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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Emily Schmidt

Emily Schmidt is a Senior Research Fellow in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit. Her most recent research explores household livelihood strategies in Papua New Guinea, including linkages between agriculture, poverty, and nutrition outcomes among rural smallholder farmers.

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Unit

Foresight and Policy Modeling

Klaten Indonesia. October 26th 2020 . Rice researchers in field. Students of agriculture faculty.

Agrifood systems today are increasingly interconnected, but their future is less certain than ever before. Decision-makers — both public and private — need advance information to understand the growing complexity of these systems, navigate climate uncertainty and frequent crises, and manage trade-offs between competing interests and development goals.

RESEARCH Units

Overview

The Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM) Unit’s research situates agrifood systems within global and local economies, environments, and development processes. It uses innovative analytical tools to anticipate trends at global, national, and local scales, and develops metrics to track socioeconomic and environmental outcomes at system and household levels.

The Unit’s partnerships with national research institutes around the world ensure that local knowledge, modeling capabilities, and research are collectively shared, and that decision-makers have access to improved data and analytics to help them identify technologies, policies, and investments that can drive inclusive and sustainable food systems transformation.

Areas of Focus

Future food systems

Climate change and environmental constraints make anticipating the future of food, land, and water systems complex. Global foresight analysis, conducted by FPM biophysical and economic modelers and climate change experts, looks at agriculture under different scenarios for climate change, economic growth, and technologies and practices to inform policy and investment decisions.

Inclusive transformation

Forward planning and policy prioritization are essential for national governments, especially because competing goals and limited budgets make trade-offs across goals unavoidable. FPM development economists conduct country economywide modeling of agrifood system transformation and development pathways that can support prioritization of cost-effective policies amid climate change and other risks.  

Local development needs

Policies and technologies for sustainable development must be suitably targeted and tailored to local contexts. To identify local market opportunities and priorities for particular populations and regions, FPM geographers and data scientists use spatial analysis and modeling of agroclimatic conditions and risks, based on remote sensing and high-resolution datasets.

Tools and methods

FPM maintains and employs a suite of models for policy analysis and forecasting, including the IMPACT model of global agriculture and trade; the RIAPA model and surveys used to track national and household poverty, employment, diets, and inequality; and the SPAM database and economic models that track local development.

Explore our research

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Journal Article

Potential decarbonization for balancing local and non-local perishable food supply in megacities

2025Lin, Xintao; Qian, Jianping; Chen, Jian; Yu, Qiangyi; You, Liangzhi; Chen, Qian; Li, Jiali; Xiao, Pengnan; Jiang, Jingyi
Details

Potential decarbonization for balancing local and non-local perishable food supply in megacities

Ensuring urban food security while reducing carbon emissions from food systems is a key challenge. Food localization can reduce transport emissions; however, its role in agricultural production emissions reductions is unclear. Here, we explored the effects of localization of seven perishables, incorporating emissions from production and cold-chain logistics, in Beijing and Shanghai, China; determined decarbonization under different scenarios by increasing or decreasing the localization, with or without constrains, of each food category (balancing strategy). The results show that every 1% increase in the localization of vegetables, poultry, and aquatic products decreased 2020 emissions by 0.4–1.9 tCO2e, but for beef and lamb, it increased emissions by 0.2–2.9 tCO2e. Localization decreased cold-chain emission shares for all foods. The balancing strategy with constraints reduced emissions by 0.76 MtCO2e (5%) and 0.44 MtCO2e (2%) in 2020 in Beijing and Shanghai, respectively. Utilizing urban agriculture at all costs (i.e., without constraints) further reduced emissions by a factor of 3–4. Over 90% of Beijing’s emissions added by 2035 under the business-as-usual scenario were projected to be offset by the strategy. In Shanghai, the strategy could reduce emissions by an additional 0.44 MtCO2e. The results indicate that expanding imports of carbon-intensive ruminant meat to replace local production and reallocating urban resources to vegetables, poultry, and aquatic products could lead to more sustainable food supplies in megacities. Further development of cold-chain logistics is expected to reduce emissions in synergy with the balancing strategy. Our results could help inform better food system planning in megacities.

