Publications and Datasets

Use of digital tools in Kenya’s potato value chains: Qualitative perspectives from a field visit in Nakuru County

Potato farmers in Kenya face a multitude of challenges throughout the value chain, including limited access to quality seeds and fertilizers, inadequate storage and postharvest handling facilities, and fluctuating market prices. These issues are particularly acute for women and youth, who face additional barriers due to persistent social inequalities in the agricultural sector. Digital tools—such as smartphones, smart sensors, or tools involving remote sensing and GIS mobile mapping, as well as applications for agricultural information, e-marketplaces, e-learning platforms, and digital financing platforms—hold significant potential to address these challenges. For instance, these tools can provide access to valuable agricultural information, weather forecasts, and best management practices, helping farmers make in formed decisions and improve crop management. Mobile apps and platforms can facilitate market access by connecting farmers directly with buyers, which can reduce price fluctuations and ensure fair returns on their produce through price information. Digital tools can also play a crucial role in addressing post harvest losses by providing real-time monitoring and management of storage conditions, helping farmers optimize storage to reduce spoilage and wastage. Additionally, digital platforms can provide farmers with information on proper postharvest handling techniques, including sorting, grading, and packaging, to ensure that potatoes are well processed, prepared, packaged, and marketed with minimal losses. However, the adoption of these tools has been slow in Africa south of the Sahara, hindered by infrastructural gaps, high costs, and low digital literacy, thereby limiting their scalability and impact (Aker et al. 2016, Aker and Cariolle 2022, Abate et al. 2023).

Understanding the diffusion pattern of potato varieties in India

Nigeria school feeding program: Baseline farmers’ survey instrument

Nigeria school feeding program: Baseline cooks’ survey instrument

Nigeria school feeding program: Train the trainers training manual

Nigeria school feeding program: Baseline school administrators’ survey instrument

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – October 2024

The rapidly evolving food security situation in Myanmar requires a high frequency, systematic and comprehensive approach to monitoring. The Myanmar monthly food price report synthesizes food price trends using publicly available datasets, focusing on key agricultural crops and highlighting regional differences in rice prices. By analyzing these trends, the report aims to provide insights into the broader agricultural market and the factors driving food price fluctuations in Myanmar.

Nigeria school feeding program: Pre- and post-test training quiz questions for cooks

Resilient Cities urban nutrition profile: Philippines

Child stunting is a persistent problem in the Philippines. While stunting prevalence is higher in rural than in urban areas, it still affects one in four children under the age of five in urban areas and coexists with rising overweight in school-age children, adolescents, and adults. Some urban nutrition interventions have focused on reducing diet-related noncommunicable disease (NCD) risks, but they have not addressed the challenges of the double burden of malnutrition (DBM) (e.g., the coexistence of problems of undernutrition and overnutrition) in school-age children and adolescents. Likewise, the lack of evidence on interventions in the urban food environment (FE) signals a need for studies to better understand the role of FEs in driving unhealthy dietary changes and the DBM and to test approaches to shift consumption patterns toward healthier diets and lifestyles. NCDs are the leading cause of mortality in the Philippines, and NCD risks are higher in urban areas than rural ones. National policies support nutrition with multisectoral approaches, particularly through urban farming and gardening to promote healthy and affordable urban diets. Yet the urban-specific programs must be evaluated. Evaluations of urban agricultural initiatives are needed to document any impact on diets and nutrition and to assess the potential for scale up, especially given land scarcity in dense urban areas. Additionally, multisectoral double-duty actions must be developed to address all forms of malnutrition.

Healthy Diets: Practices, misconceptions, and expert recommendations

Program Description: This live radio interview, broadcast on Radio Fana (a leading government media outlet in Ethiopia), focused on the crucial role of healthy diets in overall well-being. The program, conducted in collaboration with the Mathewois Woldu Cancer Society – an organization dedicated to cancer awareness and prevention – explored the significance of nutrition in cancer prevention and overall health. As a leading nutrition expert, I was invited to share my insights on balanced eating habits, the impact of diet on preventing chronic diseases like cancer, and practical advice for maintaining a healthy lifestyle. The discussion also addressed common misconceptions surrounding food choices, clarified nutritional myths, and provided listeners with evidence-based guidance for making informed dietary decisions. The objective of the session was to equip the public with reliable information and to promote healthier eating habits across Ethiopia, ultimately contributing to better health outcomes and cancer prevention. The collaboration with the Mathewois Woldu Cancer Society underscored the importance of nutrition in the fight against cancer and the empowerment of the community through knowledge.

Resilient Cities urban nutrition profile: Ethiopia

Key Messages -Undernutrition has declined over time, but stunting still affects 40 percent of rural children and 25 percent of urban children. -Micronutrient deficiencies—especially deficiencies in folate, zinc and Vitamin D—are a critical concern, particularly for urban women and girls. -Dietary quality is low in both rural and urban areas: while urban diets are moderately more diverse than rural ones, rising consumption of unhealthy foods is more of a concern than in rural areas at this time. -The cost of consuming a healthy diet in Ethiopia increased from US $2.83 to $3.72 from 2017—2022, and over half of the population is currently unable to afford a healthy diet. -Concurrent conflict and climate shocks are causing acute nutritional needs in some regions. Humanitarian food aid is key to reducing food insecurity and should be provided to households without access to land who rely on income for food purchases, such as those in urban areas. -Overweight and obesity are still uncommon among young children but are increasing rapidly among urban women. In urban areas, 20 percent of women are overweight, compared to 4 percent in rural areas. The rise in urban overweight is driven by lifestyle changes associated with urbanization and unhealthy food environments, which are associated with poor quality diets and reduced physical activity. -Overnutrition and diet-related noncommunicable diseases are especially prevalent in Addis Ababa. -Food safety is a challenge, and evidence is lacking on how to improve vendor safety knowledge and practices to protect consumer health. -National social protection programs often fail to reach the urban poor and lack explicit nutrition interventions in urban areas. -There is a need to design and test urban nutrition interventions that address both over and undernutrition (such as double-duty actions) in urban populations.

Resilient Cities urban nutrition profile: Bangladesh

Urban-rural disparities in undernutrition in children under five have dissipated. Stunting declined from 2014 to 2022 in both urban and rural areas, but more so in rural areas, leading to comparable rates of stunting in urban and rural areas (22 percent, 24 percent). Wasting remains “high” (according to the World Health Organization) in both urban and rural areas (11 percent). The prevalence of child overweight is low but increasing, especially in Dhaka. Vitamin A deficiency affects half of children under five. Vitamin D and iron deficiencies are higher in urban areas, with zinc and iodine deficiencies more prevalent in rural areas. Urban and rural diets lack fruits and vegetables. A third of urban households have inadequate caloric intake. The cost of a healthy diet increased from $3.03 to $3.64 per person per day from 2017– 2022 and the percentage of the population unable to afford a healthy diet fell from 65 to 48 percent. Currently, 82 million people are unable to afford a healthy diet in the country. The diet diversity of young children has improved since 2011, but gains were seen mostly in rural areas. The percentage of all children fed the minimum meal frequency dropped by 20 percentage points from 2017 to 2022. Urban informal settlements are a concern – children have higher rates of stunting, lower dietary diversity, and higher prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies compared to other urban children. Overweight and obesity in urban adults is a critical problem. More urban women (48 percent) are overweight compared to rural women (35 percent); the same is true for urban men (29 percent) compared to 17 percent for rural men. Some urban nutrition interventions to tackle child undernutrition are being implemented, but few have been rigorously evaluated. Data on urban food environments (FEs) is becoming more available, but there are gaps in knowledge, particularly on the design and evaluation of interventions to counter the influence of the country’s increasingly obesogenic urban FE. National policies include targeted actions to improve urban diets and nutrition. More could be done, however, to improve the healthiness and safety of FEs, leverage social protection programs for the urban poor to make healthy diets more affordable, and to implement double-duty actions to address all forms of malnutrition.

