Publications and Datasets

Barriers and facilitators to women’s participation in farmer producer organizations: A qualitative study exploring women’s empowerment and collective efficacy in Jharkhand, India

Over the last decade in India, farmer producer organizations (FPOs) have emerged as a means of collectivizing smallholder farmers and providing them access to extension, innovation, and market services. FPOs that center women farmers, traditionally at a disadvantage vis-à-vis their male counterparts in access to resources and extension, can serve to enhance women’s agency and collective action in agricultural value chains. We used 59 key informant interviews and nine focus group discussions to examine the constraints to, and facilitators of, women’s and men’s participation in three women-only FPOs in Jharkhand, an eastern Indian state. Additionally, we study the gender and power dynamics in such FPOs and the potential of collective efficacy to enhance agricultural and empowerment outcomes. The FPO intervention we evaluated was supported by an NGO that provides FPO members with both agricultural and gender-based inputs to improve agronomic practices, market linkages, agricultural yields and profits, and the role of women both within the FPO and within their households and communities. In this paper, we provide contextual insights on ‘what works’ to empower women in this context. Women’s perceptions of the benefits from FPO membership were heterogeneous. Our qualitative analysis suggests a nuanced picture of women’s autonomy and decision-making within and outside their household, further shaped by women’s and men’s perception of shifts in women’s access to resources and services. The emerging lessons provide inputs for development implementers and policymakers to recognize diverse contextual barriers in designing FPO interventions to enable and enhance women empowerment outcomes. The research also contributes to the body of knowledge on local gender norms and understanding of empowerment.

Gendered farm work and decision-making: Quantitative evidence from Tajikistan

Quantitative data collected in August and September 2018 in 12 districts of Khatlon Province, called “The Assessment of Nutrition-Sensitive Value Chains in the FtF ZOI in Tajikistan” were employed to analyze gender differences in participation in crop production and marketing activities, and to understand the association between women’s employment and their decision-making power at home. The dataset contains general information on the households’ farm activities, and detailed information of production practices for households’ main horticultural crops (vegetables, fruits, melons and cucurbitae).

Oilseed farming in Myanmar: An analysis of practice, productivity, and profitability: Assessment of the 2023 monsoon

We have analyzed oilseed production patterns, productivity, and profitability for the 2023 monsoon season from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), conducted at the beginning of 2024. This survey encompassed plots managed by 802 oilseed producers, distributed across all states/regions of the country. Our findings reveal: 1. Overall, oilseed productivity increased by an average of 2 percent during the 2023 monsoon compared to the previous year. Performance differed by crop with soybean and sesame experiencing moderate increases in yield, while groundnut and sunflower witnessed a decline in average yields of one percent. This mediocre performance stemmed from low input usage (particularly fertilizer), similar labor inputs, and a high occurrence of natural shocks, notably pests, diseases, and weeds, and heavy rain and storms. 2. Despite decreasing fertilizer prices, chemical fertilizer use remained low in oilseed production, with 45 percent of farmers using chemical fertilizer in monsoon 2023. Further, chemical fertilizer use did not increase in oilseed production compared to the previous monsoon. 3. Organic fertilizer use, on the other hand, is high in oilseed production, as 63 percent of farmers applied it in the 2023 monsoon season. During this time, organic fertilizer was used by 74 percent of groundnut farmers and 76 percent of oilseed farmers in the Dry Zone. This is due to the availability of organic manure in the Dry Zone where oilseed production is high. 4. Groundnut, soybean, and sesame farmers relied on seeds saved from last year’s harvest, while 67 percent of sunflower farmers purchased seeds from ag-input retailers or the government. The percentage of oilseed farmers using self-preserved seed – instead of obtaining it from the market – increased by 9 percentage points compared to last monsoon. 5. Draught animal ownership remains important for oilseed production, especially in the Dry Zone. Seventy-one percent of oilseed farmers used draught animals in production, with 50 percent using their owned draught animals. 6. Thirty-nine percent of oilseed farmers reported being impacted by climatic or other production shocks during this monsoon, with pests, diseases, and weeds (reported by 36 percent of farmers who experienced shocks), heavy rain/ storms (reported by 34 percent), droughts (reported by 22 percent), and irregular rainfall (reported by 21 percent) having significant adverse effects on yields. 7. Oilseed prices at the farm level increased by between 20 (soybean) and 45 (sunflower) percent, reflecting changes in international oilseed prices as well as the depreciation of the MMK. 8. Real – in terms of the cost of an average food basket – gross margins from oilseed farming during the monsoon of 2023 increased by between 2 (soybean and groundnut) and 12 (sesame) percent compared to the previous year. Real sunflower gross margins declined. At the same time, nominal profits increased by 33 percent since the previous monsoon. High price inflation tempered the increase in real profits. 9. Twenty percent of oilseed farmers faced significant issues in terms of marketing, including low prices for crops, insecurity, and having trouble reaching traders. These issues likely decreased the profitability of oilseed farming for the affected farmers. 10. Oilseed farmers reflecting on this monsoon compared to last, perceived higher profits, suggesting that the oilseed sector continues to be a lucrative choice for farmers. These findings have several policy implications: 1. Ensure access to quality seeds: Reusing seeds from previous seasons reduces yields, especially when combined with climate shocks. The private sector should make quality seeds and seeds with high oil content available to boost oilseed crop yields. 2. Promote organic fertilizer use: Organic fertilizer is predominantly used in the Dry Zone. Expand its use to other agro-ecological zones to improve long-term soil fertility and help farmers mitigate the impact of fluctuating chemical fertilizer prices. The private sector and NGOs through in-person and online platforms can provide training on making compost from farm residues for farmers without access to animal manures. 3. Enhance pest and disease management: The private sector should provide farmers with access to better pest and disease management resources, including training and access to effective, environmentally friendly pesticides and herbicides. 4. Strengthen climate resilience: The private sector can strengthen climate resilience by developing and disseminating climate-resilient agricultural practices, providing training on drought-tolerant and flood-resistant crop varieties through in-person and online platforms, and offering financial incentives and technological support to farmers. 5. Create secure marketing channels: Farmers face low crop prices and safety issues during trade, along with difficulties in reaching traders due to security concerns. Develop secure and stable marketing channels to address these challenges. 6. Increase loans for oilseed crops: Given the higher production costs of groundnut, sesame, and soybean compared to sunflower, MADB should increase their loan amounts for these crops to enhance their productivity. The private sector could also lend money to oilseed farmers, given the increase in oilseed production stemming from their perceived profitability and importance to the government.

From farm to ship to fork: The role of maritime insurance in facilitating global food trade

Developments in agriculture and transportation over the last century have shifted global diets from traditional to staple crops, largely concentrating the source of populations’ nutritional and caloric needs to a limited number of producing countries. Three staple crops—rice, corn, and wheat—now provide more than 40 percent of global caloric intake. The remaining dietary needs of populations are in part met by local markets, but the outsourcing of a significant proportion of food production is now a permanent fixture of food security and nutrition in a globalized agricultural marketplace. More than 80 percent of global trade in staple crops and oilseeds relies on a handful of maritime trade routes that, when disrupted, create a chokehold on food supplies.

Impact evaluation of the use of PBR cowpea in Nigeria: Baseline process evaluation report

This process evaluation (PE) is part of a five-year (2021–2026) impact evaluation (IE) of the use of a new pod-borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea variety in Nigeria, a project led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). While the IE draws from a representative sample of 1,399 farmers to determine the causal impacts of the use of PBR cowpea, the PE complements the IE by exploring in detail the potential adoption of the PBR cowpea variety and the reasons for adoption or non adoption, including its potential impacts on actors throughout the value chain. A program impact pathway (PIP) is the basis of this PE. The PIP identifies how impacts emerge from program inputs, processes, outputs, and outcomes to highlight barriers and facilitators of adoption. Given that this PE was conducted before the rollout of PBR cowpea in the IE, the analysis focuses on the potential of this innovative seed to achieve positive outputs and outcomes based on the PIP. Qualitative data were gathered from eight focus group discussions with farmers and 180 semi-structured interviews conducted with farmers, extension agents, seed dealers, and cowpea traders from eight local government areas (LGAs) in the states of Adamawa and Kwara. Given that the data are qualitative, the data are not representative. However, important insights were found that can help guide the IE.

Impact evaluation of the use of PBR cowpea in Nigeria: Baseline report

Nigeria is the largest consumer and producer of cowpea in Africa. Produced predominantly by smallholder farmers, cowpea is relied on by millions of Nigerians and is one of their main sources of affordable protein. Despite cowpea’s economic relevance (Nwagboso et al. 2024; Phillip et al. 2019), cowpea yields in Nigeria have barely grown over the last 20 years. One of the main abiotic constraints of the crop is the pod-borer insect (Maruca vitrata), which can cause damages of up to 80 percent. Given that conventional breeding has not been successful in addressing this constraint, local and international efforts over the last decades focused on developing a pod-borer-resistant (PBR) cowpea. The culmination of these efforts in Nigeria was the commercial release of the PBR cowpea variety SAMPEA-20T in late 2019. This is a significant milestone, as it was the first transgenic food crop to be approved for cultivation in Nigeria. In its programming under the “Feed the Future Innovative Maize and Cowpea Technologies to Increase Food and Nutrition Security in Africa” activity, implemented by the African Agricultural Technology Foundation (AATF), the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) aims for an adoption rate of PBR cowpea in Nigeria of 25 percent by 2025, with yield gains of 20 percent and accompanying reductions in pesticide applications. The International Food Policy Research Institute’s (IFPRI) Program for Biosafety Systems (PBS) is leading a five-year (2021–2026) impact evaluation (IE) project, funded by USAID. The study goal is to generate causal evidence of the use of the PBR cowpea variety and its consequential household and farm impacts and associated value chain effects. In a collaboration with IFPRI’s Nigeria Country Office, PBS is leading and coordinating the overall study while the IFPRI-Nigeria Country Office designs and implements the quantitative and qualitative approaches to the evaluation. IFPRI has worked with technology developers, the AATF and its partners (including private local seed companies), to ensure access to necessary data and cooperation by the evaluation team, while maintaining the team’s independence. To ensure such required independence, the evaluation team has separated the cooperation in implementing the evaluation (including distributing inputs) from the data analysis. The evaluation team will continue to maintain its independence in the methodological approach and the analysis of the results from the implemented randomized controlled trial (RCT), adhering to international standards.