Year published

2025

Authors

Lin, Xintao; Qian, Jianping; Chen, Jian; Yu, Qiangyi; You, Liangzhi; Chen, Qian; Li, Jiali; Xiao, Pengnan; Jiang, Jingyi

Citation

Lin, Xintao; Qian, Jianping; Chen, Jian; Yu, Qiangyi; You, Liangzhi; Chen, Qian; et al. 2025. Potential decarbonization for balancing local and non-local perishable food supply in megacities. Resources, Environment and Sustainability 20(June 2025): 100206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resenv.2025.100206

Country/Region

China

Keywords

Asia; Eastern Asia; Food Security; Urban Areas; Agricultural Production; Emission; Carbon; Cold Chains

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-NC-ND-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resenv.2025.100206 Source record

Project

Climate Resilience

Record type

Journal Article

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Brief

Synopsis: The dynamic impact of alternative livestock sector interventions and spending options in Rwanda

2025Aragie, Emerta A.; Bahta, Sirak T.; Baltenweck, Isabelle; Enahoro, Dolapo K.; Karugia, Joseph T.; Thurlow, James; Warner, James
Details

Synopsis: The dynamic impact of alternative livestock sector interventions and spending options in Rwanda

This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of various livestock interventions—feed, breeding, and health—and budget allocation strategies (balanced, feed-oriented, breeding-oriented, and health oriented) in the context of Rwanda’s economic and livestock systems. Using an economic and livestock systems integrated framework, the research highlights moderate yet sustained impacts on agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and significant improvements in the livestock sector. Breeding interventions have the largest cumulative effect on agricultural GDP, while health measures, particularly dewormers, yield long-term gains in livestock productivity. Under the balanced scenario, breeding contributes significantly to both meat and milk sector GDP, while feed interventions show a smaller impact overall. The model estimates the economic and livestock systems over a period of five years (t1-t5) from a base year at t0, which corresponds to the Fifth Structural Transformation in Agriculture (PSTA5) period.

Year published

2025

Authors

Aragie, Emerta A.; Bahta, Sirak T.; Baltenweck, Isabelle; Enahoro, Dolapo K.; Karugia, Joseph T.; Thurlow, James; Warner, James

Citation

Aragie, Emerta; Bahta, Sirak; Baltenweck, Isabelle; Enahoro, Dolapo; Karugia, Joseph; Thurlow, James; and Warner, James. 2025. Synopsis: The dynamic impact of alternative livestock sector interventions and spending options in Rwanda. Rwanda SSP Policy Note 20. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Rwanda

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Livestock; Budgets; Economic Aspects; Agriculture; Agricultural Productivity

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Brief

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Working Paper

Tajikistan’s agrifood system: The past performance and future opportunities and challenges

2025Diao, Xinshen; Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Aliev, Jovidon; Fang, Peixun; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James
Details

Tajikistan’s agrifood system: The past performance and future opportunities and challenges

This study analyzes the past performance and future opportunities and challenges of Tajikistan’s agrifood system (AFS). The study measures the current size and structure of AFS and its historical contribution to economic growth and transformation through a data-driven exercise. A forward-looking economywide model is used to assess the effectiveness of future AFS growth (led by agricultural productivity gains in different value chains) in promoting multiple development outcomes. The findings of the study indicate that AFS transformation is an important part of Tajikistan’s economic transformation and structural change. Because of lower growth contributions from AFS’s off-farm components as well as fewer farm workers moving from primary agriculture to off-farm activities within AFS, Tajikistan’s AFS did not grow as quickly as the broader economy. Expanding off-farm activities to boost on-farm productivity growth remains a challenge for sustainable transformation of Tajikistan’s AFS. Using an economywide model, we find that there is no single value chain group that would most effectively achieve all desired development outcomes including broad economic growth, job creation, declining poverty, and improved diets. Livestock value chains, however, have the most potential to contribute to multiple development outcomes, particularly to dietary improvement, and these value chains also performed impressively during the study period. Moreover, most cattle and ruminants are owned by household farms, and their growth could contribute to broader agricultural transformation. The maize value chain also ranks high in the model-based comparison, but it seems to only modestly contribute to job creation and diet quality and had performed disappointingly during the study period. While growth in livestock and maize value chains face a series of challenges and constraints, promoting them together seems to offer an effective way to broadly achieve important development outcomes.