Resilient Cities urban nutrition profile: Sri Lanka

Key Messages Child stunting has declined in both rural and urban areas since 2016, but still affects a third of children on estates. Wasting prevalence has increased dramatically since 2016, reaching an alarming prevalence of 20 percent in urban areas. There is insufficient intake of nutritious foods, particularly in rural areas, and diet quality is negatively influenced by obesogenic food environments as the urbanization process continues. The cost of a healthy diet increased from $3.58 to $4.77 per person per day from 2017 to 2022, and 41 percent of the population is unable to afford a healthy diet. The prevalence of overweight, obesity and noncommunicable diseases is increasing nationally with higher burdens of overweight and obesity in urban populations and among women. National nutrition policies reference urban areas but do not adequately address the dual challenges of undernutrition (such as wasting) and overnutrition (such as overweight, obesity, and NCDs) common to urban contexts. Evidence is lacking on how to effectively address the double burden of malnutrition, yet clearly double-duty actions to address all forms of malnutrition will be essential.

Resilient cities urban nutrition profile: Peru

Key Messages -Peru has made significant strides in reducing the burden of stunting, but progress has stalled: 8 percent of urban children and 20 percent of rural children are stunted. -Overweight and obesity in women have been highly prevalent for more than a decade, with no signs of improvement; they affected 66 percent of urban and 61 percent of rural women in 2023). The problem also affects school-age children, adolescents, and adult men. -Peru has the third highest urban sugar intake among eight countries in the region, but saturated fat intake is comparatively lower than the regional average (6.5% of total energy compared to 9.7%). Among all adults, consumption of fruits and vegetables is low. -The cost of a healthy diet increased from $3.28 to $4.00 per person per day from 2017 to 2022, and 34% of the total population is unable to afford a healthy diet. -Urban food environment (FE) studies, which mostly focus on Lima, Peru’s capital, should be expanded to other urban areas (e.g., smaller urban areas and Amazonia) and to rural areas where FEs have also started to undergo rapid changes. -Research is needed to better understand how level of urbanicity, region (Amazon/Andean), ethnicity, or settlement type intersect to affect nutrition and diets. -Evidence regarding the success of urban nutrition interventions is inconsistent and there is limited guidance on how nutrition programs can be adapted to urban contexts. -Double-duty actions to address poor diets and the multiple forms of malnutrition that are affecting both urban and rural areas are urgently needed. These should include a redesign of social protection programs to ensure that they focus on healthy foods and meals and address all forms of malnutrition, especially among school-age children and women. -While Peru has nutrition policies that both cover urban dwellers and encourage consumer demand for healthier diets and improved access to food, these programs should be adapted to effectively do double duty in preventing all forms of malnutrition, particularly overweight. -Policy implementation and enforcement must be strengthened to address obesogenic FEs. In addition, accompanying interventions that target children and adolescents and innovations that stimulate consumer demand for healthier and more sustainable diets are needed.

The socioeconomic impact of armed conflict on Sudanese urban households: Evidence from a National Urban Household Survey

Eighteen months of war have deeply affected urban households in Sudan: 31 percent have been displaced, full-time employment has plummeted by half, over 70 percent of the urban households in Sudan had all or some of school-aged kids stop attending school, and only one out of seven urban households can access full health services—concluded a new joint study from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), launched today. “The Socioeconomic Impact of Armed Conflict on Sudanese Urban Households” study provides a comprehensive assessment of how the ongoing conflict affects urban households in Sudan. With two-thirds of the fighting concentrated in cities of over 100,000 people, understanding impacts of the war on urban livelihoods is crucial for addressing both immediate economic challenges and long-term development obstacles. The study is based on analyses of a comprehensive survey of urban households across the country that both organizations conducted between May 2024 and July 2024, including 3,000 households.

Nutrition and diet profile: Benin

Key Findings: -In Benin, undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies are prevalent, and the prevalence of overweight and obesity is increasing. -Diets in Benin have declined in quality over time, particularly among children. For example, low dietary diversity and inadequate fruit and vegetable consumption are prevalent. -Food-based dietary guidelines exist; however, awareness of the guidelines is unknown. -Most nutrition policies in Benin lack guidance on promoting fruit and vegetable intake. -Stronger evidence related to how to improve diet quality and combat malnutrition in Benin is needed to develop relevant interventions and policies.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural crop traders – June 2024 survey

To document changes in the mid-stream of Myanmar’s food value chains, a phone survey of commodity traders was conducted in June 2024 with a sample of 187 active traders in 12 states and regions. Key Findings: -Cellphone network challenges rival transportation challenges in both their prevalence and impact, affecting more than half the traders and doubling since 2023. -More than 30 percent of traders reported being affected by exchange rate volatility and inflation, export/import challenges, and local and regional conflict. Notably, most encountered these shocks in April, May, and June 2024. -Reported credit challenges are at their highest points in the past three years. The proportion of traders offering credit to farmers has decreased, and for some, the credit terms have shifted to higher interest rates and extended loan durations. -Prices for the six most common commodities in our data have increased markedly in the past two years. Trader sales prices of rice were three times higher in June 2024 than in April 2022. -Margins in June 2024 were 0.8 points higher than in April 2023. Rising trading margins could reflect increasing transport or transactions costs in trading, and are generally a negative sign for agrifood system efficiency. Looking Ahead: -Communication challenges in cellphone networks together with widespread transport disruptions could lead to inefficiencies in spatial arbitrage and widening gaps between consumer and producer prices. -Credit challenges are increasing and rising prices will place greater financial stress on the farmers and traders alike. -More than 40 percent of traders consider the general inflation and exchange rate volatility as a negative shock that reduces their business revenues. This survey was conducted before a large currency devaluation in informal markets and widespread flooding in Myanmar impacting agricultural production and livelihoods. These shocks add additional stress to the food system.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, October 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi to provide clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. All prices are reported in Malawi Kwacha (K). Highlights • Retail prices of maize increased by 4 percent in October. • Maize prices were lowest in the Northern region and highest in the Southern region. • ADMARC sales were reported in 5 of the 26 markets monitored by IFPRI. • ADMARC purchases were reported in 4 markets. • Retail prices of maize in Malawi were lower than most neighboring countries at the market exchange rate.

Rural-urban diet convergence in Bangladesh

This paper seeks to bring concepts from economic geography and human geography into closer dialogue and apply them to the analysis of food systems. We analyze temporal and spatial patterns of diet trans formation in Bangladesh using data from nationally representative household surveys. We conceptualize diet transformation as a ‘triangle’ comprised of three elements (food purchases, diet diversification, and processed food consumption), influenced by four conditioners (time, income, non-farm employment, and space). We find that: (1) Diets are converging over time and space. food purchases, non-staples, and processed foods occupy high shares of food consumption value, irrespective of urban or rural location. Controlling for income, rural landless households and households in urban areas have very similar diets. Households in ‘peripheral’ and ‘non-peripheral’ rural areas experience similar levels of diet transformation. (2) Food purchases and processed food consumption are conditioned mainly by non-farm employment (NFE). (3) Diet diversification is positively associated with income, but not with NFE or land ownership. We characterize the spatial convergence of diets as an outcome of ‘time-space compression’ (the accelerating volume and velocity of economic and social transactions resulting from advances in transport and communications technology), and the distinct form of peri-urbanization under conditions of extremely high population density found in Bangladesh.

Medium-scale livestock farms in Asia’s rapidly transforming food systems

Academic and policy debates on agriculture emphasize a bimodal typology of ‘small-scale’ and ‘large-scale’ farms. In this article, we draw attention to the role and distinct characteristics of medium-scale monogastric livestock farms in the Global South, drawing on an empirically grounded typology of scale that incorporates three linked components: (1) Social and economic organization of production; (2) Technological choice and environmental impacts, and; (3) Food system linkages and spillovers. We review national livestock sector policy documents from three Asian countries – Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Vietnam – with reference to the typology, and compare assumptions embedded in the policies with the characteristics of farm scale revealed by the typology. Our analysis indicates that current policy goals are not well aligned with the characteristics of medium-scale livestock farming in the region. This disconnect presents a missed opportunity to enhance the livestock sector’s contributions to rural economies, nutrition security, food safety, and environmental performance. We conclude with examples of how policies could maintain and enhance medium-scale monogastriclivestock farms’ contributions to sustainable intensification, public health, and livelihoods.

