Innovation Policy and Scaling

Armed conflict and gendered participation in agrifood systems: Survey evidence from 29 African countries

This paper provides empirical micro-level evidence on the gendered impacts of armed conflict on economic activity in agriculture and other sectors, combining large-N sex-disaggregated survey data with temporally and spatially disaggregated conflict event data from 29 African countries. We find that local conflict exposure is only weakly related to labour-force participation, but strongly reduces the total number of hours worked and increases engagement in the agricultural sector. These net impacts exist for both men and women. However, the reduction in hours worked is significantly greater among men, while the increase in agricultural activity is significantly greater among women. In the longer term, impacts of conflict on employment two years later are stronger when no more conflict ensues than if further conflict occurs, challenging the widespread idea of one-off conflict shocks fading away over time and suggesting that labour markets adapt to and absorb lasting conflict situations. Different types of conflict event have qualitatively similar impacts, which are strongest for explosions, such as from air strikes or landmines. Overall, our findings underline that armed conflict entails structural economic, social and institutional change, which creates complex, gendered impacts on economic activity.

Do youth work in agriculture? Short-term dynamics of on-farm rural youth employment in Tanzania and Malawi

What are the economic and poverty implications for Sudan if the conflict continues through 2024?

The conflict in Sudan, which started in April 2023, has led to severe economic repercussions, sharply reducing the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and household incomes and increasing the prevalence of poverty. Using an updated economywide database for Sudan, we ran an analysis of the likely economic impact of a continuation of the conflict through to the end of 2024 using two scenarios of extreme and moderate reductions in overall GDP. These reductions are triggered mainly by the ongoing conflict, which is causing additional cuts in the operations of business services and continuing disruptions to wholesale and retail services and manufacturing. The results of the analysis show a 47 percent decline in Sudan’s GDP under the extreme reduction scenario and a 13 percent decline under the moderate scenario relative to 2022 before the conflict began. Under the extreme scenario, the agrifood system GDP falls by 26 percent and employment by 50 percent, with non-farm jobs being more adversely affected. Household incomes decline significantly across all quintiles and in both rural and urban areas, with urban and richer households facing slightly higher reductions. Less-educated labor categories are severely affected, while tertiary-educated labor shows relative resilience. Poverty rates have surged, particularly in rural areas and among women, with the national poverty rate estimated to have increased by 21 percentage points under the extreme reduction scenario. To mitigate the widespread adverse impacts of the conflict on the Sudanese economy and foster long-term resilience, policies and interventions should prioritize the restoration of economic productivity, provide support for the agrifood system and employment recovery strategies, and ensure that social protection measures are accessible to all households facing increased deprivation.