Retrospective evaluation of scaling associated with the IITA Cassava Weed Management Project (CWMP): Final project

The Cassava Weed Management Project (CWMP), funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) from 2013-2018, aimed to promote the use of safe and environmentally friendly herbicides for effective weed control in cassava production in Nigeria. This retrospective evaluation, conducted by a consortium of experts from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and Sahel Consulting Agriculture and Nutrition Limited, examined the extent to which the private sector has scaled up the herbicides tested and recommended by the CWMP, as well as the factors influencing companies’ decisions to register and deploy these products. The evaluation, conducted in 2023-2024, employed a mixed-methods approach that relied heavily on the qualitative approaches to uncover underlying factors affecting scaling and adoption. The methods included document reviews, key informant interviews (KII), focus group discussions (FGD) with cassava farmers, mystery shopper surveys of agro-dealer shops, and quantitative analysis of secondary data from sources like official company data and the Living Standard Measurement Study – Integrated Survey on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA). The evaluation findings indicate that the private sector has made notable efforts in scaling up some of the recommended herbicides, but the extent of scaling varies across different products. Relying on sales data from herbicide companies to estimate the number of cassava farmers who have adopted various herbicide products over the last five years, the evaluators found that Glyphosates stand out in terms of number of cassava farmers who have adopted these herbicides over this period. Owing to missing sales data from the herbicide companies, our reported estimates focus only on the number of farmers that purchased the herbicides in the most recent year of sale. We estimate that more than 200,000 cassava farmers used the herbicides Touchdown and Force-Up in 2023, and more than 120,000 cassava farmers used Sarosate in 2023. We found that only about 2,800 farmers used Primextra Gold in 2021. Gallant Super was also estimated to have been adopted by over 23,000 in 2023, Vigor adopted by over 5,000 farmers in 2023, and SlashaGold by about 4,500 cassava farmers. While these estimates are based on the best available data from the companies, it is important to exercise caution in citing these figures due to the lack of precise records of sales of specific herbicides to cassava farmers.

2023 IFPRI audited financial statements

2023 IFPRI uniform guide (A-133)

Buyers’ response to third-party quality certification: Theory and evidence from Ethiopian wheat traders

When quality attributes of a product are not directly observable, third-party certification (TPC) enables buyers to purchase the quality they are most interested in and reward sellers accordingly. Beyond product characteristics, buyers’ use of TPC services also depends on market conditions. We study the introduction of TPC in typical smallholder-based agriculture value chains of low-income countries, where traders must aggregate products from many small-scale producers before selling in bulk to downstream processors, and where introduction of TPC services has oftentimes failed. We develop a theoretical model identifying how different market conditions affect traders’ choice to purchase quality-certified output from farmers. Using a purposefully designed lab-in-the-field experiment with rural wheat traders in Ethiopia, we find mixed support for the model’s prediction: traders’ willingness to specialize in certified output does increase with the share of certified wheat in the market, and this effect is stronger in larger markets. It, however, does not decrease with the quality of uncertified wheat in the market. We further analyze conditions where traders deviate from the theoretically optimal behavior and discuss implications for future research and public policies seeking to promote TPC in smallholder-based food value-chains.

Social protection and gender: policy, practice and research

Gender considerations in the design and delivery of social protection programs are critical to meet overall objectives of reducing poverty and vulnerability. We provide an overview of the policy discourse and research on social protection and gender in low- and middle-income countries, focusing on social assistance, social care, and social insurance. Taking a ‘review of reviews’ approach, we aggregate findings from rigorous evaluations on women’s health, economic, empowerment, and violence impacts. We show there is robust evidence that social assistance has beneficial effects across all four domains. In addition, there is emerging evidence that social care has positive impacts on women’s economic outcomes, but scarce evidence of its impacts on other domains. Aggregated evidence on the impacts of social insurance are lacking. Key design elements facilitating positive impacts for women relate to gender targeting; quality complementary programming; replacing conditionalities with soft nudges; ensuring the value, frequency, and duration of benefits are sufficient; and gender-sensitive operational components. We close with a discussion of evidence gaps and priorities for future research.

Consumer preferences matter for transforming food systems for sustainable healthy diets: Evidence from rural Bangladesh

Food system transformation strategies rely on consumer demand response for achieving sustainable healthy diets, but food consumption patterns and consumer preferences are often not well understood in many countries of the global South. This brief examines consumer demand in Bangladesh, a country in the take-off stage of agrifood system transformation, that has experienced improvements in diet quality but also an increasing incidence of overweight, with faster increases in rural than urban areas. The authors estimate responses in consumer demand to changes in incomes and changes in food prices, finding that rural consumer demand is driven by strong preferences for animal-source foods, while the demand for sugar and highly processed foods increases faster than total food demand when income rises. They conclude that agricultural value chain development can be an important policy instrument for improving household diet quality but can also lead to undesirable dietary change if food consumption incentives conflict with nutritional needs.

Navigating One Health in research-for-development: Reflections on the design and implementation of the CGIAR Initiative on One Health

Adopting One Health approaches is key for addressing interconnected health challenges. Yet, how to best put One Health into practice in research-for-development initiatives aiming to ‘deliver impacts’ remains unclear. Drawing on the CGIAR Initiative on One Health – a global initiative to address zoonotic diseases, antimicrobial resistance, and food and water safety – we reflect on challenges during program conception and implementation, prompting us to suggest improvements in multisectoral collaboration, coordination, and communication. Our approach involves conducting a researcher-centered process evaluation, comprising individual interviews that are subsequently thematically analyzed and synthesized. The key takeaway is that limited time for planning processes and short program timelines compared to envisioned development impacts may impede research-for-development efforts. Yet, collaborative work can be successful when adequate time and resources are allocated for planning with minimal disruption throughout implementation. Additionally, due to the multifaceted nature of One Health initiatives, it is important to pay attention to co-benefits and trade-offs, where taking action in one aspect may yield advantages and disadvantages in another, aiding to identify sustainable One Health development pathways. Forming close partnerships with national governments and local stakeholders is essential not only to promote sustainability but also to ensure local relevance, enhancing the potential for meaningful impact. Finally, regularly assessing progress toward development goals is critical as development stands as an overarching objective.

Feed handling practices, aflatoxin awareness and children’s milk consumption in the Sidama region of southern Ethiopia

Consumption of milk is linked to improved nutrient intake and reduced risk of child malnutrition in low and middle-income countries. However, these benefits are contingent on the safety and quality of the milk. Milk consumption may alleviate the widespread risk of malnutrition in rural Ethiopia, but milk-borne contaminants may also compromise child health. We aimed to: i) identify the types of dairy feeds used, their storage conditions, and potential risk of aflatoxin contamination; ii) assess stakeholders’ knowledge about aflatoxin contamination along the value chain; and iii) assess parental practices on feeding milk to infants and young children. This qualitative study was conducted in the Sidama region, southern Ethiopia. In-depth interviews (n = 12) and key-informant interviews (n = 18) were conducted with actors along the dairy value chain. Focus-group discussions were conducted with farmers (9FGD/n = 129) and child caregivers (9FGD/n = 122). Study participants were selected to represent a rural-urban gradient, as well as low- and high- dairy cow holdings. We found that while animal-feed processors and their distribution agents had relatively good knowledge about aflatoxin, farmers and retailers did not. Feed storage conditions were poor. Many respondents linked moldy feeds to animal health but not to human health. Farmers’ feed choice was influenced by cost, seasonality, and herd size. Small-holding farmers had limited access to commercial feed. Children’s consumption of milk was limited to skim milk, as butter was extracted and sold for income. The high cost of dairy products also led some parents to dilute skim milk with water before feeding children, compromising the nutritional value and safety of the milk. Our findings underscore the need to address the gaps in aflatoxin and food safety knowledge, improve storage conditions, and ensure the availability of quality feed to increase the sector’s productivity, but most importantly to protect consumers’ health and well-being, especially infants and young children.

African domestic supply booms in value chains of fruits, vegetables, and animal products fueled by spontaneous clusters of SMEs

There is an international consensus that Africans consume less fruits and vegetables (FV), and animal products (AP) than they need for adequate nutrition, and that production and supply chains of these products are constrained. Yet, in this paper, we show that despite these problems, there is a lot of dynamism in demand and supply of these nutrient-dense products in Africa: (1) macro evidence of “domestic supply booms”—with supply growing as fast as or faster than in Asia and Latin America; (2) only 2–4% of FV, and 10% of AP consumption in Africa is imported, and only about 1–2% of the output of FV and AP is exported: the supply booms have thus been overwhelming domestically sourced, not imported; (3) micro evidence of substantial shares of consumption of FV and AP in total food consumption, similar to Asia’s; (4) evidence of rapid development of spontaneous clusters of farms and off-farm SMEs (output wholesalers, logistics, processors, and agro-dealers supporting farmers). These clusters are important in fueling the supply booms. Illustrative cases from Ethiopia, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Zambia are presented. We recommend that African governments and international partners: (1) internalize the fact that these spontaneous clusters are forming and already fueling supply booms; (2) note that important drivers of the booms have been government investments in wholesale markets, roads, and other infrastructure like electrification, and agricultural research/extension; (3) leverage and support existing spontaneous clusters and help new ones to form by greatly increasing those three types of public investments. JEL Codes: O20, Q13, Q18

Feasibility of using an artificial intelligence-based telephone application for dietary assessment and nudging to improve the quality of food choices of female adolescents in Vietnam: Evidence from a randomized pilot study

