Publications and Datasets

Estimating the direct and indirect effects of improved seed adoption on yields: Evidence from DNA-fingerprinting, crop cuts, and self-reporting in Ethiopia

Farmers’ adoption of improved crop varieties could increase yields in low-income countries. However, the presence of measurement error in household surveys poses a challenge to estimating true returns. Using the 2018/19 Ethiopia Socio-economic Survey, we analyze the impacts of how three sources of measurement error: misperceptions of seed varieties, land area, and quantities harvested affect maize yields and input use. These data include DNA-fingerprinting of seed, GPS plot size information, and crop cuts that we compare to farmers’ self-reported estimates of these measures. Results indicate that the measurement error in self-reported seed variety adoption, especially from farmers who did not know they were using improved maize varieties, attenuates their estimated yield gains by 25 percentage points on average. The enhanced genetics of improved seed varieties accounts for a 41-percentage point yield increase over non-improved varieties, and increased input use accounts for a 30-percentage point gain for improved varieties on average. JEL classification: D13, O13, N57, Q12, Q16

Fertilizer policy reforms in the midst of crisis: Evidence from Rwanda

Fertilizer subsidies are a prominent feature of many agricultural development strategies in sub-Saharan Africa, but few countries have the necessary data to make rapid decisions about their management in the face of exogenous shocks. This was the case in Rwanda following the rapid increase in international fertilizer prices in 2021–22. Working within a constrained fiscal space that followed the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government of Rwanda aimed to revise its fertilizer subsidy system to accommodate higher fertilizer import prices without compromising progress against its agricultural growth targets. This paper explores both the economic analysis and policy process that shaped decision-making around Rwanda’s fertilizer subsidy system during the period 2020–23. The paper centers on the design and application of a microsimulation model that estimated—almost in real time—the impact of increased fertilizer prices on crop production during this period. It then explores the policy outcomes that followed, emphasizing the scope for subsidy reductions even in the midst of crisis, the critical importance of strengthening agricultural data systems, and lessons for countries facing similar challenges.

Inclusive and gender-transformative seed systems: Concepts and applications

CONTEXT Seed is vital to the nutrition and livelihoods of millions of women and men small-scale farmers in low- and middle-income countries. Seed systems interventions can significantly enhance food security and nutrition by accelerating the adoption of improved varieties and the use of quality seed, which in turn increase the rate of genetic gain, productivity, and household welfare. These interventions can be particularly effective when advancing gender equality by supporting women’s empowerment and addressing discriminatory gender norms. However, there is relatively little evidence on the ways in which seed systems can be an entry point for advancing gender equality by transforming discriminatory gender norms. OBJECTIVES We develop and illustrate a gender transformative approach applied to seed sector development. Our first objective is to provide a framework to better understand how seed systems interventions can contribute to gender equality by (1) integrating gender-accommodative and gender-transformative approaches; and (2) assessing their gendered impacts. Our second objective is to apply this framework to a particular innovation – gender messaging via information and communications technologies (ICTs) – and explore how seed system interventions can be made more gender-transformative. METHODS We first reviewed the existing literature to develop a framework that defines gender-transformative and accommodative seed system interventions and their impacts. We then synthesized lessons learned from the application of this framework to case studies from Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda that used ICTs that contained gendered components. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION We discuss how a gender-accommodative approach aims for gender considerations to improve seed systems, while a gender-transformative approach flips the goal around by aiming at progress toward gender equality through seed systems. We find growing evidence on the potential of gender-transformative seed systems interventions to influence positively the empowerment of women and also men, and to create more conducive gender norms, as shown by three case studies on ICT enablers. These case studies also show that accommodative and transformative approaches are often complementary. SIGNIFICANCE We introduce research questions that research and development practitioners can ask to develop accommodative or transformative approaches in seed system interventions, and show the potential of both approaches to progress toward gender equality. The case studies indicate the feasibility of gender-transformative, ICT-enabled seed system interventions, with clear indications of the potential for low-cost adaptation at scale. However, the transformative potential of these interventions requires careful consideration of messaging content, format, and context, as well as strategic public investment and strong political will.

The full lethal impact of massive cuts to international food aid

Adapting the Women’s Empowerment in Nutrition Index: Lessons from Kenya

Women face a disproportionate burden of malnutrition and food insecurity. Research has shown that women’s empowerment can buffer women against nutritional problems. This paper contributes to ongoing efforts to measure women’s empowerment that are both context-sensitive and universal, focusing on the recently developed Women’s Empowerment in Nutrition Index (WENI). Earlier research has shown it is both a valid construct and positively related to dietary and nutritional outcomes of women in South Asia. We establish that WENI is generalizable to agropastoral and pastoral Kenya, an area with substantially different livelihoods, food system, norms, and institutions than South Asia. We find that a locally contextualized WENI is strongly associated with women’s body mass index and dietary diversity as well as household level food insecurity. We also present findings for two shorter variations of WENI: an abbreviated WENI (A-WENI) and a cross context WENI (CC-WENI). A-WENI contains a small subset of WENI indicators identified using machine learning with South Asian data and therefore is context-specific. CC-WENI does not contain indicators specific to the validation context. We find that they perform comparably well with caveats. Thus, as use of WENI expands we recommend adapting WENI for in-depth analyses of women’s nutritional empowerment; using CC-WENI for cross-context comparisons; and using A-WENI for rapid appraisals of community level progress in a given context.

Dataset on the patterns of livelihood diversification in farming systems of the Eastern Gangetic Plains of South Asia

The Eastern Gangetic Plains (EGP) region, characterized by smallholder-dominated farming, is experiencing rapid socio-economic and environmental changes. To enhance resilience, income stability, and food security, smallholders are increasingly diversifying their livelihoods away from traditional agriculture. However, the patterns and drivers of this diversification remain poorly understood. This study, utilizing data from the Rupantar project, aims to elucidate these patterns, identify key drivers, and assess the impacts on productivity, profitability, nutrition, and inclusion. A mixed-methods approach was employed, including a baseline survey of 1,400 households across India, Nepal, and Bangladesh and analysis using the Simpson’s Index of Diversity (SID). Fractional regression models revealed moderate diversification levels across the EGP with significant geographical and contextual variability. Key drivers included access to resources, gender, education, market access, and institutional support, with differences observed across countries and diversification types. Factors such as non-ownership of irrigation pumps, female household headship, and engagement in off-farm activities were significant predictors of higher diversification. The study found that diversification can enhance income security, nutritional outcomes, and environmental sustainability, although impacts vary by diversification type.

Adoption or placement in foster care and catch-up in linear growth and development: A meta-analysis of individual participant data

Background The ability of children to recover from linear growth retardation, often referred to as catch-up growth, has intrigued researchers for many decades. Whether adoption from a low-to a high-income setting, which provides a comprehensive improvement in the conditions that cause children to not grow well, leads to catch-up growth is unknown. Objective We estimated the association of adoption (or placement in foster care) with catch-up in linear growth and child development before 5 years of age. Methods We conducted a two-stage meta-analysis using individual participant data for linear growth. We obtained study-specific and subgroup estimates and pooled the estimates using random-effects models. Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the robustness of our findings. A review of child development outcomes was conducted. Results We included 485 children under 5 years of age from 9 adoption studies. At baseline, children had a mean age of 15.8 mo and a length deficit of 3.9 cm. Adoption reduced this gap by 77% or 3.0 cm (95% CI: 1.9-4.1 cm)(mean age 32.3 mo). Catch-up growth was found in both girls (3.6 cm; 95% CI 2.9-4.2 cm) and boys (2.5 cm; 95% CI: 1.9-3.1 cm) and in children adopted after the age of 24 mo (2.2 cm, 95% CI 0.6-3.7 cm). The sensitivity analyses did not change any of the substantive findings. The magnitude of catch-up in child development (mean reduction in deficit of 46%) was smaller than in linear growth. Conclusions Catch-up in linear growth in children under five is biologically possible when the environment is improved profoundly and comprehensively. Partial reversal of the accumulated height deficit was more likely than recovery in developmental outcomes which highlights the need to ensure all children grow and develop in environments that prevent deficits from occurring rather than trying to correct them.

Evolution of intimate partner violence impacts from cash transfers, food transfers, and behaviour change communication: Mixed-method experimental evidence from a nine-year post-programme follow-up in Bangladesh

Cash or food transfers can reduce intimate partner violence (IPV), but knowledge gaps remain on how impacts evolve over time, and the role of complementary ‘plus’ activities and contextual factors. We conducted a mixed-method analysis of how the Transfer Modality Research Initiative in Bangladesh affected IPV over time. The programme was implemented from 2012 to 2014, following a randomised controlled trial (RCT) design, across Northern and Southern Bangladesh. Intervention arms included monthly cash or food transfers, with or without complementary nutrition behaviour change communication (BCC). We estimate post-programme impacts on IPV using quantitative data collected in 2014–2015, 2018, and 2022, and combine this with qualitative data collected in 2023 to explore how and why IPV impacts evolved over time and the role of contextual factors. In the North, combining cash with BCC led to sustained IPV reductions in each post-programme round, while cash alone reduced IPV in 2022 but not the previous two rounds; food transfers showed no post-programme impacts. In the South, combining food with BCC led to post-programme IPV reductions in 2014–2015; no intervention sustained IPV reductions thereafter. Sustained IPV reductions are primarily driven by improved household economic security and emotional well-being. Other pathways – family relationships (including in-laws’ roles), women’s empowerment, and social and community support – contributed to changing couples’ relationships during the programme but became less salient after the programme ended. Contextual factors, including demographic changes, climate-related changes, external projects and norms condoning IPV appear to influence the sustainability of impacts. Results suggest that ‘plus’ programming was key to sustaining IPV impacts soon after the interventions, but less so by nine years post-programme, as economic security increasingly drove impacts. More mixed method research is needed from the outset to unpack if and how pathways to IPV reduction can be sustained in different contexts over time.

