Publications and Datasets

Sustainable livestock development in Sudan: Challenges, opportunities, and policy priorities

Livestock in Sudan plays a crucial role in the national economy, particularly in alleviating poverty and enhancing food security. Despite its significance, the last comprehensive livestock census for the country was conducted in 1975, resulting in now outdated and often unreliable data. Recent estimates by USAID indicate that Sudan ranks among the top three African countries in terms of livestock numbers, with an estimated 105.6 million animals. The livestock population in Sudan is predominantly composed of camels, goats, sheep, and cattle. The spatial distribution of livestock is variable and influenced by local factors such as feed resources, land use, and ecological conditions. The Greater Kordofan and Greater Darfur regions have the largest livestock numbers. However, discrepancies between official statistics and field data show the need for updated and accurate livestock data. The livestock sector provides 40 percent of employment and 34 percent of Sudan’s agricultural gross domestic product (GDP). The livestock sector is a vital source of foreign exchange for the Sudanese economy through exports of livestock and livestock products. Besides its economic contributions, the livestock sector provides essential food products, including meat, eggs, and milk, and draught power for agricultural operations and transportation, particularly in rural areas. However, relative to irrigated agriculture, the sector faces challenges due to underinvestment and minimal government attention.

IFPRI Malawi Monthly Maize Market Report, July 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi to provide clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. All prices are reported in Malawi Kwacha (K).

2017/18 Social Accounting Matrix for Indian State Bihar

The Nexus Project is a collaboration between IFPRI and its partners, including national statistical agencies and research institutions. Our aim is to improve the quality of social accounting matrices (SAMs) used for computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. The Nexus Project develops toolkits and establishes common data standards, procedures, and classification systems for constructing and updating national SAMs. The 2017/18 Indian State Bihar SAM follows the Standard Nexus Structure. The open access version of the Indian State Bihar SAM separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital. Labor is further disaggregated across three education categories. Representative households are disaggregated by rural and urban areas and by per capita consumption expenditure quintile. The remaining accounts include enterprises, government, taxes, savings-and-investment, and the rest of the world.

2017/18 Social Accounting Matrix for Indian State Uttar Pradesh

The Nexus Project is a collaboration between IFPRI and its partners, including national statistical agencies and research institutions. Our aim is to improve the quality of social accounting matrices (SAMs) used for computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. The Nexus Project develops toolkits and establishes common data standards, procedures, and classification systems for constructing and updating national SAMs. The 2017/18 Indian State Uttar Pradesh SAM follows the Standard Nexus Structure. The open access version of the Indian State Uttar Pradesh SAM separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital. Labor is further disaggregated across three education categories. Representative households are disaggregated by rural and urban areas and by per capita consumption expenditure quintile. The remaining accounts include enterprises, government, taxes, savings-and-investment, and the rest of the world.

South Asia Nutrition Knowledge Initiative: Abstract Digest August 2024

In this third edition of the South Asia Nutrition Knowledge Initiative’s Abstract Digest, we present studies on global, regional, and country-specific evidence on various topics of nutrition. These include the impact of short birth intervals on child malnutrition in the Asia-Pacific region, a summary of lessons from program evaluations of food systems interventions for nutrition in South Asia, the effect of zinc supplementation in pregnant and lactating mothers in a three-country study, and a review of evidence on school meals, impact on nutrition, and their other evolving dimensions. The peer-reviewed country-specific studies are on anemia among women in Bangladesh, the double burden of malnutrition among women of reproductive age in India, and reproductive and child health transitions in India. Other country-specific studies pertain to community-based and nutrition program and multi-sectoral community development interventions in Nepal, and utilization of an integrated child development services program in India. This issue also includes studies focusing on methods, such as measures for coverage of nutrition-sensitive social protection programs, a systematic scoping review examining aspects of quantitative nutrition research engaging with the intersectionality of inequities, a protocol to develop a data repository to support interdisciplinary research into childhood stunting, and a concept exploratory study on empowerment among adolescent girls. We also highlight the availability of an open-access dataset for an integrated food systems assessment, which includes a wealth of data collected from Bangladesh, India, and Nepal spanning climate adaptation, agricultural production, food purchasing and shopping practices, gender disparities in unhealthy eating, adolescent diets and aspirations, and much more! Below is the list of articles. Please scroll down to explore the abstracts in the pages that follow. If this Abstract Digest was forwarded to you, we invite you to subscribe. Happy reading!

Conflict, inclusivity, and transformation of the rice value chain in Myanmar

In numerous low- and middle-income countries, agricultural value chains (AVC) are undergoing rapid transformation, yet scant evidence exists regarding such changes in fragile and conflict- affected settings, and little is known about inclusivity in this transformation. This study focuses on changes in Myanmar’s rice value chain – using unique large-scale primary data – from 2013 to 2022, during an economic boom and subsequent political upheaval and conflict. We document remarkable shifts, including a fourfold increase in rice exports, propelling Myanmar to the world’s fifth-largest rice exporter. Concurrently, domestic market conditions improved, and there was modernization in the ‘hidden middle’ of the value chain including increased investments in modern milling equipment and drying methods. At the farm level we note greater adoption of modern inputs (e.g., improved seed) and harvest/post-harvest technologies and increased reliance on modern specialized service providers. The transformation was not everywhere inclusive, and modernization in some areas decelerated due to conflict. Mills and farms in insecure and conflict-affected areas, as well as remote millers and smallholders, participated to a lesser extent, and the gaps widened during the crisis years. The rapid modernization in Myanmar’s rice value chain from 2013 to 2019 highlights the positive impacts of stable governance, infrastructure investment, and liberalization on AVC transformation while the observed variations in modernization inclusivity across different segments of the value chain underscore the complex interplay between governance, conflict, and AVC transformation. JEL Codes: Q13, Q17, Q18

Assessing the development impacts of bio-innovations: The case of genetically modified maize and cassava in Tanzania

Tanzania’s agriculture is characterized by low productivity due to unpredictable rainfall and the prevalence of pests and diseases. Genetically modified (GM) maize offering protection against drought and insects are being developed. Likewise, GM varieties resistant to cassava brown streak disease were developed. Building on prior crop-based analyses, we use the Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) CGE model to assess the impacts of the adoption of those GM crops. GM maize and cassava have positive effects on the economy, the Agri-Food System (AFS), and poverty. Given its stronger linkages in the AFS, the effects of the GM maize are stronger, especially in higher adoption and high yield scenarios. Likewise, the effects on the poorest and rural households are greater. The high variation across scenarios, and the significant effect of the high adoption/high yield scenarios, suggests a high return to investments and policies that realize these adoption rates and yield potential. JEL Codes: O10, O30, O55

Traders and agri-food value chain resilience: the case of maize in Myanmar

Myanmar has experienced a sequence of dire crises beginning in 2019 including the unexpected closure of a principal trade route, COVID-19 lockdowns and travel restrictions, and a military coup leading to years of disruptions in the banking and transport sectors, inflation, and conflict. Yet, through these cascading shocks Myanmar’s maize sector experienced robust growth in production and exports. This paper examines the reasons underlying this apparent paradox and our findings contribute to the small but growing literatures on agri-food value chain (AVC) resilience and adaptation by traders. Strengthening the resilience of AVCs to shocks has important implications for welfare in developing countries and is increasingly drawing attention from policymakers and development partners. Using data from several sources including rare panel data sets of traders and farmers, and key informant interviews, we show that crop traders have been critical to the resilience of the maize value chain in Myanmar during this turbulent period. Maize traders performed three key functions contributing to resilience: (i) market discovery when primary trade routes were closed; (ii) overcoming transportation disruptions and bank closures to move maize from the farmgate to local and export markets; (iii) maintaining flows of credit to farmers throughout the crises in the form of selling inputs on credit and lending cash, thereby injecting much needed liquidity at times of incredible uncertainty, disruptions in the banking sector, and rising input prices. JEL Codes: Q13, D74, Q02, Q12, D22

Climate shocks and fertilizer responses: Field-level evidence for rice production in Bangladesh

The fertilizer response of yield has been one of the major indicators of agricultural productivity in both developed and developing countries. Filling the evidence gap remains vital regarding fertilizer response in Asia, particularly in South Asia, given the evolution and emergence of new challenges, including intensifying climate shocks. We aim to partly fill this knowledge gap by investigating the associations between climate shocks and fertilizer response in Bangladeshi rice production. Using three rounds of nationally representative farm household panel data with plot- level information, we assess fertilizer response functions regarding rice yield and how the shapes of these response functions are heterogeneous in relation to anomalies in temperatures, droughts, and rainfall. We find robust evidence that climate anomalies have adverse effects on fertilizer responses, including higher temperatures for the Boro and the Aman irrigated systems and higher temperatures and droughts for the Aman rainfed systems. These findings hold robustly under various fertilizer response function forms, i.e., polynomial function and stochastic Linear Response Plateau. Furthermore, results for stochastic Linear Response Plateau are also consistent for both switching regression type models and Bayesian regression models. JEL Codes: Q01, Q12, Q01, Q19

