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Who we are

With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Liangzhi You

Liangzhi You is a Senior Research Fellow and theme leader in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, based in Washington, DC. His research focuses on climate resilience, spatial data and analytics, agroecosystems, and agricultural science policy. Gridded crop production data of the world (SPAM) and the agricultural technology evaluation model (DREAM) are among his research contributions. 

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IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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Unit

Foresight and Policy Modeling

Klaten Indonesia. October 26th 2020 . Rice researchers in field. Students of agriculture faculty.

Agrifood systems today are increasingly interconnected, but their future is less certain than ever before. Decision-makers — both public and private — need advance information to understand the growing complexity of these systems, navigate climate uncertainty and frequent crises, and manage trade-offs between competing interests and development goals.

RESEARCH Units

Overview

The Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM) Unit’s research situates agrifood systems within global and local economies, environments, and development processes. It uses innovative analytical tools to anticipate trends at global, national, and local scales, and develops metrics to track socioeconomic and environmental outcomes at system and household levels.

The Unit’s partnerships with national research institutes around the world ensure that local knowledge, modeling capabilities, and research are collectively shared, and that decision-makers have access to improved data and analytics to help them identify technologies, policies, and investments that can drive inclusive and sustainable food systems transformation.

Areas of Focus

Future food systems

Climate change and environmental constraints make anticipating the future of food, land, and water systems complex. Global foresight analysis, conducted by FPM biophysical and economic modelers and climate change experts, looks at agriculture under different scenarios for climate change, economic growth, and technologies and practices to inform policy and investment decisions.

Inclusive transformation

Forward planning and policy prioritization are essential for national governments, especially because competing goals and limited budgets make trade-offs across goals unavoidable. FPM development economists conduct country economywide modeling of agrifood system transformation and development pathways that can support prioritization of cost-effective policies amid climate change and other risks.  

Local development needs

Policies and technologies for sustainable development must be suitably targeted and tailored to local contexts. To identify local market opportunities and priorities for particular populations and regions, FPM geographers and data scientists use spatial analysis and modeling of agroclimatic conditions and risks, based on remote sensing and high-resolution datasets.

Tools and methods

FPM maintains and employs a suite of models for policy analysis and forecasting, including the IMPACT model of global agriculture and trade; the RIAPA model and surveys used to track national and household poverty, employment, diets, and inequality; and the SPAM database and economic models that track local development.

Explore our research

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Brief

IFPRI Nexus SAMs: Annual Release Note 2024

2024Randriamamonjy, Josee; Jones, Eleanor; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James
Details

IFPRI Nexus SAMs: Annual Release Note 2024

The Nexus Project is pleased to provide an update on the Nexus Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) developed and released by IFPRI in collaboration with national statistical agencies and research institutions in 2024. This Annual Release Note provides a brief overview of SAMs and the Nexus Project. It serves as a useful one-stop shop for obtaining links to the latest versions of all Nexus SAMs. For more information or questions, please email IFPRI-Nexus@cgiar.or

Year published

2024

Authors

Randriamamonjy, Josee; Jones, Eleanor; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James

Citation

Randriamamonjy, Josee; Jones, Eleanor; Pauw, Karl; and Thurlow, James. 2024. IFPRI Nexus SAMs: Annual Release Note 2024. IFPRI Project Note December 2024. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Keywords

Data; Economic Sectors; Agrifood Systems; Databases; Computable General Equilibrium Models

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

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Working Paper

What are the economic and poverty implications for Sudan if the conflict continues through 2024?

2024Ahmed, Mosab; Raouf, Mariam; Siddig, Khalid
Details

What are the economic and poverty implications for Sudan if the conflict continues through 2024?

The conflict in Sudan, which started in April 2023, has led to severe economic repercussions, sharply reducing the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and household incomes and increasing the prevalence of poverty. Using an updated economywide database for Sudan, we ran an analysis of the likely economic impact of a continuation of the conflict through to the end of 2024 using two scenarios of extreme and moderate reductions in overall GDP. These reductions are triggered mainly by the ongoing conflict, which is causing additional cuts in the operations of business services and continuing disruptions to wholesale and retail services and manufacturing. The results of the analysis show a 47 percent decline in Sudan’s GDP under the extreme reduction scenario and a 13 percent decline under the moderate scenario relative to 2022 before the conflict began. Under the extreme scenario, the agrifood system GDP falls by 26 percent and employment by 50 percent, with non-farm jobs being more adversely affected. Household incomes decline significantly across all quintiles and in both rural and urban areas, with urban and richer households facing slightly higher reductions. Less-educated labor categories are severely affected, while tertiary-educated labor shows relative resilience. Poverty rates have surged, particularly in rural areas and among women, with the national poverty rate estimated to have increased by 21 percentage points under the extreme reduction scenario. To mitigate the widespread adverse impacts of the conflict on the Sudanese economy and foster long-term resilience, policies and interventions should prioritize the restoration of economic productivity, provide support for the agrifood system and employment recovery strategies, and ensure that social protection measures are accessible to all households facing increased deprivation.

