth within the agribusiness sector. The report draws on in-depth interviews, workshops, and secondary literature to highlight key issues and strategies to engage youth agripreneurs in Malawi. It also offers recommendations for actors, practitioners, and policymakers to enhance transformative interventions for youth participation in agribusiness. Suggested measures include improving access to input, market, and equipment, setting up quota systems targeting youth agripreneurs, and better coordinating youth programs between ministries and the private sectors. The report also emphasized that these strategies are not just to achieve youth inclusion in agribusiness but also for the sustainability of youth programs which contribute to building resilient societies.

2024 Global report on food crises: Joint analysis for better decisions

The Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC) 2024 confirms the enormity of the challenge of achieving the goal of ending hunger by 2030. In 2023, nearly 282 million people or 21.5 percent of the analysed population in 59 countries/territories faced high levels of acute food insecurity requiring urgent food and livelihood assistance. This additional 24 million people since 2022 is explained by expanded analysis coverage as well as deteriorating acute food insecurity in some countries outweighing improvements in others. Palestine (Gaza Strip) and the Sudan were the most devastatingly deteriorating food crises. The number of people experiencing catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity rose to over 0.7 million – almost double the number of 2022 – with nearly 0.6 million of them in the Gaza Strip. Published by the Food Security Information Network (FSIN) in support of the Global Network against Food Crises (GNAFC), the GRFC 2024 is the reference document for global, regional and country-level acute food insecurity in 2023. The report is the result of a collaborative effort among 16 partners to achieve a consensus-based assessment of acute food insecurity and malnutrition in countries with food crises and aims to inform humanitarian and development action.

The unjust climate: Measuring the impacts of climate change on rural poor, women and youth

Developing policies to foster inclusive rural transformation processes requires better evidence on how climate change is affecting the livelihoods and economic behaviours of vulnerable rural people, including women, youths and people living in poverty. In particular, there is little comparative, multi-country and multi-region evidence to understand how exposure to weather shocks and climate change affects the drivers of rural transformation and adaptive actions across different segments of rural societies and in different agro-ecological contexts. This evidence is essential because, while climate risk and adaptive actions are context specific and require local solutions, global evidence is important for identifying shared vulnerabilities and priority actions for scaling up effective responses. This report assembles an impressive set of data from 24 low- and middle-income countries in five world regions to measure the effects of climate change on rural women, youths and people living in poverty. It analyses socioeconomic data collected from 109 341 rural households (representing over 950 million rural people) in these 24 countries. These data are combined in both space and time with 70 years of georeferenced data on daily precipitation and temperatures. The data enable us to disentangle how different types of climate stressors affect people’s on-farm, off-farm and total incomes, labour allocations and adaptive actions, depending on their wealth, gender and age characteristics.

Livelihoods in Sudan amid armed conflict: Evidence from a national rural household survey

Analysis of a comprehensive survey of Sudanese rural households conducted from November 2023 to January 2024 by IFPRI and UNDP reveals significant socioeconomic impacts of the ongoing armed conflict on the Sudanese population, underscoring the need for immediate and targeted policy and programmatic interventions. The conflict has severely disrupted rural household incomes and exacerbated existing vulnerabilities related to their housing and access to infrastructure and services. Most households live in inadequate housing conditions, with disparities in access to water, electricity, and sanitation services posing additional challenges. Rural households’ low access to assets, including agricultural land, further complicates their livelihoods. The conflict, primarily concentrated in urban areas, particularly Khartoum, has triggered mass migration, with significant numbers relocating to states like Aj Jazirah and Gedaref. These migrants, often from relatively better-off backgrounds, face substantial income losses, necessitating basic needs support and enhanced provision of public services, particularly for the large families that are more likely to migrate. Agriculture, a critical sector for rural livelihoods, has been significantly affected across all states. Most households reported not cultivating land during the summer season of 2023 due to the conflict. The sharp reduction in the area of crops planted underscores the need for support for farming activities, particularly for smallholder households. The survey highlights extensive exposure to shocks among rural households, with personal shocks, such as illnesses among household members, being the most common. Natural and climatic shocks, although less prevalent, alongside conflict-related shocks, like theft and violence, emphasize the complex challenges faced by these communities. Market access and disruptions have further impacted rural households, with a considerable proportion of rural households unable to sell or buy goods, primarily due to high prices and sharp reductions in income for most households. These market challenges, coupled with the overall economic instability, necessitate interventions aimed at maintaining and improving market accessibility and functionality to promote recovery and resilience. The findings from the analysis of the survey data lend support to designing and implementing comprehensive strategies that address the immediate needs of displaced populations and other rural households affected by income losses and market disruptions. Enhancing public services, supporting livelihoods, building resilience through shock-responsive social protection systems, agricultural and economic interventions, and ensuring equitable access to resources and markets for all households, particularly those headed by women and vulnerable groups, are the principal policy recommendations that emerged from this analysis. This study of rural household livelihoods amid the armed conflict in Sudan provides a foundation for targeted interventions and policy reforms aimed at mitigating the conflict’s impacts and fostering long-term resilience and economic stability.

