Publications and Datasets

Adapting the Women’s Empowerment in Nutrition Index: Lessons from Kenya

Women face a disproportionate burden of malnutrition and food insecurity. Research has shown that women’s empowerment can buffer women against nutritional problems. This paper contributes to ongoing efforts to measure women’s empowerment that are both context-sensitive and universal, focusing on the recently developed Women’s Empowerment in Nutrition Index (WENI). Earlier research has shown it is both a valid construct and positively related to dietary and nutritional outcomes of women in South Asia. We establish that WENI is generalizable to agropastoral and pastoral Kenya, an area with substantially different livelihoods, food system, norms, and institutions than South Asia. We find that a locally contextualized WENI is strongly associated with women’s body mass index and dietary diversity as well as household level food insecurity. We also present findings for two shorter variations of WENI: an abbreviated WENI (A-WENI) and a cross context WENI (CC-WENI). A-WENI contains a small subset of WENI indicators identified using machine learning with South Asian data and therefore is context-specific. CC-WENI does not contain indicators specific to the validation context. We find that they perform comparably well with caveats. Thus, as use of WENI expands we recommend adapting WENI for in-depth analyses of women’s nutritional empowerment; using CC-WENI for cross-context comparisons; and using A-WENI for rapid appraisals of community level progress in a given context.

Dataset on the patterns of livelihood diversification in farming systems of the Eastern Gangetic Plains of South Asia

The Eastern Gangetic Plains (EGP) region, characterized by smallholder-dominated farming, is experiencing rapid socio-economic and environmental changes. To enhance resilience, income stability, and food security, smallholders are increasingly diversifying their livelihoods away from traditional agriculture. However, the patterns and drivers of this diversification remain poorly understood. This study, utilizing data from the Rupantar project, aims to elucidate these patterns, identify key drivers, and assess the impacts on productivity, profitability, nutrition, and inclusion. A mixed-methods approach was employed, including a baseline survey of 1,400 households across India, Nepal, and Bangladesh and analysis using the Simpson’s Index of Diversity (SID). Fractional regression models revealed moderate diversification levels across the EGP with significant geographical and contextual variability. Key drivers included access to resources, gender, education, market access, and institutional support, with differences observed across countries and diversification types. Factors such as non-ownership of irrigation pumps, female household headship, and engagement in off-farm activities were significant predictors of higher diversification. The study found that diversification can enhance income security, nutritional outcomes, and environmental sustainability, although impacts vary by diversification type.

Under the gun: Military and paramilitary actors in Sudan’s agri-food system

Armed actors, including militaries and paramilitaries, are heavily entrenched in the agrifood systems of several low- and middle-income countries, often resulting in negative implications for both agricultural transformation and democratic transitions. However, the role of armed actors is overlooked in the scholarship on the governance of agricultural value chains. To address this gap, this paper focuses on the role of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan’s agrifood system. Through over 50 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, the paper traces how the SAF and RSF initially gained their foothold in the agrifood system and how they interact with each other, and the private sector across diverse value chains. We argue that these actors decide to pursue investments in certain value chains depending on the extent to which the private sector is already involved and the degree of technical complexity required to attain more profitable product upgrading. Based on these considerations, we uncover four strategies used by SAF and RSF in different value chains: exclusive capture and rent extraction, competition through biased licensing and quota allocations, acquiescence to existing private competitors when value-addition is too complex, and innovation when potential is high and the private sector is absent. We show how these strategies manifest across value chains as diverse as livestock, wheat, gum Arabic, and horticulture, with secondary applications to other commodities. Given that economic competition between SAF and RSF was a major factor in the outbreak of the 2023 armed conflict, identifying how these strategies emerged and manifested not only contributes to the literature on business-state relations but also expands insights about the political economy antecedents of large-scale conflict.

Report on state-level training programme for FPOs in Odisha

This report summarizes the outcomes of two-day State-Level Training Program for Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs) for 3 batches held in Bhubaneswar, Odisha, from December 12-23, 2024. Organized by the Department of Agriculture & Farmer Empowerment (DAFE), Government of Odisha, in collaboration with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the CGIAR, the program aimed to enhance the knowledge and skills of FPO functionaries across the state. The training program, conducted across three batches, engaged approximately 131 participants, with a significant representation of women. The participants comprised CEOs and Board of Directors (BoD) members of FPOs from diverse districts of Odisha. The training curriculum was designed to address key areas of concern for FPOs, including FPO management, shareholder engagement, post-harvest management, certification, and market access. Experienced trainers, including Shri K.K. Jha and Shri Sujay Kar, along with researchers from IFPRI, delivered interactive sessions on these topics. The training program was well-received by the participants, with a strong emphasis on practical learning and interactive discussions. Key areas of interest for the participants included FPO management strategies, optimal shareholder numbers, post-harvest management practices, product certification, and exploring diverse marketing channels for their produce. This training program serves as a crucial step towards strengthening FPOs in Odisha by equipping them with the knowledge and skills necessary for sustainable growth and success. The insights and learnings gained from this program will be valuable in further enhancing the capacity of FPOs to contribute to the development of the agricultural sector in the state. The training program highlighted the critical role of Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs) in improving farmer livelihoods and strengthening the agricultural sector in Odisha. It provided a valuable platform for FPO functionaries to enhance their knowledge and skills in key areas of FPO management, such as financial management, marketing, and governance. The program fostered peer learning and networking among FPO representatives from different parts of the state. Furthermore, it identified key areas of concern and priorities for FPOs in Odisha related to the size, composition and structure, and tried to put forward some workable strategies to further strengthen the FPO ecosystem in the state. This executive summary provides a concise overview of the FPO training program, its objectives, methodology, and key outcomes.

Co-occurrence of stunting and off-track early child development in low- and middle-income countries

Importance: Although children across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are increasingly surviving, many are not fully thriving. Both stunting and off-track early child development (ECD) hinder children’s potential to thrive. Objectives: To estimate the global prevalence of the co-occurrence of stunting and off-track ECD and explore its association with nurturing care and sociodemographic factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study pooled data from the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (2010-2020) on 173 416 children aged 36-59 months in 41 LMICs. Statistical analysis was conducted from February to December 2024. Exposure: Risk factors pertaining to inadequate nurturing care, low socioeconomic status, and other sociodemographic characteristics. Main Outcomes and Measures: Children were classified into 4 groups with respect to thriving: children who were stunted only (height-for-age z score <−2 SD), off-track ECD only (measured using the Early Childhood Development Index), both stunted and off-track ECD (co-occurrence), or neither. Results: In the pooled sample of 173 416 children, the mean (SD) child age was 47.1 (6.8) months, and 88 242 (50.9%) were boys. Approximately 1 in 6 children (17.0% [95% CI, 16.8%-17.2%]) were both stunted and had off-track ECD, 17.1% (95% CI, 16.9%-17.3%) were stunted only, 27.8% (95% CI, 27.6%-28.0%) had off-track ECD only, and 38.1% (95% CI, 37.9%-38.4%) were neither stunted nor had off-track ECD. Socioeconomic gradients were observed, with more co-occurrence in lower-income countries (18.2% [95% CI, 17.9%-18.6%]), poorer households (22.1% [95% CI, 21.7%-22.5%] for poorest wealth quintile), mothers with lower educational levels (20.8% [95% CI, 20.6%-21.0%] for primary education or less), and rural settings (19.3% [95% CI, 19.1%-19.6%]). Various indicators of inadequate nurturing care along with low socioeconomic status were associated with co-occurrence. The top 5 factors associated with co-occurrence were poorest wealth quintile (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 2.75; 95% CI, 2.53-2.99), no early childhood education (AOR, 2.22; 95% CI, 2.10-2.34), low maternal educational level (AOR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.37-1.51), no toys at home (AOR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.35-1.51), and diarrhea (AOR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.31-1.45). The associations of poor household wealth, no birth registration, and no early childhood education with co-occurrence were significantly larger than their associations with stunting only or off-track ECD only. Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study of young children in LMICs suggests that a significant proportion were both stunted and had off-track ECD. These findings underscore the need for multisectoral interventions that holistically target nutrition, health, and ECD risks to ensure that all children globally can thrive, especially those facing the double burden of stunting and off-track ECD.

Quality of routine health and nutrition data in Ethiopia: A systematic review

Background High-quality data are vital for informed decision-making, enhancing population health, and achieving comprehensive insights. However, there is limited understanding of the consistency and reliability of routine Health Management Information System (HMIS) including nutrition data across diverse regions in Ethiopia. This study systematically reviewed the existing literature to address these knowledge gaps. Methods We systematically searched PubMed, HINARI, and Google Scholar for studies published from 2015 onwards to assess HMIS, including nutrition data quality in Ethiopia. The evaluations focused on completeness, consistency, and timeliness metrics defined by the WHO. We included diverse regional studies without indicator restrictions, prioritized data quality metrics as primary outcomes, and explored qualitative reasons for poor data quality as secondary outcomes. Results Of the 1790 papers screened, 25 met the inclusion criteria. The completeness of reporting varied widely among studies (50%–100%), with only 21% (4 out of 19) exceeding 90%. The consistency ranged from 38.9% to 90.5%, with only 6% of studies reporting internal consistency above 90%. Other consistency issues included lack of external consistency, indicator discrepancies, and outliers. Timeliness ranged from 41.9% to 93.7%, with 54% of studies reporting below 80%. In addition to the lack of studies addressing nutrition data, the quality was no better than other components of HMIS. The major factors contributing to poor data quality were human resource shortages, insufficient capacity building, behavioural influences, and infrastructural deficits. Conclusion The HMIS including nutrition data in Ethiopia, exhibited deficiencies in completeness, consistency, and timeliness, which were largely, attributed to capacity and resource constraints. Interventions should prioritize resource allocation, staff training, supervision, and feedback mechanisms to enhance data quality, thereby improving decision-making processes and population health outcomes.