Background Adolescent nutrition has faced a policy neglect, partly owing to the gaps in dietary intake data for this age group. The Food Recognition Assistance and Nudging Insights (FRANI) is a smartphone application validated for dietary assessment and to influence users toward healthy food choices. Objectives This study aimed to assess the feasibility (adherence, acceptability, and usability) of FRANI and its effects on food choices and diet quality in female adolescents in Vietnam. Methods Adolescents (N = 36) were randomly selected from a public school and allocated into 2 groups. The control group received smartphones with a version of FRANI limited to dietary assessment, whereas the intervention received smartphones with gamified FRANI. After the first 4 wk, both groups used gamified FRANI for further 2 wk. The primary outcome was the feasibility of using FRANI as measured by adherence (the proportion of completed food records), acceptability and usability (the proportion of participants who considered FRANI acceptable and usable according to answers of a Likert questionnaire). Secondary outcomes included the percentage of meals recorded, the Minimum Dietary Diversity for Women (MDDW) and the Eat-Lancet Diet Score (ELDS). Dietary diversity is important for dietary quality, and sustainable healthy diets are important to reduce carbon emissions. Poisson regression models were used to estimate the effect of gamified FRANI on the MDDW and ELDS. Results Adherence to the application was 82% and the percentage of meals recorded was 97%. Acceptability and usability were 97%. MDDW in the intervention group was 1.07 points (95% CI: 0.98, 1.18; P = 0.13) greater than that in the control (constant = 4.68); however, the difference was not statistically significant. Moreover, ELDS in the intervention was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.18; P = 0.03) points greater than in the control (constant = 3.67). Conclusions FRANI was feasible and may be effective to influence users toward healthy food choices. Research is needed for FRANI in different contexts and at scale.

Women’s leadership in climate-resilient agrifood systems: Defining a future research agenda

Women’s leadership is increasingly considered critical for achieving climate-resilient agrifood systems. Numerous initiatives and policies highlight the business case for women’s leadership to deliver a range of positive social, economic and environmental outcomes. In this Perspective, we examine the business case, finding uneven evidence linking women’s leadership to increased resilience to climate change. We problematize the ways women’s leadership is typically understood in this area and argue that, despite the value and utility of understanding the pathways through which women’s leadership can strengthen climate-resilient agrifood systems, support for increasing women’s leadership should not be contingent on proving the business case or its instrumental value. Rather, increasing the leadership of women in all their diversity in climate action is a moral imperative and non-negotiable due to women’s human right to have meaningful influence in the decisions that affect their lives. Finally, we propose ways to reframe the debate on women’s leadership in climate and agrifood systems and suggest priorities for future research in this area.

Harnessing digital innovations for climate action and market access: Opportunities and constraints in the CWANA region

There is growing optimism about the potential of digital innovations to support climate action and transform agricultural markets. We review and characterize the landscape of digital innovations in the Central and West Asia and North Africa (CWANA) region. We highlight major success stories associated with the potential of digital innovations to facilitate rural market transformation and support climate action, including adaptation and mitigation. Our desk and landscape review identifies various digital innovations used in Egypt, Morocco, and Uzbekistan. We then create a typology of digital innovations based on seven broad service categorizations: weather and climate; agricultural finance; energy and early warning systems; data and crowdsourcing; market information and market place; extension and advisory information; and supply chain coordination. Three technical and validation workshops supplement this review. Our review shows that digital innovations have the potential to build resilience to climate change and increase market access, but their adoption remains low and varying across contexts. Significant heterogeneity and differences exist across these countries, possibly due to different institutional and regulatory frameworks that guide demand and capacity. We identify several supply and demand-side constraints facing the digital ecosystem in the region. There is the existence of a significant digital divide fueled by gender, literacy gaps, and related socioeconomic and psychosocial constraints. A seeming disconnect also exists between pilots and scale-ups, as most existing digital applications are unsuccessful in expanding beyond the pilot phase.

IFPRI’s country programs: Facilitating country-led food systems transformation

In most low- and middle-income countries, agrifood systems constitute a sizable share of economic activity and serve as a primary source of livelihoods, especially for poorer members of the population. As a result, national development strategies frequently put strong emphasis on the agrifood sector to achieve key goals, such as accelerating economic growth, reducing poverty, improving food and nutrition security, and confronting climate change. This emphasis was confirmed at the 2021 United Nations Food Systems Summit, where more than 100 countries committed to transforming their food systems to make them more productive, nutrition-focused, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable, and it was further reinforced by the Food and Agriculture Declaration at COP28. To achieve these desired transformations, governments require data and research based evidence to assess the situation, identify solutions, and prioritize actions. Governments are also increasingly interested in enhancing institutional capacity to support country-led development pathways.

Measuring land rental market participation in smallholder agriculture can survey design innovations improve land market participation statistics?

The emergence of rural land rental markets in Sub-Saharan Africa is recognized as a key component of the region’s ongoing economic transformation. However, the evidence base on land market participation relies on survey-derived measures, which do not always cohere when compared and triangulated, suggesting the possibility of non-trivial measurement error. We report the results of a priming and list experiments designed to shed light on a persistent mystery in rural household survey data from Africa: why there are so many fewer self-reported landlords (renters-out) than tenants (renters-in)? Our design addresses two hypotheses using experimental data from Ethiopia. First, rented-out and rented-in land may be systematically underreported because enumerators and respondents are typically primed to emphasize parcels that are actively managed/cultivated by the household. Second, rented or sharecropped-out land may be systematically underreported because of respondents’ reluctance to acknowledge an activity for which public disclosure may have negative repercussions. We address the first hypothesis with a priming experiment by exposing a random subset of respondents to a nudge that explicitly reminded them to fully account for all land, including rented/sharecropped-in and rented/sharecropped-out. We address the second hypothesis with a double-list experiment, designed to elicit true rates of land renting and sharecropping-out. We find that nudging induces about 4 percentage points increase (or 13% in relative terms) in the share of households participating in renting in or sharecropping-in practices but has negligible effects on reported rates of renting and sharecropping-out. Interestingly, our list experiment indicates much higher revealed rates of renting-out (14-15%) than is reflected in the nominal parcel-roster responses (3%). The magnitude of the latter finding fully explains the apparent difference in renting in versus renting-out rates derived from the regular parcel roster responses. These results indicate that efforts to document land market participation rate and associated impacts must overcome large systematic reporting biases.

Sustainable cassava: Strategies from production through waste management

Sustainable Cassava: Strategies from Production through Waste Management presents viable approaches to promote sustainability in this globally important crop, enabling future generations to benefit. Presented in three parts, the first addresses cassava diversity and distribution, sustainable production and cultivation practices, and root processing innovations of the crop. Cassava trade policies and economic value chains, food safety and use of cassava, and agro-industrial cassava products are addressed in the second part. The third part focuses on bioeconomy aspects, cassava waste quality assessment, toxicology, sanitary practices, environmental risk assessment as well as sustainable management strategies for cassava waste using biotechnological and industrial advances. Addressing the need for a unified and standardized approach for the trade, management, and utilization of cassava genetic resources, finished products, and cassava processing wastes, the book also explores policy and governance structure for addressing environmental and economic issues emanating from their use.

Combining approaches for systemic behaviour change in groundwater governance

Over-extraction of groundwater is a prominent challenge in India, with profound implication for food security, livelihoods, and economic development. As groundwater is an ‘invisible’ and mobile common pool resource, sustainable governance of groundwater is complex, multifaceted, requiring coordination among various stakeholders at different scales. It remains an open question as to what can be done to strengthen the governance of groundwater, particularly on the scale necessary to address widespread depletion of resources. The growing competition over groundwater resources calls for systemic changes towards sustainable water management. These require understanding the behaviours of actors in the system network, as well as the institutions that shape the direction in which the system moves. In this paper, we offer a behavioural perspective to system transformation and apply it to the example of an Indian NGO working on sustainable natural resource governance. The organisation, Foundation for Ecological Security (FES), has been co-designing and using various institutional tools for groundwater governance with the collaboration of other NGOs and government partners, academic and research organisations towards strengthening governance of water. At the local level, these include groundwater monitoring and crop water budgeting, combined with experiential learning tools such as games for demand management, and supply side interventions to support water harvesting and recharge. These tools are combined with efforts to strengthen multi-actor platforms, building coalitions and capacity of government, civil society and private sector actors to support groundwater governance at scale. By combining local and systemic approaches, the aim is to influence water governance on a larger scale and contribute to the sustainable management of water resources in India. Our reflections illustrate how conceptual thinking can inform multi-methods approaches which consider that sustainably improving groundwater management at large scale requires inter-linked behavioural changes of diverse actors. Our approach constitutes critical reflection and conceptualization, based on situated knowledge which contributes to designing better adapted and more powerful intervention strategies through informed argument.

2018 Social Accounting Matrix for Indian State Bihar: A Nexus Project SAM

The Nexus Project is a collaboration between IFPRI and its partners, including national statistical agencies and research institutions. Our aim is to improve the quality of social accounting matrices (SAMs) used for computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. The Nexus Project develops toolkits and establishes common data standards, procedures, and classification systems for constructing and updating national SAMs. The 2018 Indian State Bihar SAM follows the Standard Nexus Structure. The open access version of the Indian State Bihar SAM separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital. Labor is further disaggregated across three education categories. Representative households are disaggregated by rural and urban areas and by per capita consumption expenditure quintile. The remaining accounts include enterprises, government, taxes, savings-and-investment, and the rest of the world.