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, March 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi to provide clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. All prices are reported in Malawi Kwacha (K).

Sustainable agricultural modernization productivity tools in Asia

Modernization of the agricultural sector can have a multiplier effect on its productivity. However, it is equally important to conserve the fast depleting water and energy resources and enhance the quality of farmers’ lives. Only then can the sector sustain itself in the long run and ensure food security for all. This study explores the tools and frameworks that can ensure sustainable agricultural modernization in Asia.

Brief review of Ghana’s food system transformation pathways

Global estimates show over half a billion people go hungry (FAO, 2020) and close to 2 billion people are either obese or overweight with another 2 billion of the world’s population suffering from micronutrient deficiencies (Micha et al., 2020, Fresco et al., 2017). Inarguably, the world faces significant malnutrition problem (including micro- and macro-nutrient deficiencies, obesity, and diet related non-communicable diseases). This is evident in a recent analysis pointing out that effort in achieving the Global Nutrition Targets is likely to be missed. The observed malnutrition threat is accompanied by climate change, which is influencing food production and consumption trends, and thereby leading to undernutrition and affecting overall development. In addition, there are growing incomes, accelerated urbanization, and expanding middle classes which are also causing significant changes in consumer behaviour and nutritional choices, necessitating both public and private expenditures for better food market integration. As a result, there is a pressing need to examine our food systems to guarantee food and nutrition security and to advance sustainable development. It is likely that the COVID-19 impact may further exacerbates the worsening food insecurity and nutritional status of the most vulnerable groups including women, children and adolescents, refugees and displaced people, smallholders in rural areas, and the urban poor.

Ghana: Processes and outputs associated with the UN Food Systems Summit

Like other countries in the sub-region particularly West African economies, Ghana is grappling with multiple burdens of malnutrition which is accompanied by climate change that influence food production and consumption trends, and thereby leading to undernutrition and affecting overall development. In addition, growing incomes, accelerated urbanization, and expanding middle classes are also causing significant changes in consumer behavior and nutritional choices, necessitating both public and private expenditures for better food market integration. While food insecurity, and undernutrition (e.g. stunting, micronutrient deficiencies) persist, obesity and diet-related non-communicable diseases are rising rapidly. General nutrition situation and identification of the highest priority nutrition problems. Various estimates of nutritional status of Ghanaian children under aged 5 years show that 19% were stunted, 5% were wasted, and 11% were underweight. In 2018, the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) showed nearly similar rates of stunting (18%), wasting (7%) and underweight (13%), suggesting that stunting prevalence improved only marginally during the last 5-6 years, whereas child wasting and underweight worsened during the period. Other significant problems of undernutrition in Ghana include a high prevalence anemia in children 6-59 months (55%), adolescent girls (48%) and women of reproductive age (42%). From the foregoing, the high priority nutrition challenges in Ghana, include “stunting and wasting in children under 5 years of age; anemia in children 6-59 months of age, adolescent girls, and women of reproductive age; but also, overweight and obesity in school-age children and younger adolescents; and overweight and obesity in women of reproductive age (15-49 y of age). Report of the Demographic and Health Surveys show a significant rising trend in adult obesity – from 10% in 1993 to 40% in 2015 (GSS et al., 2015). Also, the Ghanaian food environments (particularly in the urban areas) is currently characterized by cheap highly-processed foods, with nutrient-dense foods such fruits and vegetables lacking in meals because it is unaffordable (Laar, 2021).