Armed conflict and gendered participation in agrifood systems: Survey evidence from 29 African countries

This paper provides empirical micro-level evidence on the gendered impacts of armed conflict on economic activity in agriculture and other sectors, combining large-N sex-disaggregated survey data with temporally and spatially disaggregated conflict event data from 29 African countries. We find that local conflict exposure is only weakly related to labour-force participation, but strongly reduces the total number of hours worked and increases engagement in the agricultural sector. These net impacts exist for both men and women. However, the reduction in hours worked is significantly greater among men, while the increase in agricultural activity is significantly greater among women. In the longer term, impacts of conflict on employment two years later are stronger when no more conflict ensues than if further conflict occurs, challenging the widespread idea of one-off conflict shocks fading away over time and suggesting that labour markets adapt to and absorb lasting conflict situations. Different types of conflict event have qualitatively similar impacts, which are strongest for explosions, such as from air strikes or landmines. Overall, our findings underline that armed conflict entails structural economic, social and institutional change, which creates complex, gendered impacts on economic activity.

Building Ethiopia’s food security resilience to climate and hydrological change

Historically Ethiopia’s food security has been sensitive to climatic variability, but changes in future weather and climate could lead to overall reductions and increased variability in agricultural production, without further adaptation. We present an integrated modelling assessment framework which combines climate, crop, and hydrological modelling to quantify future risks to Ethiopia’s food security. We explore the impacts of 2°C and higher climate change scenarios on water availability and crop yields and simulate how future climate shocks may impact Ethiopia’s food. We consider three adaptations to agricultural management practices (improved seed varieties, increased use of nitrogen fertilizer and supplementary irrigation) and quantify their effectiveness in enhancing the resilience of Ethiopia’s food system to climate and hydrological change by 2050. Results show that, without policy intervention, climate change creates a risk of declining Meher season crop yields across Ethiopia. Under the worst climate change scenario, teff (−12.0%), barley (−6.7%), and wheat (−4.4%) are projected to have the largest decline in average yields, whilst maize (−0.1%) and sorghum (+0.9%) yields are less impacted thanks to more favourable growing conditions. However, the results also indicate that the adaptation options have a bigger beneficial effect than the climate impact. Of the policies evaluated, improved seeds have a relatively greater effect than increased fertilizer use. Supplementary irrigation could help to mitigate increases in crop water requirements under warmer climate conditions and is most effective in drought prone basins and for drought-vulnerable crops. Overall, the results show that locally relevant agricultural policies are necessary to build Ethiopia’s food system resilience to climate and hydrological change by the mid-century.

Perspective: Can growth monitoring and promotion accurately diagnose or screen for inadequate growth of individual children? A critical review of the epidemiological foundations

Growth monitoring and promotion (GMP), the process of periodic anthropometric measurements to assess the adequacy of individual child growth, is implemented across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The epidemiological foundations of GMP (i.e., that GMP can accurately diagnose or screen for inadequate growth) have never been critically reviewed. We first assessed growth patterns of individual healthy children. Using longitudinal data from low-, middle-, and high-income countries, we evaluated whether commonly used GMP criteria can be used for diagnosis and screening; i.e., if they accurately identify current, or predict subsequent, inadequate growth in individual children. The growth of individual healthy children does not track along a specific growth curve which challenges the notion that growth measurements alone can be used to distinguish between healthy and inadequate growth. We demonstrate that GMP criteria do not provide meaningful diagnostic information and that GMP is not a meaningful screening activity: commonly used GMP criteria are inaccurate predictors of (inadequate) growth later in childhood; and collecting individual children’s weight and height does not help to identify who needs support or who will benefit. Our results do not undermine the importance of dedicated programs to diagnose wasting in individual children nor do they challenge the need for well-child care to support parents and to ensure children’s optimal nutrition, health, and development. Our findings, however, highlight the need to carefully reconsider the current design of GMP in LMICs.

Risk-appropriate, science-based innovation regulations are important

Seed certification, certified seeds use and yield outcomes in Nigeria: Insights from nationally-representative farm panel data and seed company location data

CONTEXT Despite the importance of enhanced seed quality to agricultural productivity growth, evidence remains scarce regarding the nature and possible drivers of returns to formal sector quality assurance systems, including certified seeds production in countries like Nigeria that focus significantly on the formal-sector seed systems. OBJECTIVE This study narrows this knowledge gap by estimating the effect of the quantity of certified seeds produced and the spatial variations where they are produced on the use of certified seeds and yields. We also assess the yield effects of certified seeds use and their relationship with agroclimatic and socioeconomic conditions. METHODS We combine nationally-representative farm-household survey panel data with spatial data on the headquarters locations of seed companies, the quantity of certified seeds for maize, cowpea, and rice that they produce, and spatially explicit agroecological data. We apply panel fixed effects methods as well as instrumental-variable methods to address potential endogeneity associated with certified seeds use while also controlling for the use of improved varieties to separate their effects from the effects of certified seeds. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicate that the availability of certified seeds—captured by indicators of certified seeds produced by seed companies headquartered in the states of survey respondents—is associated with positive but declining marginal effects on certified seeds use and yields. These results are robust when we also consider the potential within-state heterogeneity in the proximity to seed company headquarters, as well as potential spillovers from the nearest adjacent states. The yield effects of certified seeds are heterogeneous and depend on agroclimatic conditions and farmers’ socioeconomic characteristics. The use of certified seeds is somewhat higher in areas with higher yield effects after controlling for certified seeds production. These patterns partly lead to observed non-linearities in certified seeds use because certified seeds may be more likely to be used by farmers with higher expected returns than farmers with lower expected returns. These results underscore the importance of spatially targeted efforts in enhancing certified seeds production capacity, together with the exploration of intermediate quality standards in the short term where costs of seed certification are high relative to returns. SIGNIFICANCE The study provides unique quantitative evidence in a nationally representative framework in an African country that returns to seed certification systems in the current setting significantly vary depending on contexts, including agroclimatic conditions.

Global analysis reveals persistent shortfalls and regional differences in availability of foods needed for health

Sufficient food is available in the world for all people to consume sufficient calories, but not healthy diets. This study traces historical and projected changes in global food systems toward alignment with the new Healthy Diet Basket (HDB) used by UN agencies and the World Bank to monitor the cost and affordability of healthy diets worldwide. Using the HDB as a standard to measure adequacy of national, regional and global supply-demand balances, we find substantial but inconsistent progress toward closer alignment with dietary guidelines, with large global shortfalls in fruits, vegetables, and legumes, nuts, and seeds, and large disparities among regions in use of animal source foods. Projections show that additional investments aimed at reducing chronic hunger would modestly accelerate improvements in adequacy where shortfalls are greatest, revealing the need for complementary investments to increase access to under-consumed food groups especially in low-income countries.

The dynamic impacts of alternative livestock sector intervention and spending options in Rwanda

This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of various livestock interventions—feed, breeding, and health—and budget allocation strategies (balanced, feed-oriented, breeding oriented, and health-oriented) in the context of Rwanda’s economic and livestock systems. Using an economic and livestock systems integrated framework, the research highlights moderate yet sustained impacts on agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and significant improvements in the livestock sector. Overall, breeding interventions have the largest cumulative effect on agricultural GDP, while health measures, particularly dewormers, yield long-term gains in livestock productivity. Under the balanced scenario, breeding contributes significantly to both meat and milk sector GDP, while feed interventions show a smaller impact overall. The study also finds that biased spending scenarios lead to differing outcomes across livestock sub-sectors. Breeding-oriented spending boosts milk GDP initially, whereas health-oriented spending excels in meat production through reduced deaths and increased liveweight. By the end of the simulation period, a balanced investment strategy results in a 12.5 percent increase in meat yield and a 27 percent rise in milk yield, largely driven by breeding. Health interventions, particularly deworming, are crucial for sustained meat production, while improved feed mitigates mortality and supports stock growth. These results can support policy dialogue, such as the recently introduced Fifth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 5), as policy makers seek to revitalize the livestock sector and enhance its resilience to future challenges.