A network-driven data collection approach for agri-food value chains

A key challenge in systematically collecting data on intermediary agri-food value chain actors is that value chains take the form of a network, with actors linked by a series of transactions. Moreover, we have limited ex ante knowledge about the structure or scale of these networks, which complicates the construction of valid sampling frames and limits traditional random sampling approaches to collect data. To address these challenges, we adapt the respondent-driven sampling approach to collect data on intermediary agri-food value chain actors within their transaction-linked network and implement this approach in the arabica coffee and soybean value chains in Uganda and the rice and potato value chains in Bangladesh. We observe meaningful heterogeneity in the structure and scale of agri-food value chains across commodities and countries. Focusing on traders, we show that the respondent-driven sampling approach generates a larger sample of traders who differ in observable characteristics (i.e., value added, enterprise scale, and financial access) compared to a sub-sample of traders generated in a way that mimics traditional random sampling approaches used to study traders. We conclude by discussing how this respondent-driven sampling approach, applied within transaction-linked networks, can provide a useful data collection method for studying intermediary agri-food value chain actors.

2018 Social Accounting Matrix for Indian State Uttar Pradesh: A Nexus Project SAM

The Nexus Project is a collaboration between IFPRI and its partners, including national statistical agencies and research institutions. Our aim is to improve the quality of social accounting matrices (SAMs) used for computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. The Nexus Project develops toolkits and establishes common data standards, procedures, and classification systems for constructing and updating national SAMs. The 2018 Indian State Bihar SAM follows the Standard Nexus Structure. The open access version of the Indian State Bihar SAM separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital. Labor is further disaggregated across three education categories. Representative households are disaggregated by rural and urban areas and by per capita consumption expenditure quintile. The remaining accounts include enterprises, government, taxes, savings-and-investment, and the rest of the world.

Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: case study of Malawi

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of agriculture-led versus non-agriculture-led development strategies under climate-induced economic uncertainty. Utilizing Malawi as a case study, we introduce the application of Stochastic Dominance (SD) analysis, a tool from decision analysis theory, and compare the two strategies in the context of weather/climate-associated economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest that an agriculture-led development strategy consistently surpasses its non-agriculture-led antagonist in poverty and undernourishment outcomes across almost all possible weather/climate scenarios. This underscores that, despite increasing exposure of the entire economy to weather/climate uncertainty, agriculture-led development remains the optimal strategy for Malawi to reduce poverty and undernourishment. The study also endorses the broader use of SD analysis in policy planning studies, promoting its potential to integrate risk and uncertainty into policymaking.

Food environments: Improving their healthfulness

The food environment is the setting in which people choose what to eat, where they buy those foods, and where, when, and how they eat. This chapter examines some of the key challenges and opportunities for food environments amid the rapid transitions occurring in low- and middle-income countries. It presents examples of evidence-based food environment policies and actions that are being implemented to promote diet quality in a diverse range of countries. The conclusions reflect on potential policies for improving diets through changes in food environments, and discuss actions needed to move forward in strengthening the healthfulness of food environments.

Diets and nutrition: The potential of a food systems approach

As priorities in nutrition research and practice have evolved over time, food systems have increasingly become the organizing principle for work on nutrition and diets, with “food systems for sustainable healthy diets” emerging as the latest paradigm in nutrition. This chapter summarizes how learning from decades of work on the linkages between agriculture and nutrition paved the way to adopting the new food systems for sustainable healthy diets framework, and reflects on the emerging challenges and opportunities that arise for the nutrition community as we navigate this new global agenda.

Improved governance: Creating supportive environments for diet and nutrition policies

Most policy interventions to improve diet quality and nutrition require sound governance to be successful. Governance encompasses the interrelationships between formal institutions and informal modes of power, across different geographic scales, and among state and non-state actors. This chapter examines how multilevel and multistakeholder governance can be strengthened to improve diets, with a focus on enhancing state capacities, navigating corporate influence, and fostering citizen agency. The chapter highlights existing challenges in each of these areas while also discussing approaches that have potential to improve the governance environment at national and local scales.

Diet affordability: Understanding the high cost of healthy diets

As new metrics of healthy diet affordability have been developed in the past five years, it is estimated that between 2 and 3 billion people worldwide — mostly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) — cannot afford a healthy diet. The implications for human nutrition are striking: affordability is a binding constraint to achieving a healthy diet in the world’s poorest countries. This chapter poses several questions to initiate strategic thinking on possible responses to this challenge and recommends actions to support shifts toward healthy diets in LMICs.

Animal-source foods: Their role in sustainable healthy diets

As part of the rapid evolution of diets in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), consumption of animal-source foods (ASFs) has increased sharply in recent decades. This chapter examines ASFs as part of a sustainable healthy diet by exploring the beneficial role of ASFs in providing essential micronutrients in some age cohorts and populations in LMICs, the potential negative health impacts, and the environmental impacts associated with livestock production. It concludes with recommendations for ASF consumption, including policies and interventions for reducing excess consumption and promoting consumption where ASFs could play a larger role in sustainable healthy diets.

Plant-source foods: Leveraging crops for nutrition and healthy diets

Addressing the urgent need for food systems to support sustainable healthy diets will require a major improvement in the availability of and access to affordable, nutritious foods such as fruits, vegetables, and whole grains in low- and middle-income countries, along with increased consumer demand for healthy diets. Plant-source foods are key components of sustainable healthy diets. This chapter examines food crops that could be leveraged to improve health outcomes, describes production systems and their role in providing populations access to highly nutritious crops, and presents examples of evidence-based technologies that improve the nutritional content of crops, especially for vulnerable populations.

Demand-side approaches: Supporting healthier food choices

Understanding individual food choices and their net aggregate — which constitutes demand — is essential for any effort to reshape food systems to achieve broad nutrition and sustainability goals. This chapter presents an overview of food choice and consumer food demand in complex food systems, provides a summary of evidence for demand-side approaches to improve the healthfulness of diets, and identifies key areas where demand-side approaches can foster healthier food choices to achieve optimal health and nutrition.

Advancing nutrition: Food system policies and actions for healthy diets

Hunger, food insecurity, and unhealthy diets underpin many critical public health challenges, including all forms of malnutrition and diet-related noncommunicable diseases. These health outcomes, in turn, have short- and long-term impacts on the well-being and productivity of human populations worldwide. Amid these complex, interconnected challenges, the global focus on how to leverage food systems for nutrition has shifted toward sustainable healthy diets that promote well-being for both people and the planet. This chapter provides an overview of the thematic chapters of the 2024 Global Food Policy Report, which look at food demand and affordability, food environments, plant- and animal-source foods, and governance for sustainable healthy diets.

Regional developments [in 2024 Global Food Policy Report]

The regional section of the 2024 Global Food Policy Report examines the evolving problem of malnutrition—including undernutrition, micronutrient deficiencies, and overweight and obesity—in low- and middle-income countries across the world’s major regions. Policy interventions are highlighted that address the particular challenges and opportunities in each region, with recommendations that aim to transform food systems to make healthier, more diverse, and more sustainable diets available, affordable, accessible, and desirable for everyone, including the most vulnerable. Africa: Diverse diet and nutrition conditions in Africa call for targeted strategies to increase the supply, affordability, and consumption of healthy foods, especially for the most vulnerable. Addressing the high burden of micronutrient deficiencies and undernutrition in the region will require lever¬aging local, national, regional, and continental food systems to increase the supply and reduce the cost of nutritious foods. This regional section discusses the importance of contextualizing evidence-based multisectoral policy and program approaches, and strengthening people’s resilience and capacity to cope with global threats posed by climate change, conflicts, and other shocks to support a shift to sustainable healthy diets. Middle East and North Africa: To achieve sustainable healthy diets in the Middle East and North Africa, multifaceted policy approaches are needed to boost the resilience of food systems to frequent shocks, which raise food prices and affect diet quality. National policy responses need to consider the region’s double burden of malnutrition along with other vulnerabilities, including climate change, water scarcity, and conflict, as well as more effective targeting of social protection for the most vulnerable groups, and reform of food subsidies to improve diets. Central Asia: Food systems in Central Asia face serious challenges related to diet quality and nutrition. Obstacles include the high cost of a healthy diet, inadequate nutrition knowledge, unhealthy consumption habits, and domestic and regional policies. This regional section discusses the additional impact of climate change, unstable commodity markets, and a heavy reliance on remittances and undiversified trade flows, and highlights several policy interventions that have potential to transform Central Asian food systems. South Asia: In South Asia, where levels of malnutrition are high and rates of diet-related noncommunicable diseases are rising, a shift toward healthier, more sustainable diets will require allocating more resources to promote production and consumption of non-staple foods. This regional section explores “crop-neutral” policies that would allow farmers to respond to market sig¬nals and contribute to diversification in domestic food production that could also reduce poverty. Taxes on foods high in fat, sugar, and salt could help slow the rapid increase in consumption of these foods, and effective front-of-package labeling can promote healthy food choices. East and Southeast Asia: Major challenges to achieving sustainable healthy diets in East and Southeast Asia include poor food standards, lack of consideration of diets and health in trade policies, and changing food demand. This regional section highlights multi-duty policy actions that are needed to address the double burden of malnutrition and its drivers, including rapid urbanization, income growth, and environmental changes. Policy reforms must consider the needs and preferences of diverse populations in the region, support the agency of the most marginalized producers and consumers, and strengthen regional cooperation to make diverse, healthy food available and accessible for all. Latin America and the Caribbean: To achieve sustainable healthy diets, the Latin America and Caribbean region will require both demand- and supply-side solutions, as well as changes in food environments to increase demand for healthy foods. This regional section discusses the complex challenge of identifying the most effective policies and standards to tackle malnutrition and obstacles to accessing and affording healthy diets. It highlights the importance of clearly defining objectives, strengthening social protection programs, addressing the driv¬ers of obesity and overweight, and increasing the availability and affordability of nutritious foods, while maintaining and expanding the region’s crucial role in global food security and nutrition.