The unmet financial needs of intermediary firms within agri-food value chains in Uganda and Bangladesh

JEL Codes: L14, L81, O13, Q13

Aid budget cuts have dire consequences for malnutrition among the world’s most vulnerable children

Recent aid budgets announced by governments in the US and Europe could cut 2.3 million children off from lifesaving severe acute malnutrition treatment, resulting in 369,000 additional child deaths annually. The US government cuts alone will cause an estimated additional 163,500 annual child deaths that could have been prevented with funding for adequate treatment.

Guilty pleasures: Expenditure elasticities of ultra-processed foods and paid meals in India

Armed actors, including militaries and paramilitaries, are heavily entrenched in the agrifood systems of several low- and middle-income countries, often resulting in negative implications for both agricultural transformation and democratic transitions. However, the role of armed actors is overlooked in the scholarship on the governance of agricultural value chains. To address this gap, this paper focuses on the role of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan’s agrifood system. Through over 50 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, the paper traces how the SAF and RSF initially gained their foothold in the agrifood system and how they interact with each other, and the private sector across diverse value chains. We argue that these actors decide to pursue investments in certain value chains depending on the extent to which the private sector is already involved and the degree of technical complexity required to attain more profitable product upgrading. Based on these considerations, we uncover four strategies used by SAF and RSF in different value chains: exclusive capture and rent-extraction, competition through biased licensing and quota allocations, acquiescence to existing private competitors when value-addition is too complex, and innovation when potential is high and the private sector is absent. We show how these strategies manifest across value chains as diverse as livestock, wheat, gum Arabic, and horticulture, with secondary applications to other commodities. Given that economic competition between SAF and RSF was a major factor in the outbreak of the 2023 armed conflict, identifying how these strategies emerged and manifested not only contributes to the literature on business-state relations but also expands insights about the political economy antecedents of large-scale conflict.

The impact of the African continental Free Trade Agreement: A continentwide macroeconomic assessment and distributional analysis in Nigeria and Rwanda

Africa remains the least open continent in the world, with high trade restrictions for both intra- and extra-African partners. These restrictions include both tariff and nontariff measures, as well as high transportation costs due to poor infrastructure. However, previous studies have highlighted the crucial role of intra-regional trade in boosting national economies, promoting development, and enhancing food security by increasing the availability of food and stabilizing domestic markets. In particular, informal cross-border trade, which is pervasive in Africa, contributes to food security, although further research is needed on its magnitude. This research aims to enhance the understanding of current and future trends in Africa’s food systems, focusing on continental) trade and its impact on national economies and markets. Its objective is to assess the impact of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), the most ambitious regional trade agreement in Africa, on national economies and markets. The study uses state-of-the-art tools, includes informal cross-border trade of agricultural products, and considers realistic scenarios of trade liberalization. The study finds that the AfCFTA’s impact will be positive, although limited. Because most African countries are already trading under preferential regimes within regional economic communities (RECs), AfCFTA primarily affects trade flows outside of these communities. We observe traditional trade diversion effects from partners outside of Africa (up to −1.68 percent) and trade creation within the continent (up to 18.48 percent). Like the agreement’s macroeconomic impacts on gross domestic product growth and trade, its effects on poverty are also limited, with more positive effects in Rwanda than in Nigeria, the two countries analyzed in the microsimulation. A gender bias is present in the results: Female-headed house-holds benefit less from the agreement than male-headed households. Given the continent’s high trans-portation costs, significant gains can occur by reducing transport margins in addition to implementing the AfCFTA. In that case, the positive results are amplified, while the negative effects are dampened. Because AfCFTA implementation is still in early stages, more information is needed to fine-tune the results. First, it is important to examine the assumptions behind the selection of sensitive and excluded products. In the absence of official lists, which are not available for most countries, the final lists may differ from the selection made in this report, although the method we use has proven to be effective for past agreements. In addition, rules of origin and other nontariff measures will play a significant role in the future of the agreement, affecting the results and likely changing the distribution of gains and losses.

Synopsis: The dynamic impact of alternative livestock sector interventions and spending options in Rwanda

This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of various livestock interventions—feed, breeding, and health—and budget allocation strategies (balanced, feed-oriented, breeding-oriented, and health oriented) in the context of Rwanda’s economic and livestock systems. Using an economic and livestock systems integrated framework, the research highlights moderate yet sustained impacts on agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and significant improvements in the livestock sector. Breeding interventions have the largest cumulative effect on agricultural GDP, while health measures, particularly dewormers, yield long-term gains in livestock productivity. Under the balanced scenario, breeding contributes significantly to both meat and milk sector GDP, while feed interventions show a smaller impact overall. The model estimates the economic and livestock systems over a period of five years (t1-t5) from a base year at t0, which corresponds to the Fifth Structural Transformation in Agriculture (PSTA5) period.

The double burden of food and water insecurity: Implications for health, equality, and policy

Food and water insecurity reflect a lack of reliable access to sufficient, safe, and affordable food and water to meet basic human needs. Both have significant impacts on nutrition, physical and mental health, learning, and family cohesion; however, their combined effects remain understudied. With a high co-occurrence observed across numerous low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), these insecurities are rooted in systemic factors, such as poverty, climate-related environmental stressors, resource scarcity, inadequate public infrastructure, weak governance, and conflict. Wang et al examined the association of the co-occurrence of food and water insecurity with functional disabilities in Ecuadorian adults. This novel research builds on emerging evidence on the intersectional implications of food and water insecurity for human well-being.

Farmers’ pesticide use, disposal behavior, and pre-harvest interval: A case study from Nigeria

In Sub-Saharan Africa, small farmers rely heavily rely on synthetic pesticides, the overuse of which poses significant risks to human health, the environment, and food safety. Yet detailed empirical evidence on knowledge of and the knowledge and drivers of pesticide management practices remains scarce, limiting insights for policymakers and development practitioners. To address this gap, we leveraged on data collected from 1556 tomato producers in Northern Nigeria to investigate the determinants of pesticide use behavior using a sequential-exploratory mixed-method approach. We examined a broader range of pest management-related practices than prior literature, including safety equipment usage, pesticide disposal methods, and adherence to pre-harvest intervals (PHIs)-, which is the intervals between the last pesticide application and the crop harvest. We found substantial noncompliance with the recommended practices: 45% of farmers reuse empty pesticide containers for other purposes, 14% discard them on the farm, 15% burn containers in open fires, and 40% harvest tomatoes within 1–5 days after pesticide application, violating the 7-day PHI guideline. These findings suggest that many tomato farmers adopt unsafe practices, which have adverse implications for their health, the environment, and the safety of food available to consumers. We show that training on pesticide disposal and midstream market channels (e.g., wholesalers and aggregators) are strongly correlated with improved pesticide handling and higher PHI compliance. Overall, our results underscore the need for targeted training programs to enhance farmers’ awareness of safe pesticide application, disposal practices, and PHI adherence. These efforts should be complemented by stronger regulatory frameworks and mechanisms to align farmer pesticide use practices with consumer preferences for safe products, as observed by in the higher PHI adherence among farmers selling to midstream actors.

Contract Farming in Developing Countries: The promise and its perils

Contract farming is an institutional arrangement between farmers and businesses to produce and transact agricultural commodities at predetermined prices and conditions, and it has recently received a heightened amount of attention despite being a relatively old phenomenon. A new wave of agricultural industrialization and the emergence of large-scale food retailing in developing countries may be precipitating the unprecedented shift in favor of contract farming. This open access book identifies the methodological differences across disciplines that have generated a false binary in discussions of contract farming. The author explains the importance of adopting a more integrated theoretical perspective, providing insights into the ways in which this can reconcile conflicting positions. Given the immense diversity of contracting schemes, commodities and contexts—as well as the substantial regional differences in contract farming experiences across a range of outcomes—a syncretic understanding of contract farming is essential to the evaluation of the promise and perils of contract farming. The resulting book proposes a way forward that is holistic in nature, framing contract farming within a comparative institutional analysis so that it can better accommodate multidisciplinary priorities.

Tajikistan’s agrifood system: The past performance and future opportunities and challenges

This study analyzes the past performance and future opportunities and challenges of Tajikistan’s agrifood system (AFS). The study measures the current size and structure of AFS and its historical contribution to economic growth and transformation through a data-driven exercise. A forward-looking economywide model is used to assess the effectiveness of future AFS growth (led by agricultural productivity gains in different value chains) in promoting multiple development outcomes. The findings of the study indicate that AFS transformation is an important part of Tajikistan’s economic transformation and structural change. Because of lower growth contributions from AFS’s off-farm components as well as fewer farm workers moving from primary agriculture to off-farm activities within AFS, Tajikistan’s AFS did not grow as quickly as the broader economy. Expanding off-farm activities to boost on-farm productivity growth remains a challenge for sustainable transformation of Tajikistan’s AFS. Using an economywide model, we find that there is no single value chain group that would most effectively achieve all desired development outcomes including broad economic growth, job creation, declining poverty, and improved diets. Livestock value chains, however, have the most potential to contribute to multiple development outcomes, particularly to dietary improvement, and these value chains also performed impressively during the study period. Moreover, most cattle and ruminants are owned by household farms, and their growth could contribute to broader agricultural transformation. The maize value chain also ranks high in the model-based comparison, but it seems to only modestly contribute to job creation and diet quality and had performed disappointingly during the study period. While growth in livestock and maize value chains face a series of challenges and constraints, promoting them together seems to offer an effective way to broadly achieve important development outcomes.

Papua New Guinea Rural Household Survey, 2023

The Papua New Guinea Rural Household Survey (2023) collected detailed household-level data on agricultural production, food and non-food consumption and expenditure, and livelihood strategies across 14 provinces, covering communities in the highlands, lowlands, and islands of Papua New Guinea (PNG). The survey was designed using a purposive sampling strategy based on defined agro-ecological zones, which allows for the analysis of key factors influencing rural households and communities. It is important to note that the survey is not nationally representative; however, given the careful random selection of survey areas, we expect that generalizable relationships between variables affecting socio-economic and other development outcomes in rural PNG communities will be consistently observed across representative samples and in this survey. These factors include those that contribute to more resilient local food systems, diversified employment opportunities, and improved household wellbeing. The survey encompasses 2,699 households in 270 communities, spanning five agroecological zones. It features detailed modules on a wide range of topics relevant to rural livelihoods, agricultural production, and household wellbeing.