Resilient Cities urban nutrition profile: Kenya

Despite progress in reducing child stunting over the past 15 years, Kenya is now facing new nutrition challenges, including overweight and obesity. The double burden of malnutrition (DBM), which is the coexistence of under- and overnutrition within individuals, households, and populations [1], manifests as child stunting and adult overweight (mostly in women) at the population and household levels. Dietary diversity is low and affects different population groups (particularly young children, adolescents, and women), predisposing them to micronutrient deficiencies. However, recent data on micronutrient intake and status are lacking. Households living in urban areas are vulnerable to being overweight, a consequence of increasingly unhealthy dietary patterns. In Kenya’s informal urban settlements, limited dietary diversity, reliance on cereals, and widespread consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) contribute to high rates of child stunting, underweight, and the DBM, with affordability and accessibility driving food choices. Compounding factors include food safety concerns, clustering of unhealthy food vendors, and external shocks. Urban nutrition interventions have had mixed results, with some programs improving child health and maternal knowledge, but others showing no significant impact. Kenya aims to eliminate malnutrition by 2027, but national policies focus mostly on rural areas, leaving urban nutrition challenges insufficiently addressed. Programs such as Afya Jiji and the Nairobi City County Food System Strategy target urban health, but gaps in urban-specific strategies, poor coordination, and limited funding hinder progress. The national school meals program serves only a small portion of schools, and urban food policies are still underdeveloped.

SELEVER study data

The SELEVER study was a cluster randomized controlled trial aiming to evaluate the effects of an inte-grated agriculture–nutrition intervention package (including poultry value chain development, women’s empowerment activities, and a behavior change communications strategy to promote improved diets and feeding, care, and hygiene practices) on the diets, health, and nutritional status of women and chil-dren in rural Burkina Faso (1). Four rounds of data collection were carried out in rural communities of three regions of Burkina Faso: Boucle du Mouhoun, Centre-Ouest and Haut-Bassins between March 2017 and August 2020. The first round (Baseline) took place between March and June 2017 during the post-harvest season in a sam-ple of 1800 households. The second (Follow-up) and third (Follow-up 2) rounds took place during the lean season in 2017 (September-October) and 2019 (September-October) in a subsample of 1080 households. The last survey round (Endline) took place between March and August 2020 (including a break due to covid-19 restrictions).

Cost effectiveness of anticipatory action: Lesotho, Madagascar, and Mozambique

An important question when conducting anticipatory action programs relates to its cost-effectiveness. By cost effectiveness, we refer to the relative costs and benefits of anticipatory action in general relative to a more standard approach to post-shock aid. In this context, we largely want to know what would happen to potential beneficiary households in two different scenarios: 1) if they receive anticipatory action transfers, and 2) if they instead receive unconditional post-shock transfers of the same size. The idea is that we assume there is a fixed budget envelope, and the same amount of assistance could be provided as either anticipatory action or as post-shock transfers. The resulting measurement estimates the difference in benefits and losses to providing anticipatory action relative to post-shock assistance, providing a conclusion on the overall net benefits or losses of this approach. Since we assume a fixed budget envelope, we invert the process of measuring cost effectiveness by measuring the net benefits of anticipatory action relative to post-shock transfers. This analysis uses the conceptual framework developed by de Brauw and Bloem (2024) to identify classes of potential benefits and costs for anticipatory action relative to unconditional post-shock transfers. The model suggests the main benefit to anticipatory action is that households can better protect their productive asset holdings, whether livestock or other farm implements, which implies their future incomes will be higher than they would be otherwise. There are also potential gains for households during the negative shock, implying those households may be less food insecure, for example, while the shock is occurring.1 On the other hand, the framework suggests that a specific cost to anticipatory action is the cost of getting it wrong (i.e., giving people benefits when the shock does not materialize for those people).

Trends and associated factors of animal source foods consumption among children aged 6–23 months in Bangladesh: Evidence from four consecutive national surveys

Animal source foods (ASF) are nutrient-dense and essential for the growth and development of children. The Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) 2022 reported that approximately two-thirds of children aged 6–23 months consumed eggs/flesh foods. However, overall consumption patterns, trends, and factors influencing ASF intake among children in Bangladesh were not well-documented. Therefore, the study aimed to assess the trends and associated factors of ASF consumption among children aged 6–23 months in Bangladesh. A total of 9401 children were extracted from four consecutive BDHS (2011, 2014, 2017/18, and 2022). The Cochran-Armitage test was conducted to assess the trends in ASF consumption, while a two-stage multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression was performed to identify the associated factors. The consumption of ASF significantly increased to 79.1% in 2017/18 from 67% in 2011 but decreased to 73.3% in 2022. ASF consumption was found to be higher among children whose mothers were educated (AOR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.30–1.98), employed in either agricultural (AOR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.04–1.54) or non-agricultural (AOR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.07–1.72) activities, pregnant (AOR = 2.54, 95% CI = 1.66–3.87), had received ANC 1–3 times (AOR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.20–1.72) or ≥4 times (AOR = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.29–1.95), and was exposed to media (AOR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.04–1.39). Furthermore, consumption increased with increasing the age of children, and the wealth of their families. However, children who experienced illness were less likely to consume ASF (AOR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.68–0.86). The recent declines in ASF consumption emphasize the need for targeted interventions to increase ASF consumption among children in Bangladesh.

Market monitoring in Rwanda’s rice sector: Insights from recent events

Summary • While domestic rice production has risen 16% over the past five years, district level growth rates are varied and suggest strong growth in some districts but reductions in others. Leveraging higher growth area’s successes could be used to further expand production in declining growth districts. • Microeconomic data suggests that smallholder rice farmers have slightly larger than average landholdings, grow at lower elevations, and sell about twice the percentage of crop value when compared to typical smallholders. • A declining Tanzanian rice premium over the last five years (2019-2024) suggests a greater substitutability between Rwandan and Tanzanian rice but specific reasons for this trend are unclear and warrant further research. Overall, a 50 percent premium has been reduced to currently about 20 percent. • Following a dramatic price increase in 2022, a subsequent large decrease in Tanzanian wholesale rice prices may have undermined government price setting in August 2024. Domestic producer rice price setting has been based on costs of production but appears to not consider other factors, such as the effects of imported prices of direct substitutes. A price analysis reveals that Tanzanian wholesale prices, valued in USD, fell about 37 percent from October 2023 to August 2024, while Rwandan retail rice prices were down only 14 percent. This relative price decrease could have effectively squeezed Rwandan processors when faced with government determined local producer prices that constricted potential profitability against rapidly declining Tanzanian prices. • Research presented below indicates that Tanzanian wholesale prices have large, immediate impacts on rice prices in Rwanda, but Rwandan prices have little to no effect on either imported or wholesale Tanzanian rice prices. Therefore, dramatic changes of Tanzania wholesale prices have large effects on both retail Tanzanian and Rwandan rice prices in Rwanda. This unidirectional effect highlights the importance of monitoring domestic and important international prices and studying prices which could have potentially helped policymakers adjust to market dynamics more effectively and better inform target interventions. We recommend developing an improved market monitoring and forecasting unit to better incorporate the food systems approach promoted in PSTA 5.

Commercialization and dietary diversity of Rwandan smallholder farmers: A focus on women and youth headed households

Using a household dietary diversity score as a proxy for household access to nutritious foods, this paper assesses the relationship between commercialization and nutritional outcomes of Rwandan smallholder farmers, with a particular emphasis on women and youth headed households. The results indicate that commercialization has a strong, positive effect on household dietary diversity but mixed results between sub-categories of households. For instance, male-headed households have higher overall dietary diversity compared to female-headed ones, but much of that variation can be explained by higher asset ownership and income. However, relative to male headed households, female headed households appear to respond to increasing levels of commercialization by consuming more diverse foods, an insight that could be useful for targeted interventions. Importantly, youth-headed households exhibit greater household dietary diversity than those households headed by older individuals, despite having both lower levels of assets and crop commercialization. General determinants that positively influence household dietary diversity include the level of commercialization, household non-farm assets, market access, education of the household head, the presence of children under five in the household, irrigation use, land size, and livestock holdings. The goal of this research is to enable policy makers to better identify the drivers of household dietary consumption, particularly among more vulnerable households, and how to encourage a more diverse diet for better nutritional outcomes.

Digital marketing of unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages to children and adolescents: A narrative review

With growing access to electronic devices and time spent online, the food and beverage industry increasingly uses digital media to market unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages (high in unhealthy fats, sugars, and/or salt and often highly processed) to children and adolescents. We conducted a narrative review of the global evidence on digital marketing of these foods and drinks and studied policies and regulations in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. Evidence was limited to a few high, upper-middle and lower-middle income countries where children and adolescents were found to be extensively exposed to the digital marketing of unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages and this exposure increased with age. A wide range of purposefully designed marketing techniques were used. Exposure to the digital marketing of unhealthy foods appears to be followed by increased consumption, but the quality of the evidence was limited. Accurate assessment of exposure was a shortcoming in most studies. Stronger evidence will require studies with more rigorous designs that minimize confounding and objectively quantify individual exposure. Mandatory comprehensive policies are needed that limit exposure of children and adolescents to the marketing of unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages irrespective of the medium or platform they use. The experience of LAC countries may provide insights for the development of effective policies in other countries. Novel technologies that can be used by governments to monitor digital marketing regulations are needed.