Adapting to climate change: The case of saline tolerant seed varieties in coastal Bangladesh

Salt water intrusion and rising soil salnity are threatening food and livelihood security of paddy farmers in coastal Bangladesh. Visible manifestations of these challenges are degraded soils and chronic decline in tradtional farming, as it is becoming an increasingly infeasible means of livelihood. Promoting saline-tolerant paddy varieties (STRV) has been one of the major focuses of the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) and the attention to the problem has been intensified in recent years through a partnerhsip with a consortium of CGIAR centers. Howewer, robust empirical analysis has hitherto been limited. Using farm level data, this paper analyzes the determinants and impacts of the adopting these new varieties. We use a multi-variate logit model to identify the constraints to adoption, and Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and Endogeneous Switching Regression methods to assess the impacts on yeilds, and net income of the paddy farmers. Results show that adopting saline-tolerant rice varieties raises crop yield by an average of 1 to 2 tons per hectare, equivalent to a net income increase of about US$100 per hectare of cultivated land. Yet, adoption rates remain low due to several institutional constraints and perhaps a lack of nudging farmers in the scaling up strategies. Robustness of the results are tested, and the implications are discussed.

Gendered drivers of varietal turnover: A qualitative assessment for improved teff and wheat varieties in Ethiopia

Limited adoption of agricultural technologies such as improved crop varieties has been a challenge for increasing crop productivity in low-income countries. We study drivers of varietal turnover by conducting gender-disaggregated focus group discussions and semi-structured interviews with teff and wheat farmers, and key informant interviews with public and private seed actors, in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. We find that attributes specific not only to production and sales, but also to processing and consumption (such as color, texture, moisture, and taste) are key drivers for varietal uptake among both men and women farmers. In relative terms, processing and consumption attributes are more important to women than men farmers. Gender and social status are usually linked to access to resources (such as inputs or information about newly released varieties) that could become an important driver of uptake. Women’s and men’s prior experiences with improved varieties also influence adoption. For instance, farmers that experience crop losses when using new varieties during a drought reportedly become more risk averse in future decisions to adopt new improved varieties. Overall, the findings imply the need to adopt seed development and marketing strategies that pay close attention to the preferences of both producers and consumers, such as considering the importance of consumption attributes (e.g., not altering local recipes) and encouraging farmers to first experiment with new varieties on parts of their plots before adopting at scale or providing a risk management tool (e.g., insurance) that can protect farmers from potential risks associated with new technologies.

Challenges for private sector job matching in rural Egypt: Results from a survey of Forsa employers

Increasing formal employment for youth and women is a key goal of the Forsa pilot graduation intervention and Egyptian government policy in general. As detailed in Forsa evaluation reports, matching Takaful beneficiaries with jobs in the private sector is a major challenge on the household and on the beneficiary level. In this policy note, however, we examine the challenges from the perspective of potential employers. We review literature of the market failures that may contribute to difficulties with job matching in rural Egypt and present results from a small telephone survey of Forsa employers.

Nature+ Quantitative Baseline Household & Worker Survey, Kenya

In 2023, the Nature Positive Solutions (Nature+) baseline survey was conducted in Kenya, focusing on the Counties of Kisumu, Vihiga, and Kajiado. The study aimed to describe the socio-economic conditions and agricultural systems in these areas, providing a baseline assessment to inform ongoing Nature+ interventions. The survey covered 1,502 smallholder farmer households (752 treated and 750 control) across 25 villages. Data collection employed a two-stage sampling technique and assessed various variables, including socio-economic characteristics, agricultural practices, land use, nutrition, and adoption of Nature+ practices. This data will support the evaluation of Nature+’s impacts on inclusion, poverty reduction, food security, livelihoods, and environmental sustainability. Additionally, the survey included interviews with 1056 workers, covering socio-demographic characteristics, contract types, forced labor, harassment, workplace health and safety, wages, and overtime. All monetary variables are expressed in Kenyan Shilling (KSH).

Nature+ Quantitative Baseline Household and Worker Survey, Viet Nam

In 2023, the Nature Positive Solutions (Nature+) baseline survey was conducted in Vietnam, focusing on the districts of Sa Pa and Mai Son. The study aimed to describe the socio-economic conditions and agricultural systems in these areas, providing a baseline assessment to inform ongoing Nature+ interventions. The survey covered 1,153 smallholder farmer households (858 treated and 295 control) across 23 villages. Data collection employed a two-stage sampling technique and assessed various variables, including socio-economic characteristics, agricultural practices, land use, nutrition, and adoption of Nature+ practices. This data will support the evaluation of Nature+’s impacts on inclusion, poverty reduction, food security, livelihoods, and environmental sustainability. Additionally, the survey included interviews with 334 workers, covering socio-demographic characteristics, contract types, forced labor, harassment, workplace health and safety, wages, and overtime. Furthermore, community-level data were collected through interviews conducted by the team’s supervisors in all 23 surveyed villages. Each discussion involved at least three community leaders as key informants.

A framework for cost-effectiveness analysis of greenhouse gas mitigation measures in dairy industry with an application to dairy farms in China

Crowding in private quality: The equilibrium effects of public spending in education

We estimate the equilibrium effects of a public school grant program administered through school councils in Pakistani villages with multiple public and private schools and clearly defined catchment boundaries. The program was randomized at the village level, allowing us to estimate its causal impact on the market. Four years after the start of the program, test scores were 0.2 standard deviations higher in public schools. We find evidence of an education multiplier: test scores in private schools were also 0.2 standard deviations higher in treated markets. Consistent with standard models of product differentiation, the education multiplier is greater for those private schools that faced a greater threat to their market power. Accounting for private sector responses increases the program’s cost-effectiveness by 85% and affects how a policy maker would target spending. Given that markets with several public and private schools are now pervasive in low- and middle-income countries, prudent policy requires us to account for private sector responses to public policy, both in policies’ design and evaluation.

Computer vision–assisted dietary assessment through mobile phones in female youth in urban Ghana: Validity against weighed records and comparison with 24-h recalls

Background Gaps persist in the data on diets and on the validity of dietary assessment methods in youth in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) due to costs constraints. Although computer vision–assisted dietary assessment tools have been proposed, limited evidence exists on their validity in LMICs. Objectives This study aimed to validate FRANI (Food Recognition Assistance and Nudging Insights), a mobile phone application with computer vision–assisted dietary assessment, against weighed records (WRs) and compare with 24-h recalls (24HR), in female youth in Ghana. Methods Dietary intake was assessed on 2 nonconsecutive days using FRANI, WR, and 24HR in females aged 18–24 y recruited at the University of Ghana, Accra (n = 64). Equivalence was examined by comparing intake mean ratios (FRANI/WR and 24HR/WR) with error margins of 10%, 15%, and 20%, using mixed-effect regression models adjusting for repeated measures. Agreement between methods was assessed using the concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). Results Equivalence for FRANI and WR was found at 10% bound for riboflavin and vitamin B-6 intakes and at 15% bound for protein, fat, calcium, folate, iron, thiamine, vitamin C, and zinc intakes. Energy, fiber, vitamin A, and niacin intakes were equivalent at 20% bound. Comparisons between 24HR and WR found no estimates within a 10% bound. Protein, iron, niacin, riboflavin, and zinc intakes were equivalent at a 15% bound; folate, thiamine, and vitamin B-12 intakes were equivalent at a 20% bound. CCCs between FRANI and WR ranged from 0.45 to 0.74 (mean: 0.60) and between 24HR and WR ranged from 0.48 to 0.76 (mean: 0.63). Omission errors were 15% for FRANI and 22% for 24HR. Intrusion errors were 22% for FRANI and 18% for 24HR. Conclusions FRANI-assisted dietary assessment accurately estimates nutrient intake and performed as accurately as 24HR in female youth in Ghana. Although improvements in computer vision–assisted diet assessment are possible, emerging evidence on FRANI suggests its readiness for scale-up.