Preferences for ecosystem payment programs in Papua New Guinea

We evaluate forest landholders’ preferences to enter a hypothetical Payment for Ecosystem Service (PES) contract (i.e., voluntary carbon credit contract) and assess the relative importance of different program attributes that influence forest landholder preference for such contracts. When evaluating the attractiveness of PES contracts for forest landholders, analysis suggests that on average, forest landholders are not inclined to enter a PES contract. However, when evaluating differences among households, a variety of characteristics shape the willingness to accept a PES contract, including:  Landholders that are aware of climate change impacts and those from communities that previously participated in forest protection programs are more likely to accept a PES contract.  Households that use forested land for commercial logging or hunting grounds are more inclined to accept a PES contract, viewing these contracts as an opportunity to protect forest goods and services.  Households that rely on forested land for timber harvesting for personal building purposes are less likely to join a PES program, viewing contracts as restrictive to personal land use needs. When assessing different levels of contract attributes (e.g., payment amount, forest area requirement, and contract length), analysis suggests that forest landholders are more likely to accept a contract that:  Offers higher financial incentives  Requires half of their forested land to be under contract (compared to all of their forested land). On average, forest landholders require an additional annual compensation of $39.07 USD (152 PGK) per hectare to accept PES contracts that require full forested land preservation compared to preserving half of their forested land.

Imperfect competition and asymmetric welfare effects of global price and productivity shocks: a CGE model analysis for Senegal

This article investigates the asymmetric effects of global price and productivity shocks on welfare in the context of imperfect competition. The primary objective is to understand how market concentration affects the transmission of economic shocks and their impacts on various households. A CGE model, calibrated on a 2014 social accounting matrix for Senegal, is used. The model features a trading sector operating under a Cournot oligopoly with increasing returns to scale. Two scenarios are simulated: a 15% increase in global import prices and a 10% increase in agricultural productivity, each considering different levels of market concentration. The findings reveal that higher global import prices reduce household well-being, a situation exacerbated by low market competition. In contrast, agricultural productivity gains enhance well-being, with these benefits amplified by greater competition. However, the wealthiest households in Dakar benefit from low competition due to their positions in oligopolistic companies. To maximize household well-being, economic policies should focus on strengthening market competition, particularly in the trading sector. Actions such as reducing entry barriers for new businesses and regulating anti-competitive practices can help mitigate the adverse effects of global price increases and amplify the benefits of agricultural productivity gains.

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, February 2025

Highlights  Retail prices of maize increased by 32 percent in February as a result of a similar decrease in the value of Malawi Kwacha on the informal market.  Maize prices were lowest in the Northern region, where informal imports from Tanzania enter the country, and increased southward.  At the market exchange rate, retail prices of maize in Malawi were similar to those in Zambia and Mozambique, but lower than in Zimbabwe.

Under the gun: Military and paramilitary actors in Sudan’s agri-food system

Armed actors, including militaries and paramilitaries, are heavily entrenched in the agrifood systems of several low- and middle-income countries, often resulting in negative implications for both agricultural transformation and democratic transitions. However, the role of armed actors is overlooked in the scholarship on the governance of agricultural value chains. To address this gap, this paper focuses on the role of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan’s agrifood system. Through over 50 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, the paper traces how the SAF and RSF initially gained their foothold in the agrifood system and how they interact with each other, and the private sector across diverse value chains. We argue that these actors decide to pursue investments in certain value chains depending on the extent to which the private sector is already involved and the degree of technical complexity required to attain more profitable product upgrading. Based on these considerations, we uncover four strategies used by SAF and RSF in different value chains: exclusive capture and rent extraction, competition through biased licensing and quota allocations, acquiescence to existing private competitors when value-addition is too complex, and innovation when potential is high and the private sector is absent. We show how these strategies manifest across value chains as diverse as livestock, wheat, gum Arabic, and horticulture, with secondary applications to other commodities. Given that economic competition between SAF and RSF was a major factor in the outbreak of the 2023 armed conflict, identifying how these strategies emerged and manifested not only contributes to the literature on business-state relations but also expands insights about the political economy antecedents of large-scale conflict.

Report on state-level training programme for FPOs in Odisha

This report summarizes the outcomes of two-day State-Level Training Program for Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs) for 3 batches held in Bhubaneswar, Odisha, from December 12-23, 2024. Organized by the Department of Agriculture & Farmer Empowerment (DAFE), Government of Odisha, in collaboration with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the CGIAR, the program aimed to enhance the knowledge and skills of FPO functionaries across the state. The training program, conducted across three batches, engaged approximately 131 participants, with a significant representation of women. The participants comprised CEOs and Board of Directors (BoD) members of FPOs from diverse districts of Odisha. The training curriculum was designed to address key areas of concern for FPOs, including FPO management, shareholder engagement, post-harvest management, certification, and market access. Experienced trainers, including Shri K.K. Jha and Shri Sujay Kar, along with researchers from IFPRI, delivered interactive sessions on these topics. The training program was well-received by the participants, with a strong emphasis on practical learning and interactive discussions. Key areas of interest for the participants included FPO management strategies, optimal shareholder numbers, post-harvest management practices, product certification, and exploring diverse marketing channels for their produce. This training program serves as a crucial step towards strengthening FPOs in Odisha by equipping them with the knowledge and skills necessary for sustainable growth and success. The insights and learnings gained from this program will be valuable in further enhancing the capacity of FPOs to contribute to the development of the agricultural sector in the state. The training program highlighted the critical role of Farmer Producer Organizations (FPOs) in improving farmer livelihoods and strengthening the agricultural sector in Odisha. It provided a valuable platform for FPO functionaries to enhance their knowledge and skills in key areas of FPO management, such as financial management, marketing, and governance. The program fostered peer learning and networking among FPO representatives from different parts of the state. Furthermore, it identified key areas of concern and priorities for FPOs in Odisha related to the size, composition and structure, and tried to put forward some workable strategies to further strengthen the FPO ecosystem in the state. This executive summary provides a concise overview of the FPO training program, its objectives, methodology, and key outcomes.

Co-occurrence of stunting and off-track early child development in low- and middle-income countries

Importance: Although children across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are increasingly surviving, many are not fully thriving. Both stunting and off-track early child development (ECD) hinder children’s potential to thrive. Objectives: To estimate the global prevalence of the co-occurrence of stunting and off-track ECD and explore its association with nurturing care and sociodemographic factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study pooled data from the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (2010-2020) on 173 416 children aged 36-59 months in 41 LMICs. Statistical analysis was conducted from February to December 2024. Exposure: Risk factors pertaining to inadequate nurturing care, low socioeconomic status, and other sociodemographic characteristics. Main Outcomes and Measures: Children were classified into 4 groups with respect to thriving: children who were stunted only (height-for-age z score <−2 SD), off-track ECD only (measured using the Early Childhood Development Index), both stunted and off-track ECD (co-occurrence), or neither. Results: In the pooled sample of 173 416 children, the mean (SD) child age was 47.1 (6.8) months, and 88 242 (50.9%) were boys. Approximately 1 in 6 children (17.0% [95% CI, 16.8%-17.2%]) were both stunted and had off-track ECD, 17.1% (95% CI, 16.9%-17.3%) were stunted only, 27.8% (95% CI, 27.6%-28.0%) had off-track ECD only, and 38.1% (95% CI, 37.9%-38.4%) were neither stunted nor had off-track ECD. Socioeconomic gradients were observed, with more co-occurrence in lower-income countries (18.2% [95% CI, 17.9%-18.6%]), poorer households (22.1% [95% CI, 21.7%-22.5%] for poorest wealth quintile), mothers with lower educational levels (20.8% [95% CI, 20.6%-21.0%] for primary education or less), and rural settings (19.3% [95% CI, 19.1%-19.6%]). Various indicators of inadequate nurturing care along with low socioeconomic status were associated with co-occurrence. The top 5 factors associated with co-occurrence were poorest wealth quintile (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 2.75; 95% CI, 2.53-2.99), no early childhood education (AOR, 2.22; 95% CI, 2.10-2.34), low maternal educational level (AOR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.37-1.51), no toys at home (AOR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.35-1.51), and diarrhea (AOR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.31-1.45). The associations of poor household wealth, no birth registration, and no early childhood education with co-occurrence were significantly larger than their associations with stunting only or off-track ECD only. Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study of young children in LMICs suggests that a significant proportion were both stunted and had off-track ECD. These findings underscore the need for multisectoral interventions that holistically target nutrition, health, and ECD risks to ensure that all children globally can thrive, especially those facing the double burden of stunting and off-track ECD.

Quality of routine health and nutrition data in Ethiopia: A systematic review

Background High-quality data are vital for informed decision-making, enhancing population health, and achieving comprehensive insights. However, there is limited understanding of the consistency and reliability of routine Health Management Information System (HMIS) including nutrition data across diverse regions in Ethiopia. This study systematically reviewed the existing literature to address these knowledge gaps. Methods We systematically searched PubMed, HINARI, and Google Scholar for studies published from 2015 onwards to assess HMIS, including nutrition data quality in Ethiopia. The evaluations focused on completeness, consistency, and timeliness metrics defined by the WHO. We included diverse regional studies without indicator restrictions, prioritized data quality metrics as primary outcomes, and explored qualitative reasons for poor data quality as secondary outcomes. Results Of the 1790 papers screened, 25 met the inclusion criteria. The completeness of reporting varied widely among studies (50%–100%), with only 21% (4 out of 19) exceeding 90%. The consistency ranged from 38.9% to 90.5%, with only 6% of studies reporting internal consistency above 90%. Other consistency issues included lack of external consistency, indicator discrepancies, and outliers. Timeliness ranged from 41.9% to 93.7%, with 54% of studies reporting below 80%. In addition to the lack of studies addressing nutrition data, the quality was no better than other components of HMIS. The major factors contributing to poor data quality were human resource shortages, insufficient capacity building, behavioural influences, and infrastructural deficits. Conclusion The HMIS including nutrition data in Ethiopia, exhibited deficiencies in completeness, consistency, and timeliness, which were largely, attributed to capacity and resource constraints. Interventions should prioritize resource allocation, staff training, supervision, and feedback mechanisms to enhance data quality, thereby improving decision-making processes and population health outcomes.