Global food policy report 2024: Food systems for healthy diets and nutrition

Food systems and diets underpin many critical challenges to public health and environmental sustainability, including malnutrition, noncommunicable diseases, and climate change, but sustainable healthy diets have the unique potential to reshape the future for both human and planetary well-being. The 2024 Global Food Policy Report draws on recent evidence to examine the role of food systems in driving nutrition outcomes and opportunities for transforming food systems to ensure healthy diets for all. Chapters by IFPRI researchers and partners evaluate proven and innovative ways to sustainably improve diet quality and reduce malnutrition, including ways to make healthy diets more affordable, accessible, and desirable, how to improve food environments, the role of both agricultural crops and animal-source foods, and governance for better diets and nutrition, all with a major focus on the most vulnerable populations in low- and middle-income countries. Regional sections explore the diverse challenges countries face and promising policy responses for transforming food systems for sustainable healthy diets. For information on the launch event, go to https://www.ifpri.org/event/improving-diets-and-nutrition-through-food-systems-what-will-it-take To see more on this report and past reports, go to https://gfpr.ifpri.info

Real-time market price monitoring: Current dynamics in southern Rwanda

Recent collaborative CGIAR research has developed a prototype for tracking district-level costs of a healthy diet using monthly eSoko data.1 High frequency monitoring of diets allows for near real-time generation of insights on price impacts on diet costs. The temporal richness of this data allows for immediate analytics of current food system events. This research provides an analysis of district-level price movements of healthy diet compositions, as well as food prices that compose the diet. We use this prototype to demonstrate how eSoko data could be used for monitoring an economic shock and how to evaluate the effects in near real time. The general goal is to demonstrate a potential early warning system that could improve the menu of policy choices for enhanced resilience.

Global methane pledge: An important climate action pathway for Tajikistan

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas that is responsible for approximately 30 percent of the rise in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution. Its high warming power sets the pace for warming in the near term. Recognizing the need for rapid and sustained reductions in methane emissions, the European Union and the United States launched the Global Methane Pledge (GMP) at COP26. Participants joining the Pledge agree to take voluntary actions to reduce global methane emissions by at least 30 percent from 2020 levels by 2030. Members also commit to moving towards improving national greenhouse gas inventory reporting under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement. Since the launch, there has been significant mobilization of funds, new national commitments, action pathways at the sectoral level, and expansion in membership. Tajikistan recently joined the GMP with support from activities implemented by the International Food and Policy Research Institute under USAID’s flagship Comprehensive Action for Climate Change Initiative program.

Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (Monsoon 2023): Farming environment and farm commercialization

We have analyzed the farming environment and farm commercialization situation for the 2023 monsoon season from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), conducted at the beginning of 2024. This survey encompassed almost 4,400 crop producers in the monsoon, distributed across all states/regions of the country. Our findings reveal: 1. The security situation in Myanmar continues to pose concerns for farmers, impacting their commercialization practices. During the interview period (January – March 2024): 1.1) 31 percent of farmers reported feeling ‘very insecure’ or ‘insecure’. 1.2) 22 percent expressed serious security concerns while moving around. 1.3) 8 percent stated that conflict in their area prevented the cultivation of some agricultural fields. 1.4) 1.4 percent reported land confiscation as a problem in their community. 1.5) 11 percent indicated fear of storing produce at home due to the risk of confiscation or destruction. 2. Security challenges for farming vary across states and regions, with the Delta area – the country’s rice bowl – experiencing relatively better conditions. 3. Limited access to fuel, crucial for irrigation and mechanization among others, poses a significant constraint to farming. Nationally, about a quarter of Burmese farmers reported either no or rare availability of fuel in their communities during the monsoon and post/premonsoon periods. This situation is exacerbated in conflict-affected areas such as Rakhine, Chin, and Kayah, with Rakhine experiencing a dramatic worsening in recent months, with 81 percent of farmers reporting fuel scarcity in the post/pre-monsoon period. 4. Agricultural inputs were generally accessible during the 2023 monsoon season, indicating the resilience of the private sector in delivering these inputs. However, 4 percent of farmers reported unavailability of chemical fertilizers, while 6 percent faced difficulties in accessing mechanization and 18 percent in securing agricultural labor. 5. Input prices increased during the 2023 monsoon compared to the same period in 2022, with mechanized plowing costs rising by 20 percent, and hired labor costs for men and women increasing by 19 percent and 23 percent, respectively. Conversely, urea prices decreased by 15 percent. 6. In the post/pre-monsoon of 2024, wages saw substantial increases compared to the monsoon, especially for men, with a 15 percent rise, possibly linked to the new conscription law. 7. Nearly all crop prices increased compared to the previous monsoon. Paddy prices surged by 64 percent. Conversely, maize prices experienced an 11 percent decrease, likely due to transportation issues via Myawaddy, the border town for trade with Thailand. 8. Most farmers reported higher crop sales income this year compared to the previous one. However, 14 percent of farmers reported lower sales incomes. 9. Farmers in remote and conflict-affected areas face significant disadvantages in farm commercialization. Insecurity and isolation are primarily linked to higher input costs, while output prices are similar or lower compared to secure and well-connected areas. Consequently, farming profitability in these regions is reduced, impacting farmers’ income and welfare.

Measuring women’s empowerment in national surveys: Development of the Women’s Empowerment Metric for National Statistical Systems (WEMNS)

Monitoring progress toward Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 5—achieving gender equality and empowering all women and girls—remains challenging unless we incorporate women’s empowerment metrics into nationally representative and multi-topic surveys. To address this data gap, we designed the Women’s Empowerment Metric for National Statistical Systems (WEMNS) as a streamlined empowerment module suitable for the 50×2030 Initiative, a global partnership that aims to build capacity and close the agricultural data gap in 50 countries by 2030, as well as other large multi-topic surveys. WEMNS measures women’s and men’s empowerment and is applicable to urban and rural areas and a variety of livelihood strategies (farming, self-employment, wage labor) across countries in different stages of structural transformation. WEMNS is a counting-based, multidimensional index composed of four domains: intrinsic agency, instrumental agency, collective agency, and agency-enabling resources. Each domain is measured with binary indicators derived from question sets in the WEMNS module. In this paper, we describe the development and testing of WEMNS and its components, including: (1) WEMNS’s distinctiveness from other empowerment metrics; (2) the iterative approach used to develop and pilot the WEMNS module in Bangladesh, Guatemala, Malawi, and Nepal, using cognitive interviewing, phone surveys, and face-to-face surveys; (3) analysis of quantitative pilot data; and (4) a summary of the findings from the cognitive interviewing. The paper concludes with a discussion of lessons learned and possibilities for further development of WEMNS and other empowerment metrics.

Conflict and agricultural performance: Evidence from Myanmar

Recent years have witnessed an escalation in conflict, especially in developing countries where a significant proportion of the population relies on agriculture. It is crucial to understand how these conflicts impact agricultural production, given its importance for food security and agricultural transformation in these regions. However, research exploring how persistent conflicts affect agriculture is still nascent. Our study adds to this body of research by establishing a causal link between ongoing conflicts and their impact on paddy production, a primary staple crop in Myanmar. This analysis is based on data from a nationally representative phone survey conducted amidst active conflicts. We find that conflict adversely affects paddy production in various ways, including decreases in production and yield, as well as decreases in farmgate prices and the value of production. Our analysis reveals that conflict events, particularly those targeting civilians, have more pronounced negative effects on paddy production, yield, farmgate prices, and the value of production compared to non-targeted conflict incidents that do not purposively target civilians but could potentially disrupt input and output markets. The timing of conflict also significantly affects paddy production, with incidents occurring in mid-season, and during pre-planting and planting periods being the most damaging. Conflict leads to a decrease in the land area devoted to paddy cultivation, lowered probability and intensity of compound fertilizer usage, and an increased reliance on possibly lower quality seeds and exchange labor use. Our findings provide timely and informative insights for development partners and policy frameworks, highlighting the need for emergency assistance and intervention strategies to mitigate the impact of conflict and enhance resilience in areas vulnerable to conflict and instability.

Implementer-Led Evaluation and Learning (IMPEL) evaluation of SPIR II RFSA – Midline survey report

The objective of this report is to present results from the midline survey conducted as part of the IMPEL evaluation of SPIR-II, a randomized controlled trial launched in 2022. The second phase of the Strengthen PSNP Institutions and Resilience (SPIR-II) project aims to enhance livelihoods, increase resilience to shocks, and improve food security and nutrition for rural households vulnerable to food insecurity in Ethiopia. The project is situated within Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), one of the largest safety net programs in Africa. Funded by USAID’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance (BHA), SPIR-II is implemented by World Vision International (lead), CARE, and ORDA in the Amhara and Oromia regions of Ethiopia. The IMPEL SPIR-II impact evaluation employs an experimental design with three arms comparing two treatment combinations of livelihood and nutrition graduation model programming provided to PSNP beneficiaries relative to a control group receiving only PSNP transfers. The treatment assignment is randomized at the kebele level in 234 kebeles. In the first arm (T1; the control group), PSNP is implemented by the government with SPIR II support for the provision of cash and food transfers only (no supplemental programming). In the second arm (T2), SPIR-II programming is rolled out to PSNP beneficiary households in conjunction with nurturing care groups targeting enhanced infant and young child nutritional practices. In the third arm (T3), PSNP beneficiary households receive SPIR-II programming and nurturing care groups (NCGs), supplemented with additional targeted cash transfers to pregnant and lactating women.

Review of global agricultural emission databases

Since the Industrial Revolution, the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) has consistently risen, leading to a 1.15°C increase in global mean temperatures by 2022. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirms human activities as the primary cause of global warming, with emissions continuing to rise. Climate change has resulted in adverse impacts on various fronts, disproportionately affecting vulnerable communities. International efforts, including the United Nations Frame-work Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol, aimed at stabilizing green-house gas concentrations. These efforts were followed by the Paris Agreement in 2015, focusing on limiting global temperature increases and relying on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) from countries. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change mandates Countries to develop and regularly update national inventories of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. These inventories, aligned with IPCC methodologies, serve as crucial tools for transparent reporting, building mutual trust among countries for effective climate change agreements. National GHG inventories play a vital role in policy development, monitoring impact, and tracking progress toward achieving NDCs outlined in inter-national agreements, such as the Paris Agreement. Varying capacities for GHG inventory development among developing and developed countries, coupled with diverse reporting requirements, create challenges in data comparability. Developed countries face rigorous annual submission requirements, producing comprehensive National Inventory Reports and Common Reporting Format tables. In contrast, developing countries submit their national GHG inventories through Biennial Update Reports (BURs), and flexibility is granted to Least Developed Country Parties (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) regarding submission timelines. The re-porting landscape is progressing, with the introduction of the biennial transparency report (BTR) for Paris Agreement Parties. The BTR, due by December 31, 2024, will convergence in methodologies be-tween countries.