Advancing women’s voice and empowerment in the agrifood policy process: Findings and recommendations from the WEAGov India Pilot Study

Women’s equal participation and leadership in political and public life can boost a country’s long-run economic growth, foster social inclusion, and help countries reach the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. Beyond these important outcomes, women’s inclusion in public life is a basic human right: women deserve a role in making decisions, controlling resources, and shaping policies. Yet, globally, only 22 percent of members of parliament and 16 percent of cabinet secretaries are women. Although disproportionately employed in the agrifood system, women lack decision-making power regarding the policies that govern it. And beyond high-level statistics like the share of women in national parliaments, there is a lack of tools for measuring and tracking gender equality in national- and state-level governance (ElDidi et al., 2021; Quisumbing et al., 2023; Ragasa et al., 2022). Yet, achieving meaningful progress on gender equality within governance requires identifying specific gaps and opportunities within a country’s policy process.

Does trade with multinationals induce greener production? Evidence from the Bangladesh fashion industry

This working paper examines the impact of trading with global fashion brands on the environmental performance of suppliers in Bangladesh. The study finds that an increase in the number of exporters to brand multinationals improves the river water quality surrounding these exporters, highlighting the crucial role multinational buyers play in mitigating industrial pollution. JEL Classification: F18, F64, O13, Q56

Unique datasets on shocks, food security, and household coping strategies: Creating new analytical playgrounds to study coping behavior in the multi-shock environments of Mali, Chad, Niger, and Burkina Faso (2018-2023)

To inform the Cadre Harmonisé process in West Africa, large-scale national household surveys are usually implemented twice a year to capture data on household food security and several forms of consumption- and livelihood-based coping strategies. These cross-sectional surveys typically take place around February-March (before the start of the lean season) and September-October (at the end of the lean season or beginning of the harvesting period), and they are generally representative at the second-tier administrative level. Despite their different names (that is, ENSAN in Mali, ENSA in Chad, EVIAM in Niger, and ENISAN in Burkina Faso) and the methodological revisions introduced over the years, these surveys have a large common set of variables that were pooled together by standardizing the modalities of all common variables found across the multiple survey waves between 2018 and 2023. Apart from reconsolidation and reprocessing of initial data files, this process also involved the re-computation of several key indicators on food security and household coping as to assure maximum methodological consistency over time.

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, January 2025

Highlights  Retail prices of maize increased by 21 percent in January.  Maize prices were lowest in the Northern region, where informal imports from Tanzania and northern Zambia enter the country, and increased southward.  Some maize was exported to southern Zambia, but high prices in southern Malawi attracted imports from Mozambique.  At the market exchange rate, retail prices of maize in Malawi were similar to those in Zambia and lower than in Mozambique and Zimbabwe.

Can district level support enhance coverage and equity? Evidence from India’s nutrition program

Importance: India’s Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) program is among the world’s largest nutrition and health programs that offers services to pregnant, lactating mothers, and young children. To support national investments towards universalization of ICDS interventions, between 2016 and 2020, the Indian government in collaboration with multiple partners, introduced system strengthening mechanisms at the district (subnational administrative unit) level in 64% of India’s districts. Objectives: To examine national-level trends in coverage and equity of ICDS interventions and the role of district-level support mechanisms in improving equitable coverage. Design, Setting, and Participants: This quasi-experimental assessment used data (N=393,097 mother-child pairs) from three rounds of nationally representative surveys in 2006, 2016, and 2020. We used inequity indices and regression models to assess changes in equity by wealth, caste, and residence. We applied difference-in-differences (DID) models to investigate changes in coverage due to district support mechanisms between 2016 and 2020. Intervention: The district support mechanisms were introduced between 2016 and 2020 and included a combination of input features such as capacity building of frontline workers, additional human resources, financial, infrastructural, and technological support, among others. Main Outcomes and Measures: Our primary outcomes were the receipt of thirteen ICDS services during pregnancy, lactation, and early childhood. District support mechanisms were grouped into three treatment arms for DID analyses using an intention-to-treat approach with heterogeneous treatments. Results: ICDS utilization continued to increase from 2016 to 2020, with the most improvement observed in health and nutrition education (20-21pp). Unlike 2006-2016, there were large improvements in coverage equity between 2016-2020. DID models show, on average, that districts receiving any programmatic support had significant and faster improvements in coverage (2.2-14.7pp). Pooled effects sizes were larger, on average, for districts that received financial support in addition to human resources (8.9pp, 95% CI 7.3-10.74) compared to districts that only received human resource support (4.5pp, 95% CI 3.4-5.7). Conclusions: India’s programmatic efforts to further strengthen the ICDS were successful in increasing coverage of ICDS program at the national-level and reducing coverage inequities that persisted earlier. Focused district support mechanisms enabled faster progress in coverage and equity.

How helpful are the “hidden costs of food systems” numbers?

The long-run and intergenerational impact of early exposure to the Great Chinese Famine of 1959–61 on mental health

We study the effects of early exposure to the Great Chinese Famine on the mental health and subjective well-being of survivors as well as their offspring using data from the 2010 and 2014 waves of the China Family Panel Studies. Our analysis focuses on K6 scores, severe mental illness, and life dissatisfaction. We find that early exposure to the famine has impaired the mental health outcomes of women, but not men (i.e., the first generation). For the second generation, negative effects only show up among the sons of male famine survivors. Some preliminary evidence suggests that the mechanism for such transmission may have to do with the cultural son preference.

Methodology [of the PEDAL project]

Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) is considered one of the most cost-effective ways of addressing micronutrient deficiencies. The intervention involves adding essential minerals and vitamins to widely consumed foods and requires minimal changes to consumption patterns while relying on existing food delivery systems. However, there is a lot of variability across countries in the adoption of mandatory and voluntary LSFF standards, that is, the government legislation requiring that specific staple foods or condiments be fortified. In fact, there are more than 80 countries where micronutrient deficiencies are widespread but a mandatory fortification standard has not been adopted. Even in countries where standards have been adopted, implementation could not be financially sustained over the years or laboratory tests revealed that designated food vehicles lacked the stipulated micronutrients. The Political Economy Diagnostic for Assessing Large-Scale Food Fortification (PEDAL) is designed to identify the ways in which political and institutional factors may contribute to differences in the uptake and implementation of LSFF standards. While political economy is acknowledged to be an important factor underlying the success or failure of LSFF, few studies on LSFF explicitly incorporate it into their analyses. By reducing LSFF to a purely technical intervention, bottlenecks to policy traction can worsen and derail uptake. In contrast, PEDAL offers a systematic diagnostic of the political economy environment for LSFF to identify these bottlenecks ex ante and to calibrate policy interventions accordingly. In doing so, PEDAL aims to help countries advance toward achieving healthier diets and reducing micronutrient deficiencies. PEDAL focuses on two core elements of the enabling environment: political will and implementation capacity (see Figure 1). Political will consists of the range of interests that motivate different stakeholders, the ideational goals that underlie their policy preferences, and their degree of leverage to exert their preferences. Implementation capacity consists of both the institutional architecture established to make continuous decisions related to LSFF policy and the technical capacity to ensure regulations are adhered to at the processing and retail levels. Across both dimensions, the diagnostic examines three sets of actors: the public sector (including government ministries, agencies, executives, legislators, and bureaucrats), the private sector (such as food producers, processors, and retailers) and civil society (including consumers, research institutes, universities, journalists, and nongovernmental organizations). The remainder of this brief examines these components in more detail and highlights how they can be assessed by researchers and practitioners.

The effects of prenatal multiple micronutrient supplementation and small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplementation on small vulnerable newborn types in low-income and middle-income countries: A meta-analysis of individual participant data

Background Small vulnerable newborn types, defined by combinations of being born too soon or too small, have distinct determinants and health consequences. We aimed to assess the effects of prenatal multiple micronutrient supplementation (MMS) and small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplementation (SQ-LNS) on small vulnerable newborn types, which are currently unknown. Methods In this meta-analysis, individual participant data from randomised controlled trials of MMS and randomised controlled trials of SQ-LNS in low-income and middle-income countries were used. We systematically searched the literature using PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science to identify randomised controlled trials of prenatal nutritional supplementation using MMS or SQ-LNS among pregnant people published between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2021. Studies were excluded if they were conducted exclusively among participants selected by pre-existing health conditions, such as anaemia status, HIV infection, or diabetes. We contacted the corresponding authors of all identified studies to seek data contribution. As individual participant data became available, we mapped relevant variables and harmonised the data across studies. Iron and folic acid supplementation was the control group in most studies. Newborns were classified into ten groups through the combinations of preterm or term birth, small, appropriate, and large for gestational age, and low birthweight (LBW) or non-LBW. Newborns were also analysed using a four-group categorisation of preterm or term and LBW or non-LBW. Log-binomial models were used to estimate study-specific risk ratios (RRs), which were pooled using meta-analyses. Findings 14 randomised controlled trials of MMS (n=42 618; the mean maternal age at study enrolment was 24·3 years [SD 5.6]; 22 086 [51·8%] male neonates and 20 532 [48·2%] female neonates) and four randomised controlled trials of SQ-LNS (n=6246; the mean maternal age at study enrolment was 23·3 years [SD 5·3]; 3137 [50·2%] male neonates and 3109 [49·8%] female neonates) were used. In the ten-group categorisation of small vulnerable newborns, prenatal MMS reduced the risk of preterm–small for gestational age (SGA)–LBW (RR 0·73, 95% CI 0·64–0·84; p=0·0003); preterm–appropriate for gestational age (AGA)–LBW (0·82, 0·74–0·91; p=0·0010); preterm–AGA–non-LBW (0·89, 0·80–0·98; p=0·019); term–SGA–LBW (0·91, 0·85–0·96; p=0·0046); and term–SGA–non-LBW (0·95, 0·90–1·00; p=0·050). In the four-group categorisation, prenatal MMS reduced the risk of preterm–SGA (0·71, 0·62–0·82; p=0·0002) and term–SGA (0·93, 0·89–0·98; p=0·0066). Prenatal SQ-LNS had no significant effects on the risk of giving birth to small vulnerable newborns except for preterm–large for gestational age–non-LBW in the ten-group categorisation (0·78, 0·65–0·94; p=0·023). Interpretation Prenatal MMS and SQ-LNS reduce the risk of giving birth to small vulnerable newborns to varying extents, with the greatest magnitude of effects observed for small vulnerable newborn types that confer the greatest neonatal mortality risk. This study underscores the importance of nutritional supplements in prenatal care.