Armed conflict and gendered participation in agrifood systems: Survey evidence from 29 African countries

This paper provides empirical micro-level evidence on the gendered impacts of armed conflict on economic activity in agriculture and other sectors, combining large-N sex-disaggregated survey data with temporally and spatially disaggregated conflict event data from 29 African countries. We find that local conflict exposure is only weakly related to labour-force participation, but strongly reduces the total number of hours worked and increases engagement in the agricultural sector. These net impacts exist for both men and women. However, the reduction in hours worked is significantly greater among men, while the increase in agricultural activity is significantly greater among women. In the longer term, impacts of conflict on employment two years later are stronger when no more conflict ensues than if further conflict occurs, challenging the widespread idea of one-off conflict shocks fading away over time and suggesting that labour markets adapt to and absorb lasting conflict situations. Different types of conflict event have qualitatively similar impacts, which are strongest for explosions, such as from air strikes or landmines. Overall, our findings underline that armed conflict entails structural economic, social and institutional change, which creates complex, gendered impacts on economic activity.

Building Ethiopia’s food security resilience to climate and hydrological change

Historically Ethiopia’s food security has been sensitive to climatic variability, but changes in future weather and climate could lead to overall reductions and increased variability in agricultural production, without further adaptation. We present an integrated modelling assessment framework which combines climate, crop, and hydrological modelling to quantify future risks to Ethiopia’s food security. We explore the impacts of 2°C and higher climate change scenarios on water availability and crop yields and simulate how future climate shocks may impact Ethiopia’s food. We consider three adaptations to agricultural management practices (improved seed varieties, increased use of nitrogen fertilizer and supplementary irrigation) and quantify their effectiveness in enhancing the resilience of Ethiopia’s food system to climate and hydrological change by 2050. Results show that, without policy intervention, climate change creates a risk of declining Meher season crop yields across Ethiopia. Under the worst climate change scenario, teff (−12.0%), barley (−6.7%), and wheat (−4.4%) are projected to have the largest decline in average yields, whilst maize (−0.1%) and sorghum (+0.9%) yields are less impacted thanks to more favourable growing conditions. However, the results also indicate that the adaptation options have a bigger beneficial effect than the climate impact. Of the policies evaluated, improved seeds have a relatively greater effect than increased fertilizer use. Supplementary irrigation could help to mitigate increases in crop water requirements under warmer climate conditions and is most effective in drought prone basins and for drought-vulnerable crops. Overall, the results show that locally relevant agricultural policies are necessary to build Ethiopia’s food system resilience to climate and hydrological change by the mid-century.

Perspective: Can growth monitoring and promotion accurately diagnose or screen for inadequate growth of individual children? A critical review of the epidemiological foundations

Growth monitoring and promotion (GMP), the process of periodic anthropometric measurements to assess the adequacy of individual child growth, is implemented across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The epidemiological foundations of GMP (i.e., that GMP can accurately diagnose or screen for inadequate growth) have never been critically reviewed. We first assessed growth patterns of individual healthy children. Using longitudinal data from low-, middle-, and high-income countries, we evaluated whether commonly used GMP criteria can be used for diagnosis and screening; i.e., if they accurately identify current, or predict subsequent, inadequate growth in individual children. The growth of individual healthy children does not track along a specific growth curve which challenges the notion that growth measurements alone can be used to distinguish between healthy and inadequate growth. We demonstrate that GMP criteria do not provide meaningful diagnostic information and that GMP is not a meaningful screening activity: commonly used GMP criteria are inaccurate predictors of (inadequate) growth later in childhood; and collecting individual children’s weight and height does not help to identify who needs support or who will benefit. Our results do not undermine the importance of dedicated programs to diagnose wasting in individual children nor do they challenge the need for well-child care to support parents and to ensure children’s optimal nutrition, health, and development. Our findings, however, highlight the need to carefully reconsider the current design of GMP in LMICs.

Risk-appropriate, science-based innovation regulations are important

Protocol: Food environment, food choice, diets, and nutrition outcomes of pastoralists in Africa: Scoping review protocol

This is the protocol for a Campbell scoping review. The objectives are as follows: (i) To define and characterize the food environment of pastoralists in Africa; (ii) To identify the domains of the food environment that have been studied in pastoralist settings in Africa; (iii) To assess the relationship between the food environment and food choice, dietary intake, and nutrition outcomes among pastoralists in Africa; and (iv) To map the study designs, methods, and geographical coverage of the studies.

Seed certification, certified seeds use and yield outcomes in Nigeria: Insights from nationally-representative farm panel data and seed company location data

CONTEXT Despite the importance of enhanced seed quality to agricultural productivity growth, evidence remains scarce regarding the nature and possible drivers of returns to formal sector quality assurance systems, including certified seeds production in countries like Nigeria that focus significantly on the formal-sector seed systems. OBJECTIVE This study narrows this knowledge gap by estimating the effect of the quantity of certified seeds produced and the spatial variations where they are produced on the use of certified seeds and yields. We also assess the yield effects of certified seeds use and their relationship with agroclimatic and socioeconomic conditions. METHODS We combine nationally-representative farm-household survey panel data with spatial data on the headquarters locations of seed companies, the quantity of certified seeds for maize, cowpea, and rice that they produce, and spatially explicit agroecological data. We apply panel fixed effects methods as well as instrumental-variable methods to address potential endogeneity associated with certified seeds use while also controlling for the use of improved varieties to separate their effects from the effects of certified seeds. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicate that the availability of certified seeds—captured by indicators of certified seeds produced by seed companies headquartered in the states of survey respondents—is associated with positive but declining marginal effects on certified seeds use and yields. These results are robust when we also consider the potential within-state heterogeneity in the proximity to seed company headquarters, as well as potential spillovers from the nearest adjacent states. The yield effects of certified seeds are heterogeneous and depend on agroclimatic conditions and farmers’ socioeconomic characteristics. The use of certified seeds is somewhat higher in areas with higher yield effects after controlling for certified seeds production. These patterns partly lead to observed non-linearities in certified seeds use because certified seeds may be more likely to be used by farmers with higher expected returns than farmers with lower expected returns. These results underscore the importance of spatially targeted efforts in enhancing certified seeds production capacity, together with the exploration of intermediate quality standards in the short term where costs of seed certification are high relative to returns. SIGNIFICANCE The study provides unique quantitative evidence in a nationally representative framework in an African country that returns to seed certification systems in the current setting significantly vary depending on contexts, including agroclimatic conditions.

Global analysis reveals persistent shortfalls and regional differences in availability of foods needed for health

Sufficient food is available in the world for all people to consume sufficient calories, but not healthy diets. This study traces historical and projected changes in global food systems toward alignment with the new Healthy Diet Basket (HDB) used by UN agencies and the World Bank to monitor the cost and affordability of healthy diets worldwide. Using the HDB as a standard to measure adequacy of national, regional and global supply-demand balances, we find substantial but inconsistent progress toward closer alignment with dietary guidelines, with large global shortfalls in fruits, vegetables, and legumes, nuts, and seeds, and large disparities among regions in use of animal source foods. Projections show that additional investments aimed at reducing chronic hunger would modestly accelerate improvements in adequacy where shortfalls are greatest, revealing the need for complementary investments to increase access to under-consumed food groups especially in low-income countries.

South Asia Nutrition Knowledge Initiative: Abstract digest March 2025

In this fifth edition of the South Asia Nutrition Knowledge Initiative’s Abstract Digest, we present a diverse body of global, regional, and country-level evidence that, collectively, enhances our understanding of the multifaceted nature of malnutrition, spanning a broad spectrum of outcomes, determinants, and policy responses. Among the global and regional articles featured, these focus on key challenges and advancements in nutrition, gender, and health equity. Topics include gender-transformative interventions for adolescents, progress toward global nutrition targets, the links between adolescent pregnancy and anemia, optimal iron supplementation strategies, the applicability of a single child growth standard, and the need for a paradigm shift in anemia assessment. Additionally, discussions highlight shifting power dynamics in global health, inequalities in food environment research, the continuum of child development from conception to early life, and defining healthy diets through a joint FAO-WHO perspective. Other studies of interest include the latest research on maternal and child healthcare trends and inequality, anemia and micronutrient deficiencies, and malnutrition in children and adolescents, with a focus on Bangladesh, Nepal, and India. These studies examine determinants ranging such as marriage, education, and women’s empowerment to maternal and child health outcomes. They also explore the intersection of women’s work and child nutrition before expanding to broader dietary behaviors and the rising burden of non-communicable diseases, providing a comprehensive view of key nutrition and health challenges. Please scroll down to explore the abstracts of these studies. If you received this Abstract Digest via forwarding, we invite you to subscribe for future editions. Happy reading!

Production and consumption traits and the adoption of improved maize varieties: Evidence from seed sample packs and cooking demonstrations

In developing countries, semi-subsistence farmers typically assume dual roles as both consumers and producers of the same crops, which shape their adoption decisions as they balance household food security with market-driven incentives. This study, conducted in eastern Uganda, employs a field experiment with two intervention arms to assess the relative importance of these factors in farmers’ decisions to adopt improved maize seed varieties. The first intervention focuses on production traits, distributing free sample packs of an improved hybrid maize variety to showcase benefits such as higher yields, pest resistance, and drought tolerance. The second intervention emphasizes consumption traits, offering cooking demonstrations and blind taste tests using flour from the same improved maize variety to highlight its taste, texture, and ease of preparation. Our findings reveal that while seed sample packs positively influenced farmers’ perceptions of both production and consumption traits, cooking demonstrations primarily affected perceptions of consumption qualities. We find some evidence that the cooking demonstrations and tasting sessions significantly boosted adoption of the improved maize seed variety promoted by the intervention. However, farmers who received seed sample packs tended to recycle the harvested grain as seed in subsequent seasons, thereby crowding out fresh seed purchases. This practice led to productivity losses, suggesting that the seed trial packs did not translate into lasting improvements in food security or increased market participation.