Report on Inception Workshop: Strengthening national capacities and policies for food systems analysis and transformation in Ghana

This report is produced from the proceedings of the Inception workshop on “Strengthening National Capacities and Policies for Food Systems analysis and Transformation in Ghana” project held on Wednesday, 2nd August 2023 at Alisa Hotel, Accra. The workshop aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the project and outlined its objectives, and timeline, alongside a review of the current landscape of the Ghana’s Food Systems Transformation. It brought together various stakeholders and institutions in the Ghanaian food systems. The workshop facilitated valuable discussions among participants to gather insights and inputs for the project’s advancement (see attached list of participants). Three distinct presentations – project overview, project deliverables and timelines, and food systems diagnostics and tools as well as trade-offs and opportunities – were made at the workshop.

Engaging women in microfinance: A qualitative study of the Programme de Microfinance Rural in Mali

The Programme de Microfinance Rural (PMR) was implemented in the rural, impoverished regions of Koulikoro, Kayes, Ségou, Sikasso and Mopti in Mali with support from the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD). This paper shares the results of a qualitative study designed to improve understanding of the programme’s delivery and explore its impacts in terms of collective agency and efficacy, as well as the use of resources in households, with attention paid to the role of gender in addressing these issues. The findings suggest that the PMR actively engaged women and expanded access to loans through community-based credit groups. It also overcame negative community experiences with previous microfinance programmes to maintain a positive local reputation. In many cases, the PMR led to significant economic benefits for women but, in other cases, loan repayment terms posed a challenge. The collective agency of PMR credit groups built upon progress made by similar community groups in existence prior to the arrival of the PMR. The resources provided by the PMR strengthened these groups and helped enable them to expand their collective efficacy and ability to benefit the community more broadly. Women were most often the target loan recipients and frequently had a strong voice in the PMR groups, which were influential in the community. There is little evidence, however, that the PMR activities and credit group participation spilled over to strengthen either women’s political power in the community or their influence and empowerment in their own households. The paper concludes with specific recommendations for strengthening future iterations of the PMR or similar programmes.

2023 PNG Rural Household Survey Report

From May to December 2023, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) implemented a rural household survey that collected detailed data on rural household food consumption and expenditures, agricultural production practices, employment profiles, child and mother 24-hour diet recall, and child anthropometry measurements in Papua New Guinea (PNG). The research team carried out the survey, which used location-based sampling, across five agroecological study areas, of which four of the areas were defined using elevation and rainfall variation. The five agroecological survey areas were seasonal highlands, nonseasonal highlands, seasonal lowlands, nonseasonal lowlands, and islands (the islands survey sample was not disaggregated by elevation or precipitation patterns). In identifying seasonal and nonseasonal survey areas, we adapted the rainfall seasonality categories established by Bourke and Harwood (2009), who evaluated the relative difference in rainfall between the wet and the dry season using resource mapping units defined by the PNG Resource Information System (PNGRIS). The areas of the country that experience large seasonal variation in rainfall (heavy to light, depending on the season) are classified as seasonal, whereas the areas that experience moderate to continuously heavy rainfall throughout the year are classified as nonseasonal (see Figure A1.1 in the appendix for the survey seasonality classification by area). In nonseasonal areas, agricultural growing conditions remain similar year-round, whereas seasonal rainfall areas have agricultural conditions that necessitate a variety of production strategies. Lowland and highland areas were defined using elevation data; areas 1,000 meters or more above sea level were classified as highlands, and those below 1,000 meters were classified as lowlands. The survey collected data from 270 communities across 14 provinces, from a total of 2,699 households. It is important to note that the survey is not nationally representative. Rather, we chose a purposive sample using criteria that would enable analysts of the data to understand the key factors that interact within rural households and communities to create more resilient local food systems, more diversified employment profiles, and improved well-being. Generalizable relationships between variables that affect socioeconomic and other development outcomes in rural PNG communities should be seen consistently in both representative and unrepresentative survey samples.

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, February 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi to provide clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. All prices are reported in Malawi Kwacha (K).

Global food 50/50 report 2023/2024: Analysis of family-friendly workplace policies and gender equality in 51 global food system organizations

The third annual Global Food 50/50 Report, a joint initiative of Global Health 50/50, the International Food Policy Research Institute, and UN Women, reviews the gender- and equity-related policies and practices of 51 global food system organizations to assess two interlinked dimensions of inequality: inequality of opportunity in careers within organizations and inequality in who benefits from the global food system. The Report highlights the progress, or lack thereof, made by food organizations in promoting diversity and equality in their leadership and decision-making. For the first time, the 2023/2024 Report expands its focus to address a policy area that plays a decisive role in promoting equality of opportunity in the workplace: the extent to which workplace policies recognize and support employees’ care responsibilities.