Remoteness, farm production, and dietary diversity in Nepal

This paper explores the relationship between agriculture, dietary diversity, and market access in Nepal, testing the complex causal chains involved, and the nuanced connections between production diversity and dietary diversity among smallholder farmers. While diversifying farm production could enhance dietary diversity, the case of Nepal indicates a varied and context specific relationship. Market access emerges as a crucial factor, often exerting a more significant impact on smallholder farm households than production diversity. Access to markets not only influences economic viability but also contributes directly to food and nutrition security, offering a practical solution to address dietary needs. Focusing on Nepal’s diverse terrain, the study analyzes the interplay of remoteness, market access, irrigation availability, and complementary inputs in shaping farmers’ decisions, providing valuable insights into sustainable agricultural strategies for improved dietary outcomes in low- and middle-income countries. JEL Codes: D13, I15, O12, Q10, Q12, Q18

Nutrition and diet profile: Sri Lanka

• Sri Lanka faces a double burden of malnutrition with the co-existence and persistence of multiple forms of malnutrition, e.g., stunting, wasting, underweight, overweight/ obesity, anemia, and micronutrient deficiences. • Inadequate intake of many micronutrients is common across several population groups in Sri Lanka, indicating low intake of nutrient-dense foods such as F&Vs and animal-source foods. • A diverse diet with adequate intake of nutrient-dense foods should be encouraged to address nutrient gaps among Sri Lankans and reduce the risk of NCDs. • Many government-issued diet- and nutrition-related policies, strategies, and programs have been adopted in Sri Lanka. However, these often do not place enough emphasis on F&Vs. • While national food based dietary guidelines exist, as well as other guidelines and policies, there is uncertainty about the level of public awareness and the population’s adherence to the recommendations. • Evaluations of diet- and nutrition-related interventions are also scarce, indicating a need for rigorous evidence on what works to help guide programs and policies that aim to improve diet and nutrition outcomes among Sri Lankans.

Educational impacts of an unconditional cash transfer program in Mali

In rural West Africa, the rate of out-of-school children is high and delayed entry to primary school is common, particularly for girls. Using the randomized roll-out of a large-scale unconditional cash transfer program in Mali, we examine its impact on child schooling by age and sex. The program leads to significant improvements in schooling outcomes for girls, but not boys. Improvements are especially salient among younger (ages 6–9) and older (ages 15–18) girls. Complementary analysis reveals that the program reduces the time younger girls spend in agricultural work at home and the time older girls spend in domestic work as well as self-employment. Households in the program also spend more on education for older girls in terms of school fees, materials, and transport.

Special issue opening editorial: Designing, assessing and scaling approaches for integrated seed sector development

The paper of how: Estimating treatment effects using the front-door criterion

We illustrate the use of Pearl’s (1995) front-door criterion with observational data with an application in which the assumptions for point identification hold. For identification, the front-door criterion leverages exogenous mediator variables on the causal path. After a preliminary discussion of the identification assumptions behind and the estimation framework used for the front-door criterion, we present an empirical application. In our application, we look at the effect of deciding to share an Uber or Lyft ride on tipping by exploiting the algorithm-driven exogenous variation in whether one actually shares a ride conditional on authorizing sharing, the full fare paid, and origin–destination fixed effects interacted with two-hour interval fixed effects. We find that most of the observed negative relationship between choosing to share a ride and tipping is driven by customer selection into sharing rather than by sharing itself. In the Appendix, we explore the consequences of violating the identification assumptions for the front-door criterion.

From streets to tables: Bottom-up cocreation case studies for healthier food environments in Vietnam and Nigeria

Current food systems fail to provide equity, sustainability, and positive health outcomes, thus underscoring the critical need for their transformation. Intervening in food environments holds substantial promise for contributing to this much-needed transformation. Despite scholars and practitioners often recognizing the necessity for bottom-up approaches, there is a dearth of empirical investigations evaluating the potential of these approaches to contribute to food system transformations in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Our study aims to address this research gap, providing a unique perspective in this regard. Drawing on evidence from two co-creation case studies conducted with small-scale informal fruit and vegetable vendors and poor consumers in Vietnam and Nigeria from January 2020 to December 2021, we explore the relevance of bottom-up community-engaged co-creation processes in intervening within LMICs’ food retail environments. Employing a mixed-methods approach that includes quantitative surveys, qualitative interviews, participatory workshops, and focus group discussions, we demonstrate that bottom-up co-creation processes involving marginalized socioeconomic groups can generate retail-level innovations that are tailored to informal retail contexts, while remaining aligned with established top-down theories and literature pertaining to food environments and healthy diets. We provide empirical evidence highlighting how both vendors and consumers respond positively to the co-created innovations. Expanding upon our results, we offer methodological insights applicable to interventions targeted at food environments in LMICs, and considerations for future research or development initiatives in this domain. Our findings reveal the capacity of vulnerable stakeholders to actively engage in public health initiatives and contribute to developing innovative solutions that are context-specific and conducive to the adoption of healthier dietary practices. These results confirm the potential of bottom-up, co-creation, real-world interventions within informal settings to contribute towards fostering inclusive transformation of food systems.

School meals are evolving: Has the evidence kept up?

School meal programs are popular social programs. They are provided to 61 percent of primary students in high-income countries but to a smaller share of students in less wealthy countries. There is a body of evidence documenting their contribution to education, health and nutrition, and social protection. But in each domain, program objectives have evolved: schooling is recognized to be more about learning than grades obtained; nutrition goals include healthy diets that reduce risks of non-communicable diseases and are more environmentally responsible; social protection programs aim to respond to acute crises and address chronic poverty. In addition to assisting in these sectors, school meal programs are tasked with creating food systems that assist smallholder farmers, an endeavor that has yet to be extensively studied. This review examines the latest evidence on these evolving dimensions of school meal programs. Findings suggest that while there is a strong evidence base for school meals, there are also specific gaps in the evidence of effectiveness and a particular lack of clarity around costs. The country-led School Meals Coalition, developed in response to COVID pandemic-related school closures, has brought new momentum to national programs and new urgency for reliable evidence on effectiveness and costs.

Can participation in agricultural programmes improve youth agribusiness performance? Insights from the Enable Programme in East Africa

This study addresses the gap in understanding the impact of agribusiness empowerment programmes on youth business performance in developing countries, taking the case of the ENABLE-TAAT programme in Kenya and Uganda. A multistage sampling technique was used in obtaining primary agribusiness-level data from a sample of 1003 young agripreneurs from the study countries. An Endogenous Treatment Effect Regression (ETER) model was used to identify factors influencing programme participation and impact on youth agribusiness performance. Results show that marital status, agribusiness experience, asset value, credit access, residence, prior programme awareness, and perception were the key determinants of participation. The ETER results chow that participation in the programme significantly increased youth’s agribusiness income by 7 percent and food security by 76 percent, with participants having higher asset value than non-participants. Based on these findings, we suggest policy interventions or programmes focusing on youth agribusiness empowerment, particularly those that target young actors along different agricultural value chains. We also suggest interventions geared towards mitigating constraints to credit access by young agripreneurs to ease barriers to working capital and business innovation. To increase access and participation, we recommend strategies to improve youth perception and raise awareness of these programmes. JEL Codes: J000, J430, Q190

The causal effect of early marriage on women’s bargaining power: Evidence from Bangladesh

Early marriage restrains women’s agency and bargaining strength in postmarital households, impairing their ability to make meaningful contributions to household decision making. This paper employs a comprehensive measure of women’s empowerment in the domestic and productive spheres, and isolates the causal effect of age at marriage, instrumented by age at menarche, on their bargaining strength, using nationally representative data from Bangladesh. Results suggest that delayed marriages result in significantly higher empowerment scores and probability of being empowered for women, because of higher likelihood in achieving adequacy in their autonomy in agricultural production, control over income, ownership of assets and rights in those assets, and ability to speak in public. Favorable impacts of delayed marriage are also found on women’s freedom of mobility, fertility choices, and their ability to decide on household expenses and investments, with the impacts likely coming via improvements in education and labor market outcomes when women married later.

Papua New Guinea rural household survey (2023): Synopsis of selected results

From May to December 2023, IFPRI implemented the 2023 PNG Rural Household Survey which was designed to understand rural livelihoods and welfare across different areas of PNG (Schmidt et al., 2024). Given the rural nature of the survey sample, almost all surveyed households depend on their own-farm production (predominantly starchy roots and tubers) to meet daily caloric needs. On average, households reported utilizing about 1.6 hectares of land for agriculture cultivation at the time of the survey. The survey collected a detailed account of the quantity of food types consumed by the household in order to estimate the average caloric intake per adult equivalent. Comparing the estimated caloric intake reported by surveyed households, with a recommended calorie intake suggests that only 45 per cent of individuals in surveyed households meet the recommended daily caloric intake for a lightly active individual. The survey also collected anthropometry data for children under five years of age and found that 36 percent of surveyed children were stunted in their growth. The 2023 Rural Household Survey represents an important effort in collecting a wide breadth of information about rural livelihoods. However, greater investments of in-depth data collection and analysis should be undertaken to examine specific components of PNG household livelihood strategies.