Year published

2025

Authors

Diao, Xinshen; Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Aliev, Jovidon; Fang, Peixun; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James

Citation

Diao, Xinshen; Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur; Aliev, Jovidon; Fang, Peixun; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Pauw, Karl; and Thurlow, James. 2025. Tajikistan’s agrifood system: The past performance and future opportunities and challenges. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2329. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173731

Country/Region

Tajikistan

Keywords

Asia; Central Asia; Agrifood Systems; Diet; Economic Growth; Poverty

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Working Paper

Datasets

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Dataset

2022 Social Accounting Matrix for Ghana

2024International Food Policy Research Institute
Details

2022 Social Accounting Matrix for Ghana

The 2022 Ghana Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI’s Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI’s website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

Year published

2024

Authors

International Food Policy Research Institute

Citation

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 2024. 2022 Social Accounting Matrix for Ghana. Washington, DC: IFPRI [dataset]. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/OPGYHL. Harvard Dataverse. Version 1.

Country/Region

Ghana

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Western Africa; Macroeconomic Analysis; National Accounting; Household Consumption; Household Expenditure; Taxes; Economic Indicators; Labour; Sex-disaggregated Data

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.7910/dvn/opgyhl Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Dataset

Resource thumbnail

Dataset

2021 Social Accounting Matrix for Nigeria

2024International Food Policy Research Institute
Details

2021 Social Accounting Matrix for Nigeria

The 2021 Nigeria Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) follows IFPRI’s Standard Nexus SAM approach, by focusing on consistency, comparability, and transparency of data. The Nexus SAMs available on IFPRI’s website separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital, with labor further disaggregated across three education-based categories. The household account is divided into 10 representative household groups: Rural and urban households across per capita consumption quintiles. Nexus SAMs support the improvement of model-based research and policy analysis in developing countries and allow for more robust cross-country comparisons of national economic structures, especially agriculture-food systems.

Year published

2024

Authors

International Food Policy Research Institute

Citation

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 2023. 2021 Social Accounting Matrix for Nigeria. Washington, DC: IFPRI [dataset]. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/095UBP. Harvard Dataverse. Version 1.

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Southern Africa; Western Africa; Macroeconomic Analysis; National Accounting; Household Consumption; Household Expenditure; Economic Indicators; Labour; Sex-disaggregated Data

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.7910/dvn/095ubp Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Dataset

Resource thumbnail

Dataset

2019 Social Accounting Matrix for Ghana

2023Ghana Statistical Services; Institute for Statistical, Social, and Economic Research; International Food Policy Research Institute
Details

2019 Social Accounting Matrix for Ghana

The Nexus Project is a collaboration between IFPRI and its partners, including national statistical agencies and research institutions. Our aim is to improve the quality of social accounting matrices (SAMs) used for computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling. The Nexus Project develops toolkits and establishes common data standards, procedures, and classification systems for constructing and updating national SAMs. The 2019 Ghana SAM follows the Standard Nexus Structure. The open access version of the Ghana SAM separates domestic production into 42 activities. Factors are disaggregated into labor, agricultural land, and capital. Labor is further disaggregated across three education categories. Representative households are disaggregated by rural and urban areas and by per capita expenditure quintile. The remaining accounts include enterprises, government, taxes, savings-and-investment, and the rest of the word.

Year published

2023

Authors

Ghana Statistical Services; Institute for Statistical, Social, and Economic Research; International Food Policy Research Institute

Citation

Ghana Statistical Services (GSS); Institute for Statistical, Social, and Economic Research (ISSER); International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 2023. 2019 Social Accounting Matrix for Ghana. Washington, DC: IFPRI [dataset]. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/AC7CKV. Harvard Dataverse. Version 1.