Food as the “silent weapon”: Russia’s gains and Ukraine’s losses

Russia’s war in Ukraine has caused the greatest military-related disruption to global agricultural markets in at least a century. Ukraine’s agricultural sector has been a major front in Russia’s war since February 2022, and the primary purpose of Russia’s targeting of Ukraine’s agricultural infrastructure is likely to undercut a main source of Ukraine’s income. Ukraine’s GDP contracted by more than 29 percent in 2022 compared to 2021, and the value of agriculture as a proportion of Ukraine’s GDP was 39 percent lower in 2022 than 2021. The global disruptions to the agricultural market due to Ukraine’s diminished production and exports have been stark: world food prices reached all-time nominal highs in March 2022, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization Food Price Index. In 2022, 258 million people suffered from acute food insecurity, an all-time high, according to the Global Report on Food Crises. At the same time, the cost of addressing these challenges also soared due to concurrent shocks in the global energy and fertilizer markets brought on by Russia’s war. For example, the cost of the delivery of humanitarian assistance also peaked due to the increased cost of food and fuel for operations. At the same time, for countries hoping to address domestic food insecurity with domestic agricultural production, the increased cost of fertilizer became a limiting factor. Likewise, countries dealing with the high price of food imports, high prices of agricultural inputs, and high levels of food insecurity also had less fiscal space for social programs following the Covid-19 pandemic, which drained national budgets.

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, January 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi to provide clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. All prices are reported in Malawi Kwacha (K).

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, December 2023

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi with the goal of providing clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. The reports are intended as a resource for those interested in maize markets in Malawi, namely producers, traders, consumers, policy makers, and other agricultural stakeholders.

Expecting too much, foreseeing too little? Behavioral explanations for the sell low-buy high puzzle in smallholder market participation

It is often observed that smallholder farmers sell most of their marketable surplus immediately after the harvest when seasonal price movements reach their lowest point, instead of waiting just a few more months until prices recover. Most explanations for this seemingly sub-optimal behavior focus on economic or infrastructural issues, such as credit constraints or lack of storage facilities. In this study, we take a closer look at two potential behavioral explanations. One explanation focuses on household expenditure and assumes that households face challenges in accurately predicting future expenditures, systematically underestimating future needs. A second potential explanation focuses on household income, where motivated reasoning leads farmers to sell too early and/or at low prices. To test these hypotheses, we conduct two planning-based interventions among a sample of Malawian smallholder farmers: (1) a detailed expense budget and (2) a sales plan with explicit commitment to timing of sales, quantities and prices. The treatments were administered at harvest time in May 2022 and April 2023.

India [in How to reduce agrifood systems’ future hidden costs? A multi-country case study]

We review the hidden costs of food systems in India as developed in the FAO SOFA 2023 report and evaluate the results in the context of India. Additionally, we assess the factors of change to reduce the hidden costs of food systems in India through a multi-model approach. We use a suite of interconnected models to implement scenarios and assess their impact on reducing the hidden costs. We create two scenarios of transformation and evaluate them across 14 indicators of food system changes encompassing the four dimensions of health, environment, inclusion, and economic costs. We also conduct stakeholder consultations to discuss the analysis and gather stakeholder opinions. We find that large average hidden cost reductions until 2050 come mainly from shift towards healthy diets, improved crop and livestock production, avoided cropland expansion and mitigated NO3 run-off. Timely shifts in dietary patterns, curbing nitrogen emissions from cropland surface runoff, and managing land use change emerge as pivotal factors for reduction of hidden costs in India. Our analysis points towards the importance of assessment of hidden costs of food systems in India using existing data and evidence. At the same time, the results from our analysis highlight the importance of reviewing analysis of hidden costs, methodological validation, and forward-looking projections within agrifood systems.