Food environment research in Sri Lanka: A desk review

Key Findings • Research has documented the availability of modern food retail (e.g. fast-food) in both urban and rural contexts, and its influence especially on adolescents. • Barriers to accessing healthy diets include the high cost of nutritious foods, especially vegetables and animal source foods, the time needed to cook fresh meals, and food safety • Most research to date has utilized cross-sectional designs, with relatively few studies examining associations with diet or health outcomes, or evaluating interventions.

Improving resource targeting in Niger: Joint financial analysis and food system mapping

This policy brief combines the results of a food system mapping exercise with an analysis of financial flows into Niger’s food system from 2019 to 2022 to inform policymaking for food system transformation. The food system mapping reveals several critical points of failure, from low agricultural productivity and inefficient supply chains to poor nutritional outcomes and environmental degradation. Analysis of domestic and international financial flows to the food system reveals that climate adaptation and nutrition are underfunded areas. Understanding these weaknesses can help policymakers and development partners take a more coordinated and strategic approach to addressing the challenges facing Niger’s food system and can inform more effective resource allocation, ensuring that resources support long-term food security and sustainability.

Africa pathway to food systems transformation: Challenges and opportunities

This paper explores the pathways to transforming food systems in Africa, focusing on the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. It examines the current state of food systems, highlighting issues such as food and nutrition security, environmental degradation, low agricultural productivity, limited availability and adoption of yield-increasing technologies, high malnutrition rates, violent conflicts and threats to peace and security, and inadequate governance. The paper emphasizes the need for policy reform, technological innovation, and capacity building to drive sustainable and inclusive food systems. Key drivers of change include policies promoting sustainable practices, increased funding for agricultural research, and improved market access through infrastructure development and trade policies. Good governance practices, including transparency, accountability, and inclusive decision-making, are crucial for effective policy implementation and stakeholder collaboration. Recommendations include empowering women and youth, supporting community-led initiatives, and leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to enhance intraAfrican trade. By adopting these strategies, Africa can build resilient, equitable, and sustainable food systems.

Experimental measures of intra-household resource control

We study experimental measures of preferences for intra-household resource control among 3387 couples in Ghana and Uganda. We implement two incentivized tasks: (1) a game that measures willingness to pay for resource control in the household, and (2) dictator games played privately and jointly by spouses. Across study sites we find that women exhibit a higher willingness to pay for resource control than their husbands and have less influence over joint dictator game decisions. Importantly, behavior in the two tasks is correlated, suggesting that they capture similar underlying latent variables. In Uganda, experimental measures from both tasks are also robustly correlated with a range of survey measures of women’s access to resources, agency, and wellbeing. This is not the case in Ghana, suggesting that contextual factors may be important, and researchers may want to collect both measures in a project. Like other recent papers, we find that an important fraction of respondents display negative willingness to pay for intra-household resource control. Our analysis shows that such behavior is displayed by women who have higher levels of economic empowerment and wellbeing, a result that contradicts previous conjectures made in the literature. Altogether, our analysis suggests that, despite lacking ideal theoretical properties, private dictator game decisions (even when collected only from the wife) can perform well as proxies of empowerment. JEL Codes: C9, D13, J12, J16

How do women’s empowerment metrics measure up? A comparative analysis

Research has identified women’s empowerment as a critical factor for nutritional outcomes and a priority area for understanding women’s mental health status. At the same time, there is no consensus on how empowerment should be measured. The surrounding debate has produced several empowerment metrics that are widely used, yet we know little about whether they can be substituted for one another or their respective strengths and weaknesses. Using data collected from a single sample of women from rural, northern Kenya, we compare five empowerment metrics: The Project-level Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (pro-WEAI) and associated Health and Nutrition Module (HN), Women’s Empowerment in Nutrition Index (WENI), Women’s Empowerment in Livestock Index (WELI), and the Survey Based Women’s Empowerment Index (SWPER). The metrics have shared theoretical origins and are commonly used in the food, nutrition and health spaces to study rural women’s lives across low- and middle-income countries. We examine the metrics’ characteristics, distributions, pairwise correlations and capacity of each metric to predict outcomes often associated with the concept of empowerment: body mass index (BMI) and the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). We find striking differences between these common empowerment metrics. The metrics’ correlations with one another are highly variable as are the predictive capacities for both outcomes. Further, our analysis finds that the choice of metric can dramatically influence which individuals are identified as empowered. In sum, our results suggest that while these metrics are used in remarkably similar ways to understand rural women’s empowerment and its consequences, unless they are computed with many identical survey questions, the metrics do not capture the same underlying concept and are not interchangeable. We recommend that our work be replicated elsewhere and caution should be taken when implementing and interpreting research using these metrics, as findings may be highly sensitive to the choice of metric.

Mobile phones, income diversification, and poverty reduction in rural Bangladesh

The widespread adoption of mobile phones (MPs) presents the possibility of creating employment and self‐employment opportunities. Although several studies have documented the impact of MPs on income, the link between MP ownership and poverty reduction channeled by income diversification has not been fully explored. This paper aims to examine this relationship using nationally representative panel data and fixed effect models to account for confounding factors and unobserved heterogeneity. Results indicate that MP ownership is associated with increased income diversification, particularly through on‐farm and off‐farm self‐employment, as well as non‐earned income. This relationship is more pronounced in households with lower levels of education and deprived areas. In addition, owning a MP is also found to decrease poverty via income diversification. Therefore, policies aimed at enhancing access to mobile technologies could create a resilient income portfolio by decreasing transaction costs and improving market efficiency, ultimately mitigating poverty in rural regions.

Subjective well-being, willingness to accept COVID policies, and vulnerability: Evidence from China

Restoring functional integrity of the global production ecosystem through biological control

Human society is anchored in the global agroecosystem. For millennia, this system has provided humans with copious supplies of nutrient-rich food. Yet, through chemical intensification and simplification, vast shares of present-day farmland derive insufficient benefits from biodiversity and prove highly vulnerable to biotic stressors. Here, we argue that on-farm action centered on biological control can effectively defuse pest risk by bolstering foundational ecosystem services. By harnessing plant, animal and microbial biodiversity, biological control offers safe, efficacious and economically-sound plant health solutions and coevolved options for invasive species mitigation. In recent years, its scientific foundation has been fortified and solutions have been refined for myriad ecologically brittle systems. Yet, for biological control to be mainstreamed, it needs to be rebooted, intertwined with (on- and off-farm) agroecological tactics and refurbished – from research, policy and regulation, public-private partnerships up to modes of implementation. Misaligned incentives (for chemical pesticides) and adoption barriers further need to be removed, while its scientific underpinnings should become more interdisciplinary, policy-relevant, solution-oriented and linked with market demand. Thus, biological control could ensure human wellbeing in a nature-friendly manner and retain farmland ecological functioning under global change.

Endogenous technologies and productivity in rice production: Roles of social instability in Myanmar since 2021

Despite technologies’ critical roles in agricultural productivity, evidence is scarce on how conflict affects technology adoption and consequent agricultural productivity, often due to a lack of data in fragile states. Our study contributes to filling this knowledge gap by using unique large-scale data on rice producers before and after a military coup in Myanmar in 2021 that led to a significant increase in conflicts in the country. We find that the increase in violent events including those in adjacent townships significantly changed the rice production function in both factor-neutral and non-neutral ways. Specifically, increased violent events have been generally associated with downward factor-neutral shift in production function, and more importantly, increased output elasticity to agricultural capital (equipment) owned (in other words, reduced output resilience against capital ownership shocks). Our evidence also suggests that this has been led partly through reduced access to agricultural extension services, which would otherwise help farmers maintain productivity even with limited capital ownership by substituting it with human capital and skills. Our results consistently hold for both panel and cross-sectional production functions across various specifications and particularly in Lower Myanmar. Results also indicate that lower mechanization service fees partly mitigate these effects.