Feeding minds, fueling futures: How School Feeding Programs (SFP) drive development in low-Income nations like Ethiopia

Ethiopian households face daunting challenges due to inflation, conflict, drought, climate change, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite significant socio-economic growth, the country remains highly susceptible to climate-induced shocks, compounded by destructive conflicts and persistent insecurity (1). Ethiopia is one of the most impacted countries in the world regarding food security, with up to 20 million (16% of the population) suffering from severe food insecurity (2,3). Many children are dropping out of school due to hunger (3). This predicament is exacerbated by students’ inability to concentrate or attend class, either due to hunger or familial obligations to seek food.

From bargaining power to empowerment: Measuring the unmeasurable

Measuring power is central to empirical work on intrahousehold and gender relations. Early efforts to test household models focused on measuring spousal bargaining power, usually in models featuring two decisionmakers within the household. Proxy measures for bargaining power included age, education, assets, and “outside options” that could affect spouses’ threat points within marriage. Evidence rejecting the collective model of the household has influenced the design of policies and programs, notably conditional cash transfer programs. Efforts have since shifted to measuring empowerment, drawing on theories of agency and power. Since 2010, several measures of women’s empowerment have been developed, including the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI) and its variants. A distinct feature of the WEAI, like other counting-based measures, is its decomposability into its component indicators, which makes identifying sources of disempowerment possible. The WEAI indicators also embody jointness of decision-making or ownership, which better reflects actual decision-making within households compared to 2-person bargaining models. This paper reviews how progress in the measurement of power within households has facilitated our understanding of household decision-making and creates new opportunities for programs and policy. JEL Codes: D13, J16, I38

Rural electrification and the changing energy irrigation nexus in Bihar

Over the past few decades Agricultural irrigation in South Asia has emerged to be dominantly groundwater sourced. The size and structure of a region’s groundwater economy is closely intertwined with its energy economy. Until only a few years ago, diesel was the main source of energy for groundwater irrigation in the region while farmers in the rest of South Asia had access to subsidized or free electricity to operate their pumps. With rapid improvements in rural energy supply, this energy-divide is now disappearing. This has potential to change the area’s groundwater energy nexus. Farmers in Bihar, a populous state of India, have installed more than 200 thousand electric pumps for irrigation since 2015. We use data from a representative sample of 1440 farmers from the state to assess the pattern of electrification of groundwater irrigation and its impact on pump ownership, water markets, and water use in agriculture. Electrification of irrigation is skewed towards west and south Bihar. On average, electric pump owners have smaller landholdings than diesel pump owners and they charge significantly lower irrigation fees from water buyers. However, three out of four pump owners report not selling water from their pumps. Farmers using electric pumps—owned or rented—irrigate their crops more intensively and have higher cropping intensity. Near free electricity for irrigation may undermine the fiscal and environmental sustainability of the irrigation led agricultural growth in Bihar.

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: July 2024

This bulletin provides an overview of select food prices during the second quarter of 2024, from April to June. During this quarter, two rounds of data were collected per month across all markets, except for Goroka in April and Lae in May, where only one round of data was collected. The prices presented here are the monthly averages. The graphs in this bulletin show price changes within the second quarter and compare second quarter prices with the first quarter of 2024, between January and March. To access the complete food price dataset, please download it from our website.

Papua New Guinea Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Policy Support Program

In Papua New Guinea (PNG), more than 80 percent of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods, with a vast majority working as smallholder farmers. Recognizing the need to revitalize and transform its agriculture sector, PNG’s government has set ambitious growth targets for agricultural exports and domestic agricultural production. It considers strategic investment in agricultural research and food security fundamental to overall economic growth and structural transformation. The Papua New Guinea Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Policy Support Program (PNG-AFNP), supported by the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) through the Australian High Commission (AHC) in Port Moresby, and the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR), will support PNG’s forward-looking strategy for economic growth and transformation through data-driven policy analysis, capability development, and strategic partnerships to inform policy dialogue and investment opportunities.

Addressing food system transformation, food security, and deforestation in Indonesia: Challenges and opportunities

This study identifies food system interventions with high transformational potential for Indonesia by utilizing the MIRAGRODEP a multi-region, multisector computable general equilibrium model to analyze policy scenarios. Our findings reveal a range of economic, social, and environmental impacts. Initiatives such as social safety nets and food stamps can enhance affordability, while repurposing farm subsidies can improve socio-economic sustainability. Comprehensive policy packages that include social safety nets, repurposing agricultural supports, environmental regulation and investment in sustainable production, can lead to substantial GDP growth, poverty reduction, and dietary enhancements. However, each intervention presents distinct trade-offs between economic gains and environmental implications. This analysis underscores the need for a holistic policy approach when trying to achieve multiple sustainability goals. Implementing a blend of policies designed to promote environmental, social, and economic sustainability simultaneously could drive Indonesia towards a sustainable and resilient food system, addressing the complex interplay between economic development, environmental conservation, and improved nutrition.

Quality upgrading in dairy value chains: Mixed methods evidence from southwestern Uganda

Quality upgrading may be lagging in value chains where the assessment and traceability of the quality of the underlying commodity is challenging. In Uganda’s southwestern milk shed, a variety of initiatives are trying to increase the quality of raw milk in dairy value chains. These initiatives generally involve the introduction of technologies that enable measurement of key quality parameters at strategic nodes in the value chain, in conjunction with a system that allows for tracking of these parameters throughout the supply chain. In this paper, we use a combination of focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and quantitative data that is generated by these initiatives to document outputs, describe emerging outcomes, and reflect on the potential impact. We find clear evidence that milk quality improved, but the effects on milk prices are more subtle.

Women’s Empowerment in Agricultural Governance (WEAGov) technical workshop: India pilot study

Gender Equality research initiative Gender Equality (HER+) is a One CGIAR Research Initiative seeking to address the following four dimensions of gender inequality in agrifood systems: o Women’s lack of agency or limited ability to define and act on goals, make decisions that matter to them, and participate in the economy and in public life; o Women’s lack of access to and control over resources; o Social norms that discriminate based on gender; and o Policies and governance that fail to include and benefit women. HER+ uses impactful gender research to address the four dimensions of gender inequality by applying gender-transformative approaches to address harmful norms. It does this by bundling innovations for women’s empowerment, leveraging social protection to increase women’s access to and control over resources, and promoting inclusive governance and policies for increased resilience. HER+ will generate learning and evidence on levers and entry points to disrupt the foundations of inequality in agrifood systems (AFS).

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, June 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi with the goal of providing clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. The reports are intended as a resource for those interested in maize markets in Malawi, namely producers, traders, consumers, policy makers, and other agricultural stakeholders.

Sustained underweight in rural areas and emergence of overweight in urban Ethiopian women: A multivariate analysis of EDHS data 2000–2016

A growing body of evidence indicates the emergence of overweight/obesity in developing countries before the battle against undernutrition has been won. We conducted this study to quantify the reduction of underweight and the emergence of overweight among Ethiopian women from 2000 to 2016 and evaluate factors explaining the progress. We used the four Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys (2000–2016) to analyze body mass index (BMI) trends among women. Data from 43,815 non-pregnant, non-puerperal reproductive-age women was used to evaluate the linear change in BMI and changes in the percentage of overweight and underweight over time. Using multivariate decomposition analysis of change in underweight and overweight percentages, we identified sources of change in BMI in the past 16 years of the survey periods. The BMI of Ethiopian reproductive-age women increased by 0.88 kg/m2 from 2000 to 2016. The increment was pronounced in urban areas with 1.46 kg/m2. There has been a significant reduction in underweight women since 2000 (p-value < 0.001), and 87.62% of the changes were attributed to behavioral changes toward weight management. And there was a significant upswing in overweight women from 2000 to 2016 (p-value < 0.001) as well. A compositional change of factors including region, women’s age, women’s educational status, religion, type of place of residence, and use of contraceptives contributed to 57.51% of the observed increment in the percentage of overweight women. A relatively slow decrease in underweight and an increment in overweight have been observed. This progress can be disaggregated into persistent underweight in the rural and poorest, and swift development of overweight in the urban and richest communities. Targeted nutrition interventions for both underweight and overweight women are mandatory. Nutritional interventions in Ethiopia should focus on behavioral change to reduce hunger and malnutrition as well as to avert the emergence of overweight or obesity in the affected communities.

The effectiveness of cash and cash plus interventions on livelihoods outcomes: Evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis

Cash transfer programs have become increasingly popular tools for fighting chronic poverty and food insecurity in lowand middle-income countries (Fiszbein and Schady, 2009; USAID, 2022; WFP, 2023). Cash transfers offer recipients flexibility by permitting them to finance immediate consumption needs or to increase future income streams through investments and savings. Moreover, these programs are generally feasible to implement and scale across diverse contexts. While studies consistently show cash transfers effectively reduce poverty in the short term, the evidence on their long-term impact is less clear.