IFPRI Malawi Monthly Maize Market Report, April 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi to provide clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. All prices are reported in Malawi Kwacha (K).

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. INTERPRETATION Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

Institutional challenges to the implementation of nationally determined contributions in Latin America and Caribbean countries: Institutional architecture requirements, issues arising from the examination of NDC updates and lessons learned from capacity development interventions

The nations that signed the Paris Agreement periodically submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) with climate mitigation and adaptation goals. Complementarily, countries should also formulate and implement National Adaptation Plans (NAP) and periodically update them. This means that every country is required by law to outline a course of action in response to global warming and submit a pledge with specific objectives it is committed to achieving. These pledges are then reviewed and renewed every five years. Every round of pledges is meant to intensify the level of commitment and is negotiable, meaning that other parties can offer concessions or support in return for a more robust pledge. The pledge and review method were introduced first in 1991; however, in 1997, the international community chose to adopt legally binding emission reduction targets in the Kyoto Protocol. The pledge and review methods were reintroduced in the 2009 Copenhagen Accord, following its limited success and the inability to reach an agreement on new targets. The NDC wording took the place of the pledge-and-review expression in the negotiations that resulted in the Paris Agreement. The fact that NDCs rely on voluntary commitments from signatory nations—many of whom lack the financial, technological, or institutional means to effectively combat climate change—has drawn criticism. Setting top-down targets, however, results in a distributional problem among nations that has proven unsolvable. Furthermore, targets are by no means a good solution in the absence of efficient review and compliance procedures. Since pledges—both in terms of the degree of commitment and the methods used—are subject to review and are not legally binding, NDCs offer a more practical strategy for international collaboration on mitigating climate change.1 The “naming and shaming” process—a form of peer and reputational pressure—is the foundation of the NDC method. Climate change politics have gradually changed because of the rise of bottom-up society initiatives and transnational networks of non-govern-mental actors, placing increased pressure on national governments and international organizations.

Farmer perceptions, knowledge, and management of fall armyworm in maize production in Uganda

Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith), fall armyworm (FAW), a polyphagous Noctuid pest, was first reported in Uganda in 2016. Farmers were trained to identify and manage the pest, but there was a lack of information on farmer knowledge, perceptions and practices deployed to control it. Therefore, we conducted a survey to assess maize farmers’ knowledge, perceptions and management of the pest during the invasion. We interviewed 1,289 maize farmers from 10 maize-growing agro-ecological zones (AEZ) of Uganda using well-structured questionnaires. The data were analyzed using R version 4.2.3. The respondents faced many constraints, including pests, drought, poor soils and labor constraints. Among the pests, FAW was ranked by most (85%) of the respondents as the number one pest problem in maize, and some farmers reported having noticed it way back in 2014. By 2018, more than 90% of the farmers had seen or heard about FAW, and about 80% saw FAW in their fields. The most common FAW symptoms reported by maize farmers were windowing, near tunnel damage, and holes on the cobs. The developmental stages of FAW identified by farmers included eggs (10%), young larvae (78.7%), mature larvae (73.5%) and adult moths (6.7%). Insecticides were the major control tactic, although some farmers used plant extracts, hand-picking, sand, and ash. Farmers sourced information on FAW from various sources, including fellow farmers, radio/TV, extension agents, input dealers, print media, research and NGO extension. There is a need to package clear and uniform information for the farmers and to develop and promote a sustainable solution for FAW management, including harnessing biological control and cultural practices.

Perceptions towards management of acute malnutrition by community health volunteers in northern Kenya

Child undernutrition is a persistent challenge in arid and semi-arid areas due to low and erratic rainfall, recurrent droughts and food insecurity. In these settings, caregivers face several challenges in accessing health services for sick and/or malnourished children, including long distances to health facilities, harsh terrain, and lack of money to pay for transportation costs to the health facilities, leading to low service coverage and sub-optimal treatment outcomes. To address these challenges and optimize treatment outcomes, the World Health Organization recommends utilizing community health volunteers (CHVs) to manage acute malnutrition in the community. This study explored the perceptions of community members regarding acute malnutrition treatment by CHVs in Turkana and Isiolo counties in Kenya. The study utilized a cross-sectional study design and included a purposive sample of caregivers of children, CHVs, officers who trained and supervised CHVs and community leaders in the intervention area. Focus group discussions and key informant interviews were used to explore perceptions towards the management of acute malnutrition by CHVs. Generally, caregivers and CHVs perceived the intervention to be beneficial as it readily addressed acute malnutrition treatment needs in the community. The intervention was perceived to be acceptable, effective, and easily accessible. The community health structure provided a platform for commodity supply and management and CHV support supervision. This was a major enabler in implementing the intervention. The intervention faced operational and systemic challenges that should be considered before scale-up.

Rice productivity and profitability in Myanmar: Assessment of the 2023 monsoon

We have analyzed rice productivity and profitability data for the 2023 monsoon season from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS), conducted at the beginning of 2024. This survey encompassed plots managed by 2,840 rice producers, distributed across all states/regions of the country. Our findings reveal: 1. National rice productivity exhibited an average increase of 7 percent during the 2023 monsoon compared to the previous year, reversing the decline witnessed in the 2022 monsoon. This year’s heightened productivity primarily stems from increased input usage (particularly fertilizer), greater labor inputs (with more farmers adopting transplanting), and reduced occurrences of natural shocks, notably droughts. 2. The Ayeyarwady region, the country’s principal rice-producing area, experienced an 11 percent increase in rice productivity. Conversely, rice yields remained low in Kayah and Chin, two states affected by severe conflict. The highest yields, along with notable increases over the past three years, are observed in Nay Pyi Taw. 3. Significant changes in input costs for rice cultivation were observed between the two seasons: 3.1 Prices of urea, the most important chemical fertilizer used by rice farmers, decreased by 16 percent. 3.2 Mechanization costs surged by a notable 42 percent, which is concerning, especially in light of escalating rural labor scarcity. Particularly pronounced increases in mechanization costs were noted in coastal areas where fuel prices were high, or fuel was not available at all. 4. Substantial changes in technology adoption and input utilization compared to the previous monsoon were noted: 4.1 Fertilizer use on rice increased by 20 percent. 4.2 Use of self-preserved seed – instead of obtaining it from the market – increased by 6 percentage points compared to last monsoon, and 17 percentage points compared to 2020. 4.3 Transplanting increased by 5 percentage points while broadcasting declined by 7 percentage points. 4.4 The use of combine harvesters on rice was 1 percentage point lower compared to last year but was 12 percentage points lower than in 2020. 5. Thirty percent of paddy farmers reported being impacted by climatic or other production shocks during this monsoon, with floods (reported by seven percent of farmers) and droughts (reported by five percent) having significant adverse effects on yields. When affected, paddy yields decreased by 32 and 51 percent, respectively. Incidences of pests, diseases, and weeds have the highest frequency overall (13 percent). 6. Substantial changes in input usage and technology adoption were observed in paddy cultivation within coastal areas (Rakhine and Tanintharyi), seemingly linked to insecurity, mobility constraints, and fuel accessibility issues: 6.1 Fertilizer use declined by one-third. 6.2 The utilization of combine harvesters plummeted by 26 percentage points. 7. Paddy prices at the farm level surged by 64 percent, reflecting changes in international rice prices as well as the depreciation of the MMK. 8. Real – in terms of the cost of an average food basket – profits from rice farming during the monsoon of 2023 increased by 43 percent compared to the previous year. While nominal profits doubled since the previous monsoon, high price inflation tempered the increase in real profits. 9. The paddy sector has proven resilient in 2023, with improved pricing incentivizing farmers to intensify production through increased usage of chemical fertilizers and labor inputs. The outlook for paddy production in 2024 appears promising yet uncertain due to the following factors: 1. Weather conditions: Adverse weather, as witnessed during the 2023 monsoon, can significantly impact yields. Most models predict the El Niño conditions – with drier-than-average rainfall conditions – to continue weakening. 2. Evolution of insecurity: Insecurity correlates with reduced access to inputs and, when accessible, higher costs, thereby lowering profitability for farmers. 3. Labor scarcity: Labor availability is expected to become increasingly constrained in the next monsoon due to significant out-migration linked to the Military Service Law. 4. Fuel availability: A quarter of Myanmar’s farmers reported limited access to fuel during the post/pre-monsoon season of 2024, complicating irrigation, and agricultural mechanization, which is typically relied upon by most rice farmers. These findings underscore three primary implications for Myanmar’s rice sector: 1. Ensuring adequate access to mechanization for rice farmers: Despite benefiting from increased mechanization over the past decade, there is a concerning trend of dis-adoption in combine harvester usage, attributed to mobility issues and fuel accessibility problems. This is particularly worrisome given the anticipated rise in rural labor scarcity. 2. Emphasizing access to climate-resilient seeds: While farmers are increasingly relying on self-preserved paddy seeds, there is a pressing need for the adoption of improved, high yielding, and stress-resistant varieties. As evidenced by our results, farmers affected by floods and droughts experience significantly lower yields than unaffected farmers. Given an expected increase of weather shocks, higher adoption of adapted seeds is required. 3. Addressing the impact of high rice prices on food security: While beneficial for farmers, elevated paddy prices contribute to high rice prices in the country, posing a significant concern, especially for the most vulnerable segments of the population.2 The most effective means of mitigating the adverse effects of high rice prices on poor consumers is through expanded safety net programs, providing additional liquidity directly to them.