Madagascar assessment

Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) presents a promising intervention in Madagascar, where approximately 75% of the population lives below the poverty line and faces multiple malnutrition burdens. For instance, 39.8% of children under age five are stunted, and 37.8% of reproductive age women suffer from anemia (Development Initiatives 2022). These trends persist despite a long history of nutrition programs and alliances, including the introduction of a mandatory salt iodization program in 1995, several national nutrition policies and action plans since 2004, and the country’s participation in the Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) movement since 2021. Moreover, despite several voluntary standards in place, progress in implementing mandatory LSFF for widely consumed foods remains stalled, lagging behind LSFF in many other African countries.

Conditional contracts in indirect local procurement of maize from smallholder farmers in Uganda: A study design to assess impacts

Improving smallholder farmers’ access to reliable markets can have significant impacts on their wellbeing, income, poverty reduction, dietary diversity, and rural economic growth. As the choice of marketing channels may influence outcomes differently depending on the context, a key issue is understanding the effectiveness of different marketing instruments. One such modality is a conditional contract between a buyer and the traders supplying it. Such a contract requires traders to source a certain percentage of their supplies directly from smallholder farmers. This raises the question of whether conditional contracts create access to reliable markets for smallholder farmers, result in value chain transformation, and sustain market engagement between traders and smallholder farmers.

The connection between climate change and malnutrition

The linkage is increasingly being acknowledged by policies and in climate protection measures. But concrete, well-financed and institutionally backed strategies are still lacking.

Household wellbeing in rural Papua New Guinea: Poverty analysis from the 2023 PNG Rural Household Survey

This analysis provides the first poverty assessment using the cost of basic needs approach in Papua New Guinea in 1.5 decades. The cost of basic needs poverty methodology is the standard approach to estimating poverty in low- and middle-income countries. It aims to reflect the cost of a food basket and nonfood needs to secure a healthy life and minimum standard of living. Using the cost of basic needs approach, we calculate and compare two poverty measurements. First, we compute a standard (traditional) cost of basic needs poverty line where the food poverty line is defined by a dietary energy (calorie) threshold. Second, we extend the standard cost of basic needs approach to calculate a healthy diet food poverty line that meets both the dietary energy threshold, as well as recommended nutrition targets. Results suggest that 43 percent of sample individuals live below the standard cost of basic needs poverty line. When recalculating the poverty line to account for a healthy diet threshold (a mix of food groups set at quantities consistent with dietary guidelines), we find that 64 percent of the sample is below the healthy diet poverty line. On average, households within the survey sample over-consume the recommended daily quantity of staples and fats, however daily consumption of vegetables, fruits, and protein-rich foods (e.g., fish, meat, nuts) fall short of recommended targets. The above poverty analysis begs the question of what characteristics are associated with higher income earning households (we use per capita consumption-expenditure as the rural income proxy). Regression analysis suggests that greater production assets (land and labor), education, market access, and income diversification (via non-farm businesses and migrant remittances) are associated with higher household incomes. While we hypothesized that households engaged in cash crop sales (i.e. cocoa, coffee, betelnut, horticulture) would be significantly better off, we find that only cocoa farming households have significantly higher incomes. The regression analysis reveals that facilitated access to a market is one of the most important indicators explaining per capita consumption-expenditure (i.e. income per person). Households that are more than 4 hours from a market have about 25 percent less income compared to households that are within 2 hours from a market. Conversely, households that report owning a small business (non-farm enterprise) are associated with approximately 25 percent greater consumption-expenditure per capita. While market access and income diversification are important to household incomes, weather shocks such as floods are associated with significant declines (8 percent) in per capita consumption-expenditure. Given the above results, a pilot social safety net program in more remote (greater than 4 hours from a market) and flood prone areas, where household incomes are significantly lower, may provide important insights on the most efficient mechanisms to build resilience among PNG’s vulnerable population. Including a community asset building component (e.g., building and maintenance of rural feeder roads and bridges) in the social safety net program could be tested to understand how best to support rural-urban market linkages and incentivize off-farm employment. Understanding that a social safety net program requires significant resourcing (including financial, logistics and time), there are other opportunities to improve rural welfare within the country. Facilitating remittance transfers from migrants to rural households via electronic banking services and easing banking costs for rural households may increase remittance payments. In addition, facilitating access to primary education via reduced school fees and increasing school attendance via school feeding programs could provide greater income earning opportunities for better educated households, as well as (if designed properly) fill some of the nutrition gaps demonstrated by the large share of individuals that live under the healthy diet poverty line presented in this paper.

Country profile – Senegal: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages

This country brief supports GCAN’s goal of integrating gender, climate resilience, and nutrition considerations into policies, interventions, and research by providing policymakers, program officers, and researchers with an analysis of Senegal’s current situation and policy landscape in these areas. In 2019, the agrifood system of Senegal accounted for 36% of total GDP and employed 43% of the total work force. The off-farm components (i.e., processing, trade/transport, food services, and input supply) are slightly more (less) important than primary agriculture in terms of GDP (employment), which implies that labor productivity is higher for off-farm activities. The most important value chains as a percentage of total agrifood system’s GDP are groundnuts (15%), cattle/dairy (14%), and sorghum/millet and fish (both around 11%) (Diao et al. 2023). In part due to important food losses observed during storage and distribution, Senegal’s agrifood system is generally failing to provide nutritious and affordable diets to its population. In fact, total food supplies are dominated by energy-dense food items, with supplies in fruit and pulses amounting to only 55 and 15 grams per capita per day, respectively, resulting in 50% of all Senegalese being unable to afford a healthy diet in 2022.

Household wellbeing in rural Papua New Guinea: Analysis from the 2023 PNG Rural Household Survey

Key Messages  The PNG 2023 Rural Household Survey collected detailed consumption and expenditure data, which allows the first cost of basic needs poverty assessment since the 2009/10 Household Income Expenditure Survey. However, it is important to note that the survey is not nationally representative.  43% of sample individuals are estimated to be poor relative to the standard cost of basic needs poverty lines (poor is defined as those who live in households that do not have sufficient resources to acquire calorie adequate diets while also meeting basic non-food needs).  64% of sample individuals are estimated to be poor relative to the healthy diet poverty lines (poor is defined as those who live in households that do not have sufficient resources to meet healthy dietary guidelines while also meeting basic non-food needs).  The healthy diet poverty line incorporates a higher share of nutrient dense food groups (vegetables, fruits, meat and fish, etc.) and thus is about 1/3 more costly than the standard poverty line.  On average, households within the survey sample over-consume staples and fats compared to healthy guidelines and under-consume vegetables, fruits, animal source foods, and nuts/pulses.  Smaller households and households with greater production assets (land and labor), education completion, market access, and income diversification (via non-farm businesses and migrant remittances) are associated with higher household consumption-expenditure (income proxy).  Among households engaged in cash crop sales (i.e., cocoa, coffee, betelnut, horticulture) only cocoa farming households have significantly higher consumption-expenditure (income proxy).  Targeted safety net and community asset building programs could reduce rural poverty by increasing agriculture productivity, supporting rural-urban market linkages, improving demand for rural goods, and incentivizing off-farm employment.  Facilitating remittance transfers from migrants to rural households and facilitating access to primary education could improve rural incomes in the short and long term, respectively.

‘Gold runs through these trees’: Preferences for ecosystems payment programs in Papua New Guinea

Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) programs (such as REDD+ and voluntary carbon credit programs) have been designed to provide improved forest governance, reduced carbon emissions and diversified income sources for forest communities. However, recent evaluations of REDD+ projects across diverse countries have shown mixed results. In 2022, the government of Papua New Guinea put a moratorium on voluntary carbon credit programs due to inadequately specified processes on contract design and targeting, resulting in ongoing deforestation and lack of transparent remuneration in participating communities under select programs. As the country reassesses how to engage in voluntary carbon credit programs, this study aims to inform the design of PES programs tailored to meet the needs of forest landholders. Using recently collected rural household survey data, we evaluate the unique characteristics that are correlated with forest-owning households’ likelihood of accepting a PES contract. The discrete choice experiments included in the survey, and complementary focus group discussions suggest that forest landholders prefer PES contracts with higher financial incentives and lower land area commitments, requiring an additional $39.07 per hectare per year to preserve all forested land compared to committing half of their forested land to a PES contract. Other factors, such as household size, the use of forest land for timber production and commercial logging, ongoing forest preservation activities within a community and market access also influence respondents’ preferences for PES contracts.