Biofortification: Conventional plant breeding to increase the nutrient density of commonly consumed staple foods

Geospatial variation in dietary patterns and their association with heart disease in Bangladeshi population: Evidence from a nationwide survey

Heart disease is a significant public health threat, and its burden is increasing worldwide. Recent evidence suggests that dietary pattern is a key modifiable factor for heart disease. Research regarding dietary patterns and heart disease in Bangladesh with their spatial variability is limited. In this study, the spatial variation and relationship between dietary patterns and heart disease among Bangladeshi people was investigated. The country-representative Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2016 dataset was used, and a total of 77,207 participants aged 30 years and over were included. A principal component analysis was conducted to derive the dietary patterns. Both statistical and spatial analyses were performed. The overall prevalence of heart disease was 3.6%, with a variation of 0.6% to 10.4% across districts of Bangladesh. Three major dietary patterns, named “festival pattern”, “pickles and fast foods pattern”, and “rice and vegetable pattern” were identified, accounting for 25.2% of the total dietary variance. Both the dietary pattern and heart disease rate varied across the region. A higher risk of heart disease was persistent in the western-south, southern, central, and eastern regions, as was greater adherence to the “festival pattern” and “pickles and fast foods pattern.” After adjusting for confounders, participants with the highest adherence to the “rice and vegetable pattern” were associated with a lower likelihood of developing heart disease (AOR: 0.78, 95% CI: 0.64–0.95, p <0.05), while the highest adherence to the "pickles and fast foods pattern" was associated with a higher likelihood of developing heart disease (AOR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.27–1.76, p <0.001). The spatial disparities in the prevalence of heart disease and dietary patterns underscore the significance of prioritizing intervention at the district level, especially in the western-south, southern, central, and eastern regions, to control the rising heart disease trends in Bangladesh.

Climate smart agriculture and food systems that reduce poverty and hunger

Poor communities that rely on functioning food systems for their livelihoods are highly vulnerable to the devastating effects of climate change while agri-food systems are significant emitters of greenhouse gases. This chapter reviews opportunities to scale up innovative technology and practices to transform food systems and to leverage climate action to reduce poverty, hunger and malnutrition in line with the complementary Sustainable Development Goals. Drawing on country experiences – India, Tajikistan, Lao People’s Democratic Republic and Myanmar – with integrated strategies, it looks at how climate strategies such as nationally determined contributions can be aligned with national agricultural and antipoverty strategies; the need for multisector and multistakeholder action and participation; challenges to joint financing for climate action, poverty and hunger goals; and adapting government and donor systems to co-ordinate implementation.

Nature-Positive Solutions initiative baseline evaluation survey report: Kenya

Conventional agriculture, while providing mass-scale production of cheap and plentiful food, has extracted a massive toll on both the environment and humans. On the one hand, industrial agriculture drives 80 percent of deforestation, threatens 86 percent of the 28,000 species currently at risk of extinction (through habitat conversion and pollution), is responsible for significant loss of crop and genetic diversity and up to 37 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE), accelerates land degradation and land-use change, and uses 70 percent of global water resources withdrawn. On the other hand, it has reduced nutrition outcomes for families and farming incomes due to impoverished soil and water health, reduced crop resistance to pests and diseases, and poor waste management. This unsustainable food production toll is further exacerbated by misaligned public policies and economic incentives. There is an urgent need to shift to more resilient farming systems capable of supporting smallholder farmers and ensuring that agriculture is a net positive contributor to nature. In 2021 the United Nations Food Systems Summit formally recognized nature-positive production as one of five critical pathways to sustainable food systems (Von Braun et al. 2023).

Nature-Positive Solutions initiative baseline evaluation survey report: Vietnam

The report’s main objective is to describe socio-economic conditions and agricultural systems in the survey areas. It provides a baseline assessment characterizing the main agricultural and socioeconomic challenges within the surveyed localities, and to inform the array of research interventions currently underway. Furthermore, the study will provide a baseline for estimating the impacts of NATURE+ (including waste management, water management, development or a resilient seed system, development of value chains for neglected and underutilized species, participatory varietal selection, encouragement of designs for increasing agrobiodiversity, etc.) on inclusion, poverty reduction, as well as on food security, livelihoods, and jobs. The report is structured as follows: Section 2 presents detailed information on the survey design, its coverage and implementation. Sections 3 and 4 discuss the main analytical results of the report, separately for the household and the workers survey, respectively. Finally, section 5 concludes.

Foresight for food markets: Developing and implementing market forecasting methods/models

The “Foresight for Food Markets: Developing and Implementing Market Forecasting Methods/Models with Hands-on Training at the FPMU” is an element of Integrated Food Policy Research Program (IFPRP). Originally signed in 2016 between the Government of Bangladesh (GoB) and the Joint Venture (JV) comprising the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the Bangladesh Institute of the Development Studies (BIDS), and the University of Illinois, IFPRP was extended and modified in subsequent periods. The most recent updated contract between the GoB and the JV was signed in mid-2022. Deliverable 4.3, Foresight for Food Markets: Developing and Implementing Market Forecasting Methods/Models with Hands-on Training at the FPMU is one of the new deliverables included in the updated contract. Rising prices of essential commodities affect consumer welfare and pose a serious challenge to the Government of Bangladesh. Knowing prices of essentials in advance would allow the government to take necessary measures to restrain the extent of price increases or to mitigate effects of rising prices; such measures could include provisions of direct distributions of rice and wheat through social safety net programs or of subsidized open market sales on the one hand and engaging in direct imports of essentials or easing import restrictions for the private sector, on the other. Because price fluctuations are a feature of a free market, there is a persistent need for the government to be able to project consumer prices in advance. Accordingly, it is important that in addition to receiving estimates prepared by external experts, the government has the ability to obtain its own price projections; the government should have the estimates when it needs them and for commodities for which such information is needed. Against this backdrop, IFPRP is providing hands-on training on price projection techniques to officials from the Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU), the Directorate General of Food (DG Food), and the Ministry of Food (MoFood). It is envisioned that trained officials from the DG Food, the Ministry of Food, and mostly from the FPMU will produce price projection estimates on their own with IFPRP personnel helping a consultative capacity.

Implementation of paddy drying technology: Introducing small/medium paddy dryers in remote areas

Grain drying has become increasingly challenging for the Bangladesh food system as postharvest innovations have not kept pace with production growth and an increasing volume of grain is harvested during wet or foggy periods, when conventional open-air drying is problematic. This activity sought to build capacity for mechanical dryer service provision by small-scale entrepreneurs and to demonstrate a model for providing mobile grain drying services through entrepreneurs using a locally manufactured small-scale dryer. In coordination with Ministry of Food officials, the project selected 20 farmers to train as mechanized drying service providers, provided them with use of small-scale mobile batch dryers, and deployed them in rural areas from which Local Supply Depots (LSDs) source grain. The service providers were active in Bogura and Rangpur Districts in late May 2023, during the closing phases of the Boro harvest season. The pilot revealed nuances of the costs of operation and indicated potential for viable business activities, especially in areas where open-air drying is relatively costly or inadequately available. Additionally, a scoping visit to Naogaon District revealed significant interest in mechanized drying services. The findings suggest a value to additional observation of the service providers to document capacity utilization over an Aman season and a full Boro season. Such observations would allow confirmation about parameters related to annual capacity utilization which are important determinants of business viability

Feasibility of nationwide warehouse receipt system: An assessment of the potential for a nationwide warehouse receipt system and recommendation for the requisite legal and regulatory framework

Warehouse receipts systems (WRS) have been used to tackle multiple challenges faced by farmers. In the absence of adequate collateral and consequent credit constraints, a WRS enables the use of inventory as collateral for loans, thus removing a key constraint farmers face. With growing digital reach, electronic based Negotiable Warehouse Receipts (e-NWR) that can be swapped, exchanged and traded and can assist in deepening financial markets while maintaining the integrity of the system. While e-NWRS can potentially address farmer level constraints, they can also be viewed from a larger policy perspective as a system that aids government plans for food security and manage public procurement operations better and more nimbly; it can also play a key role for enhancing the efficiency and food quality and safety along value chains by enabling mid-stream players like traders and importers to manage these chains better. This report seeks to inform the policy process around e-NWRS by focusing on the potential of Ware house Receipt Financing, more broadly, in the agricultural development of Bangladesh. To do this we review global evidence as well as evidence closer to home, within South Asia, to understand the pre-conditions and prerequisites for a successful system.