Synthesis of the agrifood systems’ hidden costs analysis in the six FABLE country case studies

This chapter summarizes the main findings about hidden costs in agrifood systems across six countries, Australia, Brazil, Colombia, Ethiopia, India, and the United Kingdom building on the results from SOFA 2023, the FABLE Consortium, and the Food System Economic Commission (FSEC) initiative. While the fact that unhealthy diets currently trigger the biggest hidden costs in most countries was a surprise for some stakeholders, there was a consensus that this is an important and growing issue that urgently needs to be addressed. Changing diets and increasing agricultural productivity have the largest impact on reducing the agrifood system’s hidden costs in the future, but implementing an integrated strategy that can also target environmental protection has the largest benefits. Some hidden costs related to undernourishment are covered in the analysis, but they do not accurately reflect the size of the problem, particularly in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Better local datasets should be used in hidden costs computation for GHG emissions and land cover change, and thresholds for poverty and undernourishment should be aligned with national statistics. There are challenges to communicating the complexity of the hidden costs method, but this topic is gaining momentum for policy planning, and several governments are already either utilizing or planning to develop similar metrics, so this analysis was a timely exercise.

2024 Breakthrough Agenda Report: Agriculture

Longa: An automated speech recognition tool for Bantu languages

Farm Radio International (FRI) and the CGIAR Research Initiative on Digital Innovation have col laborated on the development of an end-to-end, automatic speech recognition pipeline for the tran scription, translation, and analysis of Swahili and Luganda. This task is particularly challenging due to the number of languages used by FRI’s clients and the limited training data available for speech recognition in African languages. The tool is named ‘Longa’, or ‘Let’s chat’ in Swahili. Longa will be used to answer the surplus of phone calls currently being received from smallholder farmers asking questions about radio programs which FRI does not presently have the capacity to address. When fully implemented, Longa should allow FRI to design their broadcasts more intricately in line with the needs of farmers and better deliver insights to those most in need, such as female and youth farmers. Key results from the collaboration include a series of design principles iteratively and col laboratively developed to reflect the common values and goals of FRI and the CGIAR, a proof of concept for Longa, building on open-source models and open access corpora, to be shared with the developer community upon completion of the final tool, a 10% improvement upon the state-of-the art automatic speech recognition in Luganda radio-speech performance and accuracy, some im provement in performance with audio enhancement processes using real-world data, and proof that fine-tuning is an effective approach to expanding Longa to new languages. The next steps of the collaboration will focus on the analysis and interpretation of an aggregation of farmer phone calls and integration with the existing FRI workflow and software.

Participatory variety selection of capsicum in three sites and tomato in Iringa site

Participatory variety selection on capsicum was done on all three experimental sites, the selection involved different participants including Extension officers, farmers, processors researchers and village executives. Two selection methods were used in identifying the best candidate lines that are suitable for registration as new variety, that is Matrix and pairwise ranking approaches.

Stakeholders Consultation on the National Fisheries Fisheries and Aquaculture Policy (2024-2028)

This report summarizes the processes of developing the national fisheries and aquaculture policy in Nigeria in a 2-day consultation workshop with more than 63 stakeholders from the government ministries, nongovernmental and civil society organizations, research institutes, universities, and donors.

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, November 2023

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi with the goal of providing clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. The reports are intended as a resource for those interested in maize markets in Malawi, namely producers, traders, consumers, policy makers, and other agricultural stakeholders.

Impacts of Africa RISING in Malawi

This study evaluates the impact of Africa RISING, a large-scale sustainable intensification (SI) program that has been implemented in Central Malawi’s Dedza and Ntcheu districts beginning in 2012. Using a participatory action research framework, the program validated and promoted alternative SI options including fertilized maize, maize-legume intercropping, intercropping of two compatible legumes, cereal-legume rotation, and double-row planting of legumes. Impact is estimated on several SI indicators and domains using two rounds of panel data and difference-in-differences techniques. The unique study design allowed us to estimate impact by comparing outcomes among program beneficiaries with two different counterfactual groups—one located inside program villages (within village comparison) and another in non-program (control) villages (out-of-village comparison). We also conduct a placebo test comparing non-beneficiaries in the two counterfactual groups. The within-village comparison shows positive impact on several agricultural and economic indicators including access to agricultural information, value of harvest, on-farm diversity, labor productivity, annual net household income, per capita household consumption expenditure, household wealth, commercial orientation, and household dietary diversity score. We do not find a statistically significant impact on human indicators such as child and maternal nutrition. Estimates based on within-village, out-of-village, and placebo comparisons suggest important insights about the challenges in assessing the impact of agricultural programs in general and, specifically, participatory multi-intervention programs in the presence of sample (self-)selection and spillovers. Our study highlights important lessons learned to inform future program design and impact assessments.