Famine in Gaza, questions for research and preventive action

The ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza is unprecedented in terms of the share of the population experiencing acute food insecurity and famine and the speed of the onset of the crisis. Research can help understand and anticipate the long-term impacts of the conflict on people and livelihoods, design more effective humanitarian support systems and identify options for creating resilient post-conflict livelihoods.

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: April 2024

Price trends of Q1 of 2024 (January-March) The price of sweet potato in lowland markets of Port Moresby, Lae and Kokopo is more than double the cost in highland markets of Goroka and Banz. The price of imported rice remained stable across all markets, except in Banz where a 1 kg bag of rice decreased by 18 percent between January and March, 2024. Prices of vegetables in Goroka market decreased on average by 13 percent (except aibika and pakchoi) between January and March. Prices of all vegetables in Port Moresby increased on average by 56 percent between January and March, 2024. Fruits such as pawpaw and pineapple had mixed price trends across market. Pineapple increased on average by 28 percent in all markets. On average, the price of pineapple per kilo increased 29 percent price in Goroka, Kokopo and Banz between January and March, 2024.

Evidence of potential impacts of a nutrition-sensitive agroecology program in Andhra Pradesh, India, on dietary diversity, nutritional status, and child development

Introduction While a number of studies have examined the nutritional impacts of agroecological interventions, few have examined impacts on child development, maternal and child anemia, and men’s dietary diversity. Moreover, there have been few such evaluations at scale. We evaluated the impact of a large-scale, multi-component food-based nutrition intervention involving homestead food production, nutrition counselling, cooking demonstrations, and crop planning exercises. Methods A cross-sectional assessment was conducted in 2021–2022 of 50 intervention villages where the nutrition-sensitive agroecology program had been implemented since 2018 and 79 control villages where only the agroecology program had been implemented. Data on self-reported dietary intake, caregiver-reported early child development, anthropometric measurements, and hemoglobin concentrations were collected using standardized procedures by trained Nutrition Farming Fellows, who were also responsible for implementing the program. Results A sample of 3,511 households (1,121 intervention and 2,390 control) participated in the survey. Dietary diversity scores (DDS) among women and men were mean (SD) 6.53 (±1.62) and 6.16 (±1.65), respectively, in intervention villages and 5.81 (±1.58) and 5.39 (±1.61), respectively, in control villages (p<0.01). DDS among children 6–24 months of age in intervention and control villages was 2.99 (±1.52) and 2.73 (±1.62), respectively (p<0.01). Children <2 years of age were less likely to be anemic in intervention versus control villages (59% versus 69%, p<0.01). Children 18–35 months age in intervention villages had higher child development scores than children in control villages (all p<0.05). Conclusion Nutrition-sensitive agroecological programs may be effective in improving diets, nutrition, and child development in rural India.

Food trade policy and food price volatility

Food trade barriers in many countries are systematically adjusted to insulate domestic markets from world price changes—a response not predicted by traditional political economy models. In this study, policymakers are assumed to minimize the political costs associated with changing domestic prices and deviating from longer-run political-economy equilibria. Error correction techniques applied to domestic and world price data for rice and wheat collected to measure trade policy distortions allow estimation of policy response parameters. The results suggest that systematic short-run price insulation reduces shocks to domestic prices but sharply increases world price volatility and the costs of trade distortions. However, idiosyncratic domestic price shocks resulting from inefficient policy instruments such as quantitative restrictions increase domestic price volatility relative to the magnified volatility of world prices—frequently outweighing the stabilizing impacts of price insulation. This fundamentally changes our understanding of the impacts of price-insulation—from a zero-sum game where some countries reduce the volatility of their prices using beggar-thy-neighbor policies that raise price volatility elsewhere, into one where price volatility rises in most countries. National policy reforms to move away from discretionary, destabilizing policies could lower costs, reduce volatility in domestic and world prices, and facilitate reform of international trade rules.

The enabling environment for large-scale food fortification in Madagascar

Why is there high variability—both across countries and across different food staples—in the adoption and implementation of large-scale food fortification (LSFF)? A systematic diagnostic of the enabling environment for LSFF can identify key bottlenecks and help to calibrate policy interventions appropriately. This paper delineates the components of such a tool by focusing on two core elements of the enabling environment—political will and implementation capacity—and applies the framework to Madagascar. With more than 75 percent of its population living below the poverty line and almost 40 percent of children under five who are stunted, Madagascar faces major hurdles to addressing malnutrition, including weak consumer purchasing power, recurrent political crises, and frequent climate shocks that undermine agricultural productivity. LSFF has been identified in several national nutrition plans as an option for addressing malnutrition. Yet, thus far, only salt has been fortified at a national scale. Drawing on semi-structured interviews with 31 knowledgeable stakeholders in Madagascar in the areas of mandatory fortification of salt, voluntary targeted fortification of infant flour, and fortification of foods for humanitarian assistance, the framework reveals several key priorities. First, weak governance overall affects several dimensions of nutrition and fortification policy, including policy momentum, commitment, and communication. Nutrition interventions therefore need to be calibrated to the country’s broader political risks, incentive structures, and capacities of relevant civil servants. To this end, fortification advocates should go beyond drawing on the expertise of nutrition professionals alone and also engage public sector governance experts as partners in fortification efforts. Second, major priorities for investment include a large-scale micronutrient and consumption survey to update information on micronutrient deficiencies and identify viable food vehicles for mass fortification. Third, an accredited laboratory to test micronutrients is sorely needed in the country to help reduce costs faced by companies who currently send their products overseas for testing and who face competition from counterfeit products. Fourth, financial and technical partners must pursue a multi-pronged lobby approach to overcome high government taxes on imported premix. Fifth, the National Food Fortification Alliance, which serves as a multi-stakeholder platform, requires a sustainable financing model to attract committed leadership and ensure consistent coordination activities. These and other lessons hold policy relevance for other low-income and fragile settings where LSFF is being considered as an option to address micronutrient deficiencies.

Assessing the impact of rice price stabilization policies in Bangladesh: Results from a stochastic spatial equilibrium model

Rice plays a central role in the diet in Bangladesh and as a source of income for farmers. Although Bangladesh has largely liberalized international trade in rice, it maintains a public food distribution system to stablize prices, distributing an average of 2 million tons of rice per year at a cost of almost US$ 800 million per year. This study explores whether alternative policies could achieve similar stabilization at a lower cost. It uses a stochastic spatial-equilibrium model of rice markets to simulate monthly prices in eight regions of the country. Stochastic shocks are used to simulate fluctuations in regional production, replicating historical patterns at the region-season level, as well as inter-regional correlation in production shocks. It also simulates fluctuation in world rice prices, mimicking the mean, variance, and serial correlation of historical wholesale prices of rice in Delhi. Public procurement and distribution follow historic averages by month and region. Private storage is represented by a simplified version of rational expectations models, in which net storage is a non-linear function of availability in the previous month. One set of simulations tests alternative levels of distribution, finding that cutting distribution to 1 million tons would have minimal effects on the level of rice price stability. Another set of simulations tested different import tariff levels, including the baseline rate of 25%1. We find that lower tariffs result in both lower rice prices and less price instability, as world rice prices tend to be more stable than local prices. Simulating a buffer stock with different price bands shows that a narrow band can achieve high price stability but at a high fiscal cost. A 20 T/kg (USD 0.26/kg) price band generates similar price stabilization at a lower cost compared to current policy. However, it is difficult to set the “right” purchase and sale price, and many simulations result in exhausting reserves or reaching warehouse capacity. An adaptive buffer stock, in which the price is adjusted as the stock runs too low or too high, solves some of these problems. In general, the study finds that current procurement and distribution patterns do not match well with the regional and monthly patterns of surplus and deficit, possibly reflecting multiple and conflicting goals of the public food distribution system.

Impact of India’s Farm Science Centers (Krishi Vigyan Kendras) on farm households’ economic welfare: An evidence from a national farmer survey

This study examines the impact of access to India’s farm science centers (Krishi Vigyan Kendras, or KVKs) on agricultural households’ welfare using household data from the nationally representative Situation Assessment Survey of Agricultural Households conducted by India’s National Sample Survey Office in 2013. Employing different matching techniques and endogenous switching regression models, it was observed that the KVKs have a positive and statistically significant impact on agricultural households’ economic welfare, although, that impact is heterogeneous. Further, the investments made in expansion of India’s network of KVKs have been quite remunerative, as the benefit- to-cost ratio of expenditure on KVKs ranges from 8–12. Moreover, present findings suggest that expanding rural formal credit markets and promoting literacy can maximize the potential impact of KVKs on agricultural households’ economic welfare.

Synopsis: Crop commercialization in Rwanda: Current market participation and drivers

As Rwanda emerges from the effects of COVID-19 and global price shocks caused by the Russia/Ukrainian conflict, there is an opportunity to focus on agricultural fundamentals to drive its economic transformation. One aspect of the transformation is how farm households are engaging in crop commercialization. This policy note outlines basic findings and suggested recommendations derived from a 2022 Rwandan commercialization household survey. Our basic unit of analysis is total crop sold divided by total value produced, averaged at either the household or individual crop level. Key findings include:  Approximately 20% of our sampled smallholder households do not sell any crops. However, contrary to a subsistence/commercial farm dichotomy, most households sell on a broad continuum ranging from 1 – 100% with an average of 33% of their total crop production marketed.  Crop value per hectare increases with greater marketed sales, indicating that farmers switch from lower value food crops (e.g. beans, cassava, maize) to cash crops such as fruits and vegetables where they market higher percentages.  Crop value per hectare is not correlated with land size, revealing that crop choices drive value and not increasing land-related economies of scale. This finding underscores the pivotal role of crop selection in determining agricultural productivity and economic returns, rather than mere expansion of land holdings.  Irrigation, land size, hiring labor and input purchases increase market participation as well as percentage of sales. Conversely, a larger family size has a negative effect on both.