Understanding pastoralist adaptations to drought via games and choice experiments: Field testing among Borana communities

Transhumant and nomadic pastoralism in arid and semi-arid spaces from West through Central, East, and Southern Africa is regarded as critical to regional system resilience and food security. Although pastoral systems are highly adapted and adaptive to uncertainty and change, recent decades of severe climatic events and increasing resource pressure are pushing pastoral systems to adopt novel norms and practices. Importantly, forage residue conservation and private forage enclosures are becoming important practices among herders and non-herders alike. As one part of considering the relevance of these responses in shaping the future trajectory of transhumant pastoralism, we developed a multi-part intervention for measuring and observing preferences in pastoral systems, including a novel experimental game called GreenReserve, and tested it in Borana communities in northern Kenya. We found that GreenReserve captured dimensions of human-environment dilemmas faced by pastoralists, and shifted preferences around herd size, losses, and the use of time, as measured through a repeated discrete choice experiment. We found game groups with younger players and with more female players to include more exploration of pastoral adaptations such as the use of grass reserves and the harvesting of grass, as well as to have less conflict within the game. We also observed both preferences as well as game strategy to shift along the length of the study: as the region moved further into a drought and failed short rainy season, players were more conscious of large herds, bad rainfall-year losses, and made better use of reserves in game play, though it was beyond the scope of the current study to determine causality. Future research is needed to unpack the mechanisms underlying the variations and possible shift in preferences and subsequently help identify entry points for targeted interventions (including agricultural extension services) to support pastoral communities in climate change adaptation. Further, these first fieldwork findings suggest two key dimensions for expanded work beyond this study to identify whether mixed methods approaches such as this aid experiential learning in agriculture contexts.

Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

Using an economy-wide, multi-sectoral model, this study explores potential vulnerability of Papua New Guinea (PNG) to economic shocks and identifies factors that contribute most to economic uncertainty. Economic scenarios were developed using historical data on volatile domestic sectors (e.g., primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation) and world prices of goods and services in which PNG trades. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of PNG was used to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under these scenarios. In addition, data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes. Key findings suggest that Papua New Guinea’s economy is predominantly exposed to external risks, with world prices and foreign capital volatility together accounting for approximately two-thirds of the potential variation in GDP and three-fourths of the potential variation in private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment (domestic production volatility contributes the remaining one-third and one-fourth, respectively). The current structure of the PNG economy underpins these results. While agriculture is the most uncertain sector, it is relatively less important compared to the overall economy; export earnings from energy and metals, as well as volatile foreign exchange capital inflows, play a much more significant role in the country’s current economic risks. Understanding how potential shocks might impact various segments of the PNG economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing sectoral productivity or diversifying production away from high-risk sectors.

Maternal balanced energy-protein supplementation reshapes the maternal gut microbiome and enhances carbohydrate metabolism in infants: A randomized controlled trial

Balanced energy-protein (BEP) supplementation during pregnancy and lactation can improve birth outcomes and infant growth, with the gut microbiome as a potential mediator. The MISAME-III randomized controlled trial (ClinicalTrial.gov: NCT03533712) assessed the effect of BEP supplementation, provided during pregnancy and the first six months of lactation, on small-for-gestational age prevalence and length-for-age Z-scores at six months in rural Burkina Faso. Nested within MISAME-III, this sub-study examines the impact of BEP supplementation on maternal and infant gut microbiomes and their mediating role in birth outcomes and infant growth. A total of 152 mother-infant dyads (n = 71 intervention, n = 81 control) were included for metagenomic sequencing, with stool samples collected at the second and third trimesters, and at 1–2 and 5–6 months postpartum. BEP supplementation significantly altered maternal gut microbiome diversity, composition, and function, particularly those with immune-modulatory properties. Pathways linked to lipopolysaccharide biosynthesis were depleted and the species Bacteroides fragilis was enriched in BEP-supplemented mothers. Maternal BEP supplementation also accelerated infant microbiome changes and enhanced carbohydrate metabolism. Causal mediation analyses identified specific taxa mediating the effect of BEP on birth outcomes and infant growth. These findings suggest that maternal supplementation modulates gut microbiome composition and influences early-life development in resource-limited settings.

Employment impacts of agrifood system innovations and policies: A review of the evidence

The agrifood sector (AFS) constitutes about one-sixth of the global economy and is the world’s largest source of employment, supporting the livelihoods of most of the world’s poor and vulnerable people (Corong et al., 2024; Yi et al., 2024). In recent decades, global agricultural productivity has increased due to technological and institutional innovations. This has contributed to poverty reduction and improved food security. Despite these positive contributions, however, poverty remains widespread among rural and agrifood sector producers and workers. The challenge remains to address the constraints these producers and workers face and also enable more inclusive value chain development that would provide decent livelihoods and employment for those currently left behind. To this end, the CGIAR Initiative “Rethinking Food Markets and Value Chains for Inclusion and Sustainability” commissioned a meta study to identify knowledge gaps regarding the impacts of developing countries’ agrifood value chain (AVC) integration and modernization processes on employment and income sharing (Berdegué et al., 2023). This paper summarizes its key findings and draws conclusions for further research.

Climate change and the impact on taro in Papua New Guinea

In this paper we present a brief summary of recent historical climate of Papua New Guinea (PNG), finding that rainfall has been increasing greatly compared to pre-1995 levels, but that temperature has only been rising at a moderate rate. We then examine the 5 climate models used in this study from the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) / ISIMIP / CMIP3b, discovering one – IPSL – which best reflects the climate trends noted in PNG since 1995. The climate model projections show that temperature changes in PNG are expected to be less than most other places in the world and precipitation changes in PNG are projected to be higher than most other places in the world. Despite noting that IPSL seems to best represent climate changes observed thus far, we use all 5 climate models in the DSSAT crop model for taro, investigating how each climate model will lead to changes in taro yields at each half-degree pixel. In the aggregate, we find that the IPSL model leads to the greatest projected reduction in taro yield at -6.4% for the nation, with Southern region projected to have greater than 10% yield reduction for taro. Across the 5 climate models, the median across model results suggest only a 1.6% yield reduction, while the most optimistic model projects a 4.4% gain. Because of uncertainty across climate models and different impacts across regions, as well as potentially increasing climate variability which would lead to more extreme events including droughts and floods, we recommend developing a suite of options to help farmers navigate future climate uncertainty. For example, developing and testing crop varieties that would offer better yields whether the future is wetter or drier, as well as varieties that are less sensitive to temperature extremes. These could include new varieties of taro but might also include alternative crops and farming techniques designed to protect the plants during ad-verse climate events.

A band selection method for consumer-grade camera modification for UAV-based rapeseed growth monitoring

Near-infrared (NIR) modification of low-cost cameras is considered an important method to acquire high-resolution NIR images on an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platform. However, few studies have examined filter selection methods to modify consumer-grade cameras for UAV-based agricultural crop monitoring. This study addresses a key challenge: how to balance imaging quality with spectral sensitivity when selecting filters for the modification of consumer-grade cameras. To this end, the normalized difference spectral index (NDSI) and the ratio spectral index (RSI) formulations were used to calculate the spectral indices (SIs) from all possible combinations of any two center wavelengths in UAV hyperspectral data. The contour maps of the coefficient of determination (R2) between the SIs and ground-measured rapeseed LAI were then computed to automatically generate the broadband combinations with optimized center wavelengths and effective bandwidths for selecting filters on camera modification. Results showed that a consumer-grade camera (Nikon D7000) modified by the selected filters had performance comparable with a multispectral camera (RedEdge Micasense 3), but slightly worse than a research-grade hyperspectral camera (Nano-Hyperspec®) in terms of SIs for LAI estimation. In addition, the high-resolution images from the modified camera were processed to obtain accurate crop plant height information. The SIs coupled with plant height from the modified camera (rRMSE = 18.1 % for field 1 and 14.3 % for field 2) was found to perform similar to, and in some cases even better than, those from the research-grade multispectral (rRMSE = 17.9 % and 16.7 % for the respective fields) and hyperspectral (rRMSE = 18.8 % for field 1) cameras for UAV-based LAI estimation. The findings from this study indicate that the proposed camera modification method is feasible and adaptable to agricultural crop monitoring. Thus, appropriately modified consumer-grade cameras can be a cost-effective replacement for research-grade sensors to rapidly and accurately assess crop growth status.

Comparison of gestational age assessment methods in the second and third trimesters: Evaluating alternative approaches against ultrasound in urban Burkina Faso

Background: Accurate determination of gestational age by way of ultrasound is challenging in resource-limited settings like Burkina Faso, leading to the use of alternative methods, though their accuracy and agreement remain poorly established. This practice leads to inadequate risk assessment during pregnancy and failure to identify preterm birth, potentially contributing to high neonatal mortality rates. The purpose of this study was to determine the agreement among alternative methods for gestational age estimation and the Alliance for Maternal and Newborn Health Improvement (AMANHI) method in Burkina Faso. Methods: Data were obtained from a prospective cohort study involving pregnant women in the second or third trimester in Bobo-Dioulasso to evaluate the agreement of last menstrual period (LMP), symphysis-fundal height (SFH), Dubowitz, Hadlock, and AMAHNI methods to estimate gestational age. The degree of agreement was assessed using the Bland–Altman method and intraclass correlation coefficients. The AMANHI method, validated for late pregnancy, was used as the reference standard. Results: A total of 768 pregnant women were included in the analysis. Plots showed a lack of agreement between the AMANHI method and all other methods, with 95% limits of agreement ranging from −7.6 to +9.8 weeks. Additionally, the incidence of preterm birth was consistently higher when assessed using the alternative methods compared with the AMANHI method. Conclusions: The clinical methods (SFH, LMP, Dubowitz) disagree with the ultrasound methods (AMANHI, Hadlock), but the ultrasound methods produce more similar results. The routine application of other methods is likely to result in an overestimation of preterm birth incidence compared with AMANHI. These findings highlight the urgent need to improve access to obstetric ultrasound and to provide comprehensive training in the application of the AMANHI method for accurate late-term gestational age estimation in Burkina Faso.