Africa RISING in Mali – impact brief

Interventions/Innovations Africa RISING (AR) initiatives in Mali were implemented in Bougouni, Yanfolila, and Koutiala cercles (administrative units) in the Sikasso region of the country. The initiatives included an ambitious cropping systems component focused on the adoption of improved crop varieties (sorghum, groundnut, okra, eggplant, and tomato) and farming methods (cereal-legume intercropping, cereal-vegetable intercropping, and fertilizer microdosing). Livestock system interventions aimed at improving small ruminant production through improved feeding and vaccination, while natural resource management activities concentrated on the reduction of soil erosion through contour bunding. Program interventions also included a series of nutrition-oriented trainings directed to extension workers and women as well as the establishment of nutrition support groups.

Impacts of Africa RISING in Mali

This study evaluates the impact of Africa RISING, a sustainable intensification (SI) program, implemented in Bougouni, Yanfolila, and Koutiala cercles in southern Mali beginning in 2012. Using a participatory action research framework, the program validated and promoted alternative SI options including fertilized groundnut and sorghum, crop-legume intercropping, intercropping of two compatible legumes, access to extension services, and fertilizer microdosing, while preserving ecosystem services in the face of projected population growth and climatic changes. Impact is estimated on several SI indicators and domains using two rounds of quasi-experimental panel data (surveys conducted in 2014 and 2022) and difference-in-differences techniques. The unique study design allows us to estimate the impact of Africa RISINg by comparing outcomes among program beneficiaries with two different counterfactual groups—one located inside program villages (within-village comparison) and another in non-program (control) villages (out-of-village comparison) on several indicators across five SI domains— environment, productivity, economic, human, and social. We also conduct a placebo test comparing non-beneficiaries in the two counterfactual groups. We find no statistically significant differences among households in the within-village and out-of-village comparisons, most likely because of misreporting of program participation. Overall comparisons between households in target and non-target villages show a positive impact of AR on environmental variables such as access to extension services, implementation of intercropping techniques, and adoption of improved crops; on productivity variables such as green bean yield; and on economic variables such as an increase in the non-agricultural wealth index; but no statistically significant effect on human and social indicators, namely household dietary diversity, food consumption scores, and nutritional indicators for children 0–59 months old and women 15–49 years old. Estimates based on within-village, out-of-village, and placebo comparisons suggest important insights about the challenges in assessing the impact of agricultural programs in general and, specifically, participatory multi-intervention programs in the presence of sample (self-)selection and spillovers. Our study highlights useful empirical lessons learned to inform future program design and impact assessments.

2023 China and global food policy report: Promoting sustainable healthy diets for transforming agrifood systems

The current situation of global food and nutrition security is increasingly worrisome, and it is unfortunate that progress in eliminating hunger, food insecurity, and multiple forms of malnutrition has been hindered or even reversed by recent global events. It is estimated that globally, 702 million to 828 million people (8.9 to 10.5 percent) suffered from hunger in 2021, with 150 million added during the COVID-19 pandemic. Approximately 2.3 billion people are in a state of moderate or severe food insecurity, with 11.7 percent facing severe food insecurity. Nearly 3.1 billion people could not afford a healthy diet, which is an increase of 112 million from the last year. The causes of food insecurity are multifaceted, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the crisis in Ukraine,and climate change. Simultaneously, income levels have been adversely affected, and prices have risen, reducing people’s ability to purchase food and making it unaffordable. Therefore, it is imperative for governments and other stakeholders to act collectively to improve the state of global food and nutritional health. Many countries, including China, have begun to pay more attention to the issue of agrifood systems and are proposing a transition to the multidimensional goals of nutrition and health, green and low-carbon, efficiency, resilience, and inclusiveness. At the international level, a series of high-level international conferences and action plans, such as the UN Food Systems Summit, the Nutrition for Growth Summit, and UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) in 2021 and COP27 in 2022, have demonstrated the importance and urgency of promoting the transformation of agrifood systems. These conferences advocated for countries to work together to transform the way food is produced and consumed to build healthier, sustainable, and equitable food systems. At the domestic level, China has always regarded food security as a top priority for national development. In 2022, the total annual national grain output reached 686.53 million tons and has remained stable for eight consecutive years at more than 650 million tons. In 2022, the Chinese government emphasized the need to “establish a big food concept” and “strengthen the foundation of food security in all aspects” from the perspective of putting people first and better meeting their increasingly diversified food consumption needs. In light of the various risks and challenges posed by the contemporary era, safeguarding food security necessitates a shift from a narrow focus on food production to a more comprehensive consideration of the entire food supply chain. This entails promoting the development of a diversified food supply system and expanding the focus from mere quantity to encompassing multiple objectives related to the “quantity, structure, and quality” of food. Such an approach will serve to bolster the foundations of food security on all fronts.