Association between wasting and inadequate breastfeeding practices among infants under six months in SNNPR and Somali regions of Ethiopia: A multilevel cross-sectional study

Background Wasting is a severe threat to children’s survival and development. Attaining optimal breastfeeding practices for infants under six months of age remains a significant challenge in low-income countries. This study assessed the association between wasting and breastfeeding practices among infants under six months of age in the SNNPR and Somali regions of Ethiopia. Methods The study used data from a large feasibility study conducted in the SNNPR and Somali regions of Ethiopia, from August-September 2021. This study involved 895 infants under six months of age with their mothers. The Poisson regression model with robust variance estimation was used to produce adjusted prevalence ratios (APRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results The prevalence of wasting was 16.5% (95% CI: 14.2, 19.2) among infants under six months of age. Non-exclusive breastfeeding (APR = 1.50; 95% CI:1.02, 2.21), delayed initiation of breastfeeding (APR = 1.52; CI:1.00, 2.30), being male infants (APR = 1.50; 95% CI:1.09, 2.07), and mothers who attained primary level (APR = 0.62; 95% CI: 0.40, 0.95) or secondary level education (APR = 0.30; 95% CI: 0.09, 0.99) were independently associated with wasting in the multivariable analysis. Conclusion This study indicates a high prevalence of wasting among infants under six months of age. Non-exclusive breastfeeding and delayed initiation of breastfeeding were the modifiable factors significantly linked to infant wasting. Strengthening breastfeeding promotion and support may help reduce wasting in infants under six months.

Household coping strategies and food security in the multi-shock environment of Mali

This study investigates household coping strategies and food security outcomes within the context of multiple, overlapping shocks, including conflict, food price volatility, climate events, and economic instability. Utilizing a unique household dataset on Mali combined with probit models to account for the compounded effects of these systemic shocks, the analysis highlights significant elasticities between specific shocks and household responses. Key findings demonstrate that while preventive measures, such as income diversification, strengthen resilience, reactive strategies like selling productive assets or borrowing money or food provide only short-term relief but undermine long-term sustainability. The impact of coping strategies on food security measures, including the Food Consumption Score (FCS), Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS), and Household Hunger Scale (HHS), reveals the trade-offs Malian households make between immediate needs and future stability. The study emphasizes the critical role of policy interventions in mitigating these vulnerabilities, including strengthening social safety nets, expanding access to financial services, and promoting climate-resilient agricultural practices. By integrating the analysis of multiple shocks, this research provides actionable insights for building household and community resilience in environments of compounded risk.

Integrated agro-industrial parks in Ethiopia: Status, success and challenges with a focus on Yirgalem IAIP

This study aims to assess the current state, successes, and challenges of Integrated Agro-Industrial Parks (IAIPs) in Ethiopia, with a specific focus on the Yirgalem Integrated Agro-Industrial Park (YIAIP). The analysis is based on an extensive literature review and semi-structured interviews with key informants (KIIs). By examining the current state of Ethiopia’s IAIPs, the research provides valuable insights into their successes and shortcomings, offering critical lessons to enhance the sustainability of IAIPs in Ethiopia and guide the development of similar initiatives in other Sub-Saharan African countries.

Papua New Guinea food price bulletin: January 2025

Download time series food price data, and build graphs and tables for over 20 different food crops at our food price database webpage: https://www.ifpri.org/project/fresh-food-price-analysis-papua-new-guinea/ Price trends: Quarterly comparisons (Q4 2024 vs. Q4 2023 and Q4 2022) Sweet potato prices in Q4 of 2024 were 20.4 percent higher in all markets compared to Q4 of 2023 (averaging 1.64 PGK/kg in Q4 of 2023, and 1.79 PGK/kg in 2024). However, sweet potato prices in Kokopo were 13 percent lower in 2024 (1.35 PGK/kg) compared to 2023 Q4 price (1.55/PGK/kg) Rice prices have increased slowly (but remained stable) since 2022. Compared to Q4 2023, rice prices in 2024 were 14 percent higher in Kokopo, Lae and Port Moresby. Vegetable prices, on average, in Q4 of 2024 were 23.6 lower in Goroka compared to Q4 of 2023. Compared to Q4 2022, the price of vegetables, on average, in 2024 were 22.1 percent lower in highland markets. Fruits saw mixed price movements between 2023 and 2024: lemon prices in Q4 2024 were 28.4 percent lower, on average, across all markets.

Completion report: Agricultural transformation and market integration in the ASEAN region: Responding to food security and inclusiveness concerns

The ATMI-ASEAN project was launched on October 7–8, 2016, in the Philippines. It is a five-year project funded by International Funds for Agriculture Development (IFAD) with a year’s extension due to the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The implementation of the project was led by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and co-implemented by the Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA). The ATMI-ASEAN project comprises three main components: Component 1. Policy studies and expert workshops; Component 2. High-level policy forums (HLPFs) and roundtables; and Component 3. Technical assistance for planning and policy development. Each component was scheduled and implemented over the project implementation from 2016 to 2021, then extended for a year to finalize the project implementation affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. This report elaborates on all project outputs throughout the implementation.

Synthesis report: Agricultural transformation and market integration in the ASEAN region: Responding to food security and inclusiveness concerns

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a regional grouping of Southeast Asian countries formed in 1967 by Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Brunei Darussalam joined this association in 1984. ASEAN expanded to 10 countries between 1995 and 1999 by extending memberships to Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Viet Nam. These 10 Southeast Asian countries entered into the trade agreement to ensure the free flow of goods, including agricultural products. Agreements related to services and investment were also signed to enhance economic cooperation and to develop an ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). The implementation of the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) in 2003 helped liberalize the intra-ASEAN agricultural trade, which grew steadily during the period under review. Further, the dynamics of intra ASEAN trade show that after the food price crisis of 2007/2008, intra-ASEAN agricultural trade increased sharply, which reflects ASEAN’s efforts to create a food security action plan aimed at improving sustainable food trade among ASEAN members.

Agrifood value chains in India: A state-level analysis using a social accounting matrix

This study describes disparities in per capita income, in the structure of the economy, and in agrifood systems (AFS) across states in India. We use the gross value added (GVA) obtained from state-specific agrifood value chains (AVCs) to describe the size and structure of the AFS in each state of India. This study also presents the size of employment and variability in labor productivity within the AFS across states. A special focus is given to female and youth employment in the state specific AVCs. The 2017/18 state-level social accounting matrix (SAM) for India is the primary data source for estimating statewise GVA from the AFS. Periodic Labor Force Survey data are used to estimate the size of AFS employment. Our results reveal that the bottom half of the Indian population has an average per capita income of US$1,019, 2.5 times lower than that of the top half. India’s AFS is valued at $756 billion, or 31 percent of its GVA. Primary agriculture comprises 59 percent of the AFS, and off-farm activities the rest. The share of off-farm activities in the AFS rises moving from lower-income states to higher-income states, corroborating the theory of structural transformation. The national average share of female workers in total employment is 23 percent and the majority of women who do work are engaged in primary agriculture. The share of women employed in the primary agriculture sector does not change between low- and high-income states in India. In contrast, the share of youth in primary agriculture declines between lower- and higher-income states. Since state governments in India are empowered to design their own policy and development strategies, this study provides an important policy insight to both the federal (central) and state governments.

Child growth and development in rural Papua New Guinea

Stakeholder disconnect: Differences between farmers, extension workers, and researchers on preferred strategies for timely wheat sowing in Bihar, India

Late sowing of wheat is a persistent problem in South Asia despite widespread awareness that it lowers crop yields. We asked 2034 farmers, 33 researchers, and 114 frontline extension workers (EW) in Bihar, India to rank 6 commonly recommended solutions for their effectiveness. Respondents faced repeated rounds of best-worst choices to obtain a full ranking of the options. Responses were analyzed using random utility models. Farmers ranked timely and affordable irrigation as the most effective solution and zero-tillage (ZT) the least effective one; researchers ranked ZT the highest. The EW were somewhere in the middle. A better understanding of the reasons behind the differences in the assessments of researchers, extension personnel, and farmers about what will work the best will generate better solutions.

The case for food system knowledge support system (FS-KSS)

The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) Strategy and Action Plan (2026-2035) is a key framework aimed at transforming Africa’s agrifood systems to achieve sustainable agricultural growth, food security, and economic development across the continent. Building on the lessons from the Malabo Declaration, the Plan emphasizes the need for sustainable food production, inclusivity, and resilience in the face of climate change and other challenges. However, achieving these ambitious goals requires a robust and integrated support system that can provide accurate, real time data, facilitate evidence-based decision-making, and promote accountability among stakeholders. Without a well-functioning knowledge system, the efforts to transform agrifood systems may be hindered by data gaps, limited analytical capacity, and a lack of coordination among various actors. The effectiveness of food systems in Africa is often hindered by data gaps, inconsistencies, and limited capacity for data analysis. These issues compromise the ability of governments and other stakeholders to make informed decisions, implement sound policies, and monitor progress toward national and continental goals such as food security and climate resilience. This is where the Food System Knowledge Support System (FS-KSS) becomes crucial, as it provides the necessary tools to ensure effective implementation of the CAADP Strategy and Action Plan.