Impact evaluation of the economic inclusion programme in Kenya: Baseline report for cohort 2

Graduation and economic inclusion programs complement cash or food transfers with multisectoral investments in asset building, income generation, skill training, and access to financial services and markets to strengthen resilience and opportunity for households who are poor (Andrews et al., 2021). Compared to classic social assistance programs that offer regular cash or food transfers to ensure minimum consumption levels, these programs aim to enable beneficiaries to invest in assets and skills that can make them more productive. Following promising results from initial studies on multiple economic Photo Credit: Peter Lowe / CIMMYT and social outcomes (e.g., Banerjee et al., 2015; Bandiera et al., 2017; Banerjee et al., 2021), these graduation and economic inclusion programs are increasingly being taken up by governments to complement their national social assistance programs. In 2019 the Government of Kenya’s (GoK) State Department of Social Protection and Senior Citizen Affairs, Directorate of Social Development, initiated the Kenya Social and Economic Inclusion Programme (KSEIP). The KSEIP is designed to complement and build on the flagship National Safety Net Programme (NSNP) and target those being served by it, moving beyond cash transfers to an integrated Social Protection system to enhance social and economic inclusion services and shock-responsive safety nets for poor and vulnerable households. The KSEIP is expected to contribute towards Kenya’s Vision 2030 and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals.

Challenges and opportunities in Nigeria’s home-grown school feeding program: Toward a more efficient and sustainable model

This paper examines Nigeria’s Home-Grown School Feeding Program (HGSFP), an initiative that enhances traditional school feeding by supporting local agriculture. Operating across federal, state, and school levels, the HGSFP sources meals from local smallholder farmers, aiming to stimulate rural economies and improve food security. The program creates demand for locally grown food, encouraging farmers to increase productivity and adopt sustainable practices while providing them with stable income. The HGSFP has successfully expanded its impact beyond students to benefit farmers, communities, and local businesses; despite these achievements, the program still faces challenges including funding constraints, logistical issues, and monitoring difficulties. By analyzing successful implementations in other countries that are characterized by strong government support, well-developed supply chains, and active community participation, the paper offers insights for improvement. The discussion concludes with evidence-based recommendations for policymakers and program administrators. These suggestions aim to enhance the HGSFP’s effectiveness, efficiency, and long-term sustainability, ultimately contributing to Nigeria’s broader agricultural and economic development goals.

Targeting social assistance in fragile settings: An experiment on community-based targeting

Targeting is an important but challenging process in the design and delivery of social and humanitarian assistance programs. Community-based targeting (CBT) approaches are often preferred for their local information advantages, especially when data-driven methods are not feasible. However, how different variants of CBT approaches fare under various constraints and environments remains unclear. For example, it is not obvious whether agents involved in CBT maximize the number of beneficiaries or the intensity of transfers when given different levels of discretion or they face budget constraints. We implemented a clustered randomized control trial among community leaders in 180 villages in Ethiopia to evaluate how community leaders target and allocate resources when they face budget constraints and are in the presence (absence) of discretion. We find that under resource constraints, community leaders prefer to maximize the number of beneficiaries even at the expense of thinly spreading budgets (reducing average transfers to beneficiaries). Community leaders are keen to minimize exclusion errors even at the expense of increased inclusion errors, suggesting that community leaders may be sensitive to potential communal repercussions and hence prefer to accommodate beneficiaries who would otherwise be excluded based on survey-based measures and indicators of poverty. Consistent with this, we find that offering community leaders some level of discretion helps them reduce exclusion errors and include those most deprived or those affected by armed conflicts. Finally, we find that community leaders are more vulnerable to favoritism when real stakes (rather than hypothetical) are involved, budgets are relatively larger, and they lack discretion. We offer nuanced evidence about the implications of implementing CBT designs in the absence of incentives for community leaders to reveal how they use local information.

Survey instrument on beneficiaries’ perceptions of the benefits of the Baxnaano safety net program in Somalia

In-depth interview guide on stakeholders’ perceptions of the Baxnaano Safety Net Program benefits in Somalia

A guide designed to assess stakeholders’ views on the program benefits, fidelity of implementation, implementation challenges, and the feasibility of its next phase.

Community and household shocks: Findings from the seventh round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (January–June 2024)

The seventh round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was implemented between April and June 2024. It follows six rounds that were carried out since the beginning of December 2021. This report discusses the findings from the seventh round related to shocks including conflict, climatic, service sector, and economic. The security situation in Myanmar continued to worsen during the seventh-round recall period, which spanned from January to June 2024. Households felt insecure in their communities, as reported by 23 percent of households, and had low levels of trust in their communities, as reported also by 23 percent of households. This is because crime and violence remained high, affecting 16 and 9 percent of communities, respectively. Lawlessness continues to be a widespread issue in Myanmar. In January–June 2024, 18 percent of households reported a lot or some gambling in their community and 13 percent reported drug use. These issues were more prominent in urban areas, compared to rural areas. A new challenge is risk of conscription, reported by 39 percent of households. Another crucial challenge is that 13 percent of respondents felt that it was dangerous for them to move around and do everyday tasks. Finally, three percent of respondents revealed that there was a risk of kidnapping in their community.

Changing the equation: Leveraging true cost accounting to accelerate agri-food systems transformation

The global agri-food system, from field to fork, is failing to nourish billions of people properly, is responsible for nearly a third of all greenhouse gas emissions and is a major driver of biodiversity loss. As it currently operates, this system imposes significant hidden costs on the environment, on the workers who produce ‘cheap’ food in dangerous or precarious conditions, consumers, and society as a whole. These hidden costs, or ‘externalities’, include water pollution remediation, social support for underpaid workers, and public health costs related to diet-related diseases, none of which are captured by traditional economic metrics. Externalities are prevalent in all sectors of the economy, not just agri-food systems, and are systematically ignored in conventional accounting and reporting systems. This omission leads to distorted market signals that encourage unsustainable business practices, the consequences of which are borne by society, particularly disadvantaged communities, and will weigh heavily on future generations while the polluters reap financial rewards. Addressing externalities is therefore essential to building an economic system that supports sustainable development.

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – September 2024

The rapidly evolving food security situation in Myanmar requires a high frequency, systematic and comprehensive approach to monitoring. The Myanmar monthly food price report synthesizes food price trends using three publicly available datasets, focusing on key agricultural crops and highlighting regional differences in rice prices. By analyzing these trends, the report aims to provide insights into the broader agricultural market and the factors driving food price fluctuations in Myanmar.

Irrigation schemes in Ethiopia’s Awash River Basin: An examination of physical, knowledge, and governance infrastructures

Using a representative sample of irrigation schemes, the study documents the physical, knowledge, and governance infrastructures of irrigation schemes in Ethiopia’s most intensively used river basin, the Awash. The findings show that about 20 percent of the equipped area of irrigation schemes in the basin is not being irrigated, while the number of actual beneficiaries on average exceeds the number of planned beneficiaries. The results also show significant knowledge gaps among irrigation scheme managers, extension agents, and leaders of water users’ associations (WUAs): 96 percent of them do not know the total water withdrawals or the irrigation water requirement per season. About 14 percent of the surveyed irrigation schemes have neither traditional water committees nor WUAs, and only 21 percent are organized in legally registered WUAs despite a substantial number of identified benefits of these organizations. Moreover, only 58 out of 489 irrigation schemes have women committee members. Many schemes lack a clear strategy for covering maintenance costs: almost 40 percent of schemes collect contributions from members only when the system fails, while 17 percent report no contributions for maintenance at all suggesting considerable risk of system deterioration and failure. The results challenge some of the assumptions about irrigation infrastructure in Ethiopia and confirm and quantify other assumptions in the literature.

Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi

This paper uses machine learning, simulation, and data mining methods to develop Systematic Risk Profiles of three developing economies: Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi. We focus on three exogenous shocks with implications for economic performance: world market prices, capital flows, and climate-driven sectoral productivity. In these and other developing countries, recent decades have been characterized by increased risks associated with all these factors, and there is a demand for instruments that can help to disentangle them. For each country, we utilize historical data to develop multi-variate distributions of shocks. We then sample from these distributions to obtain a series of shock vectors, which we label economic uncertainty scenarios. These scenarios are then entered into economywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation models for the three countries, which allow us to quantify the impact of increased uncertainty on major economic indicators. Finally, we utilize importance metrics from the random forest machine learning algorithm and relative importance metrics from multiple linear regression models to quantify the importance of country-specific risk factors for country performance. We find that Malawi and Rwanda are more vulnerable to sectoral productivity shocks, and Kenya is more exposed to external risks. These findings suggest that a country’s level of development and integration into the global economy are key driving forces defining their risk profiles. The methodology of Systematic Risk Profiling can be applied to many other countries, delineating country-specific risks and vulnerabilities.

Integrated and enhanced datasets on food security and household coping strategies in the G5 Sahel Countries (2018-2023)

This report describes the methodology and output behind the integration and enhancement of nationally representative household surveys on food security and coping strategies implemented in the G5 Sahel countries between 2018 and 2023. Whereas the data integration process involves the harmonization of variables across multiple cross-sectional surveys, the enhancement procedure focuses on adding shock data on multiple dimensions of political violence, food price anomalies, and climate- and weather-related events. Despite shortcomings in data quality and exhaustivity, the resulting datasets represent a unique playground to study the interaction between shocks and stressors on the one hand and household coping strategies and their impact on food security on the other hand.

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: October 2024

This report provides an analysis of food price trends for the third quarter of 2024, covering the period from July to September. During this quarter, two rounds of data were collected per month from Kokopo, Banz, and Port Moresby in July and August. However, in September, only one round of data was collected from all markets except Port Moresby (no data collected). Only one round of data was collected in Goroka for each month in the 3rd quarter. In Lae, food price data was collected only once in August for the entire third quarter. These data gaps affect the comparability of the reported price trend and caution should be used to draw conclusions on price fluctuations. The graphs in this bulletin show price changes within the third quarter and compare the third quarter prices with the second quarter of 2024, between April and June. To access the complete food price dataset and interactive food price graphing tool, please visit our website.

Synopsis: Enhancing rural income diversification in Rwanda: Opportunities and challenges

This study describes the employment patterns of rural households in Rwanda and explores their challenges and opportunities for rural income diversification. Detailed analysis using a 2022 rural household smallholder survey on agricultural production and employment in Rwanda, reveals that: • Agricultural wage labor is the dominant source of off-farm income and is the primary means of supplementing rural household income. This is different than other LMICs where households are more likely to develop nonfarm enterprises that bring in extra income and diversify the rural economy towards more value-added output while also increasing demand for rural inputs. • This research suggests that factors like access to education and financial services are key factors to employment decisions and improved rural urban linkages.

Revolutionising multi-sectoral nutrition policy: Insights from the Ethiopian National Information Platform for Nutrition (NiPN) approach

The global nutrition and food security crisis, characterised by troubling trends in various forms of malnutrition ranging from hunger to obesity, has significantly worsened [1,2]. In 2021 and 2022, nearly one-third of the global population faced moderate to severe food insecurity, underscoring a persistent challenge in accessing healthy and sustainable diets [1,3]. This decline in diet quality has led to a surge in malnutrition, with obesity and diet-related noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) reaching epidemic proportions [4–6]. Despite the implementation of numerous nutrition policies and interventions, many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) continue to grapple with food and nutrition security issues, posing a significant threat to vulnerable populations [3,7]. Food insecurity is particularly evident among the poor, with women and children in rural areas being the most affected [1,2,8]. In 2022 alone, an alarming 230 million children under the age of five experienced some form of malnutrition. Specifically, 148 million (22.3%) were stunted, 45 million (6.8%) were wasted, and 37 million (5.6%) were overweight [1,9,10]. Stunting and wasting were more prevalent in rural areas, while overweight was somewhat more common in urban settings. In Ethiopia, the latest national survey showed that 37% of children under five were stunted, 11% were wasted, and 22% were underweight [11]. Evidence-based approaches and effective programming are essential in tackling these persistent nutrition challenges and improving outcomes. These methods address policy gaps and are cost-effective in resource-poor settings. Recognising the importance of evidence-based policy, driven by political and accountability demands, helps raise awareness and guide decision-making through multisectoral collaboration. However, more evidence does not always mean better policies, as cognitive and institutional factors can hinder effective use. Emphasising knowledge translation in nutrition research is crucial [12], yet many studies focus only on policy formulation, neglecting the systematic analysis of implementation. This highlights the need to address the impact of research on policy and programme execution.

Impact of COVID-19 on food security and cropping patterns in Tajikistan: Evidence from a telephone survey in Khatlon Province

Poor households are the most vulnerable to external shocks. When Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation restricted wheat exports in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, prices for wheat flour and derived products (staple food) increased sharply in Central Asian countries that are dependent on wheat import (the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan). These export restrictions also increased fears of adverse food security outcomes in importing countries. In Tajikistan, these global dynamics translated into significant challenges given its reliance on imports to meet around half of its cereal requirements. The FAO forecasted Tajikistan’s cereal import requirement for 2020/21 at 1,225,000 tons or about 50 percent of its total consumption. Most of this import requirement was made up of wheat, which is a key staple in the Tajik diet, comprising about 54% of total wheat consumption. The country’s key wheat supplier, Kazakhstan, imposed export limitations in April and May 2020. Consequently, despite a good domestic harvest and price stabilization initiatives by the Government of Tajikistan, the domestic price of wheat remained well above the 2019 levels. To unpack the impact of COVID-19 on rural livelihoods and farm decision making, panel data from 1,200 households in Khatlon province in Tajikistan was analyzed. Data was collected through a phone survey in September-October 2020 in 12 districts of Khatlon province, with a set of households previously surveyed in September 2018. The analysis examines respondents’ perceptions of the pandemic’s effects on their households’ livelihoods and agricultural production, disaggregate by 2018 household wealth quartiles. The analysis is descriptive and summarizes respondents’ perceptions. The methodology doesn’t allow us to determine causal pathways or generalize the results beyond Khatlon province.

IFPRI Malawi Monthly Maize Market Report, September 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi to provide clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. All prices are reported in Malawi Kwacha (K).

How have foreign exchange market distortions and conflict affected agricultural production incentives in Myanmar?

Fluctuations in agricultural prices pose significant challenges for fragile and conflict-affected economies due to their critical role in ensuring food security. This study examines changes in agricultural prices at the export, wholesale, and farm level in the case of Myanmar, which experienced a surge in conflicts from 2021 onward, following a military coup. The major findings are as follows: • Regarding macroeconomic impacts, the military government implemented a dual exchange rate system, maintaining a fixed exchange rate significantly below the market rate and effectively imposing an across-the-board export tax on all export commodities of approximately 24 percent between August 2022 and August 2024. This policy particularly affects rice, Myanmar’s main staple and a key export crop. • The scarcity of foreign exchange due to this dual exchange rate system increased the costs of imported inputs. It is estimated that prices of inorganic fertilizers – farmers’ most important commercial input – saw an increase of 10 percent compared to the price in Thailand since the start of the dual exchange rate system. • Regarding domestic trade effects, regions with the highest insecurity exhibited similar agricultural output prices but higher input costs, resulting in reduced farm profitability compared to more secure regions. However, the magnitude of these effects is relatively small, with estimated increases in input prices due to insecurity ranging from one to six percent. Insecure areas also show more often a lack of input availability. • Farmers who reside in insecure areas reported between one and six percentage points higher lack of access to agricultural inputs – fertilizer, agrochemicals, mechanization, and seed – in their communities. The relatively small effects of insecurity on input and output markets suggest a degree of resilience in the private sector’s ability to maintain trade under conflict conditions. • The biggest effect on input markets is seen in the case of agricultural labor. Depending on the measure used, farmers in the most insecure areas had a 7 to 15 percentage points higher likelihood of reporting lack of access to agricultural laborers compared to the most secure areas. • The exchange rate policies are found to have been much more harmful for farmers’ incentives than the domestic trade effects, even for the most conflict-affected areas, indicating the importance of considering macroeconomic effects for agricultural incentives in Myanmar. • Despite the significant disincentives brought about by conflict, the agricultural sector has shown surprising resilience over the recent conflict period, seemingly linked to advantageous international price developments for farmers: international rice prices increased by 27 percent while urea prices decreased by 52 percent between August 2022 and May 2024. • While these international evolutions have partly mitigated the impact of the conflict on farmers’ profitability, the impacts of these price developments on consumers in Myanmar have, however, been severe. An analysis of rice retail prices in Myanmar over the last two and half years show that they have more than tripled and that the overall costs of the common diet more than doubled. A failure of nominal income to keep pace with this food price inflation led to an increase in poverty by 10 percent from the end of 2022 to the end of 2023.