Year published

2024

Authors

Ahmed, Mosab; Raouf, Mariam; Siddig, Khalid

Citation

Ahmed, Mosab; Raouf, Mariam; and Siddig, Khalid. 2024. What are the economic and poverty implications for Sudan if the conflict continues through 2024? Sudan Strategy Support Program Working Paper 20. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Northern Africa; Conflicts; Economic Impact; Employment; Income; Poverty; Agrifood Systems; Resilience; Social Protection

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

Impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in Sudan: Agricultural bounce-back, infrastructural investment, and social protection

2024Siddig, Khalid; Thurlow, James; Ahmed, Mosab; Randriamamonjy, Josée; Raouf, Mariam
Details

Impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in Sudan: Agricultural bounce-back, infrastructural investment, and social protection

In response to the 2023 conflict in Sudan and its extensive socio-economic repercussions, this study investigates the resultant economic, poverty, and undernourishment impacts, using an economywide model for in-depth analysis at national and household levels. The study also seeks to identify effective recovery pathways that can mitigate the adverse impacts of the conflict, with a particular focus on the role of the agricultural sector. Key findings reveal significant economic contractions across all scenarios, with the GDP experiencing a reduction of up to 12% and 18% following estimates by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 2023. These estimates are included in an economywide framework, linked to a microsimulation module as major war scenarios, namely, Moderate decline & slow recovery and Sharp decline & rapid recovery, respectively. Poverty rates are projected to increase by 8 and 11.6 percentage points, affecting an additional 2.7 and 3.9 million people in the two scenarios, respectively. Undernourishment is also expected to rise significantly, with an increase of 3.9 and 6.0 percentage points, adding approximately 1.3 and 2.0 million people to those affected in the two scenarios, respectively. The analysis proposes recovery strategies that emphasize agricultural productivity, infrastructure investment, and social protection measures. By simulating enhanced agricultural productivity scenarios, the study suggests that poverty could decrease notably, with potential reductions in the poor population by as much as 1.9 million by 2028. This study underscores the urgency of coordinated policy efforts and international support to mitigate the adverse impacts of the conflict, providing a strategic roadmap for recovery initiatives aimed at sustainable development and stability in Sudan.

Year published

2024

Authors

Siddig, Khalid; Thurlow, James; Ahmed, Mosab; Randriamamonjy, Josée; Raouf, Mariam

Citation

Siddig, Khalid; Thurlow, James; Ahmed, Mosab; Randriamamonjy, Josée; and Raouf, Mariam. 2024. Impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in Sudan: Agricultural bounce-back, infrastructural investment, and social protection. Sudan Strategy Support Program Working Paper 21. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Northern Africa; Conflicts; Economic Impact; Poverty; Nutrition; Agricultural Sector; Social Protection; Infrastructure

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Working Paper

Datasets

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Dataset

2022 Social Accounting Matrix for Ghana

2024International Food Policy Research Institute
Details

2022 Social Accounting Matrix for Ghana

The 2022 Ghana Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI’s Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI’s website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

Year published

2024

Authors

International Food Policy Research Institute

Citation

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 2024. 2022 Social Accounting Matrix for Ghana. Washington, DC: IFPRI [dataset]. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/OPGYHL. Harvard Dataverse. Version 1.

Country/Region

Ghana

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Western Africa; Macroeconomic Analysis; National Accounting; Household Consumption; Household Expenditure; Taxes; Economic Indicators; Labour; Sex-disaggregated Data

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.7910/dvn/opgyhl Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Dataset

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Dataset

2021 Social Accounting Matrix for Nigeria

2024International Food Policy Research Institute
Details

2021 Social Accounting Matrix for Nigeria

The 2021 Nigeria Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI’s Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI’s website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

Year published

2024

Authors

International Food Policy Research Institute

Citation

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 2023. 2021 Social Accounting Matrix for Nigeria. Washington, DC: IFPRI [dataset]. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/095UBP. Harvard Dataverse. Version 1.