Seeds of change: The impact of Ethiopia’s direct seed marketing approach on smallholders’ seed purchases and productivity

Several factors contribute to the limited use of improved seed varieties in Ethiopia. Among those, on the supply side, is the restricted availability of seeds in the volume, quality, and timeliness required by farmers, partly due to inadequate public and private investment in the sector. Beginning in 2011, the Government of Ethiopia introduced a novel experiment—the direct seed marketing approach—to reduce some of the centralized, state-run attributes of the country’s seed market and rationalize the use of public resources. Direct seed marketing was designed to incentivize private and public seed producers to sell directly to farmers rather than through the state apparatus. This study is the first quantitative evaluation of the impact of direct seed marketing on indicators of a healthy seed system: access to quality seeds and farm-level productivity. Using a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences approach suitable to handling variation in treatment timing, the study finds that direct seed marketing led to an increase of 15 percentage points in the proportion of farmers purchasing maize seed, an increase of 45 percent in the quantity of maize seed purchased per hectare, and an increase of 18 percent in maize yield. However, there are differences across crops, with the effects of direct seed marketing on wheat seed purchases and yields being statistically insignificant. These crop-specific differences in performance are likely explained by differences in the reproductive biology of maize (particularly maize hybrids) and wheat, which tend to incentivize commercial activity in hybrid maize seed markets more than in self-pollinating wheat or open-pollinated maize markets. These differences suggest a need for nuanced policy responses, institutional arrangements, and market development strategies to accelerate the adoption of improved varieties.

The dynamic impacts of alternative livestock sector intervention and spending options in Rwanda

This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of various livestock interventions—feed, breeding, and health—and budget allocation strategies (balanced, feed-oriented, breeding oriented, and health-oriented) in the context of Rwanda’s economic and livestock systems. Using an economic and livestock systems integrated framework, the research highlights moderate yet sustained impacts on agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and significant improvements in the livestock sector. Overall, breeding interventions have the largest cumulative effect on agricultural GDP, while health measures, particularly dewormers, yield long-term gains in livestock productivity. Under the balanced scenario, breeding contributes significantly to both meat and milk sector GDP, while feed interventions show a smaller impact overall. The study also finds that biased spending scenarios lead to differing outcomes across livestock sub-sectors. Breeding-oriented spending boosts milk GDP initially, whereas health-oriented spending excels in meat production through reduced deaths and increased liveweight. By the end of the simulation period, a balanced investment strategy results in a 12.5 percent increase in meat yield and a 27 percent rise in milk yield, largely driven by breeding. Health interventions, particularly deworming, are crucial for sustained meat production, while improved feed mitigates mortality and supports stock growth. These results can support policy dialogue, such as the recently introduced Fifth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 5), as policy makers seek to revitalize the livestock sector and enhance its resilience to future challenges.

SELEVER study data

The SELEVER study was a cluster randomized controlled trial aiming to evaluate the effects of an inte-grated agriculture–nutrition intervention package (including poultry value chain development, women’s empowerment activities, and a behavior change communications strategy to promote improved diets and feeding, care, and hygiene practices) on the diets, health, and nutritional status of women and chil-dren in rural Burkina Faso (1). Four rounds of data collection were carried out in rural communities of three regions of Burkina Faso: Boucle du Mouhoun, Centre-Ouest and Haut-Bassins between March 2017 and August 2020. The first round (Baseline) took place between March and June 2017 during the post-harvest season in a sam-ple of 1800 households. The second (Follow-up) and third (Follow-up 2) rounds took place during the lean season in 2017 (September-October) and 2019 (September-October) in a subsample of 1080 households. The last survey round (Endline) took place between March and August 2020 (including a break due to covid-19 restrictions).

Cost effectiveness of anticipatory action: Lesotho, Madagascar, and Mozambique

An important question when conducting anticipatory action programs relates to its cost-effectiveness. By cost effectiveness, we refer to the relative costs and benefits of anticipatory action in general relative to a more standard approach to post-shock aid. In this context, we largely want to know what would happen to potential beneficiary households in two different scenarios: 1) if they receive anticipatory action transfers, and 2) if they instead receive unconditional post-shock transfers of the same size. The idea is that we assume there is a fixed budget envelope, and the same amount of assistance could be provided as either anticipatory action or as post-shock transfers. The resulting measurement estimates the difference in benefits and losses to providing anticipatory action relative to post-shock assistance, providing a conclusion on the overall net benefits or losses of this approach. Since we assume a fixed budget envelope, we invert the process of measuring cost effectiveness by measuring the net benefits of anticipatory action relative to post-shock transfers. This analysis uses the conceptual framework developed by de Brauw and Bloem (2024) to identify classes of potential benefits and costs for anticipatory action relative to unconditional post-shock transfers. The model suggests the main benefit to anticipatory action is that households can better protect their productive asset holdings, whether livestock or other farm implements, which implies their future incomes will be higher than they would be otherwise. There are also potential gains for households during the negative shock, implying those households may be less food insecure, for example, while the shock is occurring.1 On the other hand, the framework suggests that a specific cost to anticipatory action is the cost of getting it wrong (i.e., giving people benefits when the shock does not materialize for those people).

Resilient Cities urban nutrition profile: Kenya

Despite progress in reducing child stunting over the past 15 years, Kenya is now facing new nutrition challenges, including overweight and obesity. The double burden of malnutrition (DBM), which is the coexistence of under- and overnutrition within individuals, households, and populations [1], manifests as child stunting and adult overweight (mostly in women) at the population and household levels. Dietary diversity is low and affects different population groups (particularly young children, adolescents, and women), predisposing them to micronutrient deficiencies. However, recent data on micronutrient intake and status are lacking. Households living in urban areas are vulnerable to being overweight, a consequence of increasingly unhealthy dietary patterns. In Kenya’s informal urban settlements, limited dietary diversity, reliance on cereals, and widespread consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) contribute to high rates of child stunting, underweight, and the DBM, with affordability and accessibility driving food choices. Compounding factors include food safety concerns, clustering of unhealthy food vendors, and external shocks. Urban nutrition interventions have had mixed results, with some programs improving child health and maternal knowledge, but others showing no significant impact. Kenya aims to eliminate malnutrition by 2027, but national policies focus mostly on rural areas, leaving urban nutrition challenges insufficiently addressed. Programs such as Afya Jiji and the Nairobi City County Food System Strategy target urban health, but gaps in urban-specific strategies, poor coordination, and limited funding hinder progress. The national school meals program serves only a small portion of schools, and urban food policies are still underdeveloped.

Trends and associated factors of animal source foods consumption among children aged 6–23 months in Bangladesh: Evidence from four consecutive national surveys

Animal source foods (ASF) are nutrient-dense and essential for the growth and development of children. The Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) 2022 reported that approximately two-thirds of children aged 6–23 months consumed eggs/flesh foods. However, overall consumption patterns, trends, and factors influencing ASF intake among children in Bangladesh were not well-documented. Therefore, the study aimed to assess the trends and associated factors of ASF consumption among children aged 6–23 months in Bangladesh. A total of 9401 children were extracted from four consecutive BDHS (2011, 2014, 2017/18, and 2022). The Cochran-Armitage test was conducted to assess the trends in ASF consumption, while a two-stage multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression was performed to identify the associated factors. The consumption of ASF significantly increased to 79.1% in 2017/18 from 67% in 2011 but decreased to 73.3% in 2022. ASF consumption was found to be higher among children whose mothers were educated (AOR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.30–1.98), employed in either agricultural (AOR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.04–1.54) or non-agricultural (AOR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.07–1.72) activities, pregnant (AOR = 2.54, 95% CI = 1.66–3.87), had received ANC 1–3 times (AOR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.20–1.72) or ≥4 times (AOR = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.29–1.95), and was exposed to media (AOR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.04–1.39). Furthermore, consumption increased with increasing the age of children, and the wealth of their families. However, children who experienced illness were less likely to consume ASF (AOR = 0.76, 95% CI = 0.68–0.86). The recent declines in ASF consumption emphasize the need for targeted interventions to increase ASF consumption among children in Bangladesh.

Advancing women’s voice and empowerment in the agrifood policy process: Findings and recommendations from the WEAGov India Pilot Study

Women’s equal participation and leadership in political and public life can boost a country’s long-run economic growth, foster social inclusion, and help countries reach the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. Beyond these important outcomes, women’s inclusion in public life is a basic human right: women deserve a role in making decisions, controlling resources, and shaping policies. Yet, globally, only 22 percent of members of parliament and 16 percent of cabinet secretaries are women. Although disproportionately employed in the agrifood system, women lack decision-making power regarding the policies that govern it. And beyond high-level statistics like the share of women in national parliaments, there is a lack of tools for measuring and tracking gender equality in national- and state-level governance (ElDidi et al., 2021; Quisumbing et al., 2023; Ragasa et al., 2022). Yet, achieving meaningful progress on gender equality within governance requires identifying specific gaps and opportunities within a country’s policy process.

Commercialization and dietary diversity of Rwandan smallholder farmers: A focus on women and youth headed households

Using a household dietary diversity score as a proxy for household access to nutritious foods, this paper assesses the relationship between commercialization and nutritional outcomes of Rwandan smallholder farmers, with a particular emphasis on women and youth headed households. The results indicate that commercialization has a strong, positive effect on household dietary diversity but mixed results between sub-categories of households. For instance, male-headed households have higher overall dietary diversity compared to female-headed ones, but much of that variation can be explained by higher asset ownership and income. However, relative to male headed households, female headed households appear to respond to increasing levels of commercialization by consuming more diverse foods, an insight that could be useful for targeted interventions. Importantly, youth-headed households exhibit greater household dietary diversity than those households headed by older individuals, despite having both lower levels of assets and crop commercialization. General determinants that positively influence household dietary diversity include the level of commercialization, household non-farm assets, market access, education of the household head, the presence of children under five in the household, irrigation use, land size, and livestock holdings. The goal of this research is to enable policy makers to better identify the drivers of household dietary consumption, particularly among more vulnerable households, and how to encourage a more diverse diet for better nutritional outcomes.