The case for post Malabo Agenda implementation guidelines

The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), developed by the African Union (AU) in 2003, marked a significant turning point for Africa’s agricultural development. CAADP’s objective was to transform agriculture into a key driver of economic growth, poverty reduction, and food security across the continent. Through a focus on increasing agricultural productivity and ensuring that agricultural development was aligned with national and regional priorities, CAADP sought to tackle Africa’s persistent challenges of hunger, malnutrition, and economic stagnation. In 2014, the Malabo Declaration was introduced as the second phase of CAADP implementation, with a new set of ambitious targets aimed at ending hunger and halving poverty by 2025. The declaration reinforced the importance of agricultural-led growth and committed African governments to specific goals, including increasing agricultural productivity by at least 6% annually and allocating at least 10% of national budgets to agriculture. It also emphasized sustainable agriculture, resilience to climate change, and equitable access to resources, particularly for women and smallholder farmers.

Comprehensive mapping of food systems is necessary to guide transformation efforts: The case of Rwanda

Rwanda has made significant strides in improving its food systems, with notable progress in reducing malnutrition and stunting, especially among children. Stunting rates declined from over 50% in the early 2000s to 33% by 2020, reflecting the government’s commitment to addressing food insecurity and enhancing nutrition through a range of agricultural and public health initiatives. The country’s Crop Intensification Program (CIP) has played a pivotal role in increasing agricultural productivity, especially for staple crops like maize, beans, and Irish potatoes, which has contributed to better food availability across the country. Despite these achievements, substantial challenges persist. Almost 19% of households still face food insecurity, with the highest prevalence in rural areas. Additionally, malnutrition continues to affect vulnerable populations, with anemia rates among women of reproductive age at 37%, signaling gaps in nutrition security. Environmental concerns, including soil degradation, water scarcity, and climate change, further complicate efforts to sustain agricultural productivity. Approximately 40% of Rwanda’s land is affected by soil erosion, and shifting climate patterns pose increasing risks to agricultural yields. These challenges indicate the need for a more strategic, research-based approach to understanding and transforming Rwanda’s food system.

Farmers brace for a new round of trade wars

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take up residence at the White House for the second time, US farmers nervously await what is in store for the agricultural sector, particularly in trade. In 2018 and 2019, US agriculture suffered from collateral damage during the previous Trump administration as the president’s unilateral actions on trade against foreign suppliers of US imports had serious repercussions for US agricultural exports.

IFPRI’s approach to research

The International Food Policy Research Institute provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end malnutrition in low-and middle-income countries and has played a vital role in informing policies, programs, and investments since its founding in 1975. This document provides a brief introduction to IFPRI and sets out how we approach our research, along with the scope of our current work.

Can rights-based conditional cash transfers improve children’s nutrition at scale? Evidence from India’s maternity benefit program

This study evaluates the impact of India’s Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana (PMMVY), a large-scale conditional cash transfer (CCT) program targeting women during their first birth, on child nutrition. Using National Family Health Survey (NFHS) data from 2005 to 2021, we assess changes in growth for 296,782 children under five years old before and after PMMVY implementation. To address potential biases, we employ a quasi-experimental approach with a Triple Difference analysis, comparing first- to second-born children of CCT and non-CCT mothers. We find that potential exposure to PMMVY is associated with improvements in weight-for-age and height-for-age z-scores. These effects likely operate through increased pregnancy registration, antenatal care, and immunizations. PMMVY is cost-effective, with a short-run benefit-cost ratio of 1.35. This study underscores the importance of CCT programs targeting mothers in enhancing child nutrition in low- and middle-income countries.

Perceived constraints to healthy diets: Evidence from agrifood system assessments in rural South Asia

The healthfulness of diets in South Asia is limited by socio-economic and public infrastructure challenges. Perceptions about food such as availability, accessibility, desirability, and convenience can impact food choice and ultimately diets. However, there are limited tools to understand consumers’ perceptions of these factors and if perceptions relate to actual food intake. Using a novel tool administered across five rural districts in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal, we quantify the association between food perceptions and food intake. A Likert scale (agree, neutral, disagree) was used to capture respondents’ perceptions about seven food choice drivers (affordability, accessibility, desirability, convenience, food quality, food safety, availability) for a list of six common foods. For each food, principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to identify latent “drivers”. The association between these and diets (using 24-hour dietary recall data) was estimated using multivariable regression analysis. There was considerable heterogeneity across countries with respect to the relative importance of food choice drivers and diet quality. There is a need to measure and understand individual food perceptions that drive food choice to help develop policies that promote healthier food choices.

Intrahousehold dynamics in South Asia: Understanding the relationships between women’s empowerment, task sharing, decision making, and diets among women

Despite the growing evidence on the role of women in agriculture and nutrition, interlinkages between empowerment among women, gendered task allocation, and nutrition are rarely studied together. Using data from the Transforming Agrifood Systems in South Asia (TAFSSA), a household survey that used a plate-to-farm assessment approach in three countries (Bangladesh, India and Nepal), the paper investigates the associations between empowerment of women, gendered task allocation, decision-making among women, and diets among women. Our findings reveal complex and context-specific differences in associations between task allocation, decision-making and empowerment among. While agency in decision-making among women is positively associated with empowerment in all three country contexts, associations between gendered task allocation and empowerment vary. The share of tasks performed by females, particularly in agriculture and food preparation) is positively associated with empowerment among women, but the proportion of tasks shared equally between males and females does not necessarily empower women. Gendered task allocation and empowerment among women are not significantly associated with diets of women in the three countries, owing to the greater importance of broader socio-economic and context-specific factors such as wealth, education, and regional factors in explaining the variance in dietary outcomes. These findings highlight the need to take a holistic approach that addresses gender norms and household resource constraints to improving empowerment of women, while also addressing local accessibility/availability of nutritious foods to enhance the quality of diets of women.

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, December 2024

Highlights Retail prices of maize increased by 15 percent in December. Maize prices were lowest in the Northern region, where informal imports from Tanzania enter the country, and increased southward. At the market exchange rate, retail prices of maize in Malawi were similar to those in Zambia and lower than in Mozambique and Zimbabwe.

Rural diets under pressure: Food environments and their influence on food choice in South Asia

The rapid South Asia rural transformation, driven by globalization and industrialization, has introduced a complex interaction between traditional and modern food systems. This study characterizes rural food environments in five districts across Bangladesh, India, and Nepal, focusing on how affordability, availability, accessibility, desirability, and convenience shape dietary choices and quality. Through extensive household and market surveys, we find rural diets characterized by low intake of healthy foods and moderate to high consumption of unhealthy options, influenced by a lack of affordability and the desirability and widespread availability of cheap ultra-processed products in rural markets. Snacking plays a significant role in shaping dietary patterns, promoting both dietary diversity and unhealthy food consumption. These findings provide essential insights for designing interventions tailored to rural food systems, supporting efforts to improve nutrition and health outcomes in rapidly changing markets.

Use of fertilizers in agriculture sector of Tajikistan

Tajikistan’s heavily relies on imported mineral fertilizers. Fertilizers, particularly nitrogen and phosphorus, are crucial for enhancing crop yields, increasing income and supporting farmers’ livelihoods. However, limited access to this input, along with rising global fertilizer prices, has restricted farmers’ ability to fully benefit from them. Particularly due to the result of this, agricultural productivity has been constrained, affecting food security and farmer incomes. Key challenges • Fertilizer application rates, particularly for both mineral and organic types, remain below the recommended norms set by the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA). Farmers across the country, especially smallholders, struggle to apply adequate amounts of fertilizers due to high costs and limited access. • Access to high-quality mineral fertilizers is further hindered by the country’s dependency on imports, which can exacerbate local price volatility. • Fertilizer use varies across different regions of Tajikistan. In Khatlon and Sughd regions fertilizer use is higher, particularly for cotton and vegetable farming. However, in other regions fertilizer use remains comparatively low, limiting agricultural productivity. • While fertilizers are essential for improving crop yields, excessive or inefficient use can lead to environmental risks, including soil salinity and degradation. Careful management of fertilizer use is needed to prevent harm to biodiversity and soil ecosystems, particularly in regions with intensive farming, such as those producing cotton. Recommended actions • Promote training on organic fertilizer benefits and sustainable practices like composting. Support better manure management to increase organic fertilizer application. • Abolishing or reducing value added tax and import tariffs for fertilizers could make them more cost-effective and attainable for farmers. • Introduce targeted subsidies for mineral fertilizers to make fertilizers more affordable and accessible. • Promote efficient fertilizer use and broader sustainable practices like soil conservation and integrated pest management to ensure long-term productivity.