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Southern Africa; Western Africa; Macroeconomic Analysis; National Accounting; Household Consumption; Household Expenditure; Economic Indicators; Labour; Sex-disaggregated Data

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.7910/dvn/095ubp Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Dataset

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Dataset

2019 Social Accounting Matrix for Ghana

2023Ghana Statistical Services; International Food Policy Research Institute; Institute for Statistical, Social, and Economic Research
Details

2019 Social Accounting Matrix for Ghana

The Nexus Project is a collaboration between IFPRI and its partners, including national statistical agencies and research institutions. Our aim is to improve the quality of social accounting matrices (SAMs) used for computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. The Nexus Project develops toolkits and establishes common data standards, procedures, and classification systems for constructing and updating national SAMs. The 2019 Ghana SAM follows the Standard Nexus Structure. The open access version of the Ghana SAM separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital. Labor is further disaggregated across three education categories. Representative households are disaggregated by rural and urban areas and by per capita expenditure quintile. The remaining accounts include enterprises, government, taxes, savings-and-investment, and the rest of the word.

Year published

2023

Authors

Ghana Statistical Services; International Food Policy Research Institute; Institute for Statistical, Social, and Economic Research

Citation

Ghana Statistical Services (GSS); Institute for Statistical, Social, and Economic Research (ISSER); International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 2023. 2019 Social Accounting Matrix for Ghana. Washington, DC: IFPRI [Dataset]. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/AC7CKV. Harvard Dataverse. Version 1.

Country/Region

Ghana

Keywords

Western Africa; Social Accounting Matrix; Household Consumption; Household Expenditure; Taxes; Economic Indicators; Labor; Sex-disaggregated Data

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.7910/dvn/ac7ckv Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Dataset

Blogs

From crisis to recovery: How CGIAR’s BRIGHT Survey can catalyze evidence-based policy reforms in Sri Lanka
IFPRI Blog
 | 
December 20, 2024

From crisis to recovery: How CGIAR’s BRIGHT Survey can catalyze evidence-based policy reforms in Sri Lanka

By Derek Headey, Joanna van Asselt, Olivier Ecker, and Jean Balié

Research can shape a new government’s decision-making.

A shock to the (food) system: Using new IFPRI tools to evaluate household food security outcomes
IFPRI Blog
 | 
December 10, 2024

A shock to the (food) system: Using new IFPRI tools to evaluate household food security outcomes

By Andrew Comstock, Olivier Ecker, and Eleanor Jones

Simulating impacts of crisis and responses.

From risk to resilience: How strategic government partnerships can enhance access to insurance-linked credit for smallholders in Zambia
IFPRI Blog
 | 
November 07, 2024

From risk to resilience: How strategic government partnerships can enhance access to insurance-linked credit for smallholders in Zambia

By Martina Mascarenhas, Anne G. Timu, and Liangzhi You

The power of bundled solutions

View all Blogs

News

November 26, 2023 | In the News

Scientists are racing to protect grass from climate change. Your cheap burger is at stake (Wall Street Journal)

Wall Street Journal (Australia) quotes Keith Wiebe, IFPRI senior research fellow, in an article analyzing how heat waves and drought are threatening pasture on farms worldwide.  “If pasture becomes less productive, prices would be expected to rise, not just for meat, wool and dairy products but also for cereals and other food commodities that would […]

Events

The Pulse of Progress: Harnessing High-Frequency Survey Data for Development Research in the Polycrisis Era
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

December 17 to 18, 2024

The Pulse of Progress: Harnessing High-Frequency Survey Data for Development Research in the Polycrisis Era

The Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS), the World Bank’s flagship household survey program, and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) are co-organizing a conference, The Pulse of Progress: Harnessing High-Frequency Survey Data for Development Research in the Polycrisis Era, which will take place on December 17-18, 2024, at the World Bank Headquarters in Washington, […]

How can we improve global crop mapping? IFPRI’s Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM)
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

November 21, 2024, 11:00 – 12:00 pm

How can we improve global crop mapping? IFPRI’s Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM)

Accessibility to consistent, subnational, spatial information on crops globally will be hugely beneficial to  researchers and policy makers. Researchers need this data to evaluate the benefits and costs of adopting new crop and livestock technologies, estimate the impact of climate change on agriculture calculate yield gaps, and analyze the historical evolution of farming systems. Policymakers, […]

Building Resilience, Inclusive Growth, and Holistic Transformation in Sri Lanka
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

November 21, 2024, 9:00 – 10:30 am

Building Resilience, Inclusive Growth, and Holistic Transformation in Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka has experienced slow progress in job creation, poverty reduction, and food insecurity, especially in rural areas. Economic challenges are further compounded by climate change risks and vulnerability to global shocks. At the same time, Sri Lanka has immense potential in agriculture and agro-processing, critical needs for infrastructure development, and a large scope for […]