2024 annual trends and outlook report: Advancing the climate and bioeconomy agenda in Africa for resilient and sustainable agrifood systems

The 2024 edition of the Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) explores the challenges posed by the climate crisis to agrifood systems and the opportunities offered by a transition to a bioeconomy to mitigate and adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change. This ATOR seeks to support the ongoing development and the subsequent implementation of a new 10-year Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) strategy by the African Union through the renewed and updated post-Malabo CAADP agenda.

2022 Social Accounting Matrix for Colombia: A Nexus Project SAM

The 2022 Colombia Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI’s Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI’s website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

Survey of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises in Agri-Food Value Chains: Network-Based Recruitment Approach in Uganda

The datasets and questionnaires included in this package are derived from the second phase of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) project titled “Digital Financial Services Adoption among Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in the Midstream of Agricultural Value Chains.” This project focused on midstream actors within the arabica coffee and soybean value chains in Uganda, utilizing tailored surveys to assess their financial capabilities and constraints. The surveys were conducted in May and June 2023 across the Mbale, Kasese, and Lira districts. The data collection was carried out iteratively to gather information about intermediary actors at various stages of the agri-food value chain. In randomly selected villages within the primary study districts, a small group of farmers participated in a brief survey to identify intermediary actors to whom they had sold commodities in the past 30 days. The identified intermediary actors were then contacted and interviewed using a comprehensive intermediary actor survey. In total, 433 coffee farmers and 247 soybean farmers were interviewed in Uganda. The midstream actor sample for the coffee value chain includes 1,401 traders, 111 processors, 334 wholesalers, and 16 aggregators. For the soybean value chain, the sample consists of 507 traders, 2 processors, 280 wholesalers, 9 storage facilities, and 37 aggregators.

Survey of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises in Agri-Food Value Chains: Network-Based Recruitment Approach in Bangladesh

The datasets and questionnaires in this package come from the second phase of IFPRI’s “Digital Financial Services Adoption among SMEs in the Midstream of Agricultural Value Chains” project. This phase focused on midstream actors in the rice and potato value chains in Bangladesh, using tailored surveys to explore their financial capabilities and constraints. The surveys were conducted between June and August 2023 in the Bogra and Rangpur districts. The data collection was iterative, designed to capture insights from intermediary actors across different segments of the agri-food value chain. In randomly selected villages within our primary study areas, a brief farmer survey was used to identify intermediary actors they had sold commodities to in the last 30 days. These identified intermediaries were then contacted and interviewed using a more comprehensive survey. In Bangladesh, 280 rice farmers and 254 potato farmers participated in the farmer surveys. For the midstream actors, the sample includes 1,066 traders, 456 processors, and 220 wholesalers in the rice value chain, and 1,117 traders, 1 processor, 235 wholesalers, and 1 aggregator in the potato value chain.

Dietary quality and nutrition: Past progress, current and future challenges

Prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the military coup in 2021, Myanmar was experiencing a period of rapid economic growth and transformation in the wake of economic and political liberalization. Between 2005 and 2017, average annual growth in real GDP per capita was 7.8 percent, making Myanmar the fastest growing economy among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries. Strong growth was accompanied by a halving of the national poverty rate between 2005 and 2017 from 48.2 to 24.8 percent (CSO, UNDP, and World Bank 2019). COVID19 and the economic and political shocks affecting the country since 2021 have led to an economic contraction: 2021 saw an 18 percent drop in real GDP per capita; in 2022, real GDP per capita was estimated to be 15 percent lower than in 2019 (World Bank 2022). The impacts on poverty were even more dire. A high-frequency panel phone survey of mothers and young children in urban Yangon and the rural Dry Zone revealed incomes collapsing during the COVID-19 lockdowns and further income losses in the wake of the February 2021 military takeover (Headey et al. 2022). Prices rose dramatically, with the consumer price index rising by 20 percent between July 2021 and July 2022 (MOPF 2022), while food prices rose by 34 percent over the same period and by about 50 percent between December 2021 and December 2022. Nationally, a variety of different poverty indicators suggest that between 40 and 50 percent of the population was living in poverty in 2022 —poverty rates similar to those found between 2005 and 2010.

Women and youth in agriculture

Gendered social and cultural norms often strongly emphasize women’s roles as caregivers. Such norms may, in turn, contribute to gender patterns in economic activity, including agricultural activity. Meanwhile, youth are at a critical stage in their lives as they transition from being “dependent” household members to a more independent stage of life, with increasing caregiving and income-generating responsibilities. There may, therefore, be generational differences between youth and non-youth in terms of their contributions to economic activities—including the extent to which they are involved in one sector or another. Knowing and understanding the gendered and generational contributions and roles of women, men, and youth in rural livelihoods and the inequalities therein are critical to designing policies and interventions. Without such evidence, policies and projects risk being designed on the basis of false assumptions, at best lowering efficiency and, at worst, leading to harmful outcomes. So far, only a handful of studies have described gender roles in Myanmar agriculture, and these rely on case study evidence and qualitative data. Little quantitative evidence is available about women’s and youth’s roles in agriculture in Myanmar and, more broadly, in the rural economy.

Agrifood trade

Agrifood exports make up about one-third of Myanmar’s total exports, and their share of both total exports and as a ratio of total GDP has risen in recent years. Agrifood exports have the potential to generate higher income for farmers, traders, processors, and other stakeholders within agrifood value chains. Additionally, they can contribute to the country’s foreign exchange earnings, supporting the importation of manufactured products embedded with modern technology required for the transformation of the agrifood sector. This chapter analyzes the past performance of key agrifood exports and assesses their potential role in the transformation of Myanmar’s agrifood system and the overall economy.

Regional variations in rural livelihoods: Challenges and opportunities

Rural livelihoods in Myanmar are embedded in regional contexts that vary widely in terms of physical geography, climate and agroecology, local resource base, agrarian structure, infrastructure provision, proximity to urban areas and neighboring countries, social networks, institutions, and ethnicities. The composition of livelihoods in each administrative and geographic zone of the country reflects these diverse contexts. Marked variations in livelihood patterns are evident at multiple scales, from the zone or region down to township and village level, so that the composition of livelihoods in villages close to one another sometimes varies widely. Despite the high level of place-based specificity in the composition of livelihoods, many broad similarities and common trends shape livelihoods at subnational and national levels. These include generally low levels of agricultural productivity relative to other countries in the region in terms of both land and labor; high rates of landlessness, legacies of land confiscation, and unresolved struggles over land rights and access; and generally poor public infrastructure and services—including electricity, roads, schools, health services, and rural credit—though these were improving rapidly in many places before 2020; relatively low levels of diversification and capital in the rural nonfarm economy; high rates of international and domestic outmigration; and histories of ethnopolitical conflict and insecurity.

Agricultural land: Inequality and insecurity

Land is indispensable to agricultural production and, thus, a critical resource in sustaining agriculture-based livelihoods. Moreover, land as property may facilitate access to credit when used as collateral, further facilitating productive activities. Land ownership also constitutes a buffer against shocks, as it can often be rented out, mortgaged, or sold when cash needs are high.