Agricultural advisory services in Tajikistan: Private sector role

Agricultural advisory services (AAS) may play a crucial role in supporting Tajikistan’s food security and rural development by helping farmers to increase productivity, adopt new technologies, and access to the markets. Despite their significance, AAS remain underdeveloped with limited coverage and accessibility. Strengthening AAS through government support, private sector engagement, and in partnership with NGOs can address the challenges and contribute to sustainable growth of the sector. Key challenges and developments • Limited coverage and accessibility: In 2021, around 5 percent of Tajikistan’s farms and 14 percent of arable land benefited from professional AAS, while over 90 percent of farmers need these services. • Resource constraints: Financial needs and limited number of AAS providers are the main constraints to scaling-up the services to meet nationwide farmers’ needs. • Positive impacts of current initiatives: Despite limited resources, Sarob and Neksigol Mushovir private and non-profit cooperatives through providing AAS to the farmers contributes on yield increases across the country, at the same time reduce an irrigation water use. • Digital innovation: Neksigol Mushovir’s AgroSpace platform, with mobile applications, e-library resources, and online consultations, has significantly improved access to agricultural knowledge. • Climate-smart agriculture: Sarob’s initiatives in climate-smart practices, such as zero tillage and water-saving technologies, have reduced inputs use and an increased crops yield. Recommended actions • Expand institutional support: Public support to scaling up of the AAS is crucial. • Enhance public-private partnerships: Encourage collaboration between public institutions, private sector, and NGOs to pool resources and knowledge is vital to expanding AAS to the farmers. • Enhance digital solutions for AAS: Invest in digital platforms to provide accessible, low-cost advisory services, real-time market information, and climate adaptation tools to the farmers. • Focus on climate resilience: Scale up climate-smart agricultural practices and provide training in water management, pest control, and sustainable farming techniques to enhance productivity under changing climate conditions.

Agrifood trade in Tajikistan

Despite being an agrarian economy, Tajikistan heavily relies on agrifood imports. Agrifood imports have increased sharply in recent years, while export growth has been modest. This brief outline the key trends in Tajikistan’s agrifood trade and provides policy recommendations to reduce import dependence and boost domestic agricultural production. Key trends in agrifood trade • Between 2000 and 2023, Tajikistan’s agrifood imports grew 16 times, with vegetable products (primarily cereals) and prepared foodstuffs (sugar, animal fodder, flour, oil) accounting for 83 percent of total imports. • While imports have surged, agrifood exports have grown by only 2.2 times during the same period. Exports remain concentrated in a few products, with dry fruits and nuts making up 75 percent of total agrifood exports in 2023. • Processed food imports have significantly increased, reflecting both changing consumer preferences and domestic production gaps. This shift, particularly in urban areas, underscores the growing role of imports in meeting demand for food products beyond basic staples. • Tajikistan’s agrifood imports and exports are dominated by trade with Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. These long-standing trade ties reflect logistical advantages and shared histories. However, this reliance on a narrow set of trading partners limits the potential to access new, more lucrative markets. Recommended actions • Tajikistan needs to focus on modernizing its agricultural sector to raise productivity and lessening the country’s reliance on imports. • Strengthening Tajikistan’s agrifood processing sector will help reduce the growing dependency on processed food imports. Investments in food processing infrastructure and the promotion of local agribusinesses could meet the rising demand for processed products. • Diversifying the range of exported agrifood products is crucial. Developing processing industries and value added products can help reduce dependency on a few commodities and open doors to new export markets. • While CIS countries are important trading partners, Tajikistan should explore opportunities to expand market access outside the region. Improving the quality of agrifood exports and meeting international standards will enable the country to participate in more global value chains and trade agreements.

Assessing food acquisition, preparation, and consumption practices in South Asia: A systematic review of assessment tools

Assessing behaviors related to food choice at individual- and household-levels is essential for improving household diets, but assessment tools are limited. We conducted a systematic review to identify gaps in existing assessment tools for food acquisition, preparation, and household consumption practices in South Asia, wherein diets are rapidly changing, and triple burden of malnutrition is emerging. Systematic search of three academic databases (PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science Core Collection) using pre-defined keywords were undertaken to identify studies assessing food acquisition, food preparation, and household consumption practices in South Asia, published in English between 2000 and December 2023. Following PRISMA guidelines, two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts, and full texts based on the inclusion criteria, and extracted data on study characteristics and the assessment tools used to examine the food choice behaviors. Of 11,288 unique articles identified, 46 were included for synthesis. Food acquisition behaviors were assessed by 25 studies, food preparation by eight studies and household consumption practices by 26 studies. Most studies used quantitative methods (n=30), some used qualitative (n=13), and few used mixed methods (n=3), and varied by type of behavior assessed. Likert scales were the most widely used tools of quantitative assessments, while semi-structured interviews were the most common for qualitative assessments. Across the 46 studies, 59 different tools were used to assess food-related behaviors and only 14 studies claimed using validated tools and many studies did not include the full tool in the text or supplement (n=22). Our review highlights the need for expanding food choice behavior assessments to include the less-studied populations such as exploring young children and adolescents’ food choice behaviors and developing a contextually adaptable repository of validated tools to advance our understanding of food choice behaviors in various settings.

The political economy of food self sufficiency policies and food security in African countries

Food security deteriorated in Africa during the past decade, and the number of undernourished people has been increasing since 2010. The prevalence of undernourishment is now above pre-pandemic levelsat 9.7% compared with 7.2% in 2019, and Africa reports the highest level in the world. External factors, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have contributed to this increase Projections show that almost 600 million people in Africa will be chronically undernourished in 2030. Moreover, Africa is not on track for SDG2, eradicate hunger by 2030. To achieve food security and reduce the number of undernourished people, many policymakers are advocating for food self-sufficiency. Relying on local production and promoting it through various policy measures, including restrictive trade policies, appears to many to be a natural solution. Yet, there has been a long-standing debate among analysts as to whether trade restrictions are a good strategy, especially in Africa, to achieve food security. The proponents of food self-sufficiency argue that trade liberalization increases food dependency (and import bills) and makes consumers vulnerable to external shocks in food availability, as well as exposing them to unhealthy foods. They advocate for stimulating local production with subsidies and trade restrictions. For the opponents, opening borders to international trade is a guarantee of cheap and easy access to diversified food products. Furthermore, by partially decoupling local markets from domestic shocks, trade can also help stabilize domestic food markets. This report contributes to that debate. Using both qualitative and quantitative analysis, we reach the conclusion that food self-sufficiency is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for food security. Food security is a multidimensional concept, and only two dimensions– availability and utilization—seem to be affected by food self-sufficiency in Africa. Also, while public support to agriculture can help achieve food self-sufficiency, its impact is not linear, and beyond a certain threshold, diminishing returns are observed. Overall, different approaches can achieve food security, and there is no “one-size-fits-all strategy.” International or regional trade can contribute to food security and stabilize domestic food markets, as regional production is usually less volatile than domestic supply.

Agriculture sector reform and sectoral programs in Tajikistan

Tajikistan’s agricultural sector, despite its challenging environment and limited natural resources, remains a vital component of the national economy, providing employment and income for a significant portion of the rural population. However, the sector faces critical challenges including inefficient land use, outdated farming practices, inadequate infrastructure, and the lingering influence of Soviet-era agricultural systems. Since the early 1990s, Tajikistan has embarked on a series of agricultural reforms aimed at improving productivity and sustainability. Key reforms include land redistribution, water sector restructuring, and the adoption of policies to modernize the agricultural sector. The “Agriculture Reform Program” (ARP) for 2012-2020 was a major initiative targeting structural changes in land and water management, as well as the reorientation of the Ministry of Agriculture from a central planning body to a facilitator and regulator.

What adults in rural South Asia eat and when they eat it: Evidence from Bangladesh, India, and Nepal

Background Poor diets pose a threat to all forms of malnutrition and diet-related noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). Data on dietary patterns are scarce in South Asia. Objectives We sought to describe overall diet quality, intake of foods and food groups, and eating occasions among adults in rural South Asia. Methods Data were from five districts across Bangladesh (n=2,802 individuals), India (n=1,672), and Nepal (n=1,451). The Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) application was used to measure intake of foods on the previous day, with each food tagged to an eating occasion. Diet quality and the risk of diet-related noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) were described using GDQS total (0–49), GDQS positive (0–32) and GDQS negative (0–17) metrics for overall, healthy, and unhealthy food intake respectively. Results Diet quality was low, with similar scores across countries for GDQS total (17-19 depending on country), GDQS positive (7–8) and GDQS negative (10–12), indicating low intake of healthy foods as the main contributor to poor diets. Over 90% of adults had levels of GQDS scores associated with moderate/high risk for diet-related NCDs, with the proportion at high risk in Bangladesh being 2-3x higher than other countries. Across sites, intake of refined grains (white rice), sweets (sugar, biscuits), and white tubers (potatoes) was common. One-third of adults did not eat breakfast in Nepal, and snacking was twice as common in males (63%) versus females (33%) in Bangladesh. Conclusions These findings highlight the need to improve diets in rural South Asia and may help inform interventions targeting food intake patterns.