Diagnostic study of DG Food: An assessment of DG Food’s current mandates, performance, and capacity gaps, and a remedial program to strengthen the agency

This study conducts an assessment of the current mandates, performance, and capacity gaps of the Directorate General of Food (DG Food) and suggests remedies to strengthen the agency. Formed originally as the Supply Department in undivided Bengal under British rule in the early 1940s, the organization was named the Directorate General of Food by the provincial government of East Pakistan in 1956. Upon the independence of Bangladesh in 1971, DG Food became a part of the Ministry of Food and Civil Supplies and was later renamed as the Directorate General of Food in 1975. The last major reorganization of the agency took place in 1984. The current mandates and organogram are from 1984. As the custodian of the Public Food Distribution System (PFDS), DG Food plays an important role for the Government of Bangladesh (GoB). Under the Social Safety Net Programs (SSNP) of the GoB, DG Food ensures food security for vulnerable populations. In its sprawling countrywide network of 650-plus traditional warehouses, DG Food has an effective storage capacity of 1.9 million tons. In recent years, DG Food has procured and distributed approximately 3.0 million tons of foodgrains per year. A very large organization, DG Food has a sanctioned workforce of over 13,000 officers and employees, and an annual budget of approximately 1.5 billion U.S. dollars.

Introduction and executive summary for the supplement micronutrients in Latin America: Current state and research

Global health and nutrition stakeholders are facing a period full of changes and challenges, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Almost every country is experiencing at least, one burden of malnutrition,1 and among them many are facing the triple burden of malnutrition, both associated with unhealthy and nondiverse diets and reduced physical activity. According to the State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World Report, in 2022, between 691 and 783 million people faced chronic hunger, representing an increase of 122 million people compared to 2019. It also informed that 3.1 billion people could not afford a healthy diet.2 On the one hand, economic shocks, war, violence, and climate-related disruptions are the leading causes of the current steep increase in the global burden of hunger in all its forms. The COVID-19 pandemic and other repeated pandemic shocks further reduce food and nutrition security of poor countries.3 On the other hand, chronic noncommunicable diseases, most of which are associated with overweight-obesity and unhealthy behavioral and environmental risk factors, continue to rise as the principal causes of death and disability worldwide, also disproportionately impacting LMIC.4 While the prevalence of hunger in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is lower than the global average, food insecurity affects a higher proportion of the population in the region (40%) relative to the global prevalence (29.3%). The region also experiences the highest cost of a healthy diet, with 131 million people unable to afford to meet the recommended nutritional requirements that healthy diets would provide.5-7 Consequently, the risks of nutrient deficiency and excess for the region can be inferred, but the scarcity of current nationally representative data on micronutrient deficiencies is neither useful for program planning or evaluation nor conducive to narrowing the equity and justice gaps in the region.

Private investments in modern food storage: An economic feasibility analysis for private investments in modern food storage and potential public sector roles in promoting such investments

Unprecedented growth in rice production in Bangladesh over the last four decades has outpaced the capacity of post-harvest operations, resulting in substantial grain losses. While production technology has changed dramatically over time, there has been relatively little private investment in transforming storage capacity in the country. This paper explores the lack of widespread private investment in improved grain storage and examines the potential for public support to stimulate greater private sector investment in modern storage. We calculate the returns to investment in bulk grain silos and hermetic cocoons that could upgrade warehouse storage, and calculate the grain loss that conversion to those technologies would prevent. We then assess the public support that would be required to trigger private investment in modern storage systems. Our analysis shows that storage in jute bags in warehouses or homes outperforms the modern technologies in terms of financial returns at observed prices. Our analysis further shows that given the observed price changes during the harvest and post-harvest periods from 2008 to 2018, cocoon and silo storage as well as conventional warehouse storage were unprofitable in most years and on average overall. Although seasonal variation in market prices for paddy is sometimes pronounced, the pattern of the variation is not sufficiently large or consistent to make paddy storage reliably profitable. Conventional warehouse storage implied an average loss of BDT 2,877/MT/season over the 20 seasons considered. Use of modern storage methods would have implied average losses of BDT 3,200/MT/season to BDT 4,950/MT/season, depending on technology used. These results imply that a public sector co-investment on the order of BDT 300/MT would be required to trigger a shift from conventional to modern storage by traders or millers. This shift would imply a reduction in grain loss of 30kg to 80kg per MT stored for a public cost of BDT 3.75 to BDT 10.00 per kilogram of loss avoided. To make it profitable for intermediaries to provide commercial storage services to farmers who currently store on-farm would require a much larger co-investment of about BDT 3,200/MT stored, implying BDT 40 to BDT 106 per kilogram of loss avoided. Removal of import tariffs on storage technologies or realization of a price premium for silo-stored or hermetically stored grain could be sufficient to encourage millers to adopt modern storage, but would be inadequate to trigger increased off-farm storage as an independent activity. There is anecdotal evidence of a price premium for paddy that has been stored using improved technology. Existence of such a premium could significantly reduce public support needed to trigger private investment in improved storage.

Effectiveness of current and alternative procurement modalities: An evaluation of the effectiveness of current and potential alternative grain procurement modalities, and development of a framework for stock turnover

This report has been prepared as one of the deliverables of the Bangladesh Integrated Food Policy Research Program (BIFPRP) implemented by the Ministry of Food, Government of Bangladesh under a World Investment for Modernizing Food Storages Facilities in the country. The key arguments and recommendations drawn up for the report are based on both quantitative and qualitative data. Food and agricultural policies have historically played a crucial role in triggering growth in many developing countries. While there were debates, public procurement and distribution of food are widely accepted as a “second best” solutions for countries characterized by markets and institutional failures. However, Bangladesh has done remarkably well in adjusting to changing realities and the country is now widely recognized for its agricultural policy reforms. But there is still room for further improvement and efficiency gains for which two broad sets of recommendation can be considered: 1) Pricing and procurement targets – Pricing in Bangladesh continues to be based on the average cost of production but with the application of satellite imageries, app-based small area estimation, the procurement price estimates can be improved substantially. Also, the current procurement target determination formula misses out on some key aspects of production, marketing, and macroeconomic parameters. The quota for each upazila is based on total production and milling capacities but it also needs to consider the net surplus to calculate how much could be procured in each Upazilas. 2) Alternative procurement modalities a) The report recommends changing this modality to Delivered to Destination Warehouse (DDW) through the open tendering method and undertaking pilots and learning from experiences to enhance efficiency can be important. b) Linking smallholders to markets through product aggregation has received renewed attention globally. Available data suggests that Bangladesh’s public procurement has thus far not managed to effectively integrate small farmers to its procurement system. To scale up nationally, we believe that more innovation in technology and a new institutional set up will be necessary. c) Implementing Delivered Duty Paid Modality on a pilot basis where the seller assumes all responsibilities and costs for delivering the goods to the named place of destination. d) Piloting Deficiency Payment Method as an effective method to provide both income and price to farmers of a wide range of agricultural commodities. Two key instruments of implementing this method would be Marketing Assistance Loan (MAL) and the Loan Deficiency Payment (LDP), which are tools available to the farmers. A recent report by the NITI Aayog of India also makes a strong case for this procurement modality and we also argue in favor of undertaking this pilot.

Gender disparities in food shopping patterns: Evidence from rural Bangladesh, India, and Nepal

Objectives: Understanding gender differences in food acquisition and decision-making is needed to inform policies promoting healthy diets for all. We compare food acquisition patterns and preferences of men and women in three South Asian countries. Methods: In 2023, 4,000 rural households with adolescents were randomly selected with a proportional probability per village in five districts: Rajshahi and Rangpur in Bangladesh, Nalanda in India, and Banke and Surkhet in Nepal. Adults primarily responsible for household food purchases were asked where, why, and how they acquired frequently consumed foods. Foods were categorized as healthy or unhealthy. Analyses compared shoppers’ responses by country, district, and gender. Results: Food shoppers (n=2,555) were primarily men in India and Bangladesh, women in Nepal, and averaged 41 years of age. Food purchases were mostly from retail outlets in India and Nepal, and wholesale open-air markets in Bangladesh. Shoppers’ preferred purchasing source was primarily based on cost and distance. On average, shoppers traveled 2.9 km to purchase food, women 0.9 km further than men. Unhealthy foods were purchased more than healthy foods (2.6 vs 1.3 times/mo), with biscuits most often (3.8 times/mo). Nepal had 66% lower food purchase frequency than Bangladesh. Purchases varied by gender and country: healthy and unhealthy foods were purchased more by men in Bangladesh and women in India. In Nepal, men purchased more healthy foods than women, and women purchased more unhealthy foods than men. In India and Nepal, shoppers found unhealthy foods as more accessible and affordable than healthy foods; in Bangladesh, shoppers found healthy foods more accessible and affordable. Perceptions varied by gender and country: men found healthy and unhealthy foods more accessible and affordable than women in Bangladesh and Nepal, in India, such perceptions were predominant among women. With more income, men and women would purchase more animal-sourced foods and produce and fewer unhealthy foods. Women would purchase more legumes and grains than men. Conclusions: In rural South Asia, women perceived healthy foods as less affordable and accessible and purchased unhealthy foods more frequently than men. Policies and programs are needed to improve healthy food access, lower costs, and promote gender equity in food acquisition.