La seguridad alimentaria y el comercio agroalimentario en América Latina y el Caribe

América Latina y el Caribe es un importante protagonista en la producción y el comercio de productos agroalimentarios, ya que es el principal exportador neto de estos productos. La región cuenta con los recursos naturales (tierra, agua y energía renovable) y la capacidad necesaria para producir alimentos de manera sostenible y para satisfacer sus necesidades y abastecer al mundo. Sin embargo, durante 2021, la inseguridad alimentaria moderada o grave afectó al 40,6% de la población en la región (267,7 millones de personas), cifra considerablemente superior al promedio mundial (29,3%). Aumentar la productividad es fundamental para mejorar la situación y alcanzar la seguridad alimentaria, pero con frecuencia no es suficiente. El propósito de este estudio es analizar el impacto del comercio intrarregional de alimentos en América Latina y el Caribe y su contribución a la seguridad alimentaria en la región, así como identificar oportunidades para expandir el comercio intrarregional de alimentos nutritivos. Synopsis: Latin America and the Caribbean is the world’s largest net exporting region for agrifood products, yet the region faces immediate challenges to food security. Increasing intraregional trade presents an opportunity to eradicate hunger in the region. This brief provides a synopsis of key findings from a recent FAO-IFPRI report, La Seguridad Alimentaria y el Comercio Agroalimentario en América Latina y el Caribe (Food Security and Agrifood Trade in Latin America and the Caribbean), which examines the potential for expanding intraregional trade in LAC, and offers recommendations on the way forward. The record also includes a synopsis: Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO); and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 2023. Food security and agrifood trade in Latin America and the Caribbean: Synopsis. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294615

Innovations for inclusive and sustainable growth of domestic food value chains: Fruits and vegetables value chains in Nigeria scoping report

Fruits & vegetable value chains (F&V VC) in Nigeria hold significant potential to continue toward sustainable, inclusive food system transformation. Domestic food system growth, including that of F&V, remains crucial in achieving a healthy food environment and serving as a source of various micronutrients. There is a need for bundles of innovations to address multiple challenges along F&V VC in Nigeria, characterized by a set of challenges that are unique to developing countries and F&V. V&F VC consists of many small actors, farmers, and traders, whereby limited vertical coordination can lead to significant efficiency loss along the value chain. Seasonal and temporal variations in supply-demand gaps for F&V commodities are substantial, and considerable scope exists for reducing losses and enhancing the overall efficiency of the domestic F&V sector. Policy environments are also favorable for such efforts, as the latest Agricultural Policy documents highlight the Nigerian government’s interest in modernizing F&V VC. Given the significant involvement of women and youths in the sector, F&V VC development has substantial potential to contribute to Nigeria’s inclusive development of agrifood systems. The current domestic F&V VC in Nigeria suffers from various sets of problems. Access to quality seeds is limited due to the significant use of recycled seeds, limited supply, and high costs of certified seeds. Cooling practices are inefficient due to insufficient access to the grid and off-grid electricity, limited knowledge of intermediate cooling methods applicable at the farm gate, and constraining quality preservations at farm gate storage, during transportation, and storage at market premises. Processing is insufficient due to the high costs of processing equipment and limited knowledge of the construction and operation of simpler, less resource-dependent processing facilities, including drying of F&V commodities. Inappropriate packing, such as the use of Rafia baskets instead of Reusable Plastic Crates, which are commonly recognized, is still prevalent, potentially due to limited market coordination. Based on the stakeholder consultations, desk reviews, validation workshops, and availability of external resources, we identified the following as critical interventions to pilot various innovation bundles. Intervention #1 provides improved varieties and quality seeds, combined with agronomy training and certification, in northern Nigeria through the collaboration with East West Seeds and Wageningen University & Research. Intervention #2 provides off-grid cooling and cool transportation, including forced-air evaporative cooling units at farm clusters and the combination of small and large refrigerated trucks for local and longer-distance transportation, through the collaboration with ColdHubs and MIT-Lab. Intervention #3 introduces improved solar dryers and provides training on appropriate, hygienic processing methods, building, and utilization of these driers (possibly combined with the introduction of a business model), through the collaboration with World Vegetable Center and Nigerian Stored Products Research Institute. Intervention #4 provides plastic crates using various rental arrangements and improves market access for farmers through collaboration with private companies, including Bunkasa. Intervention #5 supplements interventions #1, #2, and #3 and provides improved information through certification and labeling. Lastly, Intervention #6 strengthens linkages between existing solar powered cold storages to supplement other interventions.