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Recent Work

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Essential Reading
The Russia-Ukraine Conflict & Global Food Security
The Russia-Ukraine conflict and global food security

The Russia-Ukraine conflict and global food security

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, sparking fears of a global food crisis, IFPRI responded rapidly to the need for information and policy advice to address the crisis. From the first moments of the conflict, a new IFPRI blog series provided critical information and insights into the impacts on food security, caused by rising food, fertilizer, and fuel prices and trade disruptions, for vulnerable countries and regions. This book is a compilation of those blog posts, which include analysis of trade flows, tracking of food prices and policy responses, and results of impact modeling. Together, they provide an overview of how the crisis has progressed, how the international community and individual countries responded with efforts to ensure food security, and what we are learning about the best ways to ensure food security in the aftermath of a major shock to global food systems.

Year published

2023

Project

Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI); Food and Nutrition Policy

Engaging women's groups to improve nutrition
Engaging women’s groups to improve nutrition: Findings from an evaluation of the Jeevika multisectoral convergence pilot in Saharsa, Bihar

Engaging women’s groups to improve nutrition: Findings from an evaluation of the Jeevika multisectoral convergence pilot in Saharsa, Bihar

This report presents the endline findings of an impact evaluation of the JEEViKA Multisectoral Convergence pilot, designed as an effectiveness trial, in one district in Bihar, India. JEEViKA, a rural livelihoods project, supports self-help groups (SHGs) – savings and credit-based groups of about 15-20 women, mostly targeted toward those from poor households – with the aim of improving their livelihoods and enhancing household incomes. The JEEViKA Multisectoral Convergence (JEEViKA-MC) pilot went a step further, leveraging these SHGs to address the immediate and underlying determinants of undernutrition among women and children. The multisectoral convergence model, developed by the Bihar Rural Livelihoods Promotion Society with technical support from the World Bank, was piloted in 12 Gram Panchayats of Saharsa district in Bihar. Two complementary sets of interventions-health and nutrition behavior change communication (BCC) to improve women’s knowledge and household practices, and efforts to improve service access through convergence -were layered onto the existing core package of JEEViKA activities and were targeted to women who were members of the SHGs already formed by JEEViKA. Within this target population, households with young children, mothers of young children, and pregnant women were the primary focus of the JEEViKA-MC pilot.

Year published

2019

Project

PHND; A4NH

show me what you eat
Show me what you eat: Assessing diets remotely through pictures

Show me what you eat: Assessing diets remotely through pictures

Goal: Using real-time smartphone meal pictures sent by rural or urban households to better monitor and assess the quality of their diets, and provide tailored recommendations to improve them. Detailed information on household and individual dietary intake is crucial for adequate nutritional monitoring and designing interventions to improve diets. Common recall-based methods are generally time consuming, costly, and subject to non-negligible measurement errors and potential biases. In addition, the scope of information that can be obtained in a regular survey is typically limited. Detailed diaries, in turn, are effort- and time-intensive and prone to errors. With increasing mobile penetration in both urban and rural areas, meal pictures can overcome some of these difficulties, providing real-time, detailed food intake information of individuals remotely and at a minimal cost. Moreover, pictures can be obtained over extended periods of time, beyond the standard short spans (i.e. 24-hours) in recall survey questions, with little to no data quality loss. Such rich consumption data can help identify and better understand vulnerabilities and nutritional imbalances —including specific macronutrient or micronutrient gaps or excesses—, and open the door for low-cost, individually tailored digital interventions to promote healthier diets. Moreover, crowdsourced data allow to identify locally available, affordable foods rich in specific nutrients consumed by similar households in the area. Interventions, in turn, can be delivered through text messages, interactive voice response (IVR), or phone calls, or videos or interactive games integrated into an app, benefitting from a two-way communication channel with individuals.

Year published

2021

Project

MTID

Our experts

Channing Arndt

Channing Arndt

Senior Director, Transformation Strategies, CGIAR and IFPRI, Development
Strategies and Governance, Foresight and Policy Modeling, Natural Resources and Resilience, Innovation Policy and Scaling

James Thurlow

James Thurlow

Director, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM), Foresight
and Policy Modeling

Zhe Guo

Zhe Guo

Senior GIS Coordinator, Foresight
and Policy Modeling

Anne G. Timu

Anne G. Timu

Associate Research Fellow, Foresight
and Policy Modeling

Yumei Zhang

Yumei Zhang

Nonresident Fellow, Foresight
and Policy Modeling

Peixun Fang

Peixun Fang

Senior Research Analyst, Foresight
and Policy Modeling