Digital marketing of unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages to children and adolescents: A narrative review

With growing access to electronic devices and time spent online, the food and beverage industry increasingly uses digital media to market unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages (high in unhealthy fats, sugars, and/or salt and often highly processed) to children and adolescents. We conducted a narrative review of the global evidence on digital marketing of these foods and drinks and studied policies and regulations in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. Evidence was limited to a few high, upper-middle and lower-middle income countries where children and adolescents were found to be extensively exposed to the digital marketing of unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages and this exposure increased with age. A wide range of purposefully designed marketing techniques were used. Exposure to the digital marketing of unhealthy foods appears to be followed by increased consumption, but the quality of the evidence was limited. Accurate assessment of exposure was a shortcoming in most studies. Stronger evidence will require studies with more rigorous designs that minimize confounding and objectively quantify individual exposure. Mandatory comprehensive policies are needed that limit exposure of children and adolescents to the marketing of unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages irrespective of the medium or platform they use. The experience of LAC countries may provide insights for the development of effective policies in other countries. Novel technologies that can be used by governments to monitor digital marketing regulations are needed.

Market monitoring in Rwanda’s rice sector: Insights from recent events

Summary • While domestic rice production has risen 16% over the past five years, district level growth rates are varied and suggest strong growth in some districts but reductions in others. Leveraging higher growth area’s successes could be used to further expand production in declining growth districts. • Microeconomic data suggests that smallholder rice farmers have slightly larger than average landholdings, grow at lower elevations, and sell about twice the percentage of crop value when compared to typical smallholders. • A declining Tanzanian rice premium over the last five years (2019-2024) suggests a greater substitutability between Rwandan and Tanzanian rice but specific reasons for this trend are unclear and warrant further research. Overall, a 50 percent premium has been reduced to currently about 20 percent. • Following a dramatic price increase in 2022, a subsequent large decrease in Tanzanian wholesale rice prices may have undermined government price setting in August 2024. Domestic producer rice price setting has been based on costs of production but appears to not consider other factors, such as the effects of imported prices of direct substitutes. A price analysis reveals that Tanzanian wholesale prices, valued in USD, fell about 37 percent from October 2023 to August 2024, while Rwandan retail rice prices were down only 14 percent. This relative price decrease could have effectively squeezed Rwandan processors when faced with government determined local producer prices that constricted potential profitability against rapidly declining Tanzanian prices. • Research presented below indicates that Tanzanian wholesale prices have large, immediate impacts on rice prices in Rwanda, but Rwandan prices have little to no effect on either imported or wholesale Tanzanian rice prices. Therefore, dramatic changes of Tanzania wholesale prices have large effects on both retail Tanzanian and Rwandan rice prices in Rwanda. This unidirectional effect highlights the importance of monitoring domestic and important international prices and studying prices which could have potentially helped policymakers adjust to market dynamics more effectively and better inform target interventions. We recommend developing an improved market monitoring and forecasting unit to better incorporate the food systems approach promoted in PSTA 5.

Does trade with multinationals induce greener production? Evidence from the Bangladesh fashion industry

This working paper examines the impact of trading with global fashion brands on the environmental performance of suppliers in Bangladesh. The study finds that an increase in the number of exporters to brand multinationals improves the river water quality surrounding these exporters, highlighting the crucial role multinational buyers play in mitigating industrial pollution. JEL Classification: F18, F64, O13, Q56

Unique datasets on shocks, food security, and household coping strategies: Creating new analytical playgrounds to study coping behavior in the multi-shock environments of Mali, Chad, Niger, and Burkina Faso (2018-2023)

To inform the Cadre Harmonisé process in West Africa, large-scale national household surveys are usually implemented twice a year to capture data on household food security and several forms of consumption- and livelihood-based coping strategies. These cross-sectional surveys typically take place around February-March (before the start of the lean season) and September-October (at the end of the lean season or beginning of the harvesting period), and they are generally representative at the second-tier administrative level. Despite their different names (that is, ENSAN in Mali, ENSA in Chad, EVIAM in Niger, and ENISAN in Burkina Faso) and the methodological revisions introduced over the years, these surveys have a large common set of variables that were pooled together by standardizing the modalities of all common variables found across the multiple survey waves between 2018 and 2023. Apart from reconsolidation and reprocessing of initial data files, this process also involved the re-computation of several key indicators on food security and household coping as to assure maximum methodological consistency over time.

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, January 2025

Highlights  Retail prices of maize increased by 21 percent in January.  Maize prices were lowest in the Northern region, where informal imports from Tanzania and northern Zambia enter the country, and increased southward.  Some maize was exported to southern Zambia, but high prices in southern Malawi attracted imports from Mozambique.  At the market exchange rate, retail prices of maize in Malawi were similar to those in Zambia and lower than in Mozambique and Zimbabwe.

Can district level support enhance coverage and equity? Evidence from India’s nutrition program

Importance: India’s Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) program is among the world’s largest nutrition and health programs that offers services to pregnant, lactating mothers, and young children. To support national investments towards universalization of ICDS interventions, between 2016 and 2020, the Indian government in collaboration with multiple partners, introduced system strengthening mechanisms at the district (subnational administrative unit) level in 64% of India’s districts. Objectives: To examine national-level trends in coverage and equity of ICDS interventions and the role of district-level support mechanisms in improving equitable coverage. Design, Setting, and Participants: This quasi-experimental assessment used data (N=393,097 mother-child pairs) from three rounds of nationally representative surveys in 2006, 2016, and 2020. We used inequity indices and regression models to assess changes in equity by wealth, caste, and residence. We applied difference-in-differences (DID) models to investigate changes in coverage due to district support mechanisms between 2016 and 2020. Intervention: The district support mechanisms were introduced between 2016 and 2020 and included a combination of input features such as capacity building of frontline workers, additional human resources, financial, infrastructural, and technological support, among others. Main Outcomes and Measures: Our primary outcomes were the receipt of thirteen ICDS services during pregnancy, lactation, and early childhood. District support mechanisms were grouped into three treatment arms for DID analyses using an intention-to-treat approach with heterogeneous treatments. Results: ICDS utilization continued to increase from 2016 to 2020, with the most improvement observed in health and nutrition education (20-21pp). Unlike 2006-2016, there were large improvements in coverage equity between 2016-2020. DID models show, on average, that districts receiving any programmatic support had significant and faster improvements in coverage (2.2-14.7pp). Pooled effects sizes were larger, on average, for districts that received financial support in addition to human resources (8.9pp, 95% CI 7.3-10.74) compared to districts that only received human resource support (4.5pp, 95% CI 3.4-5.7). Conclusions: India’s programmatic efforts to further strengthen the ICDS were successful in increasing coverage of ICDS program at the national-level and reducing coverage inequities that persisted earlier. Focused district support mechanisms enabled faster progress in coverage and equity.

The long-run and intergenerational impact of early exposure to the Great Chinese Famine of 1959–61 on mental health

We study the effects of early exposure to the Great Chinese Famine on the mental health and subjective well-being of survivors as well as their offspring using data from the 2010 and 2014 waves of the China Family Panel Studies. Our analysis focuses on K6 scores, severe mental illness, and life dissatisfaction. We find that early exposure to the famine has impaired the mental health outcomes of women, but not men (i.e., the first generation). For the second generation, negative effects only show up among the sons of male famine survivors. Some preliminary evidence suggests that the mechanism for such transmission may have to do with the cultural son preference.

The effects of prenatal multiple micronutrient supplementation and small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplementation on small vulnerable newborn types in low-income and middle-income countries: A meta-analysis of individual participant data

Background Small vulnerable newborn types, defined by combinations of being born too soon or too small, have distinct determinants and health consequences. We aimed to assess the effects of prenatal multiple micronutrient supplementation (MMS) and small-quantity lipid-based nutrient supplementation (SQ-LNS) on small vulnerable newborn types, which are currently unknown. Methods In this meta-analysis, individual participant data from randomised controlled trials of MMS and randomised controlled trials of SQ-LNS in low-income and middle-income countries were used. We systematically searched the literature using PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science to identify randomised controlled trials of prenatal nutritional supplementation using MMS or SQ-LNS among pregnant people published between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2021. Studies were excluded if they were conducted exclusively among participants selected by pre-existing health conditions, such as anaemia status, HIV infection, or diabetes. We contacted the corresponding authors of all identified studies to seek data contribution. As individual participant data became available, we mapped relevant variables and harmonised the data across studies. Iron and folic acid supplementation was the control group in most studies. Newborns were classified into ten groups through the combinations of preterm or term birth, small, appropriate, and large for gestational age, and low birthweight (LBW) or non-LBW. Newborns were also analysed using a four-group categorisation of preterm or term and LBW or non-LBW. Log-binomial models were used to estimate study-specific risk ratios (RRs), which were pooled using meta-analyses. Findings 14 randomised controlled trials of MMS (n=42 618; the mean maternal age at study enrolment was 24·3 years [SD 5.6]; 22 086 [51·8%] male neonates and 20 532 [48·2%] female neonates) and four randomised controlled trials of SQ-LNS (n=6246; the mean maternal age at study enrolment was 23·3 years [SD 5·3]; 3137 [50·2%] male neonates and 3109 [49·8%] female neonates) were used. In the ten-group categorisation of small vulnerable newborns, prenatal MMS reduced the risk of preterm–small for gestational age (SGA)–LBW (RR 0·73, 95% CI 0·64–0·84; p=0·0003); preterm–appropriate for gestational age (AGA)–LBW (0·82, 0·74–0·91; p=0·0010); preterm–AGA–non-LBW (0·89, 0·80–0·98; p=0·019); term–SGA–LBW (0·91, 0·85–0·96; p=0·0046); and term–SGA–non-LBW (0·95, 0·90–1·00; p=0·050). In the four-group categorisation, prenatal MMS reduced the risk of preterm–SGA (0·71, 0·62–0·82; p=0·0002) and term–SGA (0·93, 0·89–0·98; p=0·0066). Prenatal SQ-LNS had no significant effects on the risk of giving birth to small vulnerable newborns except for preterm–large for gestational age–non-LBW in the ten-group categorisation (0·78, 0·65–0·94; p=0·023). Interpretation Prenatal MMS and SQ-LNS reduce the risk of giving birth to small vulnerable newborns to varying extents, with the greatest magnitude of effects observed for small vulnerable newborn types that confer the greatest neonatal mortality risk. This study underscores the importance of nutritional supplements in prenatal care.