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, October 2023

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi with the goal of providing clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. The reports are intended as a resource for those interested in maize markets in Malawi, namely producers, traders, consumers, policy makers, and other agricultural stakeholders.

IFPRI research and engagement: Climate change and agrifood systems

Climate change poses unprecedented challenges to the world’s food systems. Rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events threaten agricultural production and the biodiversity and ecosystem services that underpin agriculture. Within food systems, climate change affects processing, storage, transport, and retailing of food and affects our food environments. These growing climate risks impact food security, nutrition, and human health, as well as equity and livelihoods, with poor food producers and consumers hit hardest. They make food systems a riskier source of income and reduce the availability of food — worsening poverty and inequity, disrupting livelihoods, and contributing to hunger and malnutrition. At the same time, food systems are failing to provide healthy diets for all, and are generating one-third of human-caused greenhouse gases. Solutions must address this complex nexus of problems. Climate change adaptation and resilience-building efforts for food systems must be accelerated to reverse growing malnutrition, ensure that all people can access healthy diets, and provide sustainable livelihoods. At the same time, efforts to transform food systems work to reduce their environmental footprint. Farmers and small businesses along food value chains in low- and middle-income countries will have to adapt their practices to a climate marked by extreme weather events and changing seasonal patterns in order to meet growing and changing food demand, while also contributing to mitigation. Support for this critical transformation requires not only the development, dissemination, and adoption of appropriate low-emissions, climate-smart technologies and practices, but also a focus on the policies, institutions, governance, and behavior change that can promote sustainable, inclusive food systems.

From climate risk to resilience: Unpacking the economic impacts of climate change in Mozambique

Mozambique is already vulnerable to extreme weather events and climate change is projected to exacerbate their frequency and intensity. The occurrence of cyclones and flooding has increased in recent years and the trend is expected to continue. The country’s coast—where 60 percent of the population, the three biggest cities, and critical infrastructure are situated—is most exposed to climate change-related risks, including damage from cyclones and projected sea level rise. Densely populated and low-lying regions, such as Zambezia, Nampula, Sofala, and Maputo Provinces, are particularly exposed to risks from flooding. More broadly, climate change is projected to increase average temperatures across the country and to result in higher variability in precipitation, especially in the south. The most critical economic sectors vulnerable to climate change in Mozambique are agriculture, transport, and potentially energy. In agriculture, maize is likely to be the most affected key crop. This can pose risks to food security (alongside expected higher food inflation because of climate change), given maize’s widespread cultivation and role in nutrition. The impact on other crops is likely to be more limited, and to a large extent driven by damages from increased frequency of extreme weather events. This could exacerbate challenges in the sector, which is already constrained by low productivity and limited arable areas. That said, climate change could create some opportunities; for example, rice yields are projected to improve. Most studies project agricultural production in the central region to be most adversely affected by climate change, albeit the impact varies by crop and within regions. Mozambique’s transport infrastructure is highly vulnerable to climate change due to the projected increase in flooding, the low proportion of paved roads, their limited interconnectivity, and the vulnerability of ports to cyclones and storm surges. Damages to Mozambique’s transport sector are likely to have knock-on effects to other sectors and can have significant regional implications, as the country serves as a conduit for landlocked neighboring countries. Infrastructure damages, alongside the projected coastal erosion, may severely affect the tourism sector. Furthermore, Mozambique’s high dependence on hydropower exposes it to losses from rainfall variability, which is expected to increase. The country’s largest hydropower plant is located downstream on the Zambezi River, which various studies project to dry up due to climate change. Increased water use in upstream countries (such as because of greater irrigation needs and in response to growing populations) could also pose risks to Mozambique’s hydropower sector.