A historical and regional perspective on Myanmar’s agrifood system

Agriculture and the related input supply, processing, trade, and retail distribution activities that make up national food systems are a major driver of rural economic transformation in low- and middle-income countries (Mellor 2017). As Chapter 2 shows, in addition to directly contributing to rural employment and GDP in Myanmar, the growth of the agrifood system has high multiplier effects on the broader rural economy. Yet in Myanmar, as Warr (2016) argues, lack of agricultural productivity growth combined with dependence on extractive sectors, such as jade, teak, and natural gas, has held back the transformation of the economy.

The agrifood system: structure and contribution to development goals

As countries develop, agrifood systems (AFS) are expected to evolve beyond primary agriculture. The earliest stages of development are typically characterized by subsistence farming; as agricultural productivity rises, farmers begin to supply surplus production to markets, which creates employment opportunities for workers in the off-farm economy. Rising rural incomes generate demand for more diverse products; this leads to more nonfarm activities such as processing, packaging, transporting, and trading. In the early stages of transformation, the agriculture sector serves as an engine of rural—and even national—economic growth. Eventually, urbanization, the nonfarm economy, and nonagricultural incomes play more dominant roles in propelling AFS development, with urban and rural nonfarm consumers creating most of the market demand for agricultural outputs via value chains that connect rural areas to towns and cities. The exact nature of this transformation process varies across countries because of the diverse structure of their economies and the unique growth trajectories of their various agrifood and nonfood subsectors. A focus solely on primary agriculture without an understanding of its linkages to off-farm components of the economy masks the importance of AFS to the overall economy and its potential contribution as a driver of development going forward. In this chapter, we first measure the size, structure, and historical contribution of the AFS to economic growth and transformation in Myanmar. Second, we assess the potential for AFS growth led by productivity gains in different agricultural value chains to contribute to development outcomes in Myanmar using the Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) model (IFPRI 2023b). We measure AFS using national accounts and employment statistics to either track or simulate growth and employment changes over time. We disaggregate AFS into several value chain groups, which allows the analysis to offer a unique and useful perspective on the drivers of AFS growth and transformation. Finally, we discuss the implications of the recent crises for the future of the AFS and propose both short- and long-term policy recommendations to help steer recovery.

Crop production: An engine in need of an upgrade

According to the Myanmar Living Conditions Survey (MLCS) undertaken in 2017, 54 percent of rural households and 8.4 percent of urban households earn some of their income from crop farming (CSO, UNDP, and World Bank 2020). As seen in Chapter 2, crop production has important value-added and employment linkages upstream and downstream from farms, including in fertilizer and chemical input supply, mechanization services, transport, processing, wholesale and retail distribution, and exports. Crop production also provides the majority of the nation’s calorie intake as well as raw material for processed animal feed. However, as Chapter 3 shows, with maize as the one exception, the crop sector itself has not grown in recent years due to decades of underinvestment in agricultural research, limited transport infrastructure, and highly variable prices for export crops. This chapter provides a more detailed picture of the spatial distribution of crop production and production technologies, which is relevant to the discussion in Chapter 18 on regional variations in rural livelihoods.

Myanmar’s agrifood system: Historical development, recent shocks, future opportunities

Myanmar has endured multiple crises in recent years — including COVID-19, global price instability, the 2021 coup, and widespread conflict — that have disrupted and even reversed a decade of economic development. Household welfare has declined severely, with more than 3 million people displaced and many more affected by high food price inflation and worsening diets. Yet Myanmar’s agrifood production and exports have proved surprisingly resilient. Myanmar’s Agrifood System: Historical Development, Recent Shocks, Future Opportunities provides critical analyses and insights into the agrifood system’s evolution, current state, and future potential. This work fills an important knowledge gap for one of Southeast Asia’s major agricultural economies — one largely closed to empirical research for many years. It is the culmination of a decade of rigorous empirical research on Myanmar’s agrifood system, including through the recent crises. Written by IFPRI researchers and colleagues from Michigan State University, the book’s insights can serve as a to guide immediate humanitarian assistance and inform future growth strategies, once a sustainable resolution to the current crisis is found that ensures lasting peace and good governance.

Income diversification and the rural nonfarm economy

The rapid transformation of the rural sector between 2011 and 2021 has been well-documented in relation to farming and included profound changes in crops grown, farming practices, markets, and value chains. This transformation has been described in this volume, as well as in Belton and Filipski (2019), Filipski et al. (2020), Boughton et al. (2018), and World Bank (2017). However, this period also witnessed a diversification of activities away from agriculture, with incomes shifting away from reliance on subsistence farming and agriculture in general. The contributions of wage work and rural nonfarm businesses are growing in importance as the rural sector moves beyond an agrarian model in which primary agricultural production is the dominant source of wealth. Though the general equilibrium analysis from Chapter 2 shows that agriculture remains a major driver of economic activity, a micro-level analysis finds that activities either downstream in the food value chain or outside of the food system entirely are now responsible for large shares of rural incomes.

Conclusion: From recovery to renewal of the agrifood system

Myanmar’s agrifood system is of critical importance for the near-term survival and longer-term flourishing of its diverse population. Prior to the recent crises, the food system accounted for almost half (47 percent) of Myanmar’s GDP and almost two-thirds (64 percent) of employment, while primary agriculture accounted for 22 percent of GDP and 49 percent of employment (Chapter 2). Recovery from the multiple crises Myanmar has faced since 2020 will require a combination of effective humanitarian assistance and sustained policy reforms and investment to resolve infrastructure limitations and constraints to sustainable productivity growth. These efforts are necessary to enable the agrifood system to fulfill its potential to improve food and nutrition security and reduce poverty. Our concluding chapter first reviews the trajectory of the agrifood system through multiple economic shocks, from the onset of COVID-19 in early 2020 through to the end of 2023; and the types of assistance needed to mitigate widespread food and nutrition insecurity. It then turns to longer-term investments and policies required to enable the agrifood system to drive long-term recovery and sustainable economic growth. While many of the shocks experienced by Myanmar since the onset of COVID-19 have also been experienced by other low-income countries, the consequences have been magnified and prolonged due to the military coup of February 1, 2021.

Agricultural mechanization: Drivers and characteristics

Widespread agricultural mechanization is a very recent phenomenon in Myanmar. In 2010, just 0.5 percent of farm households in the Delta used combine harvesters, and only 6 percent used threshers. A study of farm production economics in the country’s main agricultural zones in 2013/14 found that only 1 percent of paddy-cultivating households used combine harvesters. This was attributed to a combination of low wages and surplus labor in rural areas, poor infrastructure, a poor regulatory environment, and a lack of access to long-term capital among farmers. However, Myanmar’s policy reforms and reintegration into regional and global markets between 2011 and 2020 contributed to increasingly dynamic conditions, including economic growth averaging 7 percent per year (ADB 2018), accelerating out-migration from rural areas, and rapid rural transformation. This context gave rise to rapid and widespread agricultural mechanization. This chapter compares data from two pairs of complementary surveys to assess the effects of these economic changes on the uptake of agricultural mechanization. We combine demand-side (farm household) and supply-side (agricultural machinery retailer) surveys implemented between 2016 and 2018 across two major agroecological zones—a deltaic rice-growing environment (the Delta) and a rainfed semiarid zone (the Dry Zone). This approach allows for triangulation of results and captures variations in mechanization across geographies. In addition, we use data from multiple rounds of rapid assessments to evaluate the impacts of COVID-19 and other recent shocks.

Agricultural value chains: Examples of quiet transformation

Myanmar’s agricultural value chains1 are often perceived to be traditional and inefficient and to suffer from underinvestment, credit constraints, and inadequate technology. This perception is partly rooted in the legacy of Myanmar’s military socialist government (1962–1988). During this period, most private business was nationalized, agricultural production in the lowlands was brought under a command-and-control system, and the state assumed all responsibility for the provision of agricultural inputs, services such as mechanization, and crop procurement and marketing.