Methodology [of the PEDAL project]

Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) is considered one of the most cost-effective ways of addressing micronutrient deficiencies. The intervention involves adding essential minerals and vitamins to widely consumed foods and requires minimal changes to consumption patterns while relying on existing food delivery systems. However, there is a lot of variability across countries in the adoption of mandatory and voluntary LSFF standards, that is, the government legislation requiring that specific staple foods or condiments be fortified. In fact, there are more than 80 countries where micronutrient deficiencies are widespread but a mandatory fortification standard has not been adopted. Even in countries where standards have been adopted, implementation could not be financially sustained over the years or laboratory tests revealed that designated food vehicles lacked the stipulated micronutrients. The Political Economy Diagnostic for Assessing Large-Scale Food Fortification (PEDAL) is designed to identify the ways in which political and institutional factors may contribute to differences in the uptake and implementation of LSFF standards. While political economy is acknowledged to be an important factor underlying the success or failure of LSFF, few studies on LSFF explicitly incorporate it into their analyses. By reducing LSFF to a purely technical intervention, bottlenecks to policy traction can worsen and derail uptake. In contrast, PEDAL offers a systematic diagnostic of the political economy environment for LSFF to identify these bottlenecks ex ante and to calibrate policy interventions accordingly. In doing so, PEDAL aims to help countries advance toward achieving healthier diets and reducing micronutrient deficiencies. PEDAL focuses on two core elements of the enabling environment: political will and implementation capacity (see Figure 1). Political will consists of the range of interests that motivate different stakeholders, the ideational goals that underlie their policy preferences, and their degree of leverage to exert their preferences. Implementation capacity consists of both the institutional architecture established to make continuous decisions related to LSFF policy and the technical capacity to ensure regulations are adhered to at the processing and retail levels. Across both dimensions, the diagnostic examines three sets of actors: the public sector (including government ministries, agencies, executives, legislators, and bureaucrats), the private sector (such as food producers, processors, and retailers) and civil society (including consumers, research institutes, universities, journalists, and nongovernmental organizations). The remainder of this brief examines these components in more detail and highlights how they can be assessed by researchers and practitioners.

Madagascar assessment

Large-scale food fortification (LSFF) presents a promising intervention in Madagascar, where approximately 75% of the population lives below the poverty line and faces multiple malnutrition burdens. For instance, 39.8% of children under age five are stunted, and 37.8% of reproductive age women suffer from anemia (Development Initiatives 2022). These trends persist despite a long history of nutrition programs and alliances, including the introduction of a mandatory salt iodization program in 1995, several national nutrition policies and action plans since 2004, and the country’s participation in the Scaling Up Nutrition (SUN) movement since 2021. Moreover, despite several voluntary standards in place, progress in implementing mandatory LSFF for widely consumed foods remains stalled, lagging behind LSFF in many other African countries.

Conditional contracts in indirect local procurement of maize from smallholder farmers in Uganda: A study design to assess impacts

Improving smallholder farmers’ access to reliable markets can have significant impacts on their wellbeing, income, poverty reduction, dietary diversity, and rural economic growth. As the choice of marketing channels may influence outcomes differently depending on the context, a key issue is understanding the effectiveness of different marketing instruments. One such modality is a conditional contract between a buyer and the traders supplying it. Such a contract requires traders to source a certain percentage of their supplies directly from smallholder farmers. This raises the question of whether conditional contracts create access to reliable markets for smallholder farmers, result in value chain transformation, and sustain market engagement between traders and smallholder farmers.

The connection between climate change and malnutrition

The linkage is increasingly being acknowledged by policies and in climate protection measures. But concrete, well-financed and institutionally backed strategies are still lacking.

Household wellbeing in rural Papua New Guinea: Poverty analysis from the 2023 PNG Rural Household Survey

This analysis provides the first poverty assessment using the cost of basic needs approach in Papua New Guinea in 1.5 decades. The cost of basic needs poverty methodology is the standard approach to estimating poverty in low- and middle-income countries. It aims to reflect the cost of a food basket and nonfood needs to secure a healthy life and minimum standard of living. Using the cost of basic needs approach, we calculate and compare two poverty measurements. First, we compute a standard (traditional) cost of basic needs poverty line where the food poverty line is defined by a dietary energy (calorie) threshold. Second, we extend the standard cost of basic needs approach to calculate a healthy diet food poverty line that meets both the dietary energy threshold, as well as recommended nutrition targets. Results suggest that 43 percent of sample individuals live below the standard cost of basic needs poverty line. When recalculating the poverty line to account for a healthy diet threshold (a mix of food groups set at quantities consistent with dietary guidelines), we find that 64 percent of the sample is below the healthy diet poverty line. On average, households within the survey sample over-consume the recommended daily quantity of staples and fats, however daily consumption of vegetables, fruits, and protein-rich foods (e.g., fish, meat, nuts) fall short of recommended targets. The above poverty analysis begs the question of what characteristics are associated with higher income earning households (we use per capita consumption-expenditure as the rural income proxy). Regression analysis suggests that greater production assets (land and labor), education, market access, and income diversification (via non-farm businesses and migrant remittances) are associated with higher household incomes. While we hypothesized that households engaged in cash crop sales (i.e. cocoa, coffee, betelnut, horticulture) would be significantly better off, we find that only cocoa farming households have significantly higher incomes. The regression analysis reveals that facilitated access to a market is one of the most important indicators explaining per capita consumption-expenditure (i.e. income per person). Households that are more than 4 hours from a market have about 25 percent less income compared to households that are within 2 hours from a market. Conversely, households that report owning a small business (non-farm enterprise) are associated with approximately 25 percent greater consumption-expenditure per capita. While market access and income diversification are important to household incomes, weather shocks such as floods are associated with significant declines (8 percent) in per capita consumption-expenditure. Given the above results, a pilot social safety net program in more remote (greater than 4 hours from a market) and flood prone areas, where household incomes are significantly lower, may provide important insights on the most efficient mechanisms to build resilience among PNG’s vulnerable population. Including a community asset building component (e.g., building and maintenance of rural feeder roads and bridges) in the social safety net program could be tested to understand how best to support rural-urban market linkages and incentivize off-farm employment. Understanding that a social safety net program requires significant resourcing (including financial, logistics and time), there are other opportunities to improve rural welfare within the country. Facilitating remittance transfers from migrants to rural households via electronic banking services and easing banking costs for rural households may increase remittance payments. In addition, facilitating access to primary education via reduced school fees and increasing school attendance via school feeding programs could provide greater income earning opportunities for better educated households, as well as (if designed properly) fill some of the nutrition gaps demonstrated by the large share of individuals that live under the healthy diet poverty line presented in this paper.

Country profile – Senegal: Gender, climate change, and nutrition linkages

This country brief supports GCAN’s goal of integrating gender, climate resilience, and nutrition considerations into policies, interventions, and research by providing policymakers, program officers, and researchers with an analysis of Senegal’s current situation and policy landscape in these areas. In 2019, the agrifood system of Senegal accounted for 36% of total GDP and employed 43% of the total work force. The off-farm components (i.e., processing, trade/transport, food services, and input supply) are slightly more (less) important than primary agriculture in terms of GDP (employment), which implies that labor productivity is higher for off-farm activities. The most important value chains as a percentage of total agrifood system’s GDP are groundnuts (15%), cattle/dairy (14%), and sorghum/millet and fish (both around 11%) (Diao et al. 2023). In part due to important food losses observed during storage and distribution, Senegal’s agrifood system is generally failing to provide nutritious and affordable diets to its population. In fact, total food supplies are dominated by energy-dense food items, with supplies in fruit and pulses amounting to only 55 and 15 grams per capita per day, respectively, resulting in 50% of all Senegalese being unable to afford a healthy diet in 2022.

Household wellbeing in rural Papua New Guinea: Analysis from the 2023 PNG Rural Household Survey

Key Messages  The PNG 2023 Rural Household Survey collected detailed consumption and expenditure data, which allows the first cost of basic needs poverty assessment since the 2009/10 Household Income Expenditure Survey. However, it is important to note that the survey is not nationally representative.  43% of sample individuals are estimated to be poor relative to the standard cost of basic needs poverty lines (poor is defined as those who live in households that do not have sufficient resources to acquire calorie adequate diets while also meeting basic non-food needs).  64% of sample individuals are estimated to be poor relative to the healthy diet poverty lines (poor is defined as those who live in households that do not have sufficient resources to meet healthy dietary guidelines while also meeting basic non-food needs).  The healthy diet poverty line incorporates a higher share of nutrient dense food groups (vegetables, fruits, meat and fish, etc.) and thus is about 1/3 more costly than the standard poverty line.  On average, households within the survey sample over-consume staples and fats compared to healthy guidelines and under-consume vegetables, fruits, animal source foods, and nuts/pulses.  Smaller households and households with greater production assets (land and labor), education completion, market access, and income diversification (via non-farm businesses and migrant remittances) are associated with higher household consumption-expenditure (income proxy).  Among households engaged in cash crop sales (i.e., cocoa, coffee, betelnut, horticulture) only cocoa farming households have significantly higher consumption-expenditure (income proxy).  Targeted safety net and community asset building programs could reduce rural poverty by increasing agriculture productivity, supporting rural-urban market linkages, improving demand for rural goods, and incentivizing off-farm employment.  Facilitating remittance transfers from migrants to rural households and facilitating access to primary education could improve rural incomes in the short and long term, respectively.