An assessment of dietary patterns and micronutrient intake among farming adults in Rural Sri Lanka

Objectives: The study aimed to characterize food group intake and estimate usual nutrient intakes among Sri Lankan farmers. Methods: A baseline study (Dec 2020-Feb 2021), conducted as part of WFP’s Resilience, Risk Reduction, Recovery, Reconstruction, and Nutrition (R5N) program evaluation, collected data from adults in 45 rural villages across Sri Lanka (N=1283). Dietary intake was assessed using telephone-based 24-hour recalls, with repeat recalls from 60% of respondents (n=769). Reported foods were converted to nutrient intakes using standard recipes and Sri Lankan food composition data. Descriptive statistics were used to calculate average intake of food groups and the relative contribution of food groups to total energy. The National Cancer Institute method was used to estimate mean usual intakes of energy, macro-, and micronutrients, and to calculate the prevalence of adequate intake (PAI) of micronutrients relative to requirements. Results: Grains (primarily rice) and coconut milk provided 56% and 12% of total energy, respectively. Rice (red and white varieties, refined and parboiled), mango, green leafy vegetables, chilies, and fish were the primary sources of micronutrients. Participants reported 118±117 g vegetables and 71±243 g fruit per day (2.4±3.5 servings combined). High consumption of rice contributed to high PAI of riboflavin and thiamine ( >60%). PAI was < 25% for iron, calcium, zinc, niacin, and vitamins C and B12, reflecting low consumption of animal-source foods (ASF; 80 g/day), whole grains, and certain F&V (e.g., citrus fruits). Conclusions: We observed high consumption of rice and coconut milk, and low levels of micronutrient adequacy. Increasing consumption of ASF and F&V is needed to close micronutrient gaps. Staple food fortification may be required to effectively increase the PAI of calcium, iron, zinc, and vitamin B12. Additional research is recommended to understand and address the barriers to low consumption of micronutrient-rich foods.

Innovation process tracing assessment: Methodological approach and guiding principles

The “Rethinking Food Markets and Value Chains for Inclusion and Sustainability” Initiative aims to provide evidence on what types of bundled innovations, incentive structures, and policies are most effective for creating more equitable sharing of income and employment opportunities in growing food markets while reducing the food sector’s environmental footprint. The Initiative targets approximately 30,000 individuals across six geographical areas, focusing on four key innovation areas: vertical coordination models, product quality certification, digital logistics, and finance innovations, along with global knowledge assessment. The approach to evaluating the initiative’s impact is based on a combination of theory-based methodologies, explicitly focusing on Process Tracing (PT) for the impact evaluation phase. The evaluation is designed to reflect on the success and learnings of the initiative while strengthening CGIAR’s practice of theory-based methods such as PT and integrating innovative techniques like “causal hotspots” and Outcome Harvesting for more nuanced analysis. At its core, this evaluation prioritizes and focuses on detailed case studies of selected innovation bundles. This distinctive feature allows for an in-depth analysis of significant outcomes within the initiative. The selection process is guided by the “causal hotspot” strategy for Contribution Analysis (CA) combined with Outcome Harvesting (OH), which helps identify key areas of impact prior to the PT application. The PT methodology is then rigorously applied to examine the plausibility of each innovation’s contributions and the strength of supporting evidence. This provides valuable insights to scaling efforts and evidence-based decision-making.

Uganda coffee agronomy training: Impact evaluation report

This report describes the methods and findings of a randomized controlled trial evaluating the impact of coffee agronomy training and phone-based advisory services on farmer practices and observed coffee yield. In-person training was provided in randomly selected villages over the course of two years by Hanns R. Neuman Stiftung (HRNS) and TechnoServe in two separate regions of Western Uganda encompassing six districts. Messages reinforcing this training were sent to a subset of farmers in villages where training was offered by Precision Development (PxD), and standalone messages were sent to a subset of farmers in villages where no training was offered. The program period spanned the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns, which significantly affected how training could be delivered and likely reduced its impact.

Involving influential men’s groups to promote maternal and child nutrition practices increased diet diversity and egg consumption despite rising insecurity in the Sahel

Objectives: A two-arm cluster randomized trial was designed to compare 2 approaches of behavior change communication for improved nutrition and women’s empowerment practices. Both intervention arms received monthly training sessions using village saving and loans associations (VSLA) as main delivery platform, while in one arm, influential men’s groups (called EBENE) were also trained to promote improved nutrition and women’s empowerment practices. Methods: Data were collected after one year of implementation in June and August 2023 through phone surveys in a composite sample of women pre-identified before the intervention including members of VSLA, women interested in VSLA and women of the general population. Mixed-effects regression models using fixed effects for treatment exposure and random effects at cluster level, were used to assess differential effects of the interventions on program participation, and knowledge and practices related to diets and women’s empowerment. Adjusted models estimated the effects of insecurity and of the EBENE intervention in the context of insecurity, adjusting for baseline characteristics associated to insecurity prior to its onset, to account for its non-random nature. Results: Unadjusted analyses found participation rates of 44% and 38% for training on nutrition and gender respectively, with no significant differences between intervention groups. The EBENE intervention was found to increase the likelihood that women felt encouraged by men to improve dietary practices and that women and children consumed poultry and eggs. Adjusted analyses suggested that though insecurity had a negative effect on program participation and diet diversity, the EBENE intervention had a protective effect on diet diversity in areas with higher insecurity. The EBENE intervention was found to have protective effects on women’s mobility, group membership and participation in decisions related to poultry production. Conclusions: In the context of increasing insecurity, nutrition and women’s empowerment behavior change promoted through VSLA platforms can be boosted by engaging influential men’s to promote improved practices. Further research is needed to better understand the costs and mechanisms involved.

Strengthening delivery platforms of national nutrition programs in subnational geographies in India improved coverage of interventions and child growth

Objectives: Between 2016 and 2020, novel system strengthening mechanisms were implemented in 63.9% (N=409) of India’s districts by the government in collaboration with multiple partners to enhance the delivery of essential nutrition interventions for women and children during the critical first 1,000 days. We evaluated the influence of these mechanisms on the coverage of interventions and child growth outcomes.

Synopsis: Assessing agricultural extension agent digital readiness in Rwanda

The fourth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA IV) of the Government of Rwanda emphasizes extension and advisory services (EAS) as a priority area (MINAGRI 2018). In support of PSTA IV, the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI) began enhancing extension and advisory services by introducing a Customized Agriculture Extension System (CAES) (MINAGRI 2020). The CAES calls for ICT-supported extension services, stating that “ICT can revolutionize agriculture in Rwanda” (MINAGRI 2020: 34). Despite an enabling policy environment and Rwanda’s embracing of the ICT revolution, extension services have not taken advantage of the potential of ICTs (MINAGRI 2020). This paper looks at capacities of agricultural extension staff and the readiness of Rwandan public and private extension staff to use ICTs in their work—to be digitally equipped. A phone survey of 500 agricultural extension agents (EAs) was conducted in February and March 2021 across all districts of Rwanda among EAs in the public, private, and nonprofit sectors in Rwanda. We examine their demographics, education, and work backgrounds. To assess the ‘digital readiness’ of EAs, we assess the impacts of various factors on an EA’s digital experience and their attitudes toward digital modernization.

Understanding patterns of receipt and consumption of IFA supplements during pregnancy: Empirical considerations for measuring coverage

Objectives: Daily iron-folic acid (IFA) supplementation during pregnancy is a core intervention in low- and middle-income countries. Yet, there is a concern of poor validity and biased population coverage estimates using maternal reports of total number of IFA supplements. This study examined patterns of IFA receipt and consumption among pregnant women in India and identified considerations for measuring coverage of IFA supplementation.

Preconception micronutrient supplementation positively affects offspring cognition at 10–11 years of age: A randomized controlled trial in Vietnam

Objectives: The importance of maternal periconceptional nutrition for offspring health and development has received increased attention recently, yet very few intervention studies have evaluated the long-term effects on offspring growth and cognitive outcomes. We evaluated the impact of preconception weekly multiple micronutrients (MM) or iron and folic acid (IFA) supplementation compared to folic acid (FA) alone on offspring body composition and cognitive function during the school-age years and early adolescence.

The relationship between preterm and small for gestational age on child cognition during school-age years

Objectives: Children born preterm and/or small for gestational age (SGA) have a high susceptibility to neurological impairments that may affect cognitive and learning outcomes during school age and beyond. Yet, limited evidence exists for these high-risk birth phenotypes in low and middle-income countries where most occur with different etiology and socio-biology. This paper examined the deficits in cognitive function and academic achievement during the school age years in children born preterm or SGA compared to term adequate for gestational age (AGA) in rural Vietnam.

Enhanced quality of nutrition services during antenatal care through interventions to improve maternal nutrition in Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, and India

Objectives: Quality antenatal care (ANC) services are critical for maternal health and nutrition. Information on quality of nutrition interventions during ANC is scarce in low-and middle-income countries. Our study examined the effects of intensified maternal nutrition interventions during ANC on service readiness, provision of care, and client’s experience of care in Bangladesh (BD), Burkina Faso (BF), Ethiopia (ET), and India (IN). We also examined inter-relationships between the dimensions of ANC quality.