Country/Region

Ghana

Keywords

Western Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Africa; National Accounting; Household Consumption; Household Expenditure; Taxes; Economic Indicators; Labour

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.7910/dvn/ac7ckv Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Dataset

Blogs

From space to soil: Advancing crop mapping and ecosystem insights for smallholder agriculture in Kenya
IFPRI Blog
 | 
December 31, 2024

From space to soil: Advancing crop mapping and ecosystem insights for smallholder agriculture in Kenya

By Zhe Guo, Upeksha Hettiarachchi, and Wei Zhang

Using machine learning to track land use.

From crisis to recovery: How CGIAR’s BRIGHT Survey can catalyze evidence-based policy reforms in Sri Lanka
IFPRI Blog
 | 
December 20, 2024

From crisis to recovery: How CGIAR’s BRIGHT Survey can catalyze evidence-based policy reforms in Sri Lanka

By Derek Headey, Joanna van Asselt, Olivier Ecker, and Jean Balié

Research can shape a new government’s decision-making.

A shock to the (food) system: Using new IFPRI tools to evaluate household food security outcomes
IFPRI Blog
 | 
December 10, 2024

A shock to the (food) system: Using new IFPRI tools to evaluate household food security outcomes

By Andrew Comstock, Olivier Ecker, and Eleanor Jones

Simulating impacts of crisis and responses.

View all Blogs

News

November 26, 2023 | In the News

Scientists are racing to protect grass from climate change. Your cheap burger is at stake (Wall Street Journal)

Wall Street Journal (Australia) quotes Keith Wiebe, IFPRI senior research fellow, in an article analyzing how heat waves and drought are threatening pasture on farms worldwide.  “If pasture becomes less productive, prices would be expected to rise, not just for meat, wool and dairy products but also for cereals and other food commodities that would […]

Events

How Can We Improve Food Security Monitoring in Conflict-Affected Regions? Machine Learning for Spatially Granular Food Security Mapping
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

March 25, 2025, 9:30 – 10:30 am

How Can We Improve Food Security Monitoring in Conflict-Affected Regions? Machine Learning for Spatially Granular Food Security Mapping

Machine learning is transforming agricultural and food security research, enabling more accurate and timely insights. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) is advancing data-driven approaches in various domains, including crop-type mapping, maize yield estimation, and boat detection. These innovations demonstrate the potential of machine learning in addressing complex challenges and informing policy decisions. A […]

Informing Economic Growth and Food Security Opportunities in Papua New Guinea
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

March 21, 2025, 9:00 – 5:30 pm

Informing Economic Growth and Food Security Opportunities in Papua New Guinea

The International Food Policy Research Institute, in collaboration with Department of Prime Minister and National Executive Council, Department of Agriculture and Livestock, Department of Health and the Department of National Planning and Monitoring, will host a research seminar on “Informing Economic Growth and Food Security Opportunities in Papua New Guinea”, on March 21st, 2025. As […]

The Pulse of Progress: Harnessing High-Frequency Survey Data for Development Research in the Polycrisis Era
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

December 17 to 18, 2024

The Pulse of Progress: Harnessing High-Frequency Survey Data for Development Research in the Polycrisis Era

The Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS), the World Bank’s flagship household survey program, and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) are co-organizing a conference, The Pulse of Progress: Harnessing High-Frequency Survey Data for Development Research in the Polycrisis Era, which will take place on December 17-18, 2024, at the World Bank Headquarters in Washington, […]

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Recent Work

Our experts

James Thurlow

James Thurlow

Director, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM), Foresight
and Policy Modeling

Luis Escalante

Luis Escalante

Associate Research Fellow, Foresight
and Policy Modeling, Latin America and the Caribbean

Karl Pauw

Karl Pauw

Senior Research Fellow, Foresight
and Policy Modeling

Yumei Zhang

Yumei Zhang

Nonresident Fellow, Foresight
and Policy Modeling

Xuan Chen

Xuan Chen

Research Analyst, Foresight
and Policy Modeling