Synopsis: Agricultural Mechanization in Rwanda

Optimal agricultural mechanization strategies in Rwanda can be better informed by a closer assessment of diverse production environments and experiences in other countries with similar topography. The findings from Rwanda’s latest agricultural surveys, review of recent experiences in countries with rugged terrain and smallholder farming systems similar to Rwanda and reviewing mechanization support strategies from other countries suggest that identifying mechanization technologies suitable for different types of farms, promoting greater private-sector innovations while focusing on the relevant public goods aspect of mechanization is the most promising way forward. Key findings include the following: • Variations in agroecology and cropping systems, irrigated/rainfed systems, farm size, and labor use intensity, among other factors, characterize the key types of mechanization use in Rwanda. • In the medium term, smallholders cultivating rainfed maize and legumes, in addition to irrigated rice, can benefit from the use of tractors, as well as irrigation pumps. • However, farm wages may still be too low and tractor-hiring fees may still be too high in Rwanda to induce a shift to mechanization in the short term. • Policy support for mechanization can focus on improving the understanding of mechanization needs among each type of farmers identified, knowledge of suitable machines, and required skills for their operations and maintenance. • Developing competitive markets and supply networks for promising machines, parts, and repair services at a viable and integrated market scale is also important.

Synopsis: Identifying farm typologies in Rwandan agriculture: A framework for improving targeted interventions

Research from a recent IFPRI agricultural survey indicates that there is a broad spectrum of commercial engagement by Rwandan farmers. While this continuum is important for understanding commercialization, grouping farmers by relevant commonalities further improves our knowledge of how different groups engage in markets. Moving beyond simple subsistence and commercialized farmer dichotomies, this study provides a more nuanced understanding by grouping smallholder farmers into types, or typologies, based on 35 common characteristics that are both consistent within these groups and relatively diverse between them. Specifically, this analysis identifies five types of Rwandan farmers, in two broad groups, that disaggregates rural households into meaningful categories for varied potential responses to economic opportunities as well as potential strategic interventions.

Soil quality evaluation for irrigated agroecological zones of Punjab, Pakistan: The Luenberger indicator approach

This article describes the construction of the Luenberger soil quality indicator (SQI) using data on crop yield, non-soil inputs, and soil profile from three irrigated agroecological zones of Punjab, Pakistan, namely, rice–wheat, maize–wheat–mix, and cotton–mix zones. Plot level data are used to construct a soil quality indicator by estimating directional distance functions within a data envelopment analysis (DEA) framework. We find that the SQI and crop yield relationships exhibit diminishing returns to improving soil quality levels. Using the constructed SQI values, we estimate linear regression models to generate weights that could be used directly to aggregate individual soil attributes into soil quality indicators without the necessity of fitting a frontier to the crop production data. For wheat and rice production, we find that SQI is most sensitive to changes in soil electrical conductivity (EC) and potassium (K). The SQI has direct relevance for site-specific decision-making problems where policymakers need to price land resources and conservation services to achieve agricultural and environmental goals.

Land tenure change and agricultural production and productivity in Uzbekistan

Identifying farm typologies in Rwandan agriculture: A framework for improving targeted interventions

This paper explores the broad spectrum of commercial engagement by Rwandan farmers by grouping farmers according to characteristics of the head of household, the degree of commercialization of their farms, size of livestock holdings and other factors. We use statistical methodologies, including factor and cluster analysis, combined with existing knowledge of the agricultural sector to define five types of Rwandan farmers, separated into two broad groups. The first group (Group A) includes three types broadly classified as less wealthy, less commercialized, with a net negative gross margin. Within this group the three types of farmers include: Type 1—Less commercialized older male headed households with larger families, Type 2—Better educated, youth headed households, who are more market oriented but have smaller land holdings, Type 3—Older female headed households who produce relatively lower agricultural production value relative to their assets owned. The second group (Group B) comprises two types of farmers. This group are wealthier, sell more crops with positive gross margins and larger landholdings. More specifically, farm type 4 is commercialized with higher access to agricultural extension services and inputs and farm type 5, also highly commercialized, but has significant livestock holdings as well. Taken together, these two groups, and five farm types, provide a framework to aid in understanding how commercialization takes place in smallholder Rwandan agriculture. This framework may also help in understanding how potential interventions would be received by various types of Rwanda farmers, thereby facilitating more efficient targeting of agricultural interventions.

Crop commercialization in Rwanda: Current market participation and drivers

In this paper, we explore the current levels and participation of crop commercialization by Rwandan smallholder farmers. Our basic unit of analysis is total crop sales divided by the total value of crop production, either at the household or specific crop level. Overall, our findings suggest that approximately 80 percent of farmers participate in crop market sales and sell an average of 33 percent of their total production. However, there is a wide variety of percentage sales by crop and, in general, higher-valued crops are sold by more commercialized farm households. We also find that value of crop production per hectare rises with greater commercialization, suggesting that developing greater market commercialization, particularly with more valuable crops, may increase household incomes and aid in the economic transformation.

Gender bias in customer perceptions: The case of agro-input dealers in Uganda

CONTEXT Faced with incomplete and imperfect information, economic actors rely predominantly on perceptions and often base decisions on heuristics prone to bias. Gender bias in perceptions favoring men has been found in a variety of settings and may be an important reason why some sectors remain dominated by men and gender gaps in terms of benefits persist. In modernizing food supply chains in a patriarchal context such as the maize sub-sector in Uganda, this may result in women facing significant barriers to entry. OBJECTIVE Using a unique dataset of ratings of agro-input dealers provided by smallholder farmers in their vicinity, we test if farmers perceive male-managed agro-input shops differently than agro-input shops managed by women. METHODS We use a dyadic dataset of farmer-dealer links to explicitly control for quality differences between male- and female-managed agro-input shops and use the fact that a farmer has generally rated more than one agro-input to account for farmer-level heterogeneity using fixed-effects regression. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS We find that farmers rate male-managed agro-input outlets higher on a range of attributes related to the dealership in general, as well as on the quality of inputs sold by the dealer. After controlling for both dealer and farmer level confounders, we conclude that gender bias in customer perceptions persists. SIGNIFICANCE Our results suggest a comparative disadvantage and an important entry barrier for female agro-input dealers. The gender bias may also affect social outcomes like women’s capabilities, aspirations, and empowerment in seed systems but also impairs development at more aggregate levels: as a considerable share of agro-input shops is managed by women, this finding may impose challenges for varietal turnover, hindering agricultural productivity, food security, and rural transformation. Policies and interventions designed to challenge gender norms and customs are needed to correct this bias.

What I say depends on how you ask: Experimental evidence of the effect of framing on the measurement of attitudes

We use a survey experiment to document the presence of framing effects in the measurement of attitudes. Next, using standard techniques for generating aggregate indices, we find that statement framing can meaningfully influence the relationship of the index with relevant covariates—in some cases changing the magnitude, statistical significance, and even the sign of the estimated relationship. We conclude by discussing how randomizing statement framing across respondents can help address bias in the measurement of attitudes.

Book review: Matias E. Margulis, Shadow negotiators: How UN organizations shape the rules of world trade for food security Stanford University Press, 2023

2023 annual report

IFPRI’s 2023 Annual Report offers highlights from our research around the world and of our analysis and communications on addressing global challenges that contribute to hunger and malnutrition. In 2023, IFPRI continued the critical work on crisis and resilience-building that began with the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and rising food prices. Our research also continued to inform policymakers and stakeholders on climate resilience and sustainability, healthy diets and nutrition, inclusive and efficient food systems, institutions and governance, and rural transformation, all with attention to gender and the world’s most vulnerable people, with the goals of reducing poverty and ending hunger and malnutrition.

A landscape analysis of youth engagement in agripreneurship in Malawi

This report aims to explore the multidimensional challenges and opportunities for youth in agripreneurship in Malawi for a better understanding of interventions for youth in agribusiness. It examines the enabling and disenabling environment for young agripreneurs and how best to engage youth within the agribusiness sector. The report draws on in-depth interviews, workshops, and secondary literature to highlight key issues and strategies to engage youth agripreneurs in Malawi. It also offers recommendations for actors, practitioners, and policymakers to enhance transformative interventions for youth participation in agribusiness. Suggested measures include improving access to input, market, and equipment, setting up quota systems targeting youth agripreneurs, and better coordinating youth programs between ministries and the private sectors. The report also emphasized that these strategies are not just to achieve youth inclusion in agribusiness but also for the sustainability of youth programs which contribute to building resilient societies.

Agricultural mechanization policy options in Rwanda

This paper summarizes general demand- and supply-side issues for agricultural mechanization based on recent studies that focus on experiences and evidence from both Africa and Asia. The paper pro vides typologies of agricultural mechanization in Rwanda along with policy options within the context of its current mechanization support strategies. Provincial variations in agroecology and cropping systems, irrigated/rainfed systems, farm size, and labor use intensity, among other factors, characterize the key types of mechanization use in Rwanda. Support for mechanization in Rwanda can be broadly tailored to (a) irrigated medium-scale farmers in the Eastern province and Kigali; (b) rainfed medium-scale farmers in the Eastern and Southern provinces; (c) rainfed, small-scale highland farmers in the Northern province; and (d) irrigated small-scale farmers in the Western province. Recent experiences in other countries with rugged terrain and smallholder farming systems similar to Rwanda suggest that significant growth in the use of tractors is possible in the medium term among smallholders cultivating rainfed maize and legumes, in addition to irrigated rice. However, farm wages may still be too low in Rwanda and tractor-hiring fees may still be too high to induce a shift to mechanization in the short term. Therefore, it may be advisable for policy support for mechanization to focus on improving the understanding of mechanization needs among each type of farmers identified, knowledge of suitable machines, and required skills for their operations and maintenance. Such efforts should also balance the need to develop competitive markets and supply networks for promising machines, parts, and repair services at a viable and integrated market scale.