Addressing parent-adolescent roles and interactions to improve adolescents’ diets in Ethiopia

Objectives: Adolescence is a critical period of development and habit formation including healthy dietary practices. Nutrition education interventions were implemented in government primary schools in rural Ethiopia. This study examined (1) the impact of interventions on nutrition knowledge, parent-adolescent interactions, and parental food control; and (2) the relationships among knowledge, interaction, and food control on adolescents’ diets. Methods: We used endline survey data from a cluster-randomized program evaluation, among adolescent girls aged 10-14 years (N=536) enrolled across 54 primary schools. Interventions included specialized school-based nutrition education activities, and the control received standard school curriculum. Descriptive statistics were used to assess the differences between program groups. Multivariable regression analysis was used to assess factors associated with diets (dietary diversity, meal frequency, and junk food consumption), adjusting for covariates at adolescent, parental and household levels and school clustering. Structural equation models were used to assess the relationships among the intervention, knowledge, interactions, and food control on diets. Results: Adolescents in intervention schools, compared to control schools, had higher nutrition knowledge (mean score: 10.7 vs. 8.1, range 0-13), higher interactions with their parents (score: 8.6 vs. 8.1, range 0-10), and higher parental food control (score: 7.6 vs. 6.5, range 0-10). Higher parent-adolescent interaction (β=0.23-0.46), parents’ nutrition knowledge (β=0.28-0.73), and parental food control (β=0.23-0.41) were associated with higher dietary diversity and meal frequency. Higher parents’ education level was associated with lower junk food consumption among adolescents (OR=0.55). Interventions had largest direct effects on nutrition knowledge and parental food control and directly on adolescents’ dietary diversity and meal frequency. Exposure to food advertisements was mainly associated with junk food consumption. Conclusions: Parental roles and interactions between parents and adolescents, along with the food environment, need to be addressed to improve adolescents’ diets.

Revisiting the demand and profitability of chemical fertilizers amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia

We revisit the state of smallholder fertilizer demand and profitability in Ethiopia in the face of the recent global fuel–food–fertilizer price crisis triggered by the Russian–Ukraine war and compounded by other domestic supply shocks. We first examine farmers’ response to changes in both fertilizer and food prices by estimating price elasticity of demand. We then revisit the profitability of fertilizer by computing average value–cost ratios (AVCRs) associated with fertilizer application before and after these crises. We use three-round detailed longitudinal household survey data, covering both pre-crisis (2016 and 2019) and post-crisis (2023) production periods, focusing on three main staple crops in Ethiopia (maize, teff, and wheat). Our analysis shows that fertilizer adoption, use, and yield levels were increasing until the recent crises, but these trends seem halted by these crises. We also find relatively large fertilizer price elasticity of demand estimates, ranging between 0.4 and 1.1, which vary across crops and are substantially larger than previous estimates. We find suggestive evidence that households with smaller farm sizes are relatively more responsive to changes in fertilizer prices. We also document that farmers’ response to increases in staple crop prices is not as strong as perceived and hence appears to be statistically insignificant. Finally, we show important dynamics in the profitability of chemical fertilizer. While the AVCRs show profitable trends for most crops, the share of farmers with profitable AVCRs declined following the fertilizer price surge. Our findings offer important insights for policy focusing on mitigating the adverse effects of fertilizer price shocks.

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model documentation for version 3.6

The International Food Policy Research Institute’s IMPACT model is a robust tool for analyzing global and regional challenges in food, agriculture, and natural resources. Continuously updated and refined, IMPACT version 3.6 is the latest update to the model for continuously improving the treatment of complex issues, including climate change, food security, and economic development. IMPACT 3.6 multimarket model integrates climate, crop simulation, and water models into a comprehensive system, providing decision-makers with a flexible platform to assess the potential impacts of various scenarios on biophysical systems, socioeconomic trends, technologies, and policies.

Introducing the BMC Series SDG Editorial Board Members: Taddese Zerfu

Taddese Zerfu is a research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), focusing on the nexus between agriculture, nutrition, and health. His research examines the impact of livestock farming and animal-source foods on maternal and child nutrition in low- and middle-income countries. Previously, Taddese worked as a clinician, researcher, and academic in Ethiopia, Kenya, South Africa, and the UK. He holds a PhD in Food Science and Nutrition from Addis Ababa University and a Master’s in Public Health from Jimma University. He completed postdoctoral fellowships at Tufts University and the African Population and Health Research Center. His work has earned several awards, including the Tore Godal Medal and the African Doctoral Dissertation Research Fellowship. He belongs to the Editorial Board of BMC Public Health. This blog post and interview delve into my endeavors concerning the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), shedding light on the challenges encountered during my research journey.

Synopsis: Enhancing smallholder farmers’ profitability through increased crop commercialization in Rwanda

This study analyzes the costs, returns, and profitability of smallholder agriculture in Rwanda using a gross margin approach (definitions are provided below) and reveals that over 80 percent of farmers generate positive gross economic margins. However, only around 40 percent achieve positive gross marketing margins from crop sales. This difference is directly attributable to the fact that two-thirds of production is directly consumed by households. The analysis further identifies that farm households allocate about 80 percent of their total crop input expenditures to fertilizer, seed, and hired labor, while the remaining expenses associated with fixed production costs that are almost exclusively related to land rental costs. Furthermore, per hectare analysis reveals decreasing returns to scale for land size, disputing the notion that larger areas lead to efficiency gains. Instead, for example, smaller commercial farmers of less than 0.1 hectare, comprising 5.5 percent of our sample, sell over 50 percent of their crop value. Despite existing trends, this indicates that commercialization can take place on any size land holdings for relative income gains. Additionally, the study highlights the impact of factors like labor decisions and crop choice can significantly influence economic outcomes. The findings suggest that smallholder farming remains economically viable in Rwanda, though market participation is somewhat limited. With appropriate support and risk mitigation, farmers of all land sizes can commercialize production, boost incomes, and enhance household welfare by reorienting towards higher-value market crops.

The effectiveness of cash and cash plus interventions on livelihoods outcomes: Evidence from a systematic review and meta-analysis

Over the last 20 years, a burgeoning scholarly literature has analyzed the effects of cash transfer and cash plus interventions in a wide range of contexts and using a range of empirical designs. We conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the pooled effect of any cash or cash plus intervention on livelihoods-related outcomes (consumption, income and labor supply), ultimately compiling 305 different treatment estimates from 155 treatment arms in 104 studies (and in 43 countries). Using random effects and multilevel models, our findings suggest that cash transfer programming is associated with an increase of between $1 and $2 in monthly household consumption and income per $100 in cumulative transfers, an effect that persists for a period of roughly three years (inclusive of the period of program implementation); this effect is meaningfully larger (as much as $4 larger) for cash transfer programs that also include a cash plus livelihoods intervention. There are no significant effects observed on labor force participation. We also present a range of estimates capturing the longer-term (cumulative) effects of cash transfers on consumption under alternate assumptions.

Understanding differential reductions in undernutrition among districts in Rwanda through the perspectives of mid‐level and community actors on policy commitment and policy coherence

Understanding the drivers of improvements in child undernutrition at only the national level can mask subnational differences. This paper aimed to understand the contributions of factors in the enabling environment to observed differences in stunting reduction between districts in Rwanda. In 2017, we conducted 58 semi-structured interviews with mid-level actors (n = 38) and frontline workers (n = 20) implementing Rwanda’s multi-sectoral nutrition policy in five districts in which stunting decreased (reduced districts) and five where it increased or stagnated (non-reduced districts) based on Rwanda’s 2010 and 2014/15 Demographic and Health Surveys. Mid-level actors are government officials and service providers at the subnational level who represent the frontline of government policy. Interviews focused on political commitment to and policy coherence in nutrition, and contributors to nutrition changes. Responses were coded to capture themes on the changes and challenges of these topics and compared between reduced and non-reduced districts. Descriptive statistics described district characteristics. Political commitment to nutrition was high in both reduced and non-reduced districts. Respondents from reduced districts were more likely to define commitment to nutrition as an optimal implementation of policy, whereas those from non-reduced districts focused more on financial commitment. Regarding coherence, respondents from reduced compared to non-reduced districts were more likely to report the optimal implementation of multi-sectoral nutrition planning meetings, using data to assess plans and progress in nutrition outcomes and integration of nutrition into the agriculture sector. In contrast, respondents from non-reduced districts more often reported challenges in their relationships with national-level stakeholders and nutrition and/or monitoring and evaluation capacities. Enhancing the integration of nutrition in different sectors and improving mid-level actors’ capacity to plan and advocate for nutrition programming may contribute to reductions in stunting.

A multi-sectoral community development intervention has a positive impact on diet quality and growth in school-age children in rural Nepal

Poor diet quality (diet diversity and animal-source food [ASF] consumption) during childhood negatively affects growth, development, behaviour and physiologic function in later life. Relatively less is known about the impact of poor diet on the growth of school-age children compared to children <5 years of age, especially in low/middle-income countries. A better understanding of delivery strategies for effective interventions to improve diet and hence growth in school-age children is needed. A 36-month longitudinal controlled impact evaluation in rural Nepal assessed the nutrition and growth of children <5 years of age in families assigned via community clusters to full package intervention (community development, training in nutrition [during pregnancy and for children <5 years] and livestock husbandry), partial package (training only) or control (no inputs). Concurrent data were collected prospectively (baseline plus additional four rounds) on school-age children (5–8 years at baseline) in these households; the present study analysed findings in the cohort of school-age children seen at all five study visits (n = 341). Diet quality improved more in the full package school-age children compared to those in partial package or control households. full package children consumed more ASF (β +0.40 [CI 0.07,0.73], p < 0.05), more diverse diets (β +0.93 [CI 0.55,1.31], p < 0.001) and had better head circumference z-scores (β +0.21 [CI 0.07,0.35], p < 0.01) than control children. In conclusion, a multi-sectoral community development intervention was associated with improvements in diet and growth of school-age children in rural Nepal even though the intervention focused on the diet of children <5 years of age. The diet and growth of school-age children can be favourably influenced by community-level interventions, even indirectly.

Effects of a large-scale alcohol ban on population-level alcohol intake, weight, blood pressure, blood glucose, and domestic violence in India: A quasi-experimental population-based study

Background Globally, alcohol consumption is a leading risk factor for deaths and disability and a causal factor in over 200 diseases, injuries, and health conditions. In April 2016, the manufacture, transport, sale, and consumption of alcohol was banned in Bihar, a populous Indian state. We sought to estimate the impacts of this ban on health outcomes and domestic violence. Methods Data from the Indian National Family Health Surveys (2005–06, 2015–16, 2019–21), Annual Health Survey (2013), and District Level Household Survey (2012), were used to conduct difference-in-differences (DID) analysis, comparing Bihar (n = 10,733 men, n = 88,188 women) and neighbouring states (n = 38,674 men, n = 284,820 women) before and after the ban. Outcomes included frequent (daily or weekly) alcohol consumption, underweight, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and intimate partner violence. A triple difference model adding male–female interaction to the DID model was also estimated. Attributable averted cases were calculated to estimate the impact of the ban. Findings Across all models, the ban led to reduced frequent alcohol consumption (DID: −7.1 percentage points (pp) (95% CI −9.6pp, −4.6pp), lower overweight/obesity (−5.6pp (−8.9, −2.2) among males, and reduced experiences of emotional (−4.8pp (−8.2pp, −1.4pp) and sexual (−5.5pp (−8.7pp, −2.3pp) violence among females. The ban prevented approximately 2.4 million cases of daily/weekly alcohol consumption and 1.8 million cases of overweight/obesity among males, and 2.1 million cases of intimate partner violence among females. Interpretation Strict alcohol regulation policies may yield significant population level health benefits for frequent drinkers and many victims of intimate partner violence.

Civil conflict, cash transfers, and child nutrition in Yemen

Can Growth Monitoring and Promotion (GMP) improve child growth and development? A critical review of the epidemiological foundations

Objectives: GMP programs have been globally implemented for many decades, but the epidemiological foundations of GMP have never been reviewed. We evaluated whether commonly used GMP criteria can be used for diagnosis or screening, i.e., if they accurately identify current or predict subsequent inadequate growth or development in individual children. Methods: We conducted a critical review of the literature and analyzed growth patterns in well-nourished children. We estimated the predictive accuracy of commonly used GMP criteria by regressing growth status and developmental scores at 18 and 24 months on these criteria during infancy, using longitudinal data from high-, middle-, and low-income countries. The root mean square error (RMSE), sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) were used as measures of predictive accuracy. Results: Healthy children follow highly variable growth trajectories which challenges the notion that growth information alone can be used to distinguish between current or subsequent healthy or inadequate growth in individual children. The most used GMP criteria (low weight-for-age Z-score, inadequate weight gain) do not provide a clear diagnosis because they cannot distinguish between being too thin or too short. GMP criteria are also not meaningful for screening individual children because they do not accurately predict (low Se, low Sp, and high RMSE) inadequate growth later in childhood. The same holds for growth indices which do not accurately identify individual children at risk of concurrent or later suboptimal development. Conclusions: GMP, as currently designed, does not have the epidemiological basis needed to justify its widescale implementation. Our results do not challenge the need to support parents of young children, but research is needed to identify how regular meetings with parents can be optimized to improve the nutrition, health, and development of their young children in LMICs.

Utilization of Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) and its linkages with undernutrition in India

The Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) programme has been the central focus of the POSHAN Abhiyaan to combat maternal and child malnutrition under the national nutrition mission in India. This paper examined the linkages between utilization of ICDS and underweight among children aged 6-59 months. The study utilized data from two recent rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4 [2015-2016] and NFHS-5 [2019-2021]). Descriptive analyses were used to assess the change in utilization of ICDS and the prevalence of underweight at the national and state levels. Multivariable logistic regressions were performed to examine factors associated with the utilization of ICDS and underweight. Linkages between utilization of ICDS and underweight were examined using the difference-in-differences (DID) approach. Utilization of ICDS increased from 58% in 2015-2016 to 71% in 2019-2021. The prevalence of underweight decreased from 37% to 32% in the same period. Changes in ICDS utilization and underweight prevalence varied considerably across states, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Results from decomposition of DID models suggest that improvements in ICDS explained 9%-12% of the observed reduction in underweight children between 2016 and 2021, suggesting that ICDS made a modest but meaningful contribution in addressing undernutrition among children aged 6-59 months in this period.

Predictors of prediabetes/diabetes and hypertension in Ethiopia: Reanalysis of the 2015 NCD STEPS survey using causal path diagrams

The objective of our study was to reanalyse the Ethiopia STEPwise approach to Surveillance Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factors survey (NCD STEPS), using causal path diagrams constructed using expert subject matter knowledge in conjunction with graphical model theory to map the underlying causal network of modifiable factors associated with prediabetes/diabetes and hypertension. We used data from the 2015 Ethiopia NCD STEPS representative cross-sectional survey (males; n = 3977 and females; n = 5823 aged 15–69 years) and performed directed acyclic graph-informed logistic regression analyses. In both sexes, a 1-unit higher in body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) were positively associated with prediabetes/diabetes (BMI: males: adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.07 [95% confidence interval: 1.0, 1.1], females aOR: 1.03 [1.0, 1.1]; WC: males: aOR: 1.1 [0.9, 1.2], females: aOR: 1.2 [1.1, 1.3]) and hypertension (BMI: males: aOR: 1.2 [1.1, 1.2], females aOR: 1.1 [1.0, 1.1]; WC: males: aOR: 1.6 [1.4, 1.8], females: aOR: 1.3 [1.2, 1.5]). Although residing in urban settings was associated with higher odds of hypertension in both males (aOR: 1.79 [1.49, 2.16]) and females (aOR: 1.70 [1.49, 1.95]), it was only associated with prediabetes/diabetes in males (aOR: 1.56 [1.25, 1.96]). Males and females in pastoralist areas had lower odds of prediabetes/diabetes compared with their agrarian counterparts (males: aOR: 0.27 [0.14, 0.52], females: aOR: 0.31 [0.16, 0.58]). Physical activity was associated with lower odds of prediabetes/diabetes among females (aOR: 0.75 [0.58, 0.97]). Other diet-related modifiable factors such as consumption of fruit and vegetable, alcohol or salt were not associated with either prediabetes/diabetes or hypertension. Our findings highlight the need to implement interventions that prevent overweight/obesity and nutrition-related NCDs, particularly in urban areas.

Drivers of change in weight-for-height among children under 5 years of age in Ethiopia: Risk factors and data gaps to identify risk factors

The prevention of wasting should be a public health priority as the global burden of acute malnutrition is still high. Gaps still exist in our understanding of context-specific risk factors and interventions that can be implemented to prevent acute malnutrition. We used data from the four rounds of the Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey (2000–2016) to identify risk factors that have contributed to the change in weight-for-height z-score (WHZ) among children under 5 years of age. We performed a pooled linear regression analysis followed by a decomposition analysis to identify relevant risk factors and their relative contribution to the change in WHZ. Modest improvements in WHZ were seen between 2000 and 2016. The sharpest decrease in mean WHZ occurred from birth to 6 months of age. Perceived low weight at birth and recent diarrhoea predicted a decline in WHZ among children aged 0–5, 6–23 and 23–59 months. Less than 50% of the change in WHZ was accounted for by the change in risk factors included in our regression decomposition analysis. This finding highlights data gaps to identify context-specific wasting risk factors. The decline in the prevalence of recent diarrhoea (15% of the improvement), decline in low birth size (7%–9%), and an increase in wealth (15%–30%) were the main risk factors that accounted for the explained change in WHZ. Our findings emphasize the importance of interventions to reduce low birthweight, diarrhoea and interventions that address income inequities to prevent